If the Bills go "All In" for Marvin Harrison JR, How would you feel?

[Forward_Lateral]

Let's say the chips fell, and MHJ was still sitting there, somehow, at Arizona's pick.

If the Bills traded up to 5 by giving up 28, 60, next year's 1st and 2nd and drafted Marv JR, what would you do?

I'm not saying they should, would or even could, but what if they did?

[Jaybird]

No.. that’s giving up too much for a WR. Especially since it’s 50/50 in the first round

This draft is suppose to be deep at the position. We can draft 2 WR thought the draft.

[notacon]

Nice thought exercise.

Kinda like asking how I would "feel" if Margot Robbie offered herself to me like she did to Jordan Belfort in Wolf of Wall Street. :D: Except the chances the Bills get Harrison are a LOT better. :rolleyes:

I believe the chances of Harrison getting past Arizona at #4 is almost nil. So, it's more or less moot to opine how I would "feel".

I'll wait until the draft comes with what the Bills actually do before I "feel" anything.

[YardRat]

I would think it's just another one of Beane's splash moves that won't work out as expected and we'll go another 4-5 years without sniffing a championship.

[kgun12]

No thank you, too much! Even if we were just a WR away I’d still have to think about it, but with all the positions we need to fill or replenish. No player is a “sure thing”

[Mad Max]

Let's say the chips fell, and MHJ was still sitting there, somehow, at Arizona's pick.

If the Bills traded up to 5 by giving up 28, 60, next year's 1st and 2nd and drafted Marv JR, what would you do?

I'm not saying they should, would or even could, but what if they did?

I wouldn’t like it. AT. ALL.

We’ve been down this road before and it hasn’t ended well. Sammy, CJ.

If the WR was our only hole I’d consider it but with the number of holes we have and the depth of this WR class I want to stand pat or trade DOWN for more ammo.

[Forward_Lateral]

I wouldn't be mad, if the price wasn't insane.

I do not know what the pick value would be. I'd imagine at least 28, next year's 1st and 2nd, plus probably more

[OpIv37]

We went all in for Von Miller. How’d that work out?

WR’s aren’t that hard to find. After all the bloodletting this year, this team has too many holes to spend that many picks on one player.

[TheConsigliere]

NO THANK YOU

[Forward_Lateral]

We went all in for Von Miller. How’d that work out?

WR’s aren’t that hard to find. After all the bloodletting this year, this team has too many holes to spend that many picks on one player.

They didn't go all in for Miller. They gave up nothing but money.

The question wasn't about Von Miller. It was about MHJ.

Can you ever answer a topic without some kind of passive aggressive complainin?

[Novacane]

That would piss me off!

[Woodman]

DEFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE NO MATTER WHAT!

[Historian]

Pass.

[DetoxTent]

Let's say the chips fell, and MHJ was still sitting there, somehow, at Arizona's pick.

If the Bills traded up to 5 by giving up 28, 60, next year's 1st and 2nd and drafted Marv JR, what would you do?
I'm not saying they should, would or even could, but what if they did?

No. That's stupid. You don't mortgage the team's future for a frigging WR. This is a stupid idea. The Bills won't do that. Pre-draft nonsense.

[Mad Max]

I wouldn't be mad, if the price wasn't insane.

I do not know what the pick value would be. I'd imagine at least 28, next year's 1st and 2nd, plus probably more

The thing is the price most certainly would be insanely high. No one would trade up to top 5 for what it will cost unless they were chasing someone they thought would turn into a Franchise QB. A WR? Zero Chance.

[sukie]

Bills will be feasting and living on players on rookie deals. They need the picks more that Harrison.

[OpIv37]

They didn't go all in for Miller. They gave up nothing but money.

The question wasn't about Von Miller. It was about MHJ.

Can you ever answer a topic without some kind of passive aggressive complainin?
Weird revisionist history. Von’s contract is the reason for the bloodletting this offseason and the reason we can’t afford multiple picks for a WR.

[sukie]

So you wanted to resign Poyer Hyde and Tre if Von was gone?

[DraftBoy]

That Beane is getting desperate if he’s willing to risk his job this way.

[sukie]

31mil dead cap has nothing to do with Von.

[Mace]

I'd be upset...."all in" did not work and we need the picks we'd spend to ger young cheaper impact talent. We need to restock.

That said, the 2nd for Diggs next year is burning a hole in Beane's pocket and he's trading up to some extent ... Can't help himself... that's why we don't have draft talent pipeline pushing fa starters and pay for bargain bin slap patch starters.

[justasportsfan]

I'd rather use all our picks on receivers than go all in in one guy.

[Forward_Lateral]

Weird revisionist history. Von’s contract is the reason for the bloodletting this offseason and the reason we can’t afford multiple picks for a WR.

Diggs’ contract is much more of a hindernace than Vons. Again, this was about the draft, not Von Miller

[Forward_Lateral]

Weird revisionist history. Von’s contract is the reason for the bloodletting this offseason and the reason we can’t afford multiple picks for a WR.


I'd rather use all our picks on receivers than go all in in one guy.

Fair.

Again I’m not saying I think they should, but I have a feeling they will move up significantly for a WR. Do I think they’ll pull a Ditka? No. But there’s been more than one talking head saying MHJ is going to be a Bill

[OpIv37]

31mil dead cap has nothing to do with Von.

31 mil in dead cap is only a tiny fraction of this year’s cap issues.

[OpIv37]

Diggs’ contract is much more of a hindernace than Vons. Again, this was about the draft, not Von Miller

Um no. All the bloodletting happened before the Diggs trade. When they signed Von, they knew this year would be cap hell and they bet the farm they’d win it before the bills came due. They failed.

And, if we didn’t have to cut so many guys due to the cap problems, trading up in the draft would be a more viable option. But all the cap cuts created a ton of holes and left the draft as the only available option to fill them. So, the initial premise of trading up for MHJ is no longer viable.

Saying “it’s just about this draft” is an insane oversimplification that does not account for the reality of the cap situation largely created by overpaying Von. You want to look at the draft as a vacuum and that’s simply not realistic.

