Move Up .... Move Down or Stand Pat

[Woodman]

I get the feeling we'll move up for a WR .... if we can get a few we like to drop outside the top 12-15 picks.

[Bill Cody]

I'm certain we're going to do one of those 3 things

[Woodman]

can an admin attach a poll please. :cheers:

[ParanoidAndroid]

I always like the idea of moving down to add day 2 picks.

I have a feeling Beane will use the Texans 2025 pick to move up for his receiver.

[Woodman]

I always like the idea of moving down to add day 2 picks.

I have a feeling Beane will use the Texans 2025 pick to move up for his receiver.

That pick we get from the Texans is of course the pick the Vikings traded to them ..... basically a late 1st if the Vikings season goes as expected.

If that avoids giving our 1st next year I'd be for it.

[kgun12]

If you’re not going after a franchise QB, I don’t like moving up, the risk reward is too much. I would love to see the Bills go to the Carolina’s or Washington’s who have multiple 2nd’s and move back and get an extra 2nd and a 3rd this year.

[Mad Max]

If you’re not going after a franchise QB, I don’t like moving up, the risk reward is too much. I would love to see the Bills go to the Carolina’s or Washington’s who have multiple 2nd’s and move back and get an extra 2nd and a 3rd this year.

I’ve stated my preference for a trade down, the value chart looks like just that our first for someone’s second and third.

[kgun12]

I’ve stated my preference for a trade down, the value chart looks like just that our first for someone’s second and third.

Yeah the Bills would gain another 2nd and a 3rd and the would have to sprinkle in a couple late round pick.

[notacon]

I have a strong suspicion that Beane does not know if he's going to "move up....move down or stand pat" until the draft actually starts and players are taken off the board.

Any trade, up or down, depends so much on what trades are possible.

I'm make this solid prediction, the Bills will either move up....move down or stand pat. :rolleyes:

[ParanoidAndroid]

I have a strong suspicion that Beane does not know if he's going to "move up....move down or stand pat" until the draft actually starts and players are taken off the board.

Any trade, up or down, depends so much on what trades are possible.

I'm make this solid prediction, the Bills will either move up....move down or stand pat. :rolleyes:

You would think that there is a playbook being developed that takes into account a multitude of scenarios involving the players they have on their board.

What we have seen in the past is Beane targeting a guy and going after them. That's his MO so far but that's not to say moving down is out of the realm of possibility.

I would be curious to know if a team has developed a more sophisticated mock draft AI. That would be fun to work on.

[Mad Max]

You would think that there is a playbook being developed that takes into account a multitude of scenarios involving the players they have on their board.

What we have seen in the past is Beane targeting a guy and going after them. That's his MO so far but that's not to say moving down is out of the realm of possibility.

I would be curious to know if a team has developed a more sophisticated mock draft AI. That would be fun to work on.

To be clear, those of us who are proponents of a trade down are just thinking wishfully.

We all know BBB doesn’t roll that way. If I were to bet on it I’d lay odds of a trade UP of better than 60%.

[Woodman]

I have a strong suspicion that Beane does not know if he's going to "move up....move down or stand pat" until the draft actually starts and players are taken off the board.

Any trade, up or down, depends so much on what trades are possible.

I'm make this solid prediction, the Bills will either move up....move down or stand pat. :rolleyes:

[Woodman]

To be clear, those of us who are proponents of a trade down are just thinking wishfully.

We all know BBB doesn’t roll that way. If I were to bet on it I’d lay odds of a trade UP of better than 60%.

At least.

[Woodman]

If you’re not going after a franchise QB, I don’t like moving up, the risk reward is too much. I would love to see the Bills go to the Carolina’s or Washington’s who have multiple 2nd’s and move back and get an extra 2nd and a 3rd this year.

It will take a will of steel for Beane to hold his horses.

Love the extra 2nd and a 3rd.

[notacon]

You would think that there is a playbook being developed that takes into account a multitude of scenarios involving the players they have on their board.

What we have seen in the past is Beane targeting a guy and going after them. That's his MO so far but that's not to say moving down is out of the realm of possibility.

I would be curious to know if a team has developed a more sophisticated mock draft AI. That would be fun to work on.

Oh yeah...I do not think there is any doubt that each team conducts several mock drafts....over and over and over again.

Of course the huge difference is that each team has a LOT of information about each player. More than any of us can ever dram of.

[YardRat]

Beane is just about 100% guaranteed to move up in either the first or second, all of these 'extra' picks are burning a whole in his pocket as we speak.

[Woodman]

Beane is just about 100% guaranteed to move up in either the first or second, all of these 'extra' picks are burning a whole in his pocket as we speak.

I'd wager he does as well.

[Woodman]

Von Miller suggests Bills GM Brandon Beane wants to trade up to draft a wide receiver - NBC Sports (https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/von-miller-suggests-bills-gm-brandon-beane-wants-to-trade-up-to-draft-a-wide-receiver)

Miller posted a video (https://twitter.com/panchobillza/status/1778947938267381971?) that he captioned, “Brandon Beane arriving to the 2024 NFL draft to trade up for a WR. In Beane we TRUST.”
Does Miller actually have any inside information about Beane’s plans? If he does, posting that on social media would be an odd choice. But Beane’s own comments make clear that he is open to including Miller in the Bills’ pre-draft process.

[Novacane]

A small move up to get a guy they like wouldn't bother me. A move up to the top 10 where they give up next years first would.

[DetoxTent]

I'm certain we're going to do one of those 3 things

:nod:

Somebody tell Woodman to just trust the process. And stop spamming the forum with silly threads.

- - - Updated - - -


A small move up to get a guy they like wouldn't bother me. A move up to the top 10 where they give up next years first would.

Rumors whirling that the Bills plan to trade up to take a tight end.

[Woodman]

2024 NFL Draft- Nine teams that most need to ace their picks (https://www.nfl.com/news/2024-nfl-draft-nine-teams-that-most-need-to-ace-their-picks)

[notacon]

Beane is just about 100% guaranteed to move up in either the first or second, all of these 'extra' picks are burning a whole in his pocket as we speak.

I do not think there is any doubt that he planned it this way with the deals last year for late draft picks this year.

He knew (as did the whole NFL world) that the 2024 crop of WR's was deep with the top quality extending well past just three.

2023 had only four WR chosen in the first round. After those four were gone, the best pass catcher left was TE Kincaid.

