Strength of Schedule

[LtBillsFan66]

Can anyone find anyone anywhere?

I was just checking out the ESPN power rankings when it hit me that we've played a tough schedule so far - and it isn't getting any easier...

In no way am I relived, but it puts the losses is a better perspective.

We beat:
Pats (7-2)
Skins (4-5)
Bengals (4-5)
Jags (2-7)
Total (17-19) .472

We lost to:
Chiefs (9-0)
Cowboys (7-2)
Philly (6-3)
Dolphins (5-4)
Jets (3-6)
Total (30-15) .667

Grand total (47-34) .580

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/powerranking

I don't know. Sort of thinking "out loud."

[Patrick76777]

Our last two games, both on the road, were against teams with a combined record of 16-2!

[Ebenezer]

According to Jeff Sagarin our SOS is the 5th toughest.

Houston
Jacksonville
New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Buffalo

NE is 9th
Miami is 13
NYJ is 14
Kansas City??? 28th!!

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl03.htm

[Stewie]

Hey guys this could be the most misleading stat in football.

If you beat more teams, your strength of schedule looks weaker. If you go 0-16, your strength of schedule looks stronger.

If you want to make that kind of comparison, you have to throw out the the games we played against them and then try to compare records against common opponents.

[mybills]

Here's another one for the records...

Last week end a Pat's fan said to me, "NE has a tougher schedule than the Bills." Then he went on to say, "NE is going to be in the SB again this year."

I laughed so hard I my out!

[LtBillsFan66]

Originally posted by paulB
Hey guys this could be the most misleading stat in football.

If you beat more teams, your strength of schedule looks weaker. If you go 0-16, your strength of schedule looks stronger.

If you want to make that kind of comparison, you have to throw out the the games we played against them and then try to compare records against common opponents.

True, that's why if I were to calculate it, I would subtract the win or loss against teams we played.

[stuckincincy]

SOS isn't what it used to be. Last year, b'gals had the 3th or 4th weakest. PHG had the weakest. CIN ended up 2-14. Don't recall what PGH ended up - but in the positions, Bills were 1st or 2nd in SOS last year and ended, what, 8 - 8? Dumb play against KC deep-sixed 'em last year.

I think in the FA era SOS means less than it used to be. The split into 4 div's per conference has a big effect - in division record means a lot which is where the Bills will fall if by chance they get back into the race. The local cincy rags were decrying the b'gals SOS - 16th, middle of the pack this year. They're 4-5, same as the bills.

[The_Philster]

Originally posted by mybills
I laughed so hard I my out!

That's alcohol abuse

[Typ0]

Originally posted by paulB
Hey guys this could be the most misleading stat in football.

If you beat more teams, your strength of schedule looks weaker. If you go 0-16, your strength of schedule looks stronger.

If you want to make that kind of comparison, you have to throw out the the games we played against them and then try to compare records against common opponents.

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?s=&threadid=7758

This is not about common opponents but I thought it was interesting.

[Typ0]

Looks like I killed yet another thread with the SOS analysis. I'm really starting to like it .

[LtBillsFan66]

Originally posted by Typ0
Looks like I killed yet another thread with the SOS analysis. I'm really starting to like it .

You need to explain further how you derive your analysis. I'm no dummy, and I don't have a clue how you are calculating those. Decile? Playoff team??? What do those #s represent?

[SABURZFAN]

Originally posted by billsfanone
I'm no dummy

the jury is still out on that one.:snicker2:

[The_Philster]

Originally posted by SABURZFAN
the jury is still out on that one.:snicker2:

[Typ0]

playoff team is a dummy variable that represents the teams that made the playoffs. The 1s made the playoffs.

Decile are just the rankings of the teams (ordered by strength of schedule) broken down into groups of ten. Notice how half of the teams in the third decile made the playoffs...hence that decile is said to perform better than the first two. Technically, a decile is ten percent of the observations...hence there is ten deciles in a data set....but there are not enough observations to utilize this technique with any statistical confidence so I just broke the 32 teams down into groups of ten. Also notice how out of those last two teams one made the playoffs and actually went on to win the SB. I would suggest this may mean that if there were 40 teams 6-8 of the ten that had the weakest schedule would make the playoffs.

It clearly indicates that teams with a weaker schedule have a greater tendency to make the playoffs.

Also note that these statistics are calculated before a team plays their opponent...so the outcome of that game has no bearing on the strength of schedule unless it is an interdivision game and the two teams will play twice in the season.

Quantititative analysis does take some effort to understand both when designing and interpreting it...but there is a payoff. I will do this again when the playoffs start this season and we will see the same results I would expect.

I have seen a lot of people look up numbers on web pages and claim they are doing analysis...in some ways they are. But this is the best analysis of SOS and a teams ability to make the playoffs that I have seen anywhere...and I'm not just saying that because I put it together. The methodology is sound and the results are clear.

Once you correct the error of the Steelers making the playoffs not the Rams the data is even more telling.

Finally, the bottom table shows the Bills SOS based on last years schedule before the season started. It indicates we were going to have a tough time making the playoffs this season but also uses last years SOS.

You can click the link in that thread and get the corrected spreadsheet. You will not see all the teams schedules and the breakdowns in the file because it was done utlizing an RDBMS. I'll see if I can dig up the queries that analyze the data if that means anything to anyone.

[Sabre Ally]

Typ0, that explanation was magnificent.

(Translation - I understand aboot 10% of it. lol)