[OpIv37]

And on a related note, we lost Diggs, Morse, White, and Poyer, and likely Hyde. We have no cap room. If we had at least one ring, no one would give a ****. Instead, it’s a rebuild in the prime of Josh’s career. And people think it’s somehow even worthy of discussion to trade virtually an entire draft for 1 WR?

There is no analytical ability or reasonable thought process involved in even invoking the question. It just makes zero sense given the reality of the team’s situation.

[notacon]

31 mil in dead cap is only a tiny fraction of this year’s cap issues.

:rofl: You can't be serous??? Well, maybe you can. Your judgement and grasp of reality has been shown to be way off the wall.

Even before the additional $4M cap hit the Bills took by trading Diggs, he had the second largest cap number of the whole team, only behind Josh Allen.

His $27M (would have if he stayed on the team) equaled 10.7% of the total cap (Josh's $303M equals 11.89%). Von Miller's 5.93% cap hit is #3. A FAR cry from 10.7%....45% LESS.

Elite franchise QB's are supposed to be the #1 cap hit on the team. Josh 11.89% ranks him #9 in the NFL and less than HALF of two relative slugs in Deshaun Watson (25.05%) and Dak Prescott (23.28%)

Diggs' $27M cap hit would have had him #4 in WR.

Sorry, but $27M (or $31M) cap hit is NOT "only a tiny fraction of this year's cap issues".

[notacon]

And on a related note, we lost Diggs, Morse, White, and Poyer, and likely Hyde. We have no cap room. If we had at least one ring, no one would give a ****. Instead, it’s a rebuild in the prime of Josh’s career. And people think it’s somehow even worthy of discussion to trade virtually an entire draft for 1 WR?

There is no analytical ability or reasonable thought process involved in even invoking the question. It just makes zero sense given the reality of the team’s situation.

Diggs - BYE-BYE. He was useless in the playoffs and not worth the headache. Getting him off the books completely going forward is a fantastic and smart cap management. Great to move on from him now, and get relatively high value in draft capital (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265560-Bills-trading-Diggs-to-texans?p=5097251&viewfull=1#post5097251).

BTW...you were one that said there was "no way to move him." (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265023-Diggs-unsure-of-future-in-Buffalo?p=5081270&viewfull=1#post5081270) two months before they did exactly that. Another one of your wonderful predictions that are worthless.

Morse - He has already been replaced and him being gone will make hardly any difference. He was aging and on the downside of his career, with a history of concussions. Good move to cut him loose.

White - damaged goods. Also on the downside of his career and will never be what he was before his two devastating injuries. His age and injury history has this a GREAT move to cut him loose.

Poyer - damaged goods. Already past the "downside of his career" but so valueless that he could only get barely above vet minimum. Another GREAT move to cut him loose.

Hyde - more damaged goods. It's no surprise that he is still a FA. Likely that he will retire. The Bills could still re-sign him (probably) for vet minimum if they deem it worth while.

The Bills DO have "cap space" coming June 1. They don't need aging expensive vets. This is NOT a "rebuild"...how dumb. The core is strong and the past few drafts have the Bills in fantastic shape with a plethora of very good players, with great upsides.

Kincaid
Torrence
James Cook
Terrel Bernard
Shakir
Benford
Rousseau
Spencer Brown

Are all solid starters that are young and (mostly) cheap.

This draft his LOADED with excellent WR prospects.

All-in-all, the Bills are in very good shape and with Josh Allen their Super Bowl window is WIDE OPEN (THIS YEAR), opposite of your sourpuss unrealistic baloney (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/264052-Outplayed-at-home-by-a-team-with-a-near-100-point-differential?p=5050576&viewfull=1#post5050576).

Just sayin'

[justasportsfan]

Diggs - BYE-BYE. He was useless in the playoffs and not worth the headache. Getting him off the books completely going forward is a fantastic and smart cap management. Great to move on from him now, and get relatively high value in draft capital (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265560-Bills-trading-Diggs-to-texans?p=5097251&viewfull=1#post5097251).

BTW...you were one that said there was "no way to move him." (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265023-Diggs-unsure-of-future-in-Buffalo?p=5081270&viewfull=1#post5081270) two months before they did exactly that. Another one of your wonderful predictions that are worthless.

Morse - He has already been replaced and him being gone will make hardly any difference. He was aging and on the downside of his career, with a history of concussions. Good move to cut him loose.

White - damaged goods. Also on the downside of his career and will never be what he was before his two devastating injuries. His age and injury history has this a GREAT move to cut him loose.

Poyer - damaged goods. Already past the "downside of his career" but so valueless that he could only get barely above vet minimum. Another GREAT move to cut him loose.

Hyde - more damaged goods. It's no surprise that he is still a FA. Likely that he will retire. The Bills could still re-sign him (probably) for vet minimum if they deem it worth while.

The Bills DO have "cap space" coming June 1. They don't need aging expensive vets. This is NOT a "rebuild"...how dumb. The core is strong and the past few drafts have the Bills in fantastic shape with a plethora of very good players, with great upsides.

Kincaid
Torrence
James Cook
Terrel Bernard
Shakir
Benford
Rousseau
Spencer Brown

Are all solid starters that are young and (mostly) cheap.

This draft his LOADED with excellent WR prospects.

All-in-all, the Bills are in very good shape and with Josh Allen their Super Bowl window is WIDE OPEN (THIS YEAR), opposite of your sourpuss unrealistic baloney (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/264052-Outplayed-at-home-by-a-team-with-a-near-100-point-differential?p=5050576&viewfull=1#post5050576).

Just sayin'

I can see where you are both coming from.
Granted that they have replacements (to your point) , none of them have proven to be better than the ones they replaced (OPivs point) .

We wont know if the young replacements are better until they play. On paper we're NOT better.

[Forward_Lateral]

I can see where you are both coming from.
Granted that they have replacements (to your point) , none of them have proven to be better than the ones they replaced (OPivs point) .

We wont know if the young replacements are better until they play. On paper we're NOT better.

They aren't really worse.

Milano will be back, so the LBs are already instantly better than last year.

Corners are a wash, as the ones they lost (Tre and Dane) didn't contribute all that much.

Safety, to me is the big question mark. Even though Po and Hyde showed their age a lot, they still played better than average. Rapp played ok in his role, but how will he do in one of the traditional safety spots? Who will man the other safety spot?

