After further review...

[Ingtar33]

...of the Raiders game, I'd like to make a few more observations about yesterday’s game and the Bills in general.

1) The Raiders, following the 10 year old book on Drew, blitzed extensively up the middle, in an attempt to get Drew moving. Like every team thus far they used a series of MLB and S blitzes to get that pressure. Unlike every other team we played, they didn't give up on the blitzing when the Bills proved that it wouldn't work. The result is for a 5 play stretch in the 4th quarter the Raiders got 2 sacks and forced Drew to go 0-3 with an INT (which was returned for a TD) and a 3 and out series (which the Raiders then drove down the field and scored again). The Bills righted the ship, and the Raiders didn't get close to Drew again... but the damage was done.

2) It might be time for Grey to drop his complicated 2-gap 46 Defense. At the moment we are on pace to break the 21 year old record set by the Baltimore Colts, for most points allowed by a team in one season. The book to play against the 46 was written in 1986 when teams discovered that if you played a spread O with a short passing game you could minimize the pressure. Since then the 46 has only been successful at times with the Buddy Ryan led Eagles of 1988-1991 (although I'm sure Reggie White might have had something to do with it), and again with the 1998-2000 Tennessee Titans (a team with much more talent and speed in its front seven than the bills currently have). Throughout history that D has required immense physical talent to work, otherwise it results in what we are seeing right now (from not just the Bills but also the Titans). Its time for Grey to simplify the D, and switch to a 1-gap cover two, or over to the old 2-gap 34 D we used to run. We just don't have the talent or speed to make this D work. On top of this all, London Fletcher (who has only known the 1-gap cover two) has struggled all year with the adjustment to a 2-gap approach, much like most 4-3 MLBs struggle with the conversion over to playing a 3-4 MLB.

3) Sunday we got to see what happens when an O thinks 3 points is not enough. With the Bills trailing by 4 with 9min left on 3rd and 8 from the Oakland 23, Bledsoe (forced out of the pocket) threw the game breaking INT on a pass (in a normal game) he would have tried to throw away. But since the Bills D had shown it couldn't stop the Raiders, Bledsoe forced the pass to Price. Welcome Drew, to the world Payton Manning resided in all last year… a world where 3 points or a punt is a game ending failure. Let’s hope he finishes the year better than Payton (who wilted as the season went on).

[Kelly The Dog]

Ingtar, I love your posts and almost always agree but on this one I must disagree. It seems to me that not only were we not playing a 46 at all but when the safeties WERE back in coverage and not in the box is when we were getting burnt (the two long Garner TDs and the deep Jerry Porter TD as examples). The safeties just blew the play. We rarely blitzed and when we did we got killed. I agree we dont have the talent to play this defense the way it needs to be played yet but we need to give it time. These players wouldnt be any better in any scheme. I was a Bills fan living in Phoenix when Ryan ran a 46 there, too, and that was an awesome defense. But like all defenses, it needs players. Every scheme has worked and has tanked in this league at times. Plus, IMO, Drew simply blew the pass. Had he thrown it six inches higher it was a completion to a wide open Peerless and who here didnt think we would just go down and score like we had been 2 out of every three drives.

[Ingtar33]

Originally posted by Kelly The Dog
Ingtar, I love your posts and almost always agree but on this one I must disagree. It seems to me that not only were we not playing a 46 at all but when the safeties WERE back in coverage and not in the box is when we were getting burnt (the two long Garner TDs and the deep Jerry Porter TD as examples). The safeties just blew the play. We rarely blitzed and when we did we got killed. I agree we dont have the talent to play this defense the way it needs to be played yet but we need to give it time. These players wouldnt be any better in any scheme. I was a Bills fan living in Phoenix when Ryan ran a 46 there, too, and that was an awesome defense. But like all defenses, it needs players. Every scheme has worked and has tanked in this league at times. Plus, IMO, Drew simply blew the pass. Had he thrown it six inches higher it was a completion to a wide open Peerless and who here didnt think we would just go down and score like we had been 2 out of every three drives.

Unfortunately, this is the 46 we’re watching. What you are seeing is the opposing teams are forcing us into a nickel D (and Grey tried some cover two against the Raiders spread formations). Every team we've played has used spread formations to break us out of the 8 man box and remove a LBer from the field. You're right, the Cards did play it well, but they had a talented front four too. In the history of the 46, the only way you can force the opposing team to stop spreading the field is to get sacks and pressure with your front four. The Bills haven’t done that yet. Until they do, expect to see teams with 3 or 4 WR on the field nearly every down, preventing us from stacking the line. The Bills have been blitzing a lot (even last Sunday)... its just that when you spread the field it forces the D to "reveal" where the blitz is coming from before the snap... giving the O-line time to adjust its blocking scheme and the QB time to audible.

