Interesting take - Is it 2017 all over again for the Bills?

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Eric Wood podcast with Capaccio. Capaccio said the 2024 Bills reminds him of the 2017 Bills, and Wood added it would still be a bigger surprise that the 2017 Bills made playoff than the 2024 Bills winning the Superbowl.

2017, Beane traded away Cardale Jones, Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby, Reggie Ragland, Keyon Seymore, Marcel Dareus. Everyone thought we were tanking for a QB (most people here were scouting Darnold, Rosen that year).

2024, we traded Diggs, released White, Poyer, Hyde, Morse. Not much expectation and everyone expect to see Josh's output to dip without Diggs.

We shall see.

Another point Eric made but was on my mind about CJ Strout. We'll see the true color of Strout year 2. There are many QBs have instant success year 1 but being figured out in subsequent years. Personally though, I feel his number looked so good that more than likely he's real.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AlsUH1UOw

[Woodman]

Stroud is that who you meant?

[POTLAND PSILBYLO]

No

[Novacane]

Not much expectation? Speak for yourself! I expect them to win the east again and get knocked out of the playoffs by KC again. More of the same. I don't see a step back.

[Chet]

It would be a better comparison if we had a new coach, just like 2017.

Alas, we’re stuck with the clapper

[notacon]

That's a pretty tenuous observation.

The Bills needed a complete overhaul of the roster in 2017. They had so little talent, especially at QB. McD had a dumpster fire left by crappy HC Rex Ryan to clean up.

McD did a spectacular clean-up job.

The other huge difference is that McD is a very good coach, while he was just trying to impress a new culture in 2017.

The culture on the Bills today is stellar.

Today, the Bills have a very strong core and foundation both in the roster, coaching staff and GM office and the culture is 180 degrees different and more positive than what it was in 2017 when McD and Beane were just getting started.

McD is a strength. I don't buy the crapping over him like some posters.

[Chet]

He’s Marvin Lewis with a software upgrade.

And again, he’s a defensive HC in a league that has left them in the dust for awhile now

[Woodman]

No

did to. :roflmao:

[Woodman]

He’s Marvin Lewis with a software upgrade.

And again, he’s a defensive HC in a league that has left them in the dust for awhile now

Marvin ****in Lewis where is he now?

[Chet]

Marvin ****in Lewis where is he now?
Running a Jiffy Lube and keeping a vacancy open for McD

[YardRat]

Of course it's a re-boot similar to 2017, that's glaringly obvious.

The only difference is we have QB and coach in place.

[Goobylal]

It's not even close to 2017. For starters, they have an absolute stud at QB, who gives them a chance to win every game. And even without Diggs I'd take the current receivers over the pathetic bunch of stiffs (admittedly self-inflicted) they fielded in 2017, while they have a chance to draft a good one later this month. The OL was probably better at LG and C with Incognito and Wood but they are better at the other spots and Josh hides a lot of deficiencies. RBs are better now. And I'd also take Brady over Dennison at OC.

The big question is defense. They need a DE like Hughes or Floyd. Hopefully Von returns to form over a year-and-a-half removed from his ACL injury and surgery. And they need more depth at CB and S, although there are some players available in FA like Steven Nelson, Justin Simmons and Jamal Adams, while Micah Hyde is still out there.

[Mace]

Difference to me is that McDermott came in fresh with a motivational theme for a band of Gypsies. He's got no defense guru bag of tricks and his core vets have tuned out his clapping. It's an apathetic bunch now that figures it will be ok next week, if not the week after, or maybe next year clap clap clap....all good boys.

[notacon]

It's not even close to 2017. For starters, they have an absolute stud at QB, who gives them a chance to win every game. And even without Diggs I'd take the current receivers over the pathetic bunch of stiffs (admittedly self-inflicted) they fielded in 2017, while they have a chance to draft a good one later this month. The OL was probably better at LG and C with Incognito and Wood but they are better at the other spots and Josh hides a lot of deficiencies. RBs are better now. And I'd also take Brady over Dennison at OC.

