Clump's Bills Mock

[Guest]

While working on a 7 rd mock this weekend, I came up with the following:

I will be producing a 7 rd mock later this week after some input from a variety of sources :)


Bills enter draft with

1,13
2,43
3,74
4,109
5,144
7,207
7,214

Bills trade down with Denver as follows

1,13 to Denver for 1,24; 2,54; 2005 4th rd pick

also

Bills send 2,54 to Arizona for 3,64; 4,100

Bills send 3,74 to Cincy for 3,80; 6,183; 7, 218

Mock

1,24 - WR Michael Jenkins(Ohio St)
2,43 - FS Sean Jones(Georgia)
3,64 - QB Matt Schaub(Virginia)
3,80 - TE Ben Hartsock(Ohio St)
4,100 - DL Dave Ball(UCLA)
4,109 - FB Mike Karney(Arizona St)
5,144 - LB Brandon Chillar(UCLA)
6,183 - OT Sean Babin(Illinois)
7,207 - CB Sam Massey(Morgan St)
7,214 - DE Jared Allen(Idaho St)
7,218 - RB Derrick Ward(Ottawa,KN)


1st rd: I really believe the Bills want either Rivers or Roethlisberger at #13 but will not trade up. I do not think that either Will Smith or Udeze will be available. I do not believe that Reggie Williams at #13 is a better choice than Jenkins at #24 along with the additional choices added from moving down. Jenkins can become the #2 WR we need

2nd rd: Bills have a need for a true FS not a hybrid at the position. Bills also have some future FA concerns after 2004 at S.

3rd rd: Bills will take a "QB of the future" and I think that Schaub is good value here. Bills also want a blocking TE and with the exception of one publication, I've read he one of the best blocking TE's in the draft (Peters? Is he TE or switch to OL).

4th rd: Bills have FA concerns after 2004 on the DL as well as a need for further depth at DE. Ball is a versatile DL that could move inside at times. Bills need a true blocking FB and appears that the Bills like Karney

5th rd: Depth at LB is needed with loss of DaShon Polk. Likely special teams contributor

6th rd: OL addressed with Babin. OL considered earlier but value didn't allow for it. Bills have FA concern after 2004 with both Jennings and M. Price UFA.

7th rd: All players drafted with expanded PS in mind

[clumping platelets]

Fins mock from same 7 rd mock

Miami draft order as of 4/4/04:

1,20
3,87
4,119
6,186
7,219
7,221

My mock has a trade of DE Ogunleye I previously hypothesized and, at this point, I see no reason to change my opinion on it, except that I have included a swap of 4th rd picks.
(Chicago trade 1,14; 2,47, 4,104 to Miami for 1,20; 4,119, and DE Ogunleye)

That gives Miami

1,14
2,47
3,87
4,104
6,186
7,219
7,221

I also projected Miami moving up in rd 3 via this trade

Miami send 3,87 and 4,104 to Jags for 3,72 and 6,175

No more deals, now the mock

1,14 - OL Shawn Andrews(Arkansas)
2,47 - LB Michael Boulware(Florida St)
3,72 - WR Keary Colbert(USC)
6,175 - QB Casey Clausen(Tennessee)
6,186 - DT Corey Williams(Arkansas St)
7,219 - CB Kelvin Millhouse(Hawaii)
7,221 - SS Curtis DeLoatch(No. Carolina A & T)

I think the reasoning on the 1st rd pick goes without explanation. The OL situation has been beaten to death here.

The 2nd rd pick is a value pick. Boulware clearly appears to be a solid 2nd rd pick. I have always projected value and future need over present need. Seau will not be with Miami after this season IMHO. This gives Miami the chance to work with both Moore and Boulware to take over his spot. It also hedges against the loss of Greenwood after the season if he's not signed to long-term deal.

3rd rd pick is not only a need but a value choice. I've read how his stock is rising and is likely to be a solid 2nd rd pick. Again, future need enters the picture. Hedge against potential loss of Chambers.

6th rd picks: Clausen can be brought along slowly and may be a candidate for the expanded PS. DL may be more of a need, but draft doesn't always fall the right way. He's drafted as a versatile DL who could fit in at DE or DT.

