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View Full Version : Offseason Prediction #3-1/7/04-Travis Henry



Ebenezer
01-07-2004, 10:34 AM
This is a good one. There are many possibilities here. TH ran hurt all season long. Despite an OL that was, at times, patchwork and an OC who wouldn't run the ball to save his job Travis was probably the Bills MVP. Willis McGahee will have almost 20 months of rehab and rest once September rolls around. Which begs the question...what becomes of TH.

The options are pretty simple.

1. They could cut TH. That's not going to happen.
2. They could trade TH. That might be but the pick has got to be right.
3. They could leave the situation alone and let WM back up TH.
4. They could trade WM.

A quick examination of the cap numbers shows that:

TH is going to count $1.095 mil against the cap while WM will count $2.668 mil in 2004. Trading TH saves $650,000 on the cap. However, the Bills are in good cap shape and don't need to worry about cap issues.

This year Corey Dillion is going to be on the block and the draft is rich in RBs. Somebody would have to give up at least the 23rd pick in the draft for TH (to replace the pick spent on WM) and I can't see that happening. TH has shown that he is a 1300-1500 yard back in a pass happy offense. He has shown that he can and will run hurt. He is worth at least a top 15 pick...and nobody will give that up.

The prediction here is that, unless the trade is overwhelming--a deal TD cannot turn down, the Bills keep both TH and WM. TH will still be the work horse and we will get to see what WM really has. Then next offseason TH gets sent to another team.

:feedback:

Mr. Miyagi
01-07-2004, 10:48 AM
You got it. That's exactly how it will and should turn out.

TedMock
01-07-2004, 11:00 AM
agreed.

RedEyE
01-07-2004, 11:05 AM
IF.....IF, WM lives up to all of his hype. I'm still not sold on McGahee. The two will compete in the offseason. Unless Travis just looks shabby as all hell, he'll start in game 1. IF ......(again) IF McGahee is the back that everyone is making him out to be, he would most likely take over the starting position mid-season and trade negotiations would commence.

Novacane
01-07-2004, 11:07 AM
I just hope if they keep both it does not turn into an RJ/Flutie thing. With Wills' incentive laden contract I can't imagine him being happy as a backup or even splitting the carries

The_Philster
01-07-2004, 04:00 PM
I'll say #3. After the 2004 season, or towards the end of it, one of them will be traded.

Dozerdog
01-07-2004, 04:50 PM
Originally posted by Fairway To Green
I just hope if they keep both it does not turn into an RJ/Flutie thing. With Wills' incentive laden contract I can't imagine him being happy as a backup or even splitting the carries

Unlike QB's- you can change RB's on series or individual plays and not bust up momentum- if anything- you can enhance the offense.

Ken Davis/T Thomas, or the modern (and more talented) equivilent in Barlow/Hearst , Wheatley /Gardner, or the RB by committe in Philly. If one guy is going to pout- get rid of him- he isn't a team player.

2 great weapons that are relatively cheap cap wise. Unless you get a franchise player in return, forget the trade. One playewr could have a catestrophic season ending injury and the Bills still won't miss a beat.

Keep them both! Denver is happy they had multiple highly talented RB's the past 3-4 years!!

Novacane
01-07-2004, 06:03 PM
I realize you can interchange RB's DD but I just wonder if TH and WM are going to be happy splitting time. I really doubt either of them will be very pleased doing so. Henry because he is used to be THE man and WM because he has to get carries to reach his incentives. I see a problem brewing.

Novacane
01-07-2004, 06:07 PM
...................and if a problem does arise with bickering that is going to hurt our hand in a trade because other teams will realize we have to move one. In a perfect world I agree to keep both for at least this year but in the real world I say move Travis Henry now if they are truely sold on Mcgahees health. His trade value is never going to be higher than it is this season. It will only go down as a part time back.

RedEyE
01-07-2004, 06:11 PM
Originally posted by Dozerdog

2 great weapons that are relatively cheap cap wise. Unless you get a franchise player in return, forget the trade. One playewr could have a catestrophic season ending injury and the Bills still won't miss a beat.

Keep them both! Denver is happy they had multiple highly talented RB's the past 3-4 years!!

It's funny that you metion these points. I thought the same on both levels. Doesn't seem like you can ever have enough RB's.

The Colts pulled off a similar scenerio earlier in the year. Now The Edge is fresh for a playoff blast.