The big question is defense. They need a DE like Hughes or Floyd. Hopefully Von returns to form over a year-and-a-half removed from his ACL injury and surgery. And they need more depth at CB and S, although there are some players available in FA like Steven Nelson, Justin Simmons and Jamal Adams, while Micah Hyde is still out there.

SPOT ON!!!!

Wikipedia publishes a yearly break down of every roster and coaching changes from year to year along with a full roster.

Take a look at the abysmal, crappy roster the Bills had in 2016 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Buffalo_Bills_season). The Bills 2023 roster was exponentially better.

2017 had them (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Buffalo_Bills_season) turning over a substantial portion of the 2016 roster. Complete 100% coaching change. Complete 100% front office change.

Here is the full list of the final 53 man roster of 2016 that were also on the final 53 man roster for 2017...


<tbody>
QB
Tyrod Taylor


RB
LeSean McCoy


WR
Brandon Tate


TE
Charles Clay


TE
Logan Thomas


TE
Nick O'Leary


G
Richie Incognito


C
Ryan Groy


G
John Miller


T
Jordan Mills


DE
Adolphus Washington


DE
Kyle Williams


LB
Lorenzo Alexander


LB
Preston Brown


OLB
Ramon Humber


P
Colton Schmidt

</tbody>

That is a SEVENTY PERCENT CHANGE.

No, 2024 (even before the draft and even close to final roster item) is not even close to 2017.

2017 was the first year of taking a broken, ****ty franchise that had missed the playoffs for SEVENTEEN YEARS (the longest non-playoff streak at that time and the second longest streak of ****tiness in post SB era history (New Orleans 20 years from 1967-1986) , and starting to turn it into a professional, well run, well coached team and a model franchise.

2024 is taking a very well run, very well coached (despite the cynics and whiners...the whole knowledgeable professional NFL knows that the Bills are a "very well coached team")....


...that has the second longest current consecutive playoff appearances (five, KC is #1 with nine) and the second longest consecutive division titles (four, KC is #1 with eight), and tweak it a little bit, get rid of the old, expensive vets and give elite Josh Allen better weapons around him than the under-performing Gabe Davis and the cancerous, whiny diva, crappy playoff NON-performing Diggs. <style>table {mso-displayed-decimal-separator:"\."; mso-displayed-thousand-separator:"\,";}tr {mso-height-source:auto;}col {mso-width-source:auto;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}td {padding-top:1px; padding-right:1px; padding-left:1px; mso-ignore:padding; color:black; font-size:11.0pt; font-weight:400; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Verdana, sans-serif; mso-font-charset:0; mso-number-format:General; text-align:general; vertical-align:bottom; border:none; mso-background-source:auto; mso-pattern:auto; mso-protection:locked visible; white-space:nowrap; mso-rotate:0;}.xl65 {border:.5pt solid windowtext;}</style>

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I think what they are talking about is in reference to different goal posts.

The 2017 goal is playoff. The roster should be considered under that context. Prior to 2017, we had better rosters; we had seasons that came so close to a playoff birth. BUT they never got over that hump. And in 2017, it appeared that they gutted it down to take a step backwards in order to take a leap forward (like gathering ammo towards getting a legit shot at a QB). But that team over-achieved - how many of you thought we were definitely going to have a top 10 pick in 2018, likely top 5 in 2018 at the beginning of that season (and they also have Chiefs 1st rounder to go wherever they want in 2018 draft)?

Today at where we are roster wise, we have been challenging to go to the Superbowl. We had better teams in recent years, we have been very close (like 13 seconds). BUT never got over the hump. It appears we give up this year, releasing big contributors during this run; taking hits from cap perspective so we can recharge in 2025.