I wouldn't say they are all that much worse on paper, to be honest. The only position they've gotten weaker at is safety, but there's still the draft.

[kgun12]

I know the naysayers don’t want to believe it but if you listen to the podcast with McGovern, he was brought in as Morse’s replacement. Oh and BTW he played center at PSU.

[TacklingDummy]

It's still going to come down to Josh Allen and rushing the other teams passer.

[cookie G]

Nota's darling...Joe B did the basically the same thing in his mock yesterday, except for Nabers.

The Bills give the Titans 28, 60 and 133 this year, plus next years' No. 1 for the Titans 7 and 182. The Bills take Nabers.

https://theathletic.com/5391796/2024/04/05/buffalo-bills-mock-draft-stefon-diggs-trade/

I can understand moving up some for either Thomas or AD Mitchell, and giving up less. there is a chance you won't have to move up at all for Mitchell.

[Forward_Lateral]

Nota's darling...Joe B did the basically the same thing in his mock yesterday, except for Nabers.

The Bills give the Titans 28, 60 and 133 this year, plus next years' No. 1 for the Titans 7 and 182. The Bills take Nabers.

https://theathletic.com/5391796/2024/04/05/buffalo-bills-mock-draft-stefon-diggs-trade/

I can understand moving up some for either Thomas or AD Mitchell, and giving up less. there is a chance you won't have to move up at all for Mitchell.

But I’m a moron for just asking the question

[OpIv37]

Diggs - BYE-BYE. He was useless in the playoffs and not worth the headache. Getting him off the books completely going forward is a fantastic and smart cap management. Great to move on from him now, and get relatively high value in draft capital (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265560-Bills-trading-Diggs-to-texans?p=5097251&viewfull=1#post5097251).

BTW...you were one that said there was "no way to move him." (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265023-Diggs-unsure-of-future-in-Buffalo?p=5081270&viewfull=1#post5081270) two months before they did exactly that. Another one of your wonderful predictions that are worthless.

Morse - He has already been replaced and him being gone will make hardly any difference. He was aging and on the downside of his career, with a history of concussions. Good move to cut him loose.

White - damaged goods. Also on the downside of his career and will never be what he was before his two devastating injuries. His age and injury history has this a GREAT move to cut him loose.

Poyer - damaged goods. Already past the "downside of his career" but so valueless that he could only get barely above vet minimum. Another GREAT move to cut him loose.

Hyde - more damaged goods. It's no surprise that he is still a FA. Likely that he will retire. The Bills could still re-sign him (probably) for vet minimum if they deem it worth while.

The Bills DO have "cap space" coming June 1. They don't need aging expensive vets. This is NOT a "rebuild"...how dumb. The core is strong and the past few drafts have the Bills in fantastic shape with a plethora of very good players, with great upsides.

Kincaid
Torrence
James Cook
Terrel Bernard
Shakir
Benford
Rousseau
Spencer Brown

Are all solid starters that are young and (mostly) cheap.

This draft his LOADED with excellent WR prospects.

All-in-all, the Bills are in very good shape and with Josh Allen their Super Bowl window is WIDE OPEN (THIS YEAR), opposite of your sourpuss unrealistic baloney (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/264052-Outplayed-at-home-by-a-team-with-a-near-100-point-differential?p=5050576&viewfull=1#post5050576).

Just sayin'

We had that “core” last year PLUS all the talent and experience we lost. And you can list the flaws of the guys we lost. We still don’t have anyone equal or better to make up the gap. And the June 1 cap space won’t be nearly enough to replace it all.

The Bills are in far worse shape than they were last year, and the results prove that last year wasn’t good enough. This is nothing but the usual homer spin from you.

[TacklingDummy]

We don’t need a Sammy Watkins type trade. I’d rather have the 2nd, 3rd, or 9th WR drafted that year.

[Mad Max]

We don’t need a Sammy Watkins type trade. I’d rather have the 2nd, 3rd, or 9th WR drafted that year.

Yep. We need to learn from our mistakes.

Besides we have too many holes that need reinforcing if not plugging.

Hold water, there will definitely be quality choices left for us at 28 or even a little later with a trade down.

[jamze132]

We don’t need a Sammy Watkins type trade. I’d rather have the 2nd, 3rd, or 9th WR drafted that year.

Beat me to it!

Please no trade ups!

[Forward_Lateral]

Beat me to it!

Please no trade ups!

I'd be ok with a trade up that didn't involve giving up that much draft capital.

If the guy they really want is there at like 15-20, then I'd be ok with it, I think.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Beane has a 100% positive history of meeting the 1st rounder as a GM. So far the running report of top 30 visits including known meets at the combine indicates none of the top 3 WR is on the list. Again, this is just the media best attempts at guessing what Beane might do, not what he should/should not do, nor it is inclusive because we know teams meet more players than reported.

On the list for WR are Ladd McConkey, Troy Franklin, Keon Coleman, Tez Walker, Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr., Jalen McMillan, Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Legette, Roman Wilson, Jonny Wilson, Stefan Cobbs, Paul Woods.

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2024/03/nfl-draft-2024-buffalo-bills-top-30-visitors-zoom-meetings-and-private-workout-tracker.html

[Forward_Lateral]

Arizona allegedly wants 3 first round picks for pick 4

LOL

[Mad Max]

Arizona allegedly wants 3 first round picks for pick 4

LOL
Let’s see if some doofus team bites in that (or slightly less than that) for one of the meh QBs. I doubt it.

[notacon]

We had that “core” last year PLUS all the talent and experience we lost. And you can list the flaws of the guys we lost. We still don’t have anyone equal or better to make up the gap. And the June 1 cap space won’t be nearly enough to replace it all.

The Bills are in far worse shape than they were last year, and the results prove that last year wasn’t good enough. This is nothing but the usual homer spin from you.


Blah...blah...blah...blah...

You had the Bills buried VERY early last year. Do I really have to go over all the ****ty predictions you made????

In FACT, the Bills did EXACTLY the OPPOSITE of what you said they would do and went on a 6-1 finish to the year, not only winning the AFCE title for the fourth time is a row (which you said they would not), but getting the #2 seed (which you also said they would not)

With hardly ANY help from their supposed elite #1 WR, who has NEVER played at an elite level in the most critical games of his four years here....EACH playoff loss the past four years.