This year is completely different. For example, in Scout's Inc. 2023 prospect rankings, the highest overall rank for WR's was #17, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (he went #20 overall).

They had only four WR ranked in the top 32, and those were the only WR drafted in the 1st round, very close to their ranking.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranked #17, drafted #20
Zay Flowers ranked #22, drafted #22
Jordan Addison ranked #26, drafted #23
Quentin Johnston ranked #21, drafted #29

For comparison sake, Scout's Inc had Dalton Kincaid ranked #14 overall. Little wonder the Bills moved up to #25 to get him.

2024 is a LOT different...with SEVEN WR's ranked in the top 32, with one more ranked #34...

Marvin Harrison - ranked #2 overall.
Malik Nabers - #4
Rome Odunze - #8
Adonai Mitchell - #23
Brain Thomas - #24
Xavier Lagette - #28
Ladd McConkey - #31

Four more are ranked in the top 64..

Xavier Worthy - #34
Keon Coleman - #36
Ricky Pearsall - #44
Troy Franklin - #52

This sure looks like the year (and Beane's plan) to get into position to draft at least one, maybe two, quality highly ranked WR's.

I suspect that exactly how the draft unfolds and the cost, (as it relates to their value on the Bills draft board) will determine just how much of a jump up he does.

I expect Beane to go after the WR he has his eye on. The chances that he will move up to get him is probably 80%.

[Woodman]

I do not think there is any doubt that he planned it this way with the deals last year for late draft picks this year.

He knew (as did the whole NFL world) that the 2024 crop of WR's was deep with the top quality extending well past just three.

2023 had only four WR chosen in the first round. After those four were gone, the best pass catcher left was TE Kincaid.

This year is completely different. For example, in Scout's Inc. 2023 prospect rankings, the highest overall rank for WR's was #17, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (he went #20 overall).

They had only four WR ranked in the top 32, and those were the only WR drafted in the 1st round, very close to their ranking.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranked #17, drafted #20
Zay Flowers ranked #22, drafted #22
Jordan Addison ranked #26, drafted #23
Quentin Johnston ranked #21, drafted #29

For comparison sake, Scout's Inc had Dalton Kincaid ranked #14 overall. Little wonder the Bills moved up to #25 to get him.

2024 is a LOT different...with SEVEN WR's ranked in the top 32, with one more ranked #34...

Marvin Harrison - ranked #2 overall.
Malik Nabers - #4
Rome Odunze - #8
Adonai Mitchell - #23
Brain Thomas - #24
Xavier Lagette - #28
Ladd McConkey - #31

Four more are ranked in the top 64..

Xavier Worthy - #34
Keon Coleman - #36
Ricky Pearsall - #44
Troy Franklin - #52

This sure looks like the year (and Beane's plan) to get into position to draft at least one, maybe two, quality highly ranked WR's.

I suspect that exactly how the draft unfolds and the cost, (as it relates to their value on the Bills draft board) will determine just how much of a jump up he does.

I expect Beane to go after the WR he has his eye on. The chances that he will move up to get him is probably 80%.

If he stays at 28 it would be a huge shock.

[jamze132]

Stay at 28, keep drafting as many players as possible.

[Woodman]

Stay at 28, keep drafting as many players as possible.

:popcorn: Or will the ants in his pants get the better of him? :idunno:

[kgun12]

Stay at 28, keep drafting as many players as possible.

This, there are too many quality players in this draft and the Bills need to fill some backup and eventual starters.

[kgun12]

:popcorn: Or will the ants in his pants get the better of him? :idunno:

This is unfortunately much more likely!

[notacon]

There are plenty of opportunities to "move up" that does not involve the 1st round.

I think it's a 60/40 chance Beane moves up from #28, most likely a few spots to get the WR they have pegged IF they believe that another team will get him.

There will be other opportunities to move up in round #2 from #60 and back into round #3.

The thought that Beane should stay put at #28, without any knowledge of what that even means is rather short sighted.

[Woodman]

There are plenty of opportunities to "move up" that does not involve the 1st round.

I think it's a 60/40 chance Beane moves up from #28, most likely a few spots to get the WR they have pegged IF they believe that another team will get him.

There will be other opportunities to move up in round #2 from #60 and back into round #3.

The thought that Beane should stay put at #28, without any knowledge of what that even means is rather short sighted.
He'll be like a cat on a hot tin roof.

[Woodman]

This, there are too many quality players in this draft and the Bills need to fill some backup and eventual starters.
There will be plenty of new faces that's for damn sure. :gobills:

[jamze132]

There are plenty of opportunities to "move up" that does not involve the 1st round.

I think it's a 60/40 chance Beane moves up from #28, most likely a few spots to get the WR they have pegged IF they believe that another team will get him.

There will be other opportunities to move up in round #2 from #60 and back into round #3.

The thought that Beane should stay put at #28, without any knowledge of what that even means is rather short sighted.

What it means to stay at 28 is that you get to draft more guys than you would if you’re trading picks to move up. I’m especially against trades involving first round picks, which is what we’re really talking about here…not day three trades.

Draft picks are so unpredictable. First round picks have busted and seventh round picks have been superstars. See Sammy Watkins in 2014 - huge waste of resources.

Hindsight is always 20/20…Brady would have gone #1 overall…not in the 6th.

Draft as many guys as possible as you never know where you’ll find the next superstar.

[Woodman]

What it means to stay at 28 is that you get to draft more guys than you would if you’re trading picks to move up. I’m especially against trades involving first round picks, which is what we’re really talking about here…not day three trades.


It depends how needy the team your trading up with happens to be.

The Jags for example have just 4 picks .... so there's some value for them in moving down a few spots to get a windfall of later round picks.

It's always a fun event.

[jamze132]

It depends how needy the team your trading up with happens to be.

The Jags for example have just 4 picks .... so there's some value for them in moving down a few spots to get a windfall of later round picks.

It's always a fun event.

We have a plethora though. Why trade away multiple picks to move up for a guy that might not pan out?

[notacon]

What it means to stay at 28 is that you get to draft more guys than you would if you’re trading picks to move up. I’m especially against trades involving first round picks, which is what we’re really talking about here…not day three trades.

Draft picks are so unpredictable. First round picks have busted and seventh round picks have been superstars. See Sammy Watkins in 2014 - huge waste of resources.

Hindsight is always 20/20…Brady would have gone #1 overall…not in the 6th.