The miracle of 2017 can happen again. We still have Allen. We may need some luck like in 2017. We may need veterans on their last legs, Von Miller - like Kyle Williams and McCoy of 2017, to play like they are capable to play. We may need the unsplash FA signings, Curtis Samuel, Mike Edwards etc., to pan out big time like Hyde and Poyer of 2017. We need at least a couple of significant contributors from the draft, like White, Dawkins, and Millano in 2017. It is possible, but I have to admit the odds are low. Just see what I listed for 2017. We needed all of them to happen in one season.

[Goobylal]

I think what they are talking about is in reference to different goal posts.

The 2017 goal is playoff. The roster should be considered under that context. Prior to 2017, we had better rosters; we had seasons that came so close to a playoff birth. BUT they never got over that hump. And in 2017, it appeared that they gutted it down to take a step backwards in order to take a leap forward (like gathering ammo towards getting a legit shot at a QB). But that team over-achieved - how many of you thought we were definitely going to have a top 10 pick in 2018, likely top 5 in 2018 at the beginning of that season (and they also have Chiefs 1st rounder to go wherever they want in 2018 draft)?

Today at where we are roster wise, we have been challenging to go to the Superbowl. We had better teams in recent years, we have been very close (like 13 seconds). BUT never got over the hump. It appears we give up this year, releasing big contributors during this run; taking hits from cap perspective so we can recharge in 2025.

The miracle of 2017 can happen again. We still have Allen. We may need some luck like in 2017. We may need veterans on their last legs, Von Miller - like Kyle Williams and McCoy of 2017, to play like they are capable to play. We may need the unsplash FA signings, Curtis Samuel, Mike Edwards etc., to pan out big time like Hyde and Poyer of 2017. We need at least a couple of significant contributors from the draft, like White, Dawkins, and Millano in 2017. It is possible, but I have to admit the odds are low. Just see what I listed for 2017. We needed all of them to happen in one season.

No, the comparison was in terms of getting rid of talent. The difference is that most of the talent the Bills got rid of in 2017 was mostly players in their primes, whereas this past off-season it was mostly players past their primes. There's really no comparison.

[notacon]

No, the comparison was in terms of getting rid of talent. The difference is that most of the talent the Bills got rid of in 2017 was mostly players in their primes, whereas this past off-season it was mostly players past their primes. There's really no comparison.

The two biggest stars, that were in their prime, the Bills cut loose were Robert Woods (going into his 5th season) and of course, Stephon Gilmore (going into his 6th).

Gilmore signed a huge deal (for that time) with NE for 5 years $65M. Average of $13M per year. Although this was not his cap number, that amount equaled 7.78% of 2017 $167M cap.

Robert Woods deal was not as huge, 5 years/#39M....but it made him one of the highest paid players of the LA Rams.

Interestingly, in 2017, NE also signed Bills RB Mike Gillislee for 2 years/$6.4M (pretty hefty) after both teams made him an offer. Buffalo declined to match NE's contract.

To sign him, NE gave up a 5th round draft pick, which the Bills used to draft Matt Milano.

[Goobylal]

The two biggest stars, that were in their prime, the Bills cut loose were Robert Woods (going into his 5th season) and of course, Stephon Gilmore (going into his 6th).

Gilmore signed a huge deal (for that time) with NE for 5 years $65M. Average of $13M per year. Although this was not his cap number, that amount equaled 7.78% of 2017 $167M cap.

Robert Woods deal was not as huge, 5 years/#39M....but it made him one of the highest paid players of the LA Rams.

Interestingly, in 2017, NE also signed Bills RB Mike Gillislee for 2 years/$6.4M (pretty hefty) after both teams made him an offer. Buffalo declined to match NE's contract.

To sign him, NE gave up a 5th round draft pick, which the Bills used to draft Matt Milano.

Gilmore and Woods were UFAs. Neither wanted to be back (Gilmore never wanted to be there in the first place). And Woods was a good WR but I never imagined he'd put up the numbers he did.

