A bit of Ingtar Draft info

[Tatonka]

Ingtar pmed me some info the other day, and i wanted to get his permission to post it first... but here you go.


Tatonka wrote on 01-21-2004 08:28 AM:
if you think those are the guys we go after, i would think we should try and trade down. thanks for the info though! mind if i post it for others to read?


Ingtar33 wrote on Today 01:32 AM:


Tatonka wrote on Yesterday 11:54 PM:
how goes it?

you need to hang around more.. busy at work lately?

dying for some draft insight..

quick question.. gimmy your top 5 wrs.. any that you think could make an immediate impact? seen a lot of mocks lately having us take a wr.. ugh.. not tops on my list.. but MM likes to use 3 wrs for sure.



WR is not what i would call a "need" position for this team, but then again not many places in this lineup really qualify as a need either.

I think my NEED list for the Bills would work like this...
1) RG
2) Center
3) LE
4) FS
5) WR/TE
6) QB

Now simply put, there is a very remote chance one of the Williams will fall to the Bills... i don' think any Bills fans will be particularly enamored with them as they are not the image of "deep threat" WRs... in fact they are almost clones of Keyshawn Johnson... big possession types (though Roy Williams does strike me as more of an Eric Moulds type, though he doesn't really have the deep ball skills to stand out in the fashion EM does).

My listing of the WRs right now would be...
Larry Fitzgerald (think Marvin Harrison)
Roy Williams (think Eric Moulds)
Reggie Williams (think Keyshawn Johnson)
Lee Evans (think P.Price, though with better hands)
Michael Clayton (sort of a lesser version of Roy Williams)

now... when the Bills draft it will be very unlikely Fitzgerald or the two Williams will be available... and frankly both Evans and Clayton are not good enough to go this high.

Good pickups would be...

OG/OT - Vernon Carey (Miami) : a 350-370~ish natural, who could play any position on the line and excel in the NFL (except maybe center). He's a mauling run blocker, and a decent pass blocker as a tackle, and a potential all pro as a guard. He reminds me of a bigger version of R.Brown, and could be a perennial probowler on the inside... definitely worth the 13th pick, though we could likely get him as far back as 25, i just get shivers thinking of him lining up next to M.Williams.

Center - Jake Grove (VT) : a 300 pound mauler who reminds me of Jon Runyan... very tough, very mean, sort of dirty. He should go in round one, though 13 might be a bit high. Will be a very good center for years to come in the NFL. This is the type of player you can build an o-line around, and the type of man everyone wants in their locker room... his teammates love him because he'll go to bat for any of them, to the point he even got ejected during a college game while defending a teammate. We could trade down 7 or so spots and pick him up easy... and I'd call that a fantastic first round pick.

DE - Kenechi Udeze (USC) : he could step right in and start at LE with little difficulty, large, strong and fast... the trick with him will be this. If he is outstanding in the combines he'll go in the top ten... maybe even jumping over Will Smith. Of all the DE's in the draft this is the only one i'd seriously consider taking at 13 as smith really is too small.

TE - Ben Troupe (Fla) : KW likely will be gone by pick 13, and while i'd be tempted to drop back to 17 or so before drafting troupe, he'll make a team very happy. Think Ben Coates when you think Troupe... basically an identical player... identical size... and about the same athleticism. He might not turn out to be a hall of famer, but he will turn out some pro bowl years.

Now i know you're thinking QBs... frankly, no QB should be drafted in the first round except Ben and Eli, and both of them will go in the top 5 picks... possibly in pick 1 and 2. Due to he way the draft works and out needs on the OL and elsewhere, plus the downside of rookie QBs, I don't see us even looking at QBs until maybe round 3 or 4. When you get down to that point your Rivers and the like will likely (possibly) be drafted already, however there are many QBs who might be available who would be worth a look. Foremost of whom would be Casey Clausen, who really shouldn't go before pick 3, but who has every tangible a successful NFL QB should have... to such an extent he actually reminds me a bit of Brady... only much better (Brady doesn't have the arm, nor the mobility Clausen does). Brady went in round 6, i can't see Clausen going later than 4...

[SABURZFAN]

i agree with carey being "worth the 13th pick."he can play both G and T.

[Tatonka]

i am not concerned about worth.. it is where is the value in picking him.. you dont take a guy at 13 that you can get at 20.. that is my concern..

see the dolphins pick of eddie moore last year.. i dont think it is a problem that they drafted the kid.. i just think it is stupid to use a 2nd round pick on a guy that could be picked EASILY in the 4th or 5th round.

