Ingtar33
10-09-2002, 11:37 PM
Well, that was a fun and unexpected 2-3 start. A start in which the Offense has been fabulous, the Defense has been atrocious, and the special teams has been a little bit of both while steadily improving. This Sunday the Bills travel to Houston Texas to take on the newly minted Houston Texans. If all goes according to plan this week will be an excellent warm up for next week’s game in Miami against the Dolphins. Like previous weeks I'll examine the key match-ups and give my prediction on the outcome for you gamblers out there. Thus far my predictions have been good, with a 3-2 record against the spread, and a stellar 5-0 record against the over-under (for the non-gamblers out there, I'm now 4-1 in picking winners).
When the Bills have the ball and are...
Running: The Bills go into Houston with the tale of two running games: One running game, which seems to find some good success at home; and another which seems unable to get anything going on the road. Well, ever other team in the league has run on the Texans, so I guess the Bills will have their chance to break out of their road funk. The Texans play an aggressive 3-4 defense, which doesn't seem too capable of slowing down any running attack. In fact they are allowing about the same amount of yards on the ground (per game) that the Bills have allowed thus far. Given the size advantage the Bills hold over the smaller Texans front, this should be a battle the Bills can win... if they stick with the ground game look for Henry to pile some yards up, and make a run at breaking the 100yard barrier for a second time this year.
Passing: The Bills take their top rated aerial assault to battle this Sunday with one of the NFL's best (8th ranked) pass defenses. While the Texans have struggled against the run, their pass D has been the strength of their team. Their front seven zone blitzes extensively and while they haven't been setting any sack records they are getting their share of QB sacks and pressures. Truthfully, I'm not sold on their secondary, I think Glenn and Coleman are a little slow, and their safeties are FA castoffs (including ex Bill, Matt Stevens). As a result, assuming the line can keep the heat off Bledsoe; look for the Bills to light up the Texans secondary... why not? They've done it to far better secondarys thus far.
When the Texans have the ball and are...
Running: This is the one thing the battered Texans O-line has been able to do thus far... run block. With the Texans using Allen as their primary back, expect to see a lot of sharp, cutback running. When Wells spells Allen and steps on the field, expect to see some very impressive 'between the tackles' pounding from this young power back. The Texans have actually run more than they've passed thus far, and if the Bills don't jump out to a big lead, expect that to continue, as the Texans will try to use the ground game to keep the high powered Bills offense off the field.
Passing: The Texans offense has been hobbled by some incredibly poor pass blocking due to their incredibly banged up front five. Carr is on pace to be sacked more times than any QB in league history, averaging nearly 7 sacks per game (this is especially impressive considering Carr has only tried to pass 98 times, resulting in a sack per every 4 drop backs). What is equally amazing about this stat is Carr could have been sacked numerous other times, but his quick feet and quick mind saved him the trip. The unreal pressure Carr has faced has adversely effected his stats for the season, and the Bills beleaguered pass D should be licking its chops at this anemic attack. Look for Carr to try to send the ball to his favorite target Corey Bradford, who has caught 3 of Carr's 4 TD passes on the season.
Conclusion:
While on the surface, this looks like a classic upset game (due to the Bills overlooking the expansion Texans) don't expect that to occur. At 2-3 the Bills don't have the luxury to overlook anyone, and will be hungry to get back to .500. With the D taking such a pounding in the press, expect a great effort out there, with multiple sacks and probably some turnovers, as the Texans O is just too poor to compete with the Bills on Sunday. The only chance the Texans will have to keep this game close is if they get their running game going. However, Allen and Wells are nowhere near the quality of runners the Bills have faced thus far... and the Texans O-line is nowhere near skilled enough to handle the Bills poor D-line. If the Bills D struggles against the Texans, then we shouldn't expect them to be able to stop anyone all year. The Texans are going to be overmatched as their pass D has never seen anything like what the Bills have for them. Watch for the Bills to will in a rout 35-20.
When the Bills have the ball and are...
Running: The Bills go into Houston with the tale of two running games: One running game, which seems to find some good success at home; and another which seems unable to get anything going on the road. Well, ever other team in the league has run on the Texans, so I guess the Bills will have their chance to break out of their road funk. The Texans play an aggressive 3-4 defense, which doesn't seem too capable of slowing down any running attack. In fact they are allowing about the same amount of yards on the ground (per game) that the Bills have allowed thus far. Given the size advantage the Bills hold over the smaller Texans front, this should be a battle the Bills can win... if they stick with the ground game look for Henry to pile some yards up, and make a run at breaking the 100yard barrier for a second time this year.
Passing: The Bills take their top rated aerial assault to battle this Sunday with one of the NFL's best (8th ranked) pass defenses. While the Texans have struggled against the run, their pass D has been the strength of their team. Their front seven zone blitzes extensively and while they haven't been setting any sack records they are getting their share of QB sacks and pressures. Truthfully, I'm not sold on their secondary, I think Glenn and Coleman are a little slow, and their safeties are FA castoffs (including ex Bill, Matt Stevens). As a result, assuming the line can keep the heat off Bledsoe; look for the Bills to light up the Texans secondary... why not? They've done it to far better secondarys thus far.
When the Texans have the ball and are...
Running: This is the one thing the battered Texans O-line has been able to do thus far... run block. With the Texans using Allen as their primary back, expect to see a lot of sharp, cutback running. When Wells spells Allen and steps on the field, expect to see some very impressive 'between the tackles' pounding from this young power back. The Texans have actually run more than they've passed thus far, and if the Bills don't jump out to a big lead, expect that to continue, as the Texans will try to use the ground game to keep the high powered Bills offense off the field.
Passing: The Texans offense has been hobbled by some incredibly poor pass blocking due to their incredibly banged up front five. Carr is on pace to be sacked more times than any QB in league history, averaging nearly 7 sacks per game (this is especially impressive considering Carr has only tried to pass 98 times, resulting in a sack per every 4 drop backs). What is equally amazing about this stat is Carr could have been sacked numerous other times, but his quick feet and quick mind saved him the trip. The unreal pressure Carr has faced has adversely effected his stats for the season, and the Bills beleaguered pass D should be licking its chops at this anemic attack. Look for Carr to try to send the ball to his favorite target Corey Bradford, who has caught 3 of Carr's 4 TD passes on the season.
Conclusion:
While on the surface, this looks like a classic upset game (due to the Bills overlooking the expansion Texans) don't expect that to occur. At 2-3 the Bills don't have the luxury to overlook anyone, and will be hungry to get back to .500. With the D taking such a pounding in the press, expect a great effort out there, with multiple sacks and probably some turnovers, as the Texans O is just too poor to compete with the Bills on Sunday. The only chance the Texans will have to keep this game close is if they get their running game going. However, Allen and Wells are nowhere near the quality of runners the Bills have faced thus far... and the Texans O-line is nowhere near skilled enough to handle the Bills poor D-line. If the Bills D struggles against the Texans, then we shouldn't expect them to be able to stop anyone all year. The Texans are going to be overmatched as their pass D has never seen anything like what the Bills have for them. Watch for the Bills to will in a rout 35-20.