Draft as many guys as possible as you never know where you’ll find the next superstar.

I know all that.

Of course "Draft picks are so unpredictable". Of course "First round picks have busted and seventh round picks have been superstars.". So what???

Sammy Watkins is a perfect example of the crap GM and drafting the Bills made before McBeane came along. I went over that right here (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/265626-Interesting-take-Is-it-2017-all-over-again-for-the-Bills?p=5099036&viewfull=1#post5099036).

The point is that trading up (or down) in and of itself are not good or bad. It's what the details of the trade results in.


Of course the most consequential first round trade up in recent Bills history is why the Bills are now perennial contenders...Josh Allen....which after wheeling and dealing earlier to get #12 overall, packaged more draft picks to move up to #7.

The trade up for Edmunds (despite the chatter here and only here, professional NFL experts placed Edmunds in the top 10 of LB's in (reflecting performance the previous season) 2020 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/29460392/ranking-nfl-top-10-linebackers-2020-best-hybrid-playmakers-d), 2021 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/31765336/ranking-nfl-top-10-linebackers-2021-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks), 2022 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/34168579/ranking-nfl-top-10-ball-linebackers-2022-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks-best-linebackers) & 2023 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/37773470/ranking-nfl-top-10-ball-linebackers-2023-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks-best-linebackers)) resulted in getting one of the best LB's in the NFL who became (as I predicted) one of the highest aid LB's in the NFL.

Other recent first round trade ups (Beane has never traded down in the first round) have one being incomplete, Elam, and the other sure looking like a home run, Kincaid.

Of course one of the other most consequential trade involving draft picks (although not a trade-up) was the much needed Diggs trade, that helped Allen elevate his game into elite status.

It's silly to discount later round trades because some of those by Beane have been very positively consequential....

In 2019 he traded two 4th round picks to get Dawson Knox in the 3rd round.

2022 traded a 5th round pick (#168) and a 6th (#203) for a 5th (#148) to select Khalil Shakir.

I repeat "The thought that Beane should stay put at #28, without any knowledge of what that even means is rather short sighted."

Drafting "more guys" is not a desirable goal. Drafting the RIGHT players that will advance the team's schemes and make them better is what matters.

If Beane goes into the draft with the predetermined mindset that "What it means to stay at 28 is that you get to draft more guys than you would if you’re trading picks to move up." he should be FIRED IMMEDIATELY!!!

I trust Beane to do what's best for the TEAM. If trading up to get the player they cherish is what they want to do, then so be it.

[notacon]

We have a plethora though. Why trade away multiple picks to move up for a guy that might not pan out?

Like Josh Allen???? :rofl:

[notacon]

BTW....The Buffalo News (one year ago) published all the trades Beane conducted involving draft picks.


Bills GM Brandon Beane has made 34 trades involving draft picks. (https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/bills-gm-brandon-beane-has-made-34-trades-involving-draft-picks-here-is-the-rundown/article_82e671ca-d572-11ed-8664-9f29cb144750.html)


Here is the rundown of his deals:

July 26, 2017: Traded quarterback Cardale Jones to the then-San Diego Chargers in exchange for a 2018 conditional seventh-round pick (later traded to Carolina).

Aug. 11, 2017: Acquired CB E.J. Gaines and a 2018 second-round pick (later traded to Tampa Bay) from the Los Angeles Rams for WR Sammy Watkins and a 2018 sixth-round pick.

Aug. 11, 2017: Traded CB Ronald Darby to Philadelphia for WR Jordan Matthews and a third-round pick from Philadelphia (No. 96, used to select DT Harrison Phillips).

Aug. 28, 2017: Traded LB Reggie Ragland to Kansas City for a 2019 fourth-round pick (No. 131, flipped to Washington).

Sept. 2, 2017: Traded CB Kevon Seymour to Carolina for WR Kealin Clay and a 2019 seventh-round pick (No. 228, used to select TE Tommy Sweeney).

Oct. 17, 2017: Traded DT Marcell Dareus to Jacksonville for a conditional sixth-round draft pick that became a fifth-round pick (No. 166, used to select OL Wyatt Teller).

Oct. 31, 2017: Traded a third-round pick that belonged to the Bills and seventh-round pick that originally belonged to the Chargers to Carolina for WR Kelvin Benjamin.

March 14, 2018: Traded QB Tyrod Taylor to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for 2018 third-round draft choice (later traded to Baltimore and then Oakland).

March 14, 2018: Traded T Cordy Glenn to Cincinnati, a 2018 first-round pick (later traded to Tampa Bay) and a 2018 sixth-round pick (No. 187, used to select Ray-Ray McCloud) in exchange for a 2018 first-round pick and a 2018 fifth-round pick.

April 24, 2018: Traded a 2018 first-round pick (No. 12, obtained from the Bengals), and two second-round picks (No. 53; and No. 56, obtained from the Rams) to Tampa Bay for a first-round pick (No. 7, used to select QB Josh Allen) and a seventh-round pick (No. 255, used to select WR Austin Proehl).

April 24, 2018: Traded a first-round pick (No. 22, obtained from Chiefs) and a third-round pick (No. 65, obtained from Browns) to Ravens for a first-round pick (No. 16, used to select LB Tremaine Edmunds) and a fifth-round pick (No. 154, used to select DB Siran Neal).

Aug. 5, 2018: Traded a 2020 seventh-round draft pick to the Cleveland Browns for WR Corey Coleman.

Sept. 1, 2018: Traded QB AJ McCarron to the Oakland Raiders for a 2019 fifth-round draft pick that Oakland acquired from the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Sept. 25, 2018: Traded T Marshall Newhouse to the Carolina Panthers for a 2021 conditional seventh-round draft pick No. 236, used to select OL Jack Anderson).

April 26, 2019: Traded a second-round pick (No. 40) and a fifth-round pick (No. 158) to the Oakland Raiders for a second-round pick (No. 38, used to select OL Cody Ford).

April 26, 2019: Traded two fourth-round picks (Nos. 112 and 131) to Washington for a third-round pick (No. 96, used to select TE Dawson Knox).

Aug. 29, 2019: Traded OL Wyatt Teller and a seventh-round pick to Cleveland for a fifth-round pick (used later in the Stefon Diggs trade) and a sixth-round pick (No. 188, used to select K Tyler Bass).

Aug. 30, 2019: Traded OL Russell Bodine to New England for a sixth-round pick (No. 207, used to select WR Isaiah Hodgins).