[The Spaz]

Awesome. So now my thinking is either gettiing Carey or Grove in Rnd 1. I would like to get Carey in the 1st and Grove in the 2nd but probably won't happen. SO one of them then Lee Evans possibly in the 2nd depending of course on dropped talent.

[Ingtar33]

you play roulette when drafting a guy like Carey... really he could be drafted by any of the teams from 10-25... in fact i could see him going to the Jets (they need OG help) just before us.

The Bills could draft the Carey or Udeze at 13 and i wouldn't consider it a bad thing.

It might be a bit of a stretch for the other two though... I think you could fall back 5 picks and still be able to draft Troupe and maybe as many as 10 and be able to get Grove.

[Tatonka]

Originally posted by Ingtar33
you play roulette when drafting a guy like Carey... really he could be drafted by any of the teams from 10-25... in fact i could see him going to the Jets (they need OG help) just before us.

The Bills could draft the Carey or Udeze at 13 and i wouldn't consider it a bad thing.

It might be a bit of a stretch for the other two though... I think you could fall back 5 picks and still be able to draft Troupe and maybe as many as 10 and be able to get Grove.

please god no friggin TEs in the first.

[The Spaz]

Originally posted by Tatonka


please god no friggin TEs in the first.

Ben Watson in the 3rd he has talent and intensity!:up:

[Lone Stranger]

Ingtar's analysis seems to be very thoughtful. I like what I see. Carey's the type of guy I'd like on my team.

[Earthquake Enyart]

Center - Jake Grove (VT) : a 300 pound mauler who reminds me of Jon Runyan... very tough, very mean, sort of dirty.

My new favorite. :snicker:

[baalworship]

Thanks Tatonka and Ingtar. My dream scenario in the draft has been:
Bills drop down 7-8 spots and grab Vernon Carey to play RG next to Williams. Our biggest problem last year was when Sullivan disappeared and Mike Pucillo ended up starting. Carey next to Williams would provide us with a immediate POWER RUNNING GAME! No more wacky stuff on 3rd and 1. Over 700 lbs on the right side! This will be the best immediate fix for our offense.


With the extra second the Bills get they can address multiple needs.


Speed WR
TE
Free Safety
Center
Quarterback

[mypoorfriendme]

i like it....i like it a lot. after carey id LOVE to see the bills pick up rivers and evans, and then ben watson in the third. it wont happen but hey, i can dream

[Tatonka]

Originally posted by mypoorfriendme
i like it....i like it a lot. after carey id LOVE to see the bills pick up rivers and evans, and then ben watson in the third. it wont happen but hey, i can dream

i would be extatic about that draft.

[The Spaz]

Originally posted by Tatonka


i would be extatic about that draft.

Your telling me!:clap::drool::beer:

[mypoorfriendme]

:drool:

[TigerJ]

Based on Ingtar's report, I think I would try to trade down maybe six to ten spots. Dallas picks at 22 Buffalo could get Dallas' first and second round picks for that trade if Dallas wanted to move up. Then I'd take Carey if he's still on the board. If he's gone by then, I'd look at Grove or Lee Evans. If Buffalo stays at 13 and picks Udeze, that would be OK too.

[Throne Logic]

Originally posted by TigerJ
Based on Ingtar's report, I think I would try to trade down maybe six to ten spots. Dallas picks at 22 Buffalo could get Dallas' first and second round picks for that trade if Dallas wanted to move up. Then I'd take Carey if he's still on the board. If he's gone by then, I'd look at Grove or Lee Evans. If Buffalo stays at 13 and picks Udeze, that would be OK too.

I don't see Parcells / Jones trading two picks for one. They've got too many holes to fill in Dallas. They want all the picks they can get.

As far as trading down, in general, I'd need to see who's still on the board when #13 rolls around. Udeze, Carey, and Grove all represent potential immediate impact players in positions that Buffalo has to improve in. It would be a shame to gamble on trading down 7-10 slots and miss them all.

[Throne Logic]

Originally posted by Tatonka


please god no friggin TEs in the first.

Yeah, this has me baffled, too. Why do people think TD would even consider drafting a TE on Saturday? He just signed Campbell to an extension and with good reason. He's a tough bastard who caught some real nice balls over the middle. Moore is fairly solid, too. In fact, didn't Moore start most of the games this past season?

No TE on Day 1. Focus on DE, C, and OG.