The other guys in their prime were Watkins, and arguably Dareus and Darby.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Correct. Both Woods and Gilmore were UFAs. I bet if Beane were the Bills GM at the time, he'd find a way to get a pick for Gilmore, like franchise tag then work out a trade. Plenty of suitors, probably not to the tune of a 1st round pick, but would be a high pick.

[Goobylal]

Correct. Both Woods and Gilmore were UFAs. I bet if Beane were the Bills GM at the time, he'd find a way to get a pick for Gilmore, like franchise tag then work out a trade. Plenty of suitors, probably not to the tune of a 1st round pick, but would be a high pick.

I doubt it. Look at what Sneed went for and he's won 3 SBs with the Chefs.

[Gibby 2.0]

He’s Marvin Lewis with a software upgrade.

And again, he’s a defensive HC in a league that has left them in the dust for awhile now

Jack Pardee, these past few teams just feels like the early 90s Oilers. Ungodly talented on both sides of the ball and yet still can't get past the elites in the conference. I do mean Jack Pardee, the 91 Oilers get past Denver they probably beat us and they matched up very well against Washington, hell they went to OT at RFK in the regular season, but in the playoffs? They just could not keep double digit leads.

Anyways, my expectations are that Beane trades up, he always makes a trade, or he trades for an established star (probably overpays, see the Edmunds and Diggs trades) and that yet again this team wins the division and underperforms in the playoffs.

I love the team McD and Beane have built, and in the regular season I love McD, but in the playoffs every year I know that the heartbreak is coming and coming soon. The only fairly painless playoff loss this team had was the Cincy game. Every other one, they either had leads, went the distance and then crushed us all by last second ****ups.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I doubt it. Look at what Sneed went for and he's won 3 SBs with the Chefs.
You may be right. I probably let Gilmore's post FA signing career clouded judgement. But it is true that if anyone knows the franchised guy you are signing will be an NFL Defensive Player of the Year, a near MVP for a super bowl (I still believe he and Edelman should share that honor), teams will line up to give you a high pick.

Let's see what Mr. Sneed will do in Tennessee. I'm betting against a Gilmore type of impact, probably a general consensus.

[Goobylal]

You may be right. I probably let Gilmore's post FA signing career clouded judgement. But it is true that if anyone knows the franchised guy you are signing will be an NFL Defensive Player of the Year, a near MVP for a super bowl (I still believe he and Edelman should share that honor), teams will line up to give you a high pick.

Let's see what Mr. Sneed will do in Tennessee. I'm betting against a Gilmore type of impact, probably a general consensus.

The only way to have traded Gilmore was to franchise him since his rookie deal was up. But McD assessed the team and knew who he wanted to keep and who he didn't and Gilmore was the latter. I have no doubt that Gilmore/his agent made it known that if he were franchised, he would sit out. And when a team has to give a player a huge new contract, the draft pick compensation goes down.

McD made the right decision. While a draft pick would have been nice, the team was put on the right path by getting rid of him and other malcontents.

[notacon]

Gilmore and Woods were UFAs. Neither wanted to be back (Gilmore never wanted to be there in the first place). And Woods was a good WR but I never imagined he'd put up the numbers he did.

The other guys in their prime were Watkins, and arguably Dareus and Darby.

I know they were UFA. The point is that Bills cut them loose.

The "prime" of "Watkins, and arguably Dareus and Darby." was close to ****. Especially Watkins. The trade and decision to draft him was one of stupidest in Bills history...and there is a lot of competition for that before McBeane turned this franchise around from a laughingstock to a model to be emulated.

A reminder on just how awful the Watkins debacle was.

In 2014 the Bills sent the 9th overall in 2014 along with (inexplicably) 2015 1st and 4th round picks for the right to move up 5 spots to draft the porcelain doll Watkins. On the board when they picked Watkins at #4 were...

