Offseason Prediction #5-1/13/04-New Head Coach

[Ebenezer]

Simply put the crystal ball here says Charlie Weis.

Timing appears to be the key here. From all accounts the search is down to three people:

Mike Mularkey
Dick Jouran
Charlie Weis

TD is not stupid. He knows the longer it takes for him to name a coach the less time that person will have to hire a good staff. Thus, Mularkey and Jouran are available now and could have been hired already. Waiting an extra weekend to see if NE lost and if Weis would be available was not a back breaker. However, now it is Tuesday and nothing appears to be shaking.

That tidbit and the following points leads me to believe it will be Weis.

1. Who better to come in and either resurrect the career of DB than somebody he has already worked with. Or, on the other hand, who better to come in and start fresh with a new QB than somebody DB has already worked with. Either way, TD gets to wash his hand of the DB situation. IF Weis comes in and says that he will give it a try. If he fails then the Bills move on next year. Further, IF Weis comes in and ditches DB then TD gets to make the claim that the coach had the decision and felt it was in the teams interest to move on.

2. Gutting an opponent. One way to weaken the Pats would be to cut off one of the three heads that runs the team. Hiring Weis could severly impact the offense and make the Pats vulnerable.

3. Gutting an opponent #2. Hiring Weis would also give the Bills first hand knowledge of all of the Pats personal and philosophy. Just look what Jon Gruden did to the Raiders in the Super Bowl. Insider knowledge like that is an advantage no team can overcome.

[clumping platelets]

It's Jauron and personnel

[Ebenezer]

Originally posted by clumping platelets
It's Jauron and personnel

Is that your prediction or your correction of my essay...

[clumping platelets]

I hope you review your reports at work


I agree with your analysis BTW but reserve the right revise and extend my remarks

[Ickybaluky]

The only point I disagree with is #2. I think the Pats would keep the same offense, promote Dante Scarnecchia or Ben Davidson and really wouldn't be effected that much. I have never been thrilled with Weis as a play-caller, and that part might improve. In fact, if the Pats draft or sign a good RB and end up running the ball more, the offense should improve.

That said, Weis is an unbelievable teacher and smart guy, so that would be a loss.

Losing Crennel would be a bigger loss, as he is a key component in communicating the defense to the players. Sometimes Belichick isn't a great communicator (news flash), and that was a problem in 2000 before Romeo got here. Crennel has helped smooth that over.

#3 is a very good point, and may be the biggest reason Weis would be hired in Buffalo. His knowledge of the Pats offense and personnel would be a big benefit when playing against them.

I think if Weis comes, there will almost certainly be a new QB. Bledsoe may be around for 2004, but long-term Weis is going to develop his guy.

[Ebenezer]

Originally posted by NE39
Losing Crennel would be a bigger loss, as he is a key component in communicating the defense to the players. Sometimes Belichick isn't a great communicator (news flash), and that was a problem in 2000 before Romeo got here. Crennel has helped smooth that over.

The one reason I think it will be Weis over Crennel is the fact that the offense here is in such need of help. The defense, while lacking turnovers, was not a problem.

[Ickybaluky]

I understand why you are picking Weis, and I would say there is no reason why he wouldn't be a good HC (that I can think of). He is organized, smart and a good developer of talent.

My point was, from the Patriots perspective, I think Crennel would be the bigger loss (which was point #2). I think the defense would miss Crennel's ability to communicate more than the offense would miss Weis. In 2000, the defense was slow to pick up the scheme's Belichick implemented. Since 2001, Belichick and the players have repeatedly credited Crennel for his ability to explain complex schemes and make them easier to assimulate. It is one of the reasons the Pats are able to do so many things on defense. That wouldn't be easy to replace.

Weis, though an excellent coach, wouldn't be as big a blow because the Pats have some experienced coaches that could step right in (Scarnecchia would likely be OC). Also, I have never been enamored with Weis as a play-caller, for I feel he is too pass-happy. Thus, perhaps a new coach, with a new RB, will emphasize the run more and make the Pats offense even better.

It will be interesting to see what the Pats offense looks like next year if Weis is gone. They likely will overhaul the RB corps, and the middle of their OL could see some changes. They likely are set at OT and C, but the OG could be completely different next season. I would like to see them invest in some road-grading OG and a big RB and pound the ball a little more. Though they are winning right now, they are too finesse for me. A more physical identity would be a better match for the overall team philosophy and take pressure off Brady.

When outsiders look at Brady, I wonder if they take into account how important he is to the Pats offense. He isn't surrounded by top-notch playmakers or a great running game, so Brady spreads the ball around to a bunch of guys to compensate. If he isn't doing this effectively, the team loses. He has 23 TDs and 5 Int in this 15 wins this year, but 1 TD and 7 Int in the 2 losses. He is doing more than just handing off.

I'm rambling...

I think the point about knowledge of the Pat's personnel is a good one, and would be a big bonus for Bills if they hire Weis.

[LtBillsFan66]

I think it's Weis.

[Mr. Miyagi]

I think TD is just using Weis as leverage to get Fassel.

[Michael82]

Originally posted by Mr. Miyagi
I think TD is just using Weis as leverage to get Fassel.

That would be hilarious! Or maybe he's using Mularkey as leverage to get Fassel.

[Ebenezer]

Originally posted by Mike32282
That would be hilarious! Or maybe he's using Mularkey as leverage to get Fassel.

say it with me boys...Charlie Weis

[BAM]

well if we did get mularkey, i can say I bought the bills head coach a beer I met him at the Loft Lounge 2 years ago before the Rolling Rock Fest with Bill Cowher, got them both a Bud and chatted with them for a bit

PS I'd rather they not hire him though

[BAM]

Originally posted by Ebenezer


say it with me boys...Charlie Weis

Charlie Weis !