Actually, that would be my only disagreement with Ingtar. I think that a top-flight DE would make more of an immediate impact on this team. Centers generally require a bit of time to adjust - what with having to make all the blocking calls and all. OG would be nice, but I'm really curious to see what happens with good coaching. Sullivan may come back around and the overall blocking schemes may be enough to dramatically improve this OL. Not that I would be unhappy with any of them being selected. I just feel that DE would be the most appropriate for a team who's defense appears to be a decent pass-rusher away from greatness. The offense can't help but get better just from ditching Gilbride.

[BillsMan80]

Based on what Gray said today, I can't see us going after a DE. He expects big things from Kelsay. I can't see us going after a DE, with what seems like more pressing needs on offense.

[Tatonka]

throne.. we are lacking serious talent on the oline.. at og and c.. we are NOT lacking talent at DE.. we have 2 second round DEs there.. what we need is friggin production from that talent.. you cant just keep taking DEs early every year.. we have done it 2 years in a row..

on the Oline.. we dont have talent there.. pucillo and teague were both late round picks for a reason.. i think teague was a 6th rounder with denver and pucillo was too... they are not talented.. and anything they do well just comes from hard work and effort.

my 2 cents.

[Bmax]

I still like williams at 13 ... Reggie... I disagree with ingtar .. I look at williams and see a poor man's T.O .. REMEMBER SIZE IS A VERY IMPORTANT THING FOR WR NOWADAYS....

I think you can get a quality g in round two...... or 3 ..... Wr like williams don't come along every year .. We will have no shot at mike williams next year.... I'll take my chances with reggie this season and worry about guard later.....


When reed shaw fail to get seperation make plays down field next year .. Remember the guard or de we took at 22 ...

Bmax

[BillsMan80]

I'd rather address the OLine in FA too. I'd feel better with veterans coming in during Free Agency. Rookies on the OL scare me.

[Throne Logic]

Originally posted by Tatonka
throne.. we are lacking serious talent on the oline.. at og and c.. we are NOT lacking talent at DE.. we have 2 second round DEs there.. what we need is friggin production from that talent.. you cant just keep taking DEs early every year.. we have done it 2 years in a row..

on the Oline.. we dont have talent there.. pucillo and teague were both late round picks for a reason.. i think teague was a 6th rounder with denver and pucillo was too... they are not talented.. and anything they do well just comes from hard work and effort.

my 2 cents.

OK, OK, OK. I guess I'm not sold on Denney and Kelsay at this point. Denney has had a couple of years now and is not much more than serviceable. I'll give Kelsay another year, I guess. Ack. I WANT A PASS RUSH, DAMMITALLTOHECK!!! I'll be patient with this one - you win. Go with the OL. :hammeru:

[SABURZFAN]

Originally posted by Tatonka
i am not concerned about worth.. it is where is the value in picking him.. you dont take a guy at 13 that you can get at 20.. that is my concern..

see the dolphins pick of eddie moore last year.. i dont think it is a problem that they drafted the kid.. i just think it is stupid to use a 2nd round pick on a guy that could be picked EASILY in the 4th or 5th round.

first of all,i don't see us trading with the Fish.this is also where opinions will vary.anybody who can play two positions on the OL and could easily put in 10-12 years in the NFL,barring injuries,etc....,is worth a #13 pick for A TEAM NEED.some people may think that we need to go DE in the first round.i disagree.we need a starter on the OL.carey fits that description.

like i said,opinions will vary......

[BigZ]

I don't think Udeze will be around at 13. Trading down to get Grove and an extra second rounder (QB?) would be nice. Teague is a guy who belongs - maybe not just at center.

[Tatonka]

Originally posted by Bmax
I still like williams at 13 ... Reggie... I disagree with ingtar .. I look at williams and see a poor man's T.O .. REMEMBER SIZE IS A VERY IMPORTANT THING FOR WR NOWADAYS....

I think you can get a quality g in round two...... or 3 ..... Wr like williams don't come along every year .. We will have no shot at mike williams next year.... I'll take my chances with reggie this season and worry about guard later.....


When reed shaw fail to get seperation make plays down field next year .. Remember the guard or de we took at 22 ...

Bmax

rofl.. when the rookie wr is not good enough to get on the field next year.. or the following year, and doesnt show anything until year three.. remember taht it normally takes rookie wr's three years to live up to expectations.

[Tatonka]

Originally posted by zielinski
I don't think Udeze will be around at 13. Trading down to get Grove and an extra second rounder (QB?) would be nice. Teague is a guy who belongs - maybe not just at center.

i can tell you where teague belongs.. :snicker:

[The Quebecer]

First, I would go with Chris Snee, OG, Boston College, 6'3", 325lbs instead of Carey. Second, if Snee isn't available at #13, I'd go with Wilfork, DT and then Max STarks, OT/OG in the second.
It all starts with the lines!