Khalil Mack
Mike Evans
Odell Beckham
Aaron Donald

Watkins NEVER started a whole 16 or 17 game season after his underwhelming rookie season. GM Doug Whaley made this ****ty move to try and salvage his other ****ty move the year before by panicking and reaching for EJ Manuel at #16 when he was more suited as a 3rd round project.

Ostensibly...or should I say....obstinately....desperately tried to prop up the crappy Manuel by giving him a supposedly elite WR. :rofl: Watkins had elite speed and literately little else.

Whaley's record of drafts between 2013 and 2016 were terrible.

Beane traded away Watkins and Darby (the other player you mention as being in his "prime") with those trades defining and transforming what the Bills would become.

Beane sent Watkins and a 2018 6th round pick to LA Rams in exchange for the Rams 2018 2nd round pick and EJ Gaines. He sent Darby to Philly for a 3rd round pick and WR Jordan Matthews.

With extra day 2 picks in his pocket, it set up Beane to do all the maneuvering to move up in 2018 to draft Josh Allen. After trading Gordy Glenn and the Bills 2018 #21 (and a 2018 5th round) to Cincy for 2018 #12 overall (and their 2018 6th).

To get to #7 overall to get Allen, Beane sent the #12 (from the Cincy deal) #53 and #56 they got in the Watkins deal, to make the best draft pick of the Bills in decades.

In addition, Beane used the pick he got for Darby to draft Harrison Philips.

Getting rid of Watkins and Darby (in their "prime") and letting Gilmore and Woods walk were just what the Bills needed.

[Goobylal]

I know they were UFA. The point is that Bills cut them loose.

The "prime" of "Watkins, and arguably Dareus and Darby." was close to ****. Especially Watkins. The trade and decision to draft him was one of stupidest in Bills history...and there is a lot of competition for that before McBeane turned this franchise around from a laughingstock to a model to be emulated.

A reminder on just how awful the Watkins debacle was.

In 2014 the Bills sent the 9th overall in 2014 along with (inexplicably) 2015 1st and 4th round picks for the right to move up 5 spots to draft the porcelain doll Watkins. On the board when they picked Watkins at #4 were...

Khalil Mack
Mike Evans
Odell Beckham
Aaron Donald

Watkins NEVER started a whole 16 or 17 game season after his underwhelming rookie season. GM Doug Whaley made this ****ty move to try and salvage his other ****ty move the year before by panicking and reaching for EJ Manuel at #16 when he was more suited as a 3rd round project.

Ostensibly...or should I say....obstinately....desperately tried to prop up the crappy Manuel by giving him a supposedly elite WR. :rofl: Watkins had elite speed and literately little else.

Whaley's record of drafts between 2013 and 2016 were terrible.

Beane traded away Watkins and Darby (the other player you mention as being in his "prime") with those trades defining and transforming what the Bills would become.

Beane sent Watkins and a 2018 6th round pick to LA Rams in exchange for the Rams 2018 2nd round pick and EJ Gaines. He sent Darby to Philly for a 3rd round pick and WR Jordan Matthews.

With extra day 2 picks in his pocket, it set up Beane to do all the maneuvering to move up in 2018 to draft Josh Allen. After trading Gordy Glenn and the Bills 2018 #21 (and a 2018 5th round) to Cincy for 2018 #12 overall (and their 2018 6th).

To get to #7 overall to get Allen, Beane sent the #12 (from the Cincy deal) #53 and #56 they got in the Watkins deal, to make the best draft pick of the Bills in decades.

In addition, Beane used the pick he got for Darby to draft Harrison Philips.

Getting rid of Watkins and Darby (in their "prime") and letting Gilmore and Woods walk were just what the Bills needed.

Dareus was just 27 while Watkins was 24. Those are prime ages. Hindsight says they never fulfilled their promise but at the time, people thought they Bills were giving away top talent in their prime and tanking for a QB. And both could have just needed a change of scenery. I sparred with a Bills fan who I liken to the Uncle Rico of GMs who was saying it was a mistake to trade both. And both were under contract with the Bills, unlike Gilmore and Woods, who would need to have been tagged and paid a ton more money.