I have opined accurately that Josh Allen failure to rise to the "Mt Rushmore" of QB's (exactly what Kurt Warner observed....what, is Kurt giving "homer spin"???! :rofl: How stupid) after the 2 min warning in the KC game was the tiny, sliver of a difference.

It is not "homer spin" to accurately observe the facts and reality. It is YOU that are putting your usual anti-Bills sour puss spin that is almost always wrong.

[OpIv37]

And as usual, you move the goal posts and talk about what happened in the past because you got called out for your homer spin on the current topic.

[notacon]

Nota's darling...Joe B did the basically the same thing in his mock yesterday, except for Nabers.

The Bills give the Titans 28, 60 and 133 this year, plus next years' No. 1 for the Titans 7 and 182. The Bills take Nabers.

https://theathletic.com/5391796/2024/04/05/buffalo-bills-mock-draft-stefon-diggs-trade/

I can understand moving up some for either Thomas or AD Mitchell, and giving up less. there is a chance you won't have to move up at all for Mitchell.

First of all, Joe B. is NOT my "darling". I have three "darlings" in my life...my wife and my two daughters. Don't besmirch or trivialize my relationship with them with silly crap about someone as mundane and irrelevant as a sports writer. How lame. Just sayin' :D:

Joe B IS, in fact, the best Bills BEAT reporter in so much as his observations of the team and players, in particular with his always interesting "All-22 Film" analysis and grading are stellar, presenting astute insight and expert analysis. Anyone who reads him regularly is better informed.

Anyway, of course, I read his mock draft. I have no idea if it is anywhere close to something that may or even should happen. That's why mock drafts are so much fun. Pure speculation.

What you do not present, and what really matters, is his LOGIC for speculating. Coming from a professional writer, who's only assignment is the Buffalo Bills, his insight is noteworthy. Here is his full analysis which is very interesting, insightful and astute.



Tennessee Titans trade Nos. 7, 182 to Bills for Nos. 28, 60, 133 and 2025 1st

The pick at No. 7: Bills – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

I continue to believe that anything, including a move like this one on draft day, is a real possibility for the Bills. Beane has long been an aggressive draft-day trader when he’s excited about a prospect and how he’d fit their system. Now, with a gaping hole for a top target at wide receiver and where the Bills are in their build, this is the type of move Beane could rationalize as one that puts them over the top for the foreseeable future. The cost of doing business might be high for some, which is understandable. I’m sure it will evoke memories of the Bills’ move up the board to take Sammy Watkins in 2014. But this is an entirely different situation from 2014 — almost comically so. Back then, it was the desperate move of a franchise hoping Watkins would help EJ Manuel become the franchise quarterback while blatantly ignoring several warning signs he was not that player. Now, there’s nothing for their quarterback to prove. The Bills have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen, a still-talented roster around him, and a pretty good idea that they’ll be pushing for the playoffs at the very least in 2024. By arming him with a young receiver with elite potential on a rookie deal for the next four years, it gives the Bills a lot of flexibility for how they spend through the duration of the receiver’s rookie deal. I’d liken this move more to the one the Atlanta Falcons made in 2011 to fly up the board and select Julio Jones, already with a top quarterback in Matt Ryan in place. They certainly didn’t regret that trade for a second.

The recent trade of Diggs, and acquiring the Vikings’ 2025 2nd from the Texans, could empower Beane to make a stark move up the board like this one, too. With an extremely unsettled quarterback room — either starting journeyman backup Sam Darnold or a rookie — that pick has a good chance of turning into an early second-round selection. If that does happen, the Bills could easily get themselves back at the end of the first round next year, or just view their early second-round pick as their first-round pick replacement for dealing it away to get a potential game-changing receiver. For the right player, Beane will move a first-round pick.

Is Nabers worth this type of move? In a more standard draft year, Nabers would easily be the best receiver prospect by a wide margin and likely one of the first players selected. He is outrageously talented and smooth, with the explosiveness to win however the Bills ask him to. The separation is effortless whether he’s at X, Z or slot and he gets the defender to bite at his breakdown constantly. He can win with physicality or speed and will eat cushion from off-defenders alive. Nabers has excellent, crisp footwork, and his contested catch concentration is simply outstanding. On top of it all, he can be a monster with yards after the catch, either using physicality to drag defenders or his 4.35 speed to blow up a play. Nabers has all the potential to be a star in the NFL, and with one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Allen, it increases that likelihood by a large margin. Nabers is worth the hype. But would he make everyone forget about the price tag? It certainly looks like he has all the potential to do so. And with the Bills looking like they’ll have cap space to work with in 2025, it could be the catalyst to another push toward the top of the AFC.

It's difficult to fault his reasoning. As with every draft, one never knows what is going to happen until it starts, and as every pick is made, it changes the decisions of each team (sometimes profoundly) depending on their draft board, and the possibility of striking a deal and the price.

This suggested trade is similar to what Forward put forth (and I did not have a knee jerk reaction that some here had, poo-pooing it out of hand) but the cost of next years 1st AND 2nd makes it much steeper.

Another interesting trade scenario was published today in CBS Sports Chris Trapasso's seven round mock (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-seven-round-nfl-mock-draft-four-wrs-picked-in-top-10-cowboys-seahawks-broncos-all-take-qbs-on-day-2/) where he has the Bills trading DOWN and STILL drafting THREE WRs'.

It's a pretty compelling idea....


1st Round Trade to Carolina for #1 Rd (#33) & #101 for Bills #28 & #248

33. Buffalo Bills (via mock trade w/ Panthers) - Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
60. Buffalo Bills - Brandon Dorlus, EDGE/DL, Oregon
101. Buffalo Bills (via mock trade w/ Panthers) - Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
133. Buffalo Bills - Nathan Thomas, OL, Louisiana
144. Buffalo Bills - Dwight McGlothern, DB, Arkansas
160. Buffalo Bills - Tyrone Tracy, RB, Purdue
163. Buffalo Bills - Cedric Johnson, EDGE, Ole Miss
200. Buffalo Bills - Donovan Jennings, OL, UCF
204. Buffalo Bills - Ryan Flournoy, WR, SE Missouri State



A lot of the mocks have McConkey going to KC at #32. Who knows????