Later,
Pat

[Bmax]

Tonka --You keep saying that it takes rookie wr two to three years.. This is not true in all cases .. if you mean pro bowl maybe ....Bolden ..proved this not to be the case. ....If there is one position other than rb where a player can make a impact the first year it's wr.....

OL- 2- 3 YEARS MOST OF THE TIME...

QB- 3 YEARS ....

TE- SAME AS WR.....

IF YOU ARE GOING TO POST ----A THEORY make sure it is an acccurate one....Besides when do we get a good #2 Our choice is wake for reed or try in round two or 3 to find a sleeper..

I say that's where you find your guards. Rarely are guards taken in round one...Unless they are studs ..Reuben Even then it is the easiest position to fill in the nfl draft ...Why waste a high quality pick on a guard when good scouting could land you a guy like bell from miami of ohio in round ...



Bmax.....

[Bmax]

Tonka- plus your saying williams is not good enough to get on the Field ....You must not have seen him play last season or the year before ....Why else would make such an bogus statement ...


I guess every scout in the nfl is wrong ... Most have this guy a lock for the top 15....He will start on the team that drafts him even if it's the bills.

Bmax

[Ingtar33]

Snee's a very good player... but i think he could use another year in college before he goes pro. he has a few difficulties with pass blocking, most of which stem from him not keeping his feet moving. I have Carey rated higher just because he does a lot of little things better, though his size does bother me a bit (350+ for a guard is a bit too big)... it doesn't seem to stop him getting out to the 2nd lvl and blocking on the run well... so Carey sits higher in my book.

remember, that little blurb was a PM i sent off to T after a few moments of thought not a detailed review of the NFL draft... i might put together something a bit more involved closer to the draft.

[don137]

I have read enough of Totonka's post to know that he is saying the high majority of WR's take 3 years to really come into there own. Boldin and Moss are exceptions but for every Boldin that makes a big impact there rookie year there is a hundred WRs that as a rookie that does not make a dramatic impact.

[Ingtar33]

actually... the only positions most of us in the business call "impact" for rookies are...

RB
LB (mostly ILB, but sometimes OLB)

everyone else usually takes a few years to develop... sure there are exceptions... but exceptions prove the rule when you consider how rare they are. Boldin is the only rookie WR in the history of the league to put up those numbers... and you have to go back to Randy Moss to find another who made such an impact. Think about that. In 7 years only 2 players in 7 whole NFL drafts made the probowl at WR in their rookie year.

Linebacker and Runningback, you want a rookie to make an impact take one of those. Well, to be fair i guess you could throw Safety into that mix... but they're so rarely picked in the 1st round its not really a fair test (they have to be exceptional players to go in he 1st so the test is skewed).

DT/DE, WR, and QB are all positions where rookies traditionally struggle for large parts of their first seasons... and often struggle in their next one as well. Again, that’s not to say you don't get a difference maker at those positions, only that you cannot reasonably expect one of these guys to step in and play even up to he standard of an NFL journeymen in their rookie year.

You do not draft those positions in he first round if you need to plug a hole in the starting lineup at those positions... you use FA to fix it, maybe draft that position also if its a serious problem, or you're looking at 2 or 3 years down the road.

In short, we likely will be getting 40 catches 500 yards and 4 TDs out of a rookie WR... even if we're getting the 2nd coming of TO.

Terrell Owens rookie receiving numbers
35 catches
520 yards
4 TDs

[HenryRules]

Ingtar ... in the past few years, it also seems that rookie TEs have made a big impact on their team - not pro bowl level, but competent solid starters playing a key role in their offense. Do you think that either Winslow or Troupe will be that sort of rookie?

[mypoorfriendme]

but what about jeremy stevens and daniel graham, who are so far, big dissapointments in seattle and NE respectively. winslow i think will produce, but considering troupes blocking skills i think it will take him a couple years to develop

[HenryRules]

There's no position where some highly projected draft picks don't end up living up to what was expected of them.

However, guys like Shockey, Heap, Randy McMichael, Teyo Johnson, Jason Witten, Bubba Franks, Antonio Gates, and Alge Crumper have all had pretty solid seasons as a rookie at TE in the last 2-4 years or so.