Oct. 8, 2019: Traded WR Zay Jones to Oakland for a 2021 fifth-round pick (No. 161, used to select OT Tommy Doyle).

March 20, 2020: Traded a first-round pick, fifth-round pick, sixth-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round pick to Minnesota for WR Stefon Diggs and a seventh-round pick (No. 239, used to select DB Dane Jackson).

March 16, 2021: Traded TE Lee Smith to Atlanta for a seventh-round pick (No.

231, used to select LB Baylon Spector).

May 1, 2021: Traded a fifth-round pick to Houston for two sixth-round picks (No. 203, used to select WR Marquez Stevenson and No. 213, used to select S Damar Hamilin).


Aug. 30, 2021: Traded DE Darryl Johnson to Carolina for a sixth-round pick (No. 185, used to select DB Christian Benford).

March 19, 2022: Traded a seventh-round pick to Cleveland for QB Case Keenum.

April 26, 2022: Traded a first-round pick (No. 25) and a fourth-round pick (No. 130) to Baltimore for a first-round pick (No. 23, used to select CB Kaiir Elam).

April 27, 2022: Traded a second-round pick (No. 57) to Tampa Bay for a second-round pick (No. 60 overall, flipped to Cincinnati) and a 2022 sixth-round pick (No. 180, used to select P Matt Araiza).

April 27, 2022: Traded a second-round pick (No. 60) to Cincinnati for a second-round pick (No. 63, used to select RB James Cook) and a 2022 sixth-round pick (No. 209, used to select OT Luke Tenuta).

Aug. 22, 2022: Traded G Cody Ford to Arizona for a 2023 fifth-round pick (No. 137, later flipped to Washington).

Nov. 1, 2022: Traded RB Zach Moss and a fifth-round pick (No. 162) to Indianapolis for RB Nyheim Hines.

Nov. 1, 2022: Traded a seventh-round pick (No. 245) to Atlanta for S Dean Marlowe.

April 27, 2023: Traded a first-round pick (No. 27) and a fourth-round pick (No. 130) to Jacksonville for a first-round pick (No. 25, used to select TE Dalton Kincaid).

April 29, 2023: Traded a fifth-round pick (No. 137) to Washington for a fifth-round pick (No. 150, used to select WR Justin Shorter) and a sixth-round pick (No. 215, flipped to Los Angeles Rams).

April 29, 2023: Traded a sixth-round pick (No. 205) to Houston for a seventh-round pick (No. 230, used to select OL Nick Broeker) and a 2024 sixth-round pick.

April 29, 2023: Traded a sixth-round pick (No. 215) to Los Angeles Rams for a seventh-round pick (No. 252, used to select DB Alex Austin) and a 2024 sixth-round pick.


April 28, 2022: Traded a fifth-round pick (No. 168) and a sixth-round pick (No. 203) to Chicago for a fifth-round pick (No. 148, used to select WR Khalil Shakir).

[jamze132]

Like Josh Allen???? :rofl:

That trade worked. Tell me how many trades to pick top 10 QBs hasn’t.

And the only time I’d advocate to trade up in the first round is for a QB. What’s your point?

MY POINT is that you don’t know what you’re getting in ANY pick so why trade away assets to pick another player who may or may not pan out?

Scouting department is where the best money should be paid out.

[Woodman]

We have a plethora though.
20270

Guapo if you want the player you just take the player.

[Woodman]

Building a case for the Buffalo Bills to stand pat in the 2024 NFL Draft - Buffalo Rumblings (https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2024/4/17/24129561/building-a-case-for-the-buffalo-bills-to-stand-pat-in-the-2024-nfl-draft-cooper-dejean)

The Case for Standing PatMaking no trades isn’t in Brandon Beane’s nature, but in some ways, it might not be a terrible strategy this year. Patience is a virtue, and if the Bills are patient, there is a world where they’ll still add 10 quality football players to their roster this year. Yes, 10 seems like a lot of rookies to expect to make the roster, but given Buffalo’s salary cap situation for the 2024 season, it isn’t the worst plan to assume that there will be multiple low-cost, high-upside athletes who can fill in the back end of the roster.

[Woodman]

This also doesn’t mean that the Bills won’t be able to find immediate starters at the spots where they currently pick in the draft. The Bills can still search for high-impact players at No. 28 and No. 60, and given their needs elsewhere, they can fill in the rest of those spots early on Day 3 of the draft.
If the Bills trade up in the draft, they’ll secure a coveted player, but they’ll also limit the number of rookies they can add to the roster. If the Bills trade down, they can add quantity to the roster, but it’s likely that they’ll do so at the expense of quality players. This is the “happy medium” scenario, the one where Buffalo can still address their biggest needs while also keeping draft capital for the future.

[notacon]

That trade worked. Tell me how many trades to pick top 10 QBs hasn’t.

And the only time I’d advocate to trade up in the first round is for a QB. What’s your point?

MY POINT is that you don’t know what you’re getting in ANY pick so why trade away assets to pick another player who may or may not pan out?

Scouting department is where the best money should be paid out.

No risk, no reward.

My point is that you would make a crappy GM with closed minded, narrow vision with predetermined mindset that "the only time I’d advocate to trade up in the first round is for a QB.".

Thankfully, you are NOT the Bills GM, and Brandon Beane is.

[jamze132]

No risk, no reward.

My point is that you would make a crappy GM with closed minded, narrow vision with predetermined mindset that "the only time I’d advocate to trade up in the first round is for a QB.".

Thankfully, you are NOT the Bills GM, and Brandon Beane is.

So you’re saying you have to take a risk to get a reward… lol

Sit down.

[kgun12]

Jeez, how'd the risk reward idea work for the Ditka/R. Williams trade or the H. Walker trade work for Minnesota? When you look at the percentage of first round busts, trading a lot of picks to move up is silly!

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High
More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

By Warren Ludford@wludford Apr 26, 2022, 8:53pm CDT 48 Comments / 48 New

Five years ago I did a piece detailing how most draft picks are busts, based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:

16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
12.3% were considered good

[Historian]

I think they will move up seven or eight spots in the first round and take the Thomas kid from LSU.

[YardRat]

So 34 trades and we have three players still with the team beyond their first contract (Allen, Knox, Bass), and zero conference championships.

Is that 'good'?

[notacon]

So you’re saying you have to take a risk to get a reward… lol

Sit down.


