ingtar: is Mel Kiper as big a joke as the data suggests?

[shadowfax]

I've followed this guy for three years now, and all he does is lick his finger, put it in the wind, and tell you which way the wind is blowing. Going thru his past pre-draft post-combine predictions, he's not much better than most armchair mocks. The Huddle Report has been the most accurate, in my little analysis. Why does this guy get so much credit for being a draft guru when he's never ONCE said anything about a player that hasn't already been said, and I've never heard him pull out a sleeper pick that turned out to be drafted high and worth it. He doesn't even go there. He just drools about the top 10 picks who are certain to be first rounders, almost to protect his credibility.

And he's so full of himself i can bearly stand it.

[The Spaz]

He maybe a joke to some but he must be good enough to be doing it for 30 something years.

[HenryRules]

If he was good, he'd be making the picks for a living (or at least dabbled in it), not talking about them.

Sports media are hired more for their entertainment or recognition factor than their knowledge.

[The Spaz]

Originally posted by HenryRules
If he was good, he'd be making the picks for a living (or at least dabbled in it), not talking about them.

Sports media are hired more for their entertainment or recognition factor than their knowledge.

Exactly and that's what he does. I think I am pretty good and remembering where guys want to college but I dont think many people could even come close to Mel in that aspect.Mel gives his opinion just like we do except he gets media attention.

[Ingtar33]

yeah... he's a bit of a joke... and he does exactly what you say... sticks his finger to the wind...

He's a perfect barometer for media hype, not athletic talent. Sort of a running joke in our front office... and with scouts around the league... well... some scouts... there are a few who don' think he's horrible...

For example. His reason for Patrick Ramsey nor being worth a 1st round pick was he played all his time in a shotgun college offence. Listen, this is the dumbest critique I’ve ever heard. Give me 15 minutes and I could show a tennis player how to take a snap under center properly.

His reasoning for Leftwich being not as good a prospect than both Palmer and Boller is because he had a broken leg, and might loose some mobility. Are you kidding? Leftwich played on that broken leg for the last month of the college season. Boller was my favorite Kiper creation though. This kid pulls a carnival like stunt and throws the football through the goalposts from his knees at midfield, Kiper eats it alive. Suddenly the fact Boller never completed more than 50% of his passes in ANY college season were forgotten and he was an instant 1st round pick. Then Boller goes and runs a 4.5 40… and the fact that Boller never ran for a single 100 yard game in college, and was often sacked disappeared form Kiper’s mind and now, Boller wasn’t just a 1st rounder, he was a better 1st rounder than Leftwich, because he now was mobile… a white Michael Vick. Did Boller ever look like Michael Vick while playing the game? No, but that didn’t stop the Boller hype build until Baltimore decided to make him a millionaire, one who will flunk out of the NFL in 2 or 3 years… but a millionaire, none the less.

Why did Baltimore take him? Well something happens in NFL front offices sometimes. See coaches and GMs often take over the hands on scouting at the combine, senior bowl, and workouts. Now they’re very good at what they do, but sometimes they get bamboozled by the only thing they’re seeing, the player’s physical performance in a non-game situation. What tends to happen is they come back to he war rooms and say “so and so is a good player I like him and might draft him” then the scouts sort of bob their heads and say, very good choice boss, and move the player up their lists and toss most of the notes they have on them out the window. Furthermore, sometimes media pressure filters its way into the front office, as fans will scream for certain players, despite the fact they’re no good… and to protect themselves the coach or gm feel obligated to take that player just to sell tickets for the next season.

[shadowfax]

what's really sad is that ESPN pays this guy a zillion dollars to do what a dozen of us could do better just by watching tape of about 100 prospects. On draft day, when those third rounders are taken and he knows nothing about them, he has his alphabetical list of players right there with relevant stats and other red herrings to his lack of real insight. Hell, I could sit there and collect boucoup bux to read from a list as each name is called, and look smug and self satisfied and not correct my colleagues when they call me a genius. I could do that. And I have much better skin.