7th rd picks: Pair of DB's that can be developed on the PS or maybe contribute on special teams

[clumping platelets]

Pats mock (no explanations)

1,6 - DB Sean Taylor(Miami,Fla)
2,56 - LB Teddy Lehman(Oklahoma)
3,95 - RB Michael Turner(No. Illinois)
4,105 - OL Antonio Hall(Kentucky)
4,128 - DE Ronald Jones(So. Mississippi)
5,164 - WR Kevin Youngblood(Clemson)
7,233 - C Dave Pearson(Michigan)

[clumping platelets]

NY Jets (no explanations)

1,12 - LB D.J. Williams(Miami,Fla)
2,62 - TE Ben Watson(Georgia)
4,132 - OL Alan Reuber(Texas A & M)
5,163 - LB Marquis Cooper(Washington)
6,178 - DE Raheem Orr(Rutgers)
7,213 - DB Curome Cox(Maryland)
7,234 - QB Robert Kent(Jackson St)
7,235 - RB Renaldo Works(Oklahoma)
7,236 - OT Drew Strojny(Duke)

[Dozerdog]

Sorry, Clump- but I'd really have to disagree on this draft strategy. It would be brilliant if this were 2001 and TD had to cut the team to the bone for cap reasons.


This is not a team with a lot of holes all over the roster, I don't see room for 11 new guys. And looking at next season, Jennings, Clements, Bledsoe, and Schobel are the big Free agents/ cap casualties we need to worry about .


3 of those 4 positions you don't address until much later in the draft. I'd rather keep the 13th, Draft a QB (if there), or an OT or DE/DT (which will be there)

There are plenty of WR's to pick one up to replace Moulds down the road in Rd 2, or you get your CB. If there is a run on both positions, ther ewill be plenty of good OL in the second.

Round 3 is where you can look for a TE or FS.

The other route is the "win now- worry about FA next yer when it happends" approach. Then you get OL/DL round 1, a FS (Schweigert or Sean Jones )or stud TE in Rd 2 (Watson) and whatever you didn't get in Rd 2, go for it in Rd 3. Then use the rest to fill up depth in OL, DL, and QB

[ryjam282]

Clump, doesn't Miami not have a 2nd rounder this year...Same thing with the Jets as well....Right?

[clumping platelets]

My draft strategy balances future and present needs.

Under my mock, the top 3 QB's do not make it to #13, nor do Udeze and W. Smith. Bills are not going CB at #13 and that's where I have Denver moving up for CB to pair with Bailey.

I also do not have Losman making it to Bills #2, I have him going to Cards at #33. So, there is no other QB worthy. (Mortensen said recently that Bills and Bledsoe are working on a re-doing of his deal).


OL depth in this draft is NOT good. It's barely average. Bills will need to improve on the OL with the players on the roster and coaching. It not likely that any OL drafted (with exception of Gallery) could start here anyhoo.

I added a TE in rd 3 and FS in rd 2.

I'll address other comments soon

[clumping platelets]

Originally posted by ryjam282
Clump, doesn't Miami not have a 2nd rounder this year...Same thing with the Jets as well....Right?

They add 2nd rd picks via trades in my mock

The Miami trade is listed

[DraftBoy]

Lots of trades but I agree that we address too many holes to late in the draft, DE and OL specifically also a FB in the 4th rd. is not a smart pick IMO, there are still too many good players out there to waste one on a FB. Also you took two DE's but yet no DT's? Ball really cant play DT in the NFL he'd be swallowed up whole. The 4th round down excluding Babin, makes no sense to me as to why the Bills would pick those players. Also include the 3rd round pick of Schaub. If this were the Bills draft Id be extremely dissapointed in TD. Dont mean to sound harsh man but this is my opinion.

[Tatonka]

if we draft schaub.. the draft is a failure.

[The Spaz]

Originally posted by Tatonka
if we draft schaub.. the draft is a failure.

[Devin]

Originally posted by Tatonka
if we draft schaub.. the draft is a failure.

agreed.

Clump where di you have Lee Evans going? Id take him before id take Jenkins.

Hes a Price type reciever, very very fast. Nice coupling with Moulds.

[The Spaz]

We take Schaub and it's a failed draft

[MDFINFAN]

Originally posted by Dozerdog

This is not a team with a lot of holes all over the roster, I don't see room for 11 new guys.

Gotta disagree with you on this Doze..there's a number of holes and I think Clump approach is not bad on this one.

[SoCalBillsFan]

Dozer, my thoughts exactly. We won't be adding that many picks. Even if we do make the initial trade down, I think we'd keep the extra second rounder instead of tarding it away. We need GOOD picks this year, not many picks.