Jesus.

Your misrepresenting what I write is almost comical. I did NOT say that "you have to take a risk to get a reward". Why do you feel the need to misrepresent what I write??!?!?

What I am saying is that a "closed minded, narrow vision with predetermined mindset" is the trait of a terrible GM that will to have the job of GM for long.

Being a chicken **** coward, and terrible GM is one who has the mindset of "Why trade away multiple picks to move up for a guy that might not pan out?"

[notacon]

So 34 trades and we have three players still with the team beyond their first contract (Allen, Knox, Bass), and zero conference championships.

Is that 'good'?

Hmmmmmm. A team that has the second longest current consecutive playoff appearances (five, KC is #1 with nine) and the second longest consecutive division titles (four, KC is #1 with eight) is "not good"?!?!?

It's a false that "three players still with the team beyond their first contract". What about....

Matt Milano
Dion Dawkins
Siran Neal
Taron Johnson
Ed Oliver
AJ Epenesa

All of those players (except Neal) are backbone starters.

Besides the fact that all the players drafted in 2021, 2022 & 2023 are not "beyond their first contract" because they don't have to be.

Many of those players are either already backbone starters or looking very good that they will be.....

Greg Rousseau
Spencer Brown
James Cook
Terrel Bernard
Kahlil Shakir
Christian Benford
O'Cyrus Torrence
Dalton Kincaid

That's 15 out of 22 starters (not including Bass)

Your observation is rather silly and misleading.

[notacon]

Besides the fact that many of the trades Beane did are also important starters. Not counting the newsts players that sure lok like they will be important starters....Curtis Samuel & Mike Edwards.

McGovern
Von Miller
Rasul Douglas
David Edwards
DaQuan Jones

All in all, it looks like extremely competent and skilled TEAM building that has resulted in one of the bets teams in the NFL, despite them not getting over the playoff hump YET.

[kgun12]

Hmmmmmm. A team that has the second longest current consecutive playoff appearances (five, KC is #1 with nine) and the second longest consecutive division titles (four, KC is #1 with eight) is "not good"?!?!?

It's a false that "three players still with the team beyond their first contract". What about....

Matt Milano
Dion Dawkins
Siran Neal
Taron Johnson
Ed Oliver
AJ Epenesa

All of those players (except Neal) are backbone starters.

Besides the fact that all the players drafted in 2021, 2022 & 2023 are not "beyond their first contract" because they don't have to be.

Many of those players are either already backbone starters or looking very good that they will be.....

Greg Rousseau
Spencer Brown
James Cook
Terrel Bernard
Kahlil Shakir
Christian Benford
O'Cyrus Torrence
Dalton Kincaid

That's 15 out of 22 starters (not including Bass)

Your observation is rather silly and misleading.

How many on these lists did Bean risk more draft picks for the rewards from them. and when almost 70% of first round picks are a bust (post #43), why would teams risk using more draft choice to move up. The better odds is to draft more players in hope of find that one good players. Strength in numbers theory.

[YardRat]

Hmmmmmm. A team that has the second longest current consecutive playoff appearances (five, KC is #1 with nine) and the second longest consecutive division titles (four, KC is #1 with eight) is "not good"?!?!?

It's a false that "three players still with the team beyond their first contract". What about....

Matt Milano
Dion Dawkins
Siran Neal
Taron Johnson
Ed Oliver
AJ Epenesa


All of those players (except Neal) are backbone starters.

None of those players were listed as being involved with the trades referenced, and Neal is gone.

Besides the fact that all the players drafted in 2021, 2022 & 2023 are not "beyond their first contract" because they don't have to be.

Many of those players are either already backbone starters or looking very good that they will be.....

Greg Rousseau
Spencer Brown
James Cook
Terrel Bernard
Kahlil Shakir
Christian Benford
O'Cyrus Torrence
Dalton Kincaid

That's 15 out of 22 starters (not including Bass)

Your observation is rather silly and misleading.

Yeah the jury is still out on the younger guys involved in the trades. We'll see.

And my statement is factually correct.

[Bill Cody]

It's all going to depend on who is there at 28 when we get to pick if we'll be wise to consider trading down. That's why you have a GM that knows what we need and a draft board that assigns hopefully accurate values.

Do I hope someone slips a Xanax into Beane's coffee on draft night? Of course. And give the man a brown paper bag when the draft gets into the 20's. Since we're in a semi rebuild burning picks this year is not ideal. You'd feel better if we still had our third. But ideally you grab Mitchell at 28 and another starter at 60. Then if Beane wants to slide around like a pole dancer have at it.

[kgun12]

It's all going to depend on who is there at 28 when we get to pick if we'll be wise to consider trading down. That's why you have a GM that knows what we need and a draft board that assigns hopefully accurate values.

Do I hope someone slips a Xanax into Beane's coffee on draft night? Of course. And give the man a brown paper bag when the draft gets into the 20's. Since we're in a semi rebuild burning picks this year is not ideal. You'd feel better if we still had our third. But ideally you grab Mitchell at 28 and another starter at 60. Then if Beane wants to slide around like a pole dancer have at it.

Yes! Hopefully someone in the war room has Xanax and a paper bag.

[notacon]

How many on these lists did Bean risk more draft picks for the rewards from them. and when almost 70% of first round picks are a bust (post #43), why would teams risk using more draft choice to move up. The better odds is to draft more players in hope of find that one good players. Strength in numbers theory.

It is false that "70% of first round picks are a bust". Citing information from a fan site is useless. Of course that does depend on how one defines "bust".

Although there is some evidence that "teams risk using more draft choice to move up.", that is not a given. Sometimes that risk pays off, sometimes it does not. My point is to reject doing so out of hand is silly, narrow minded and would show gross incompetence by a GM.

There are "busts" up and down the draft. It is a fact that the bust rate increases with every round. I've researched this in the past....I'm on the raod right now vitiing family so I do not have to time to resurrect my findings.

It's a fact that drafting, in and of itself, is a very, very difficult thing to do.

[notacon]

None of those players were listed as being involved with the trades referenced, and Neal is gone.


Yeah the jury is still out on the younger guys involved in the trades. We'll see.

And my statement is factually correct.


Seriously?!?! You really want to confusingly parse what you wrote??


Me missing Neal actually proves my point even more.


My post is factually correct as well.

[kgun12]

It is false that "70% of first round picks are a bust". Citing information from a fan site is useless. Of course that does depend on how one defines "bust".

