Playoff possibilities 11/12/03

[Patrick76777]

I’m going to get a lot of heat for this one. But that’s OK! I’m only doing this so we know our options. I fully understand that this team is playing like crap and that the playoffs are most likely a pipe dream. That being said, we’re 1 game out with 7 games to go. Despite our poor play, we’re still in the hunt thanks to the poor play of the other contenders. So what will it take?

There are many way for us to get in, including winning out, but we all know that ain’t going to happen. So let me give you what I think will be the easiest way.

Can we win our last 4 home games? As I’m sure we all know, this is a completely different team at home. We’ve fared very well in our home games over the past 2 years. Going 4-0 at home will not be easy! We should be able to beat Houston and the Jets. Miami has trouble in Buffalo in December so this could also be a win. The big question mark is next week against the Colts. This will not be an easy game. At the same time I don’t think it’s impossible to think we could win those 4 games.

If we could then just pull out the season finale against NE we could be 9-7 with a 4-2 Division record.

For this to happen we would need Miami to finish 4-3 with losses against NE any other team and Us (the play Baltimore, @ Dallas and Philly). This would put them at 9-7 with a 3-3 division record. And we would finish above them.

We would also need Denver to lose at least 3 games (they host KC and finish the year in Indy and GB) if they lose those 3 games and everything above happens, we would also finish above them.

We would also need Cincy to not finish the year any better then 4-3!

I’ll be back next week with more (even if we lose)!

[Patrick76777]

Now please quote Jim Mora
Call me crazy
Bash our coaching staff
Hate our QB
And point at anybody else you want.

[BAM]

Woohooo someone else still has hope!!!

[Patrick76777]

I think there's something wrong with me. As long as it's possible, I hold out hope. The offseason is much too long. I'm in no hurry to get back to it.

[ArcticWildMan]

Can you figure out a way to send some of that optimism up here to me? I sure could use some of it! I have ZERO faith in our ability to turn things around this season. As a matter of fact, I think it's gonna get a lot uglier before the season is done.

[Patrick76777]

I wouldn't call it optimism. I know it's probably not going to happen. But the possiblity is there and I'm just trying to figure out how we can do it.

I think we'll pound Houston but Indy will beat us by about 10 or so. We'll probably finish with 3 road losses and 2 Home wins. to finish 7-9

[socalfan]

It makes you wonder if parity in the league means something very different from what you would have imagined.

Is it possible that parity means most teams play like crap because of a lack of gelling?

Is it possible that parity means most teams play like crap because the salary cap gets rid of journeymen players and keeps mistake prone young guys around?

[Novacane]

Not going to give you heat for it Pat. Most of what you wrote I can see happening. All except the part about us getting to 9-7.
I can't see us beating NE. I could see us going 3-1 at home at the best. I think we beat Houston and Miami will lose to either Indy or the Jets. The Jets are a better team than we are right now.

[Mr. Miyagi]

I'm with you Patrick. We're gonna rock the heck out of Houston this weekend and people will come around.

Interesting thing is, we're 4-5 and Green Bay is 4-5. We're already talking about firing everyone, draft picks and rebuilding. Packer fans around here are still talking about winning the division.

The tale of Two Citites. :miyagi:

[Patrick76777]

And I hate to make excuses but our last 2 games, were on the road against teams with a combined record of 16-2!

[fabolouspaul]

Fact is, we're 1 game behind Miami and Denver for the final wildcard spot. Both Miami and Denver are 5-4 and are struggling. Lets hope Flutie does some more magic against Denver this Sunday

[Patrick76777]

Originally posted by fabolouspaul
Fact is, we're 1 game behind Miami and Denver for the final wildcard spot. Both Miami and Denver are 5-4 and are struggling. Lets hope Flutie does some more magic against Denver this Sunday


No doubt, I will NEVER turn down an extra week of Bills Playoff football!

someone has to get that last spot and I don't want it to be Denver or Miami!

All 3 teams have tough Schedules! And we have a shot at Miami.

[EM Bills Fan 80]

well even if we lose to Indy, I can see us beating the Giants in NY. Minus Shockey, Minus Will Peterson, Playing against Tiki Fumblitius Barber, and playing Jim Fassell who has never farred well in November as a coach and playing in a place where the FALCONS just went into and won. So that games eliminated us losing to Indy which gives 4 wins. I said It at the Bye week and Ill say it again, Im willing to gurantee out Playoff Hopes come down to the final game in NE.

[Patrick76777]

I just keep thinking that the NE game is going to mean something.

And I keep thinking that we may be heading down to NE 2 weeks in a row.

[socalfan]

Scarry thought.

[socalfan]

I think we can catch Miami if they keep playing B Griese. He has the same problems that Drew has....can't move much. And so, teams are playing against Miami with the same strategy that they play against the Bills. And it is starting to show up in Ricky Williams stats too.

[jaja54]

Word is Jay Fiedler will play as sson as he is ready due to the reasons you stated, i.e. better fit for this offense because our OLINE sucks and at least he can move around.

[Patrick76777]

If BG plays, Baltimore will beat Miami! The D is just too good. If JF plays, Miami will beat Balt and Wash over the next two weeks.


But They'll have trouble in Dallas, In New England and in Buffalo! 3 tough places to play. The Dallas game will be on 3 days prep and Dallas always had the advantage with that! The NE and Buffalo games are tough road division games in the cold. Those games could put the Fins at 9-7!

[The_Philster]

Originally posted by Patrick76777
I think there's something wrong with me. As long as it's possible, I hold out hope. The offseason is much too long. I'm in no hurry to get back to it.

We aleady knew there was something wrong with you. :snicker:

But seriously, we aren't out of it ...just that the coaching staff is working on getting us out of it.

[G. Host]

There is one additional thing you are forgetting - tie breaking rules vary whether there are 2 or more than 2 teams involved. You need to account for scenerios where Bills, Fins and Broncos all have same record.

[Historian]

It was a 9-7 Jacksonville team that knocked us out of the playoffs in 1996. If they could get on a hot streak, they have the talent to be dangerous. It isn't going to happen unless they change the pass first, run second philosphy on offense though.

[Patrick76777]

Originally posted by G. Host
There is one additional thing you are forgetting - tie breaking rules vary whether there are 2 or more than 2 teams involved. You need to account for scenerios where Bills, Fins and Broncos all have same record.


Didn't forget them at all!

Ties are broken in the division first. I assumed that we win all 3 division game and Miami loses to Us and in New England. We would be 4-2 and Miami will be 3-3. We would win and go on to the next tie-breaker against Denver. The way I laid it out, We would have a better conf. record and we would get the last spot.

[Patrick76777]

Originally posted by Billsology
It was a 9-7 Jacksonville team that knocked us out of the playoffs in 1996. If they could get on a hot streak, they have the talent to be dangerous. It isn't going to happen unless they change the pass first, run second philosphy on offense though.


Exactly! 6 of these last 7 games will be played in bad weather. Let's get running the ball.