I'm pretty satisfied and relieved that I AM NOT the one making decisions like these. It's a extremely difficult job.

Watching the NFL draft is always fun for any football fan. This year is going to be must-watch TV for any Bills fan.

[Saratoga Slim]

WR is not a position you mostly HAVE to get in the first round.

https://twitter.com/TheJoeMarino/status/1777655487586095569

[notacon]

And as usual, you move the goal posts and talk about what happened in the past because you got called out for your homer spin on the current topic.
:rofl: What baloney.

I'm not moving any goalposts. YOU ARE!!! Trying desperately (and failing) to obscure the fact that the majority of your sourpuss predictions were wrong which shows a stunning lack of judgement and realistic observations...over and over and over again.

Which makes your further predictions of doom and gloom, lacking in any credibility.

Sorry, but since I believe that Diggs was an ALBATROSS in his playoff (lack of) performances and especially his cancerous locker room presence, and the readily assumed detrimental relationship he had with Josh Allen this year, I see him as a NEGATIVE to the "core" of the Bills.

I also believe that every one of the players they moved on from (which you opined means the Bills got "worse") will prove to the team better. I strongly suspect if the Bills did NOT move on from those players, you'd be here whine that they are too old, they are washed up and a waste of cap space and the team needs to get younger....etc...etc...all presented as negatives.

In other words, I believe no matter WHAT the Bills do, you will have the same sourpuss anti-Bills rubbish. That's your nature.

So, you are wrong (as usual) there is no "homer spin" on the current topic, it's realistic observations that are difficult to refute...which you can't except top whining with the same tired predictions that you have been proven wrong time and time and time again.

[notacon]

WR is not a position you mostly HAVE to get in the first round.

https://twitter.com/TheJoeMarino/status/1777655487586095569

I already posted some of my own research (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265539-The-Family%E2%80%99s-Annual-Bills-Mock-Draft-%E2%80%94-2024-Version?p=5096076&viewfull=1#post5096076) concerning that reality...

Some of today's very best WR's were not 1st round picks.

Interestingly, only ONE of the Top Five WR's in 2023 (in yards) was a first round pick. Two (including the #1 WR) were FIFTH round picks, One 4th round and one 2nd. Rank of the Top 5 and their draft round...

#1 - Tyreek Hill - 5th
#2 - CeeDee Lamb - 1st
#3 - Amon-Ra St Brown - 4th
#4 - Puka Nacua - 5th
$5 - A.J. Brown - 2nd.

The Bills #1 WR, Stefon Diggs (#13 in 2023 receiving yards) was also a 5th round pick.

Yes, first round picks are more likely to be good WRs' but not overwhelmingly so. Like a substantial percentage of all first round picks, there are more busts or those that do not come close to performing as well as their draft status.

In fact, out of the Top 20 WR in 2023...

9 - 1st round
5 - 2nd round
2 - 3rd round
1 - 4th round
3 - 5th round

[Forward_Lateral]

Let’s see if some doofus team bites in that (or slightly less than that) for one of the meh QBs. I doubt it.
I'm a diehard Michigan fan, and McCarthy was great, but I just don't see how he's a top 10 pick.

[cas22]

Let's say the chips fell, and MHJ was still sitting there, somehow, at Arizona's pick.

If the Bills traded up to 5 by giving up 28, 60, next year's 1st and 2nd and drafted Marv JR, what would you do?

I'm not saying they should, would or even could, but what if they did?

you don't trade up for a position if that draft is loaded at that such position... lets remember that Diggs was a 5th, Devonte Adams was pick #53 of the 2nd round.. Keenan Allen was a 3rd round pick so its very clear you don't have to break the bank to get that WR..

If I was the Bills I'd stay put and see who is on the board, I'm in the minority here and say the Bills should draft a O-linman preferably a center ,, I like Jackson Powers Johnson out of Oregon at 28 if he is there..

why you say is we have a once in a life time QB lets keep him protected , right now we have to replace 2 by moving McGovern to center and then bringing in a left guard, there is no garuntee that McGovern is the answer at center, he hasn't played there since college ... by drafting this kid out of Oregon not only is he a lot bigger than Morris he is more athletic than Morris, now are whole right side of the o-line is young and would be the smart move.

if you have to you trade up in the 2nd round for a wr like Ladd McConkey. or the kid out of Florida who might end up being the best of this years class.

Harrison has got a lot of attention because #1 he has his daddy's name, #2 he played at Ohio state which he was surrounded by talent. to me this is like the year Josh came out in the draft, most were in love with Mayfield at QB while a select few who follow college ball followed Allen through out his college career, a player who played with guys that are working at Lowes and home depot now vs a guy that had WRs 6 yards open with separation at a school loaded with talent...

the Kid from Florida Ricky Pearsall who played with a crap QB and surrounded by so so talent who played against probably the best defense's in division 1 football will end up being the most productive WR in this class and can be had in the 3rd round, problem is the Bills don't have a 3rd..

[Forward_Lateral]

you don't trade up for a position if that draft is loaded at that such position... lets remember that Diggs was a 5th, Devonte Adams was pick #53 of the 2nd round.. Keenan Allen was a 3rd round pick so its very clear you don't have to break the bank to get that WR..

If I was the Bills I'd stay put and see who is on the board, I'm in the minority here and say the Bills should draft a O-linman preferably a center ,, I like Jackson Powers Johnson out of Oregon at 28 if he is there..

why you say is we have a once in a life time QB lets keep him protected , right now we have to replace 2 by moving McGovern to center and then bringing in a left guard, there is no garuntee that McGovern is the answer at center, he hasn't played there since college ... by drafting this kid out of Oregon not only is he a lot bigger than Morris he is more athletic than Morris, now are whole right side of the o-line is young and would be the smart move.

if you have to you trade up in the 2nd round for a wr like Ladd McConkey. or the kid out of Florida who might end up being the best of this years class.