Although there is some evidence that "teams risk using more draft choice to move up.", that is not a given. Sometimes that risk pays off, sometimes it does not. My point is to reject doing so out of hand is silly, narrow minded and would show gross incompetence by a GM.

There are "busts" up and down the draft. It is a fact that the bust rate increases with every round. I've researched this in the past....I'm on the raod right now vitiing family so I do not have to time to resurrect my findings.

It's a fact that drafting, in and of itself, is a very, very difficult thing to do.

I would agree if it was his opinion, but the numbers don’t lie, they either performed well or didn’t. It’s pretty easy to tell. A perfect example is P. Manny vs R. Leaf. J. Allen vs Rosen. Mike Williams, Cordy Gleen busts. Torrance Kincaid not busts!

[kgun12]

Not Glenn, Ford.

[Woodman]

I think they will move up seven or eight spots in the first round and take the Thomas kid from LSU.

Would love to land that guy!!

[notacon]

I would agree if it was his opinion, but the numbers don’t lie, they either performed well or didn’t. It’s pretty easy to tell. A perfect example is P. Manny vs R. Leaf. J. Allen vs Rosen. Mike Williams, Cordy Gleen busts. Torrance Kincaid not busts!

Yeah, the numbers do not lie.

The numbers show unequivocally that the idea that "70% of first round picks are a bust" is total bullcrap. 100%.

Mentioning "P. Manny vs R. Leaf. J. Allen vs Rosen. Mike Williams, Cordy Gleen busts." shows how insipid the premise is.

Having to go back to last century and with the "P Manny vs. R. Leaf" and "J. Allen vs Rosen" to disparage years and years of drafting, does not come close to validating that "70% of first round picks are a bust"

Cordy Glenn is a irrelevant example because he was not even a first found pick. Yes, Mike Williams was...but that happened TWENTY ONE YEARS ago. You literally cherry picked ONE Bills 1st round draftees that was a "bust".

The NFL has drafted approximately 1,800 first round players in the Super Bowl era. It is beyond STUPID to opine (the dumb fan "writer" you quoted) that 1,260 of those were "busts".

Jesus, even in the FIFTY SIX YEARS of Bills drafting (https://www.drafthistory.com/teams/bills.html), which 57 players, I count about (maybe) 12 "busts". Only 21%. And that is with many eras of crapping Bills drafting before the McBeane Era.

A more accurate and reasonable statement is that most likely "70% of first round picks are a NOT a bust"

[notacon]

Not Glenn, Ford.


No difference. Ford was not a first round pick either.

[YardRat]

Not Glenn, Ford.

Glenn Ford played for the Bills?

[kgun12]

Yeah, the numbers do not lie.

The numbers show unequivocally that the idea that "70% of first round picks are a bust" is total bullcrap. 100%.

Mentioning "P. Manny vs R. Leaf. J. Allen vs Rosen. Mike Williams, Cordy Gleen busts." shows how insipid the premise is.

Having to go back to last century and with the "P Manny vs. R. Leaf" and "J. Allen vs Rosen" to disparage years and years of drafting, does not come close to validating that "70% of first round picks are a bust"

Cordy Glenn is a irrelevant example because he was not even a first found pick. Yes, Mike Williams was...but that happened TWENTY ONE YEARS ago. You literally cherry picked ONE Bills 1st round draftees that was a "bust".

The NFL has drafted approximately 1,800 first round players in the Super Bowl era. It is beyond STUPID to opine (the dumb fan "writer" you quoted) that 1,260 of those were "busts".

Jesus, even in the FIFTY SIX YEARS of Bills drafting (https://www.drafthistory.com/teams/bills.html), which 57 players, I count about (maybe) 12 "busts". Only 21%. And that is with many eras of crapping Bills drafting before the McBeane Era.

A more accurate and reasonable statement is that most likely "70% of first round picks are a NOT a bust"

So I’m confused, your entire argument for Edmunds was his numbers, so are you finally admit the numbers lied, or do the numbers not lie? Can’t have it both ways, but some how you’ll find a way!

[Turf]

Definitely move up. I'd rather take a 1a- player over 3 c+ players. That simple for me. I can find c+ players anywhere.

[sahlensguy]

Definitely move back. 1st round value won't be there at 28. Would need to move up 10 spots for Brian Thomas Jr. We have no 3rd round pick. We don't have enough assets to justify it.

[Mad Max]

Definitely move back. 1st round value won't be there at 28. Would need to move up 10 spots for Brian Thomas Jr. We have no 3rd round pick. We don't have enough assets to justify it.

Those of us on this side of the fence are going to be disappointed a bit. I don’t think he holds his water this time either. He’s going to move up.

[sahlensguy]

Those of us on this side of the fence are going to be disappointed a bit. I don’t think he holds his water this time either. He’s going to move up.

This is most likely the case.

Hopefully Beane doesn't make it hurt too much!

[kgun12]

Those of us on this side of the fence are going to be disappointed a bit. I don’t think he holds his water this time either. He’s going to move up.

Yep, I know it's coming and it's still going to be disappointing!

[notacon]

So I’m confused, your entire argument for Edmunds was his numbers, so are you finally admit the numbers lied, or do the numbers not lie? Can’t have it both ways, but some how you’ll find a way!
That is 100% absolutely FALSE!!!!!!! I mean, either you never really read what my arguments were are you are purposely LYING.

Which one is it???

I barely and rarely mentioned Edmunds' "numbers".

What I DID bring up and cite, with links, over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again was what professional NFL experts, including NFL GM's NFL coaches, NFL scouts, NFL players, and NFL personnel experts and virtually every credible national sports media journalists have said about Edmunds that was 100% OPPOSITE of what so many ignorant Edmunds haters were saying.

One group (professional NFL experts, including NFL GM's NFL coaches, NFL scouts, NFL players, and NFL personnel experts and virtually every credible national sports media journalists) is and was credible the other small group (insipid Edmunds haters) are full of ****!

This was typified by 50+ professional NFL experts, including NFL GM's NFL coaches, NFL scouts, NFL players, and NFL personnel experts ranking him in top 10 of NFL LB's in 2020 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/29460392/ranking-nfl-top-10-linebackers-2020-best-hybrid-playmakers-d)….2021 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/31765336/ranking-nfl-top-10-linebackers-2021-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks), 2022 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/34168579/ranking-nfl-top-10-ball-linebackers-2022-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks-best-linebackers) AND 2023 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/37773470/ranking-nfl-top-10-ball-linebackers-2023-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks-best-linebackers) with the highest ranking in 2023 of #3.