[The Spaz]

Don't hate appeciate...:lol::rofl: I don't care either way but he's been around so long that it wouldn't be draft day without him for me. I buy his draft guides because they really have a **** load of information in it true or not but unless you are a real scout then how else are you supposed to get this information?:up::beer:

[Ingtar33]

good point spaz...

Actually, Kiper's a decent guy... a little overbearing, and a lot of his evaluations are from actual scouts giving him a heads up... on the sly of course.

We keep his draft guide in our FO just to get a good read on what "public opinion" is doing to the draft boards in some team's clubhouses and try to make some draft day use of that.

If you look at the Cincinnati Bengals draft last year, it followed Kiper's draft board in his book highest ranking player availible through the first 5 rounds perfectly. Something quite normal for the Bengals, who have drafted Kiper's draft guide fairly religiously for th last decade.

Interestingly, besides Palmer, I though drafting the Kiper guide turned out alright for the Bengals last year… it was one of their better drafts that’s for sure.

[The_Philster]

Originally posted by Ingtar33
If you look at the Cincinnati Bengals draft last year, it followed Kiper's draft board in his book highest ranking player availible through the first 5 rounds perfectly. Something quite normal for the Bengals, who have drafted Kiper's draft guide fairly religiously for th last decade.

Not surprising considering Mike Brown seemed, for the longest time, to think that scouts were a waste of money.

[Ingtar33]

LOL... yeah that is true.

[clumping platelets]

We now have narrowed it down.......Ingtar doesn't work for Cincy :snicker:

[SABURZFAN]

Originally posted by The Spaz
He maybe a joke to some but he must be good enough to be doing it for 30 something years.

yeah...yeah...yeah...big deal.if you and i had some scouts telling us bits and pieces,we could do what he does too.

[The Spaz]

Originally posted by SABURZFAN


yeah...yeah...yeah...big deal.if you and i had some scouts telling us bits and pieces,we could do what he does too.

Do we?:confused2

[SABURZFAN]

Originally posted by The Spaz


Do we?:confused2

i don't know about you but i don't.

[TheGhostofJimKelly]

I don't mind Kiper. The only reason you choose him is because he is on ESPN. Nobody ever says anything about all these knuckleheads that have web sites and their predictions. Kiper is OK.

[Michael82]

Originally posted by clumping platelets
We now have narrowed it down.......Ingtar doesn't work for Cincy :snicker:

Or the Bills. :D

[elltrain22]

Kiper knows his stufff, no doubt about that. He is probably the 2nd smartest analyist that works at ESPN ( peter gammons is 1st ). His hair looks like jello mould though, and he can tend to be somewhat of a know it all, but i still think he is cool.

[caveboy]

I think Mel Hyper is a case where he's been around doing it for so long, people just expect to see him come draft day. Is he the best and most accurate, far from it. But he's a rapid-fire talking head that is viewed as an expert just because he's been around so long. I have to give him credit for be able to shoot out all the picks without writing it down.

He probably does have a stable of people that scout for him to keep an eye on the up and comer's. How else could anyone keep track of prospects among all thew Division I and II schools by themselves.

I would say though that the finger in the wind analogy seems accurate. Wait until the combine when after, a few top picks 'have a bad workout'. Then, their stock will drop dramatically just because Mel or others may talk up the fact they sucked during their workouts.

Combine warriors don't always translate to NFL success, nor do poor workouts make bad players. (Although their stock may drop and they lose potential millions by dropping to the later rounds.)

[Bert102176]

by the way who does he have the Bills drafting in his mock draft?

[BuffaloRanger]

Sure many people could do what Kiper does, but his experience gives him credibility with the public - like it or not. It's 30 or whatever years, that gave him the connections that a new guy wouldn't have. Imagine..."And now in his 2nd year of predicting the NFL draft, here's_____"

Plus remember, it's all about presentation. Internet site experts don't have to worry about live TV audiences.

Admit it, if he's saying good things about a player you really like - or one the Bills just drafted, it is comforting.

[The_Philster]

Originally posted by Bert102176
by the way who does he have the Bills drafting in his mock draft?

Will Smith
http://proxy.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=kiper_jr_mel&id=1713683