And yes, the moves made that year set the stage for the Bills' immediate and sustained success.

[sukie]

They may have been in their promise at 27 and 25 but that is merely chronological. There was. Thing showing any sort of upward trend in Watkins game and getting back a second felt kinda dirty and evil in its larceny. Darius could have been a true disruptive beast. It just never happened.

[Goobylal]

They may have been in their promise at 27 and 25 but that is merely chronological. There was. Thing showing any sort of upward trend in Watkins game and getting back a second felt kinda dirty and evil in its larceny. Darius could have been a true disruptive beast. It just never happened.

Yes, prime age-wise. Again the difference being guys like Hyde, Poyer, White and Diggs etc. are past 30 and on the decline.

[notacon]

Dareus was just 27 while Watkins was 24. Those are prime ages. Hindsight says they never fulfilled their promise but at the time, people thought they Bills were giving away top talent in their prime and tanking for a QB. And both could have just needed a change of scenery. I sparred with a Bills fan who I liken to the Uncle Rico of GMs who was saying it was a mistake to trade both. And both were under contract with the Bills, unlike Gilmore and Woods, who would need to have been tagged and paid a ton more money.

And yes, the moves made that year set the stage for the Bills' immediate and sustained success.

Dareus was huge disappointment if not an outright bust. Watkins WAS a bust.

It may be true that (some) "people thought they Bills were giving away top talent in their prime and tanking for a QB."....I sure was not one of them.

In hindsight it shows that McBeane knew exactly what they were doing.

Just like they do now with the much needed "reset", that I suspect, in hindsight (even as soon as the 2024 playoffs), will be seen as JUST what the Bills needed.

It will start next week with the much anticipated draft. This sure looks a lot like what Beane did to prepare to draft Josh Allen. This time it will be to reload in WR and S and some depth, probably at EDGE and DT.

Back to "people thought they Bills were giving away top talent in their prime and tanking for a QB". It's really interesting to go back and see exactly what "people" were saying at that time.

This is three months before the Bills DID trade Watkins...

Should the Bills Trade Sammy Watkins (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/237653-Should-The-Bills-Trade-Sammy-Watkins)

The thread starter said that "I'd be happy with a 2nd round pick in 2018." Which or course is what they got.

The post right after it said that "no one will trade for him...."

Of course, the broken record was saying the same crap back then...


This may come as a surprise to some of you, but we need players to put on the field. If we had traded Gilmore last year, who would have played CB? And how much would we have gotten for an average CB with just a year left on his contract?

Tyrod, Sammy, Dareus- we can cut/trade them but it's May. The draft is over and most of the best FA's already signed- who are we going to get that's equal or better before camp starts in 2 months?

After the Bills DID trade Watkins, here is that thread that has the reaction being somewhat mixed....most saying the "tank" was on, and other welcoming the trade....

Bills Trade Sammy (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/238675-Bills-Trade-Sammy)

This post is hilarious in hindsight...


The tank is on!!!!

Sam Darnold in 2018!

This 'day two' thread is interesting too....

I like the trades a lot! (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/238695-I-like-the-trades-a-lot!)

The talk about the team being "downgraded" from the some of same people that are saying the same thing today. :rolleyes:


All of these predictions of doom and gloom were before the season started...before the roster was even close to being set. Just like today.

Fumy, but 2017 was the year the DROUGHT was finally ended. So the "tank" narrative was so silly.

Hat tip to Ingtar for this....


Personally I think Josh Allen is a better prospect, but we'll see how this season plays out.
Looking back sometimes is illuminating, and verifies my trepidation in valuing so many silly posts, especially those that put forward a definitive declaration as in 'this (fill in the blank...like..."the Bills will not make the playoffs this year" :rofl:) happen', when in reality, they don't have the first clue on what is going to happen.

I'm confident in taking most of what is said here with a grain of salt.