[Tatonka]

Originally posted by Bmax
Tonka --You keep saying that it takes rookie wr two to three years.. This is not true in all cases .. if you mean pro bowl maybe ....Bolden ..proved this not to be the case. ....If there is one position other than rb where a player can make a impact the first year it's wr.....

OL- 2- 3 YEARS MOST OF THE TIME...

QB- 3 YEARS ....

TE- SAME AS WR.....

IF YOU ARE GOING TO POST ----A THEORY make sure it is an acccurate one....
Bmax.....


Originally posted by Bmax
Tonka- plus your saying williams is not good enough to get on the Field ....You must not have seen him play last season or the year before ....Why else would make such an bogus statement ...

I guess every scout in the nfl is wrong ... Most have this guy a lock for the top 15....He will start on the team that drafts him even if it's the bills.

Bmax

dude.. you need to get off my nuts.. read dons post below.. that is exactly what i mean... and take a look at mould (1st rounder, or owens numbers as a rookie.. hell.. jj stokes was better than williams was in college.. look at him now.. there are TONS more that i can list.. but i dont need to.. all you can say is .. oh err boldin.. err Moss.. great.. 2 friggin guys. big deal... wr's rarely EVER make an impact.. i think that position is tougher than any other.. so before you go making a THEORY.. back is up with something!!! i think i have.

Originally posted by don137
I have read enough of Totonka's post to know that he is saying the high majority of WR's take 3 years to really come into there own. Boldin and Moss are exceptions but for every Boldin that makes a big impact there rookie year there is a hundred WRs that as a rookie that does not make a dramatic impact.


Originally posted by Ingtar33
actually... the only positions most of us in the business call "impact" for rookies are...

RB
LB (mostly ILB, but sometimes OLB)

everyone else usually takes a few years to develop... sure there are exceptions... but exceptions prove the rule when you consider how rare they are. Boldin is the only rookie WR in the history of the league to put up those numbers... and you have to go back to Randy Moss to find another who made such an impact. Think about that. In 7 years only 2 players in 7 whole NFL drafts made the probowl at WR in their rookie year.

In short, we likely will be getting 40 catches 500 yards and 4 TDs out of a rookie WR... even if we're getting the 2nd coming of TO.

Terrell Owens rookie receiving numbers
35 catches
520 yards
4 TDs

my f-in point exactly.. bmax.. did you read that.. do you get that THEORY!??

[Tatonka]

colbert looked good today, so did henderson and wilford.. this is a super deep WR draft... which is just another reason not to waste an early pick on a WR

[socalfan]

I liked Colbert in the Rose Bowl. He was a hard guy to tackle. Today, Wilford did some good things... Didn't Henderson drop a couple?

[Tatonka]

henderson dropped a couple yeah.. but he also made some very nice catches. in games like this.. i look at it kinda like the pro bowl.. you have to expect a certain amount of mistakes because your not used to the players your with.. the velocity of the qb's passes in certain situations.. where he puts the ball, ect..

jenkins what another guy who played very well too..

[socalfan]

Yeah, Jenkins showed better than he did while playing at OSU. So given your point of view about the nature of the game, I'd guess that Dockett did well.

I tried keeping and eye on Lauvalais since you've previously mentioned him. And he seems to have had some double teams set against him. He also seems to push into the backfield pretty regularly.

I wish I had been at the game it is a whole lot easier to watch certain guys.

[Tatonka]

i think dockett and lavalias both played very impressive games... i have been pushing for lavalias all season.. and i have mentioned dockett as a guy that would be another solid selection if we just miss out on CL in the second or third...

[The Spaz]

I just want to add another Josh Harris blows statement.:snicker:

[eyedog]

I said it before that Harris is nothing more than a NFL backup. I hope the Bills don't waste a pick on this guy.

[eyedog]

and Grove isn't going in the first round. Also I hope the Bills don't take him in the 2nd with their pick. If he's there in the 3rd then take him.

[Tatonka]

Originally posted by eyedog
and Grove isn't going in the first round. Also I hope the Bills don't take him in the 2nd with their pick. If he's there in the 3rd then take him.


why is that?

[eyedog]

He's a center. A good center, but still a center. Not many go rd. 1 and he won't either. He will be there in rd. 2 and probably rd. 3.

I like Carey but not at #13, and there is a good shot he may still be there in the 2nd rd.

The guy I wanted in rd 2 was Antwan Odom, but it looks like he may be going late 1st. now.

If this is the way the Bills are going they had better be looking into trading down and acquiring more picks.

I still feel if one of the Williams' at wr or Winslow is there at #13 then you can't pass on them. If they are gone I hope they trade down.