Bills' draft position

[TigerJ]

With the loss to Miami, Buffalo now looks like it will be drafting in around the 12 or 13th spot if the season were to end after week 16. Just a quick calculation that is probably wrong, the worst spot that Buffalo can end up with if all the teams that are just ahead of them in the standings lose and Buffalo figures out how to play offence and wins next week is 17th. The best spot they could end up with if everyone with the same record, or one more loss than Buffalo loses next week is 11th.

[Ebenezer]

go 6-10 and not even get a top 10 choice...that is bad.

[Nighthawk]

If the season ended today the Bills would pick 15th. Strength of schedule plays in to tie-breakers and the Bills schedule was one of the tougher schedules, so they would actually move down and not up...that blows!

[Jan Reimers]

Who cares? Last year's draft was an absolute disaster. One more like that and we'll be 3-13 again next season.

I would like us to get 1 impact player in this draft, rather than a bunch of maybes and backups.

[lordofgun]

Originally posted by Jan Reimers
Who cares? Last year's draft was an absolute disaster. One more like that and we'll be 3-13 again next season.

I would like us to get 1 impact player in this draft, rather than a bunch of maybes and backups.

I disagree that the draft was a disaster. In fact, it's too early to judge any team's draft less than a year after the draft.

[ryguy8161]

If the season ended today we would be drafting 13th. San Francisco and Chicago both won today, which pushes us up from last weeks 15th spot.

Next week, if both the Jets and Steelers win and we loose, we'll have I believe the 11th pick. Can anyone confirm that?

[TigerJ]

I was just going to come back and post the update. You beat me, ryguy. I agree, Buffalo is now at #13.

Your calculations on what it takes for Buffalo to get to 11 agree with mine too. Pittsburgh and the Jets both have weaker schedules than ours, so they get the tiebreaker in determining first round draft order. We can't pass anyone with 10 losses even if they win next week because Buffalo has one of the hardest schedules in the league. We basically lose the draft order tiebreaker with any other team. We draft after anyone else with the same record.

BTW, the Steelers ar at Baltimore with Jamal Lewis chasing the single season rushing title. The Jets are at Miami. Unless Miami suffers a "we didn't make the playoffs" letdown, I think we'll be stuck at 13th in round one. I don't see Baltimore losing.

[lordofgun]

And some of you wanted to win today.

[baalworship]

Ryguy: You are correct. The draft order is based on win % of the opposition. Buffalo has the toughest schedule based on that and will lose all tie-breakers to teams that finish with similar records. The good news is that San Francisco and Chicago won, moving them to 7 wins and behind us. Other teams that can move behind us next week are the Jets and Pittsburgh. We are now guaranteed to draft at least as high as 13, with 11 the highest we can draft, nless we bench Bledsoe next week!


Here is before this week:

If the draft were held today after games December 14-15

Based on combined W-L % for all 16 opponents for each team....
(t) indicates tie subject to coin flip
# TEAM W-L OPP
W-L %
1. San Diego 3-11 .505
2. Arizona 3-11 .531
3. Atlanta 3-11 .554
4. Oakland 4-10 .513
5. Detroit 4-10 .527
6. (t)Jacksonville 4-10 .540
7. (t)Cleveland 4-10 .540
8. New York Giants 4-10 .567
9. Pittsburgh 5-9 .500
10. Washington 5-9 .536
11. Houston 5-9 .571
12. Chicago 6-8 .482
13. San Francisco 6-8 .505
14. New York Jets 6-8 .536
15. Buffalo 6-8 .585
16. (t)New Orleans 7-7 .496
17. (t)Tampa Bay 7-7 .496
18. Minnesota 8-6 .442
19. Cincinnati 8-6 .451
20. New England (from Baltimore) 8-6 .455
21. Seattle 8-6 .460
22. Green Bay 8-6 .491
23. Miami 8-6 .527
24. Carolina 9-5 .446
25. Dallas 9-5 .467
26. Denver 9-5 .500
27. Tennessee 10-4 .478
28. St. Louis 11-3 .411
29. Philadelphia 11-3 .482
30. Indianapolis 11-3 .487
31. Kansas City 12-2 .420
32. New England 12-2 .500

The last number is opp win %. We have the highest, or toughest schedule.

[ryguy8161]

I don't understand it. Why isn't it the other way around with the strength of schedule? Teams with the harder schedule should be allowed the higher pick right?

[baalworship]

The NFL draft is about letting the worst teams pick first. If two teams had the same record, but one team had a tough schedule, the team with the easier schedule is considered weaker and therfore gets to pick first. Sucks to be us!

[lordofgun]

Let's hope we get beat by NE.

[TigerJ]

I don't root for the Bills to lose, but we have to be considered a significant longshot to beat them in Foxboro.

[ryguy8161]

Can't they look at it as We have a more difficult schedule and still has the same record as the team with the easier scheldule. There for we are the weaker team who deserver the higher pick?

[HenryRules]

Originally posted by ryguy8161
Can't they look at it as We have a more difficult schedule and still has the same record as the team with the easier scheldule. There for we are the weaker team who deserver the higher pick?

I don't follow your logic. If one team can win 7 games against teams with a .600 winning percentage and another wins 7 games against teams with a .400 winning percentage, the team that won against .600 is better. I don't see any other way of looking at it.

I like the way the system works - it makes the most sense for deciding which team makes the playoffs and I think it'd be a bad idea to have one system of tiebreakers for team at the top of the standings and another for teams at the bottom.