Harrison has got a lot of attention because #1 he has his daddy's name, #2 he played at Ohio state which he was surrounded by talent. to me this is like the year Josh came out in the draft, most were in love with Mayfield at QB while a select few who follow college ball followed Allen through out his college career, a player who played with guys that are working at Lowes and home depot now vs a guy that had WRs 6 yards open with separation at a school loaded with talent...

the Kid from Florida Ricky Pearsall who played with a crap QB and surrounded by so so talent who played against probably the best defense's in division 1 football will end up being the most productive WR in this class and can be had in the 3rd round, problem is the Bills don't have a 3rd..
I would not be upset if they didn't take a WR at 28. As long as they don't take something completely idiotic like RB. Even if they took a shut down corner ala Sauce Gardner, I would not complain.

That being said, I hope they take a WR or if Powers is there, him. I agree with you on him being a generational Center.

[Mad Max]

I'm a diehard Michigan fan, and McCarthy was great, but I just don't see how he's a top 10 pick.

That’s how weak (IMO) this draft is at QB, when JJ McCarthy is being talked about as a first round pick. Bro smells like Joey Harrington.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Just as a general guideline, I'm against giving up something lie Joe B proposed here (by the way, I believe it is not enough) for one player, a non QB player, and not even the best in his position in this draft.

I'm all for get a difference maker. In this case, you are betting on this guy being a future HOF. Whatever you think the reasonings are, the biggest one is that you trust your scouting on WR is right on. Well, history showed many, in fact, majority WRs in HOF are drafted outside of top 10. Why the same scouting not able to unearth the Justin Jefferson type of guys in previous drafts (and that you have to trade for Diggs from Minny in the first place)? If you have doubts, like you have doubts on Justin Jefferson, don't do it. Play the odds. Instead of one guy, I can draft 2 first rounders, one second rounder, and one 4th rounder. If one of the 4 guys turns out being a difference maker, regardless the position, I'm already ahead.

[cas22]

First of all, Joe B. is NOT my "darling". I have three "darlings" in my life...my wife and my two daughters. Don't besmirch or trivialize my relationship with them with silly crap about someone as mundane and irrelevant as a sports writer. How lame. Just sayin' :D:

Joe B IS, in fact, the best Bills BEAT reporter in so much as his observations of the team and players, in particular with his always interesting "All-22 Film" analysis and grading are stellar, presenting astute insight and expert analysis. Anyone who reads him regularly is better informed.

Anyway, of course, I read his mock draft. I have no idea if it is anywhere close to something that may or even should happen. That's why mock drafts are so much fun. Pure speculation.

What you do not present, and what really matters, is his LOGIC for speculating. Coming from a professional writer, who's only assignment is the Buffalo Bills, his insight is noteworthy. Here is his full analysis which is very interesting, insightful and astute.




It's difficult to fault his reasoning. As with every draft, one never knows what is going to happen until it starts, and as every pick is made, it changes the decisions of each team (sometimes profoundly) depending on their draft board, and the possibility of striking a deal and the price.

This suggested trade is similar to what Forward put forth (and I did not have a knee jerk reaction that some here had, poo-pooing it out of hand) but the cost of next years 1st AND 2nd makes it much steeper.

Another interesting trade scenario was published today in CBS Sports Chris Trapasso's seven round mock (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-seven-round-nfl-mock-draft-four-wrs-picked-in-top-10-cowboys-seahawks-broncos-all-take-qbs-on-day-2/) where he has the Bills trading DOWN and STILL drafting THREE WRs'.

It's a pretty compelling idea....




A lot of the mocks have McConkey going to KC at #32. Who knows????

I'm pretty satisfied and relieved that I AM NOT the one making decisions like these. It's a extremely difficult job.

Watching the NFL draft is always fun for any football fan. This year is going to be must-watch TV for any Bills fan.

KCs issues were not there play makers, there O-line was terrible, I'd be shocked if they don't take a o-lineman esp if theres a tackle there.

[DetoxTent]

They aren't really worse.
Milano will be back, so the LBs are already instantly better than last year.
Corners are a wash, as the ones they lost (Tre and Dane) didn't contribute all that much.

Safety, to me is the big question mark. Even though Po and Hyde showed their age a lot, they still played better than average. Rapp played ok in his role, but how will he do in one of the traditional safety spots? Who will man the other safety spot?
I wouldn't say they are all that much worse on paper, to be honest. The only position they've gotten weaker at is safety, but there's still the draft.
You are right that the two biggest positional question marks are WR and safety. Rapp is not very good. He's not a starting safety, IMO. Figure they will draft at least one. Then what? They could use a DT for the rotation also.

[DetoxTent]

WR is not a position you mostly HAVE to get in the first round.
https://twitter.com/TheJoeMarino/status/1777655487586095569
Depending how the WRs go ahead of their first round pick, would it be ok to go safety in round #1, WR in #2, the WR again later on?

[Mad Max]

Depending how the WRs go ahead of their first round pick, would it be ok to go safety in round #1, WR in #2, the WR again later on?

Only if the run hasn’t gotten too deep on WR and Nubin is available. None of the other safeties are first rounders.

[cookie G]

First of all, Joe B. is NOT my "darling". I have three "darlings" in my life...my wife and my two daughters. Don't besmirch or trivialize my relationship with them with silly crap about someone as mundane and irrelevant as a sports writer. How lame. Just sayin' :D:

Joe B IS, in fact, the best Bills BEAT reporter in so much as his observations of the team and players, in particular with his always interesting "All-22 Film" analysis and grading are stellar, presenting astute insight and expert analysis. Anyone who reads him regularly is better informed.

Anyway, of course, I read his mock draft. I have no idea if it is anywhere close to something that may or even should happen. That's why mock drafts are so much fun. Pure speculation.

What you do not present, and what really matters, is his LOGIC for speculating. Coming from a professional writer, who's only assignment is the Buffalo Bills, his insight is noteworthy. Here is his full analysis which is very interesting, insightful and astute.




It's difficult to fault his reasoning. As with every draft, one never knows what is going to happen until it starts, and as every pick is made, it changes the decisions of each team (sometimes profoundly) depending on their draft board, and the possibility of striking a deal and the price.

This suggested trade is similar to what Forward put forth (and I did not have a knee jerk reaction that some here had, poo-pooing it out of hand) but the cost of next years 1st AND 2nd makes it much steeper.