[Ingtar33]

BTW: I never said that Drew didn't blow the pass... I said it was a forced throw, which in any normal situation Drew would 9 times out of 10 throw the ball away. However our D hasn't created any 'normal' situations for our O, and Drew clearly felt that a 3 point drive was as good as throwing in the towel, so he tried to make a very difficult pass on the run and threw an INT. Bad decision? Yes... Bad throw? Yes... Understandable mistake? Most certainly, given the game situation

[Kelly The Dog]

That's what I'm saying though, too. We simply don't have the horses up front yet. Whether they will develop or we must sign, trade or draft them is arguable and is not known yet. This defense as it is designed will probably be WORSE than a conventional defense when not stocked with the talent and game experience to play it and that is what we're seeing. But when Wire and Prioleau get used to it (and we cannot expect them to after only 5 games total) and when we start to get a pass rush suddenly this will be a completely different defense, and one we can win with because of our awesome offense. Personally, i think we're just asking too much too early.

[Ingtar33]

You're right, we don’t have the horses up front, and as good as Chidi A has been against the inside run, he has been very poor against the pass and outside run.

My only concern is that without the DL doing its job this D will not work. I think its time to scale back what we're doing; play bump and run cover two, and lay off the exotic blitz packages. We have the horses (up front) I think to stop the run with a 7 man front. By giving the secondary and LBers something basic to use we can go back to letting them make plays, something their current lack of athleticism and the D scheme are conspiring to prevent them from doing.

[TigerJ]

This is an area where I'm in over my head, talking the technical aspects of different offensive and defensive schemes. I know basically what the 46 defense is and what a spread offense is. Assuming what Ingtar says is true, when the opponent uses a spread offence, bringing in a third WR and forcing a substitution, (CB for LB) is there any particular weakness of the spread offence that can be exploited by that personnel package in the defense?

The reason I raise the issue is a comment made by Howard Simon (WNSA postgame show simulcast on Empire). He said that in his opinion the Bills problems are related to personnel, and if Buffalo went to a less aggressive defensive philosophy, they would have even worse results. If he's right, then it's not gonna make a whole lot of difference what particulars cheme we play when we play a superior offensive team. They are still gonna shred our defense. I'm not saying he's right. I just think it's interesting to see arguments on both sides.

[Ingtar33]

Simon might be right; I'm not advocating a change to a less aggressive D, only a less complex scheme. Most of the problems the Bills have had against the run have been a combo of shoddy tackling and poor "gap" assignments by the LBers. I only think it is time to remove some of the thinking by changing from the 2-gap 46 to a 1-gap 4-3 (same personnel, only less thinking and hopefully less mistakes).

About the spread... teams will continue to run it against the Bills until the DL can show it can sack the QB without a LBer blitz. The weakness with the spread is that the O only has 5 or 6 men blocking. If you can pressure the QB consistently without a blitz, or even sack him, you will force them to leave more men back to protect the QB, and maybe even force them to run the ball more (to slow up the pass rush) or abandon the spread. Until the Bills can generate consistent pressure with their front four (heck I'd settle for pressure when we send five men, perhaps this is too much to ask when we are not getting pressure even with six men rushing the passer) you'll never see the end of 3 or 4 WR sets this year.

[justasportsfan]

Originally posted by TigerJ
This is an area where I'm in over my head, talking the technical aspects of different offensive and defensive schemes. .

Same here. I thought the D was starting to come arround late last season. Now we're dead last once again. Clements (coming off a great rookie year) together w/ Winfield is suppose to be one of the top CB tandem in the league, so they said . Seems to me their performance so far hasn't been half as good as last year.

Granted that we didn't upgrade much , on paper we supposedly have better players than what we had last year w/c makes one wonder, does Jerry Gray know his D like Mike Sheppard knows his WCO? Having had numerous injuries on D last year, one couldn't begin to speculate on how much of a good (or bad) defensive coach Gray really is.

We have better players than last year and if there is no chemistry amongst these players then it's the coaches responsibilities to make sure they do.

Maybe getting embarrased by the Raiders is just what the doctor ordered. It better be if Gray wants to keep his job.