I'm not "confused" with your blatant misrepresentation of what my arguments are because so may cannot refute what I ACTUALLY WRITE, so they MAKE **** UP, like you JUST DID!!!!

This kind of dishonesty is so ****ing insufferable and pathetic!!!


Back to the subject at hand. You're lamely doing a non-denial denial.

You cannot refute what I reasonably wrote...."The numbers show unequivocally that the idea that "70% of first round picks are a bust" is total bullcrap. 100%."....and you cannot defend the stupid opinion from a fan "writer" that "70% of first round picks are a bust" so you attack me with lying bullcrap.

Are you proud of your weasel mendicancy??

[Bill Cody]

Definitely move up. I'd rather take a 1a- player over 3 c+ players. That simple for me. I can find c+ players anywhere.

The only guy I'd be even willing to consider moving up for is Brian Thomas Jr. But to get him you'd need to move ahead of Pittsburgh at 20. It would cost the Bills 4th, 5th and 6th round picks to do this.

[sahlensguy]

The only guy I'd be even willing to consider moving up for is Brian Thomas Jr. But to get him you'd need to move ahead of Pittsburgh at 20. It would cost the Bills 4th, 5th and 6th round picks to do this.

I don't see a team willing to drop back that much in the 1st round for a swap and a bunch of day 3 picks. It will cost more than that. Plus BTJ may not drop past the Bengals at 18.

[Woodman]

I don't see a team willing to drop back that much in the 1st round for a swap and a bunch of day 3 picks. It will cost more than that. Plus BTJ may not drop past the Bengals at 18.

Agreed we'd need draft capital from 2025 to pull that one off.

[Bill Cody]

I got stuck in my office on Saturday because of an incident involving police nearby. There are a number of "draft simulators" online. I have to admit they are highly addictive. I had some good and some incredible fake drafts lol.

[Bill Cody]

What I learned playing with this it's good to know your needs but beyond that if you can avoid been married to certain players it really makes a huge difference. The programs will usually present you with 1-4 trade offers per pick. Often the answer is no but sometimes it's yes. When you end up getting the same player you were already hoping to get with a couple pick sweetener it's very fun. A couple of the drafts I did I ended up with 3-5 picks in the bank for next year while still addressing a boatload of current needs. Beane just needs to hold his water lol

[Bill Cody]

I don't see a team willing to drop back that much in the 1st round for a swap and a bunch of day 3 picks. It will cost more than that. Plus BTJ may not drop past the Bengals at 18.

Yeah quite possibly true. Or not.

[sahlensguy]

Yeah quite possibly true. Or not.

If Beane dropped back 8 or 10 spots to late in 1st round for 4th, a 5th and a 6th, we'd be calling for his head.

[Mad Max]

If Beane dropped back 8 or 10 spots to late in 1st round for 4th, a 5th and a 6th, we'd be calling for his head.
Well that scenario would be Whaley like in it’s gross negligence so yes.

[Bill Cody]

If Beane dropped back 8 or 10 spots to late in 1st round for 4th, a 5th and a 6th, we'd be calling for his head.

Every team is in a different situation. What's right for one is wrong for another. Maybe a team that's missed out on their primary target has another player in mind that will be available a bit later. If so, not taking the extra picks would be mismanagement.

[Mad Max]

Every team is in a different situation. What's right for one is wrong for another. Maybe a team that's missed out on their primary target has another player in mind that will be available a bit later. If so, not taking the extra picks would be mismanagement.

Trades are going to happen but your math is off on this one. Way off.

If Beane goes fishing he’s going to have to bring better bait to get BTJ than what you proposed.

The value chart would have us giving up all 7 of our rounds 4,5 and 6 picks to barely move up to 20. Higher than twenty and those picks aren’t even enough.

Would a team take all of those lower picks as opposed to 1 or 2 more premium picks? That in and of itself is debatable. I doubt it.

[Bill Cody]

Trades are going to happen but your math is off on this one. Way off.

If Beane goes fishing he’s going to have to bring better bait to get BTJ than what you proposed.

The value chart would have us giving up all 7 of our rounds 4,5 and 6 picks to barely move up to 20. Higher than twenty and those picks aren’t even enough.

Would a team take all of those lower picks as opposed to 1 or 2 more premium picks? That in and of itself is debatable. I doubt it.

You're right. Had the glasses off on that one.

[jamze132]

Definitely move up. I'd rather take a 1a- player over 3 c+ players. That simple for me. I can find c+ players anywhere.

A lot of teams considered Josh Rosen and Zach Wilson “1a” players. And no team thought enough to draft the GOAT until the 6th round. You just never know who’s going to turn out so take as many players as you can and don’t trade multiple “opportunities” for one you think will be better.

[Mad Max]

A lot of teams considered Josh Rosen and Zach Wilson “1a” players. And no team thought enough to draft the GOAT until the 6th round. You just never know who’s going to turn out so take as many players as you can and don’t trade multiple “opportunities” for one you think will be better.

Agreed but with a qualifier. I’d want to stack the odds in my favor.

70% of HOFers have come from rounds 1-3 those are the rounds I’d want to accumulate picks in.

After that it’s greatly diminishing returns.

[Woodman]

Agreed but with a qualifier. I’d want to stack the odds in my favor.

70% of HOFers have come from rounds 1-3 those are the rounds I’d want to accumulate picks in.

After that it’s greatly diminishing returns.


We might need an upgrade in our scouting department.

[kgun12]

I don't see a team willing to drop back that much in the 1st round for a swap and a bunch of day 3 picks. It will cost more than that. Plus BTJ may not drop past the Bengals at 18.

This is about what it would cost to move up high enough to gat one of the top three WR’s, it’s not a bunch of day three picks!


https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pff.com%2Fnews%2Fdraft-2024-nfl-mock-draft-significant-trades-rams-jayden-daniels&data=05%7C02%7C%7C505c45a72e4e4bbf7ef208dc63a0b9bf%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638494789181600781%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=n99MfPacqZs0RppKvCNejxbtBwTXKCDb9o%2BXoPkVLYo%3D&reserved=0

9. Buffalo Bills: WR Rome Odunze, Washington
Mock Trade: Bills receive Pick No. 9; Bears receive Picks Nos. 28, 60 and 133 and a 2025 first-round pick

The cost is way too much for this team!