Another interesting trade scenario was published today in CBS Sports Chris Trapasso's seven round mock (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-seven-round-nfl-mock-draft-four-wrs-picked-in-top-10-cowboys-seahawks-broncos-all-take-qbs-on-day-2/) where he has the Bills trading DOWN and STILL drafting THREE WRs'.

It's a pretty compelling idea....




A lot of the mocks have McConkey going to KC at #32. Who knows????

I'm pretty satisfied and relieved that I AM NOT the one making decisions like these. It's a extremely difficult job.

Watching the NFL draft is always fun for any football fan. This year is going to be must-watch TV for any Bills fan.

Yeah, I read his justification. He's still talking about giving away 2 no. 1 picks, a 2nd and a 4th for a WR, in a relatively deep class. Its cute speculation, but its also mortgaging the future for one non-QB player. Its far closer to Russ Brandon than it is Brandon Beane.

[cookie G]

I already posted some of my own research (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265539-The-Family%E2%80%99s-Annual-Bills-Mock-Draft-%E2%80%94-2024-Version?p=5096076&viewfull=1#post5096076) concerning that reality...

Some of today's very best WR's were not 1st round picks.

Interestingly, only ONE of the Top Five WR's in 2023 (in yards) was a first round pick. Two (including the #1 WR) were FIFTH round picks, One 4th round and one 2nd. Rank of the Top 5 and their draft round...

#1 - Tyreek Hill - 5th
#2 - CeeDee Lamb - 1st
#3 - Amon-Ra St Brown - 4th
#4 - Puka Nacua - 5th
$5 - A.J. Brown - 2nd.

The Bills #1 WR, Stefon Diggs (#13 in 2023 receiving yards) was also a 5th round pick.

Yes, first round picks are more likely to be good WRs' but not overwhelmingly so. Like a substantial percentage of all first round picks, there are more busts or those that do not come close to performing as well as their draft status.

In fact, out of the Top 20 WR in 2023...

9 - 1st round
5 - 2nd round
2 - 3rd round
1 - 4th round
3 - 5th round

I heard the podcast, again, its interesting. But this isn't the year to say, "We can get one down the road, there is no need to use a no. 1 pick on a WR."

There are some serious outliers at work here.

When you talk about the mid round picks that have made it, consider how many DIDN'T make it. In the list that you gave, as well as the one that Marino gave, these mid round gems pop up about 1 or two per year, once in a while, 3.

Examples:

Diggs was a 5th round pick in 2015. He was the 20th WR taken, the 15th past the first round. There were 35 WR taken that year, 29 after the 1st round. Of that...you have Diggs, taken in the 5th. Tyler Lockett was taken in the 3rd. Other than that, you have guys who contributed at times, like Jamison Crowder. But most...failed.

Tyreek Hill was a 5th round pick in 2016. He was the 18th WR taken and the 14th past the 1st round. There were 31 WRs taken that year, 27 past the 1st round. The vast majority failed.

I seriously doubt the Rams last year said to themselves, "we can wait, Puca will be there in the 5th. I'm sure the CHiefs didn't think that when they drafted Hill, or the Vikings when they drafted Diggs.

Its the same logic that says you can wait until the late rounds because Tom Brady was a 6th round pick or Brock Purdy was a 7th round pick.

Or its the same logic that would say you only take WRs who run a 4.6 because that's what Jerry Rice ran a 4.6 40 years ago.

The 2nd round picks are a little different. Many come from the 2nd. The 2019 draft was the best example, where Deebo, AJ Brown and Metcalf all came from the 2nd. But keep in mind that the Bills draft towards the end of the 2nd. Deebo and AJ Brown were taken towards the top of the 2nd. And as far as DK Metcalf, Im sure there are GM's still kicking themselves for letting him fall that far. Not too many will want to make the same mistake.

The Bills traded away their no.1 WR and their no 2 wr (sort of), is gone. This is no year to take some pass rusher, or safety, with the plan that they can get their No. 1 WR in the later rounds.

Rather, its a year to take the best WR at 28 and then another 1, or 2 in the later rounds.

[cookie G]

This is the type of trade up I can get down with...

https://x.com/BuiltInBuffalo_/status/1778227980256374977

The Bills give up a 4th and their 3rd next year to move up to 17 and take Brian Thomas Jr., the consensus 4th ranked WR in the class.

Of note, in their sim, they tried to trade up to 15 and offered one of next year's second round picks, but it was rejected.

That is a little more realistic, IMO. I don't know if a 4th and next year's third will do it. But I'd be willing to part with one of the 2nds next year for Thomas.

[notacon]

KCs issues were not there play makers, there O-line was terrible, I'd be shocked if they don't take a o-lineman esp if theres a tackle there.

Maybe. Maybe not.

Get ready for a lot of "shocks" in the draft as there always are.

I approach the draft like I do a murder mystery story. Enjoy the ride and shun any spoilers.

[notacon]

Yeah, I read his justification. He's still talking about giving away 2 no. 1 picks, a 2nd and a 4th for a WR, in a relatively deep class. Its cute speculation, but its also mortgaging the future for one non-QB player. Its far closer to Russ Brandon than it is Brandon Beane.

Maybe. Maybe not.

I am not endorsing nor shunning the justification or even trying to guess (and that's what it is is...PURE GUESS) what Beane either has planned or what he will do. Of course, what he actually ends up doing is predicated on a LOT of factors (almost all) outside his control.

I am not endorsing or shunning either Joe B's mock or Chris Trapasso's (trading down)

The only draft pick that is a sure thing (as in you have compete control) is the first overall.

I do NOT want to be in Beane's shoes. It's a very, very difficult job. Most here like to bloviate that they know what's best, but I strongly suspect that if they had to make these decisions, with the team's future very much on the line, it's more likely we would roll up in the fetal position in a corner.

We have the freedom to bloviate (and that's what we are ALL doing concerning a draft) without threatening anything of value....like our jobs....jobs that literally pay millions of dollars.

That's why it's so much fun.

[notacon]

I heard the podcast, again, its interesting. But this isn't the year to say, "We can get one down the road, there is no need to use a no. 1 pick on a WR."

There are some serious outliers at work here.

When you talk about the mid round picks that have made it, consider how many DIDN'T make it. In the list that you gave, as well as the one that Marino gave, these mid round gems pop up about 1 or two per year, once in a while, 3.

Examples:

Diggs was a 5th round pick in 2015. He was the 20th WR taken, the 15th past the first round. There were 35 WR taken that year, 29 after the 1st round. Of that...you have Diggs, taken in the 5th. Tyler Lockett was taken in the 3rd. Other than that, you have guys who contributed at times, like Jamison Crowder. But most...failed.

Tyreek Hill was a 5th round pick in 2016. He was the 18th WR taken and the 14th past the 1st round. There were 31 WRs taken that year, 27 past the 1st round. The vast majority failed.

I seriously doubt the Rams last year said to themselves, "we can wait, Puca will be there in the 5th. I'm sure the CHiefs didn't think that when they drafted Hill, or the Vikings when they drafted Diggs.

Its the same logic that says you can wait until the late rounds because Tom Brady was a 6th round pick or Brock Purdy was a 7th round pick.

Or its the same logic that would say you only take WRs who run a 4.6 because that's what Jerry Rice ran a 4.6 40 years ago.

The 2nd round picks are a little different. Many come from the 2nd. The 2019 draft was the best example, where Deebo, AJ Brown and Metcalf all came from the 2nd. But keep in mind that the Bills draft towards the end of the 2nd. Deebo and AJ Brown were taken towards the top of the 2nd. And as far as DK Metcalf, Im sure there are GM's still kicking themselves for letting him fall that far. Not too many will want to make the same mistake.

The Bills traded away their no.1 WR and their no 2 wr (sort of), is gone. This is no year to take some pass rusher, or safety, with the plan that they can get their No. 1 WR in the later rounds.

Rather, its a year to take the best WR at 28 and then another 1, or 2 in the later rounds.

I have no idea what "podcast" you are refereeing to. I have not heard, nor do I care, nor did my post have anything to do with any Marino podcast. (that I never even heard about until you mentioned it)

I did my own analysis and my post did not express any idea for "We can get one down the road, there is no need to use a no. 1 pick on a WR.".

So, I'm not sure why you even quoted my post. My post that I repeated was from "The Family's Annual Mock Draft - 2024 Version" (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265539-The-Family%E2%80%99s-Annual-Bills-Mock-Draft-%E2%80%94-2024-Version) in which I was responding to the assertion by The Consiglire that...



A true #1WR?

Not where we draft at 28th.

7 WRs will be gone by then.

Jefferson is predicted to go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

How is 60th overall a reach?

My point was that "Some of today's very best WR's were not 1st round picks.". And the idea that a "true #1 WR" is not goong to be there at #28 and that "7 WRs will be gone by then.". I simply researched the history and refuted both assertions.

So can I assume that we are in agreement??

The Athletic had another very interesting and informative article today that put into stark terms the risk of any WR selected in the 1st round being more likely a bust or a reach as being a Superstar or a "star" since 2011 draft.

Odds a first-round WR busts? Plus, the top three WR prospects (https://theathletic.com/5405843/2024/04/10/odds-a-first-round-wr-busts-scoop-city/?source=freedailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=13460465)





To sort stars, busts and everything in between, I looked at four criteria:
1. Starts: Was the player good (and healthy) enough to start at least 50 career games?
2. Production: Did he post two 1,000-yard seasons?
3. No. 1 option: Has he seen 150-plus targets in any season?
4. Paid: Did his team pick up his fifth-year option?


Players were sorted into four categories: Superstars hit all four criteria, stars satisfied at least two, a reach hit at least one and busts satisfied none. Anyone with fewer than four seasons saw their numbers projected. You can find other notes on the process here.
(https://x.com/JacobRFootball/status/1778035478198911311) The numbers were worse than I expected:

https://d15k2d11r6t6rl.cloudfront.net/public/users/Integrators/669d5713-9b6a-46bb-bd7e-c542cff6dd6a/1d75fd3a730a463c8648bd84293b832a/Scoop%20City_%20Success%20rate%20for%20WRs%20%283%29-min.png


Drafting a first-round WR is hard, and the hit rate here is historically lower than other positions. There’s a 63 percent chance of drafting a bust or a reach. Think of a reach as a serviceable starter who should’ve been drafted three rounds later, like Tavon Austin (No. 8 in 2013, 21 spots ahead of DeAndre Hopkins) or Mike Williams (No. 7 in 2017).


Your first-round WR typically busts. Out of every three WRs drafted, one has been a bust, like Jalen Reagor, infamously drafted by the Eagles in 2020 at pick No. 21 — one spot ahead of Justin Jefferson.


The odds of landing a superstar are low. Less than one of every five WRs drafted in the first-round hit each criteria. The No. 27 pick in 2013, DeAndre Hopkins, checked every box, as has 2018’s No. 24, D.J. Moore.


The good news? Drafting a WR in the top 10 made teams more likely to at least land a star, like Amari Cooper (No. 4 in 2015).
The bad news? The historical hit rate for a top-10 WR is barely over 50 percent (52.9).



https://d15k2d11r6t6rl.cloudfront.net/public/users/Integrators/669d5713-9b6a-46bb-bd7e-c542cff6dd6a/1d75fd3a730a463c8648bd84293b832a/Copy%20of%20Scoop%20City_%20Success%20rate%20for%20WRs%20%282%29-min.png



It would be smart to assume that drafting WR's after the first round get exponentially more difficult to get a "superstar" or even a "star".

As usual, drafting is VERY HARD. It's not a science.

The two authors' (Jacob Robinson and Dianna Russini) assessment of the elite top 3, Harriosn, Nabers and Odunze seem to increase the "odds" that they will be at least "stars". But, no one actually knows.

This scene from Moneyball nails it perfectly....


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"You don't have a crystal ball. You can't look at a kid and predict his future any more than I can. I've sat at those kitchen tables with you and listen to you tell those parents 'when I know, I know, and when it comes to your son, I know'.

But you don't. You don't"

More accurate words have never been spoken.


Beane and McD have got their work cut our for them.

All their work (with the full organization of talent evaluators behind them) of tearing apart every kid, watching hours and hours of film, working them out first hand, talking to a plethora of people from their past they know them and/or have been close to them, hopefully increase the odds of getting it right.


But, in the end...."You don't know"