[Mad Max]

This is about what it would cost to move up high enough to gat one of the top three WR’s, it’s not a bunch of day three picks!


https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pff.com%2Fnews%2Fdraft-2024-nfl-mock-draft-significant-trades-rams-jayden-daniels&data=05%7C02%7C%7C505c45a72e4e4bbf7ef208dc63a0b9bf%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638494789181600781%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=n99MfPacqZs0RppKvCNejxbtBwTXKCDb9o%2BXoPkVLYo%3D&reserved=0

9. Buffalo Bills: WR Rome Odunze, Washington
Mock Trade: Bills receive Pick No. 9; Bears receive Picks Nos. 28, 60 and 133 and a 2025 first-round pick

The cost is way too much for this team!
That would be heinous misconduct on Beanes part.

[sahlensguy]

That would be heinous misconduct on Beanes part.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't even a little worried.

[Mad Max]

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't even a little worried.

I don’t blame you. It might depend on whether or not Beanie is feeling the heat to get over the hump? I know in my bones that McDermott is on the hot seat…if Beane is as well then he might rip some whacky deal like this out of desperation.

[kgun12]

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't even a little worried.

Yeah, the thought of making this kind of trade would be almost criminal!

[Mad Max]

Yeah, the thought of making this kind of trade would be almost criminal!

Many adjectives would work, criminal, asinine, idiotic, moronic, ludicrous, ridiculous, foolish, sophmoric, dare I say malevolent?!

[kgun12]

Many adjectives would work, criminal, asinine, idiotic, moronic, ludicrous, ridiculous, foolish, sophmoric, dare I say malevolent?!

Besides ruining the entire weekend!

[Mad Max]

Besides ruining the entire weekend!

Indeed. I’m still holding out hope that we score a third round pick so that round is more entertaining for us.

[kgun12]

Indeed. I’m still holding out hope that we score a third round pick so that round is more entertaining for us.

Me too!

[Bill Cody]

I'm thinking there might be for the 1st time in the Ants in the Pants era that we move down, assuming a player we're targeting does not drop to us at 28.

I think NE will probably stand pat and pick a QB at 3 BUT if they grew some very big balls and traded with Minny for 11, 23 and a 2025 1st I could see them trying to move up from 34 to 28 to take Michael Penix if he's still there. That would net us an early 4th and a mid 6th in return to move down 6 spots. Might be worth it.

[Woodman]

I'm thinking there might be for the 1st time in the Ants in the Pants era that we move down, assuming a player we're targeting does not drop to us at 28.

I think NE will probably stand pat and pick a QB at 3 BUT if they grew some very big balls and traded with Minny for 11, 23 and a 2025 1st I could see them trying to move up from 34 to 28 to take Michael Penix if he's still there. That would net us an early 4th and a mid 6th in return to move down 6 spots. Might be worth it.

QB Drake Maye is who I expect the Patriots to draft we'll soon find out.

[Bill Cody]

QB Drake Maye is who I expect the Patriots to draft we'll soon find out.

I agree that's the most likely outcome. The owner wants a QB at 3. Think the guy operating as GM there without a contract is going to go against the owner? That would take enormous stones. I'm just thinking if they get on the clock and Minnesota offers them the bag they might blink and bite.

[Mad Max]

I agree that's the most likely outcome. The owner wants a QB at 3. Think the guy operating as GM there without a contract is going to go against the owner? That would take enormous stones. I'm just thinking if they get on the clock and Minnesota offers them the bag they might blink and bite.

One thing is a near certainty. That is that there will be much buffoonery in chasing after these bum QBs. I’ll be finger tenting like Mr. Smithers as I bask in my schadenfreude.

[Woodman]

Offensive line picks will be a plenty in round 1.

Could we go in that direction if the board dictates?

[sahlensguy]

Offensive line picks will be a plenty in round 1.

Could we go in that direction if the board dictates?

"Let the draft come to them"

Don't force it. Don't trade up.

Draft capitol is house money for Beane. He shouldn't be so nonchalant with it.

[notacon]

This is about what it would cost to move up high enough to gat one of the top three WR’s, it’s not a bunch of day three picks!


https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pff.com%2Fnews%2Fdraft-2024-nfl-mock-draft-significant-trades-rams-jayden-daniels&data=05%7C02%7C%7C505c45a72e4e4bbf7ef208dc63a0b9bf%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638494789181600781%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=n99MfPacqZs0RppKvCNejxbtBwTXKCDb9o%2BXoPkVLYo%3D&reserved=0

9. Buffalo Bills: WR Rome Odunze, Washington
Mock Trade: Bills receive Pick No. 9; Bears receive Picks Nos. 28, 60 and 133 and a 2025 first-round pick

The cost is way too much for this team!

Unless a player like that comes in and fuels the Bills to a Super Bowl win in 2024!!!!

The cost of moving up (or the "savings" of moving back) are irrelevant if the player you moved up for is a grand slam, or, conversely the player you moved back for (and the ones you ight have picked up in the trade) suck.

I am not advocating for moving up OR moving back. It's silly to have preconceived notions of what is best BEFORE the picking actually starts.

A GOOD GM (which Beane is) will be prepared for all contingencies, have a well thought our draft board (including trying to predict what other team's needs are and who they may be targeting) and ready to make a move (or stay put) depending on how the draft unfolds and doing what is best for the TEAM.

[Woodman]

Well we certainly got our answer last night.

[notacon]

Well we certainly got our answer last night.

Yep. Exactly what I said....A GOOD GM (which Beane is) will be prepared for all contingencies, have a well thought our draft board (including trying to predict what other team's needs are and who they may be targeting) and ready to make a move (or stay put) depending on how the draft unfolds and doing what is best for the TEAM.

Trading up or down (or staying pat) in and of itself is worthless and irrelevant.

Who they ACTUALLY PICK is all that matters.

The Bills moving back will be worthless IF they do not get some good players. Same for moving up.

It sure looks like Beane's guy was not there at #28 (or it was too expensive or not possible to move up to get him).

I suspect that they had their eye on Brain Thomas, and once Jax held #23, it made it difficult to move ahead of them (and probably too expensive).

[Woodman]

We moved down consistently when everybody thought the opposite would be the case ....... who is this Buffalo Bills GM disguising himself as Brandon Beane? :idunno: