Henry's Trade Value at its Peak?

[BidsJr]

Everyone is focused on the "risk" of going into the season with only Willis if TD decided to trade Travis.

What about the "risk" of not trading Travis when his value potentially is at its highest.

What if it is Travis knee that blows out next year and not Willis?
What if he cannot hang onto the ball?
What if WM is so good that they cannot keep him off the field?

When WM gets back next year he WILL take carries and yards away from TH. He will also put focus on TH lack of recieving skills when he gets REC yards that Travis never gets.

If we wait until next year to trade him, we will get less than we would this year because of less production.


I would take the risk of getting into the top 5 to get Manning/Big Ben/Rivers if we could find a dancing partner, rather than cross my fingers that Travis doesn't blow out his knee or contract fumbleitis again, and ruin his value for next year.


See my mock draft.

Get insurance later on in the draft with Turner, Bell, even Clarrett.

(I Hate Clarett)

[juice]

Detroit, Can I have this dance... They are in desperate need of RB help and would probably put us in the mix for one of the big 3 QB's at #6.

[elltrain22]

I don't really think we can trade Henry, until we see what McGahee can do for us.

[BidsJr]

Would definately put us into the mix.

AND would push another top quality pick to 13.

If we could manage to keep it.

Or trade down.

[The Natrix]

It is definitely at it's peak. No doubt.

[BidsJr]

Remember what MM said on the NFL network?

We are moving forward with our team as IF we will have both Travis and Willis.

[juice]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by BidsJr
[B] Remember what MM said on the NFL network?

.. as IF ..

Sounds suspect to me.

[BidsJr]

ME too.

I'm leaning toward a draft day suprise.

[DraftBoy]

Originally posted by BidsJr
Everyone is focused on the "risk" of going into the season with only Willis if TD decided to trade Travis.

What about the "risk" of not trading Travis when his value potentially is at its highest.

What if it is Travis knee that blows out next year and not Willis?
What if he cannot hang onto the ball?
What if WM is so good that they cannot keep him off the field?

When WM gets back next year he WILL take carries and yards away from TH. He will also put focus on TH lack of recieving skills when he gets REC yards that Travis never gets.

If we wait until next year to trade him, we will get less than we would this year because of less production.


I would take the risk of getting into the top 5 to get Manning/Big Ben/Rivers if we could find a dancing partner, rather than cross my fingers that Travis doesn't blow out his knee or contract fumbleitis again, and ruin his value for next year.


See my mock draft.

Get insurance later on in the draft with Turner, Bell, even Clarrett.

(I Hate Clarett)

Well said. 1000yd rushers are pentiful in the NFL nowadays. Lets move Henry now, but only if the price is right.

[The Spaz]

Oh Christ things are getting hairy!!!!!!!!!

[juice]

Originally posted by elltrain22
I don't really think we can trade Henry, until we see what McGahee can do for us.

ELL, We've seen what he can do at MIA , the only question is rather he is 100% and able to do it this year or if there is a 2 yr rehab period... How does he look to you.. NO kneebrace..235 LBS.. and most importantly believes he is ready.

If the Knee is Healed then there isn't a reason he would go out and make a quick cut and reinjure it. 100% is as good as new, from what I have read about Knee Injuries.. There is as much of a chance that he will injure his other Knee.

[BidsJr]

Originally posted by juice




If the Knee is Healed then there isn't a reason he would go out and make a quick cut and reinjure it. 100% is as good as new, from what I have read about Knee Injuries.. There is as much of a chance that he will injure his other Knee.



Actually according to the doctors, Henry's "non" surgically repaired knees are more likely to be injured that McGahee's surgically repaired knee

[Patrick76777]

You people are nuts!

We’re going to trade away a 2-time 1400 yard rusher just to move up 7 spots in the draft so we can draft a QB who most likely won’t be able to play this year and possibly even next year!

Bizarre Eh!


So now we go into next season with a shaky Drew, a rookie running back with a bum knee and our first round draft pick on the bench for the second year in a row!

Nice!


I’m glad you guys aren’t running this team!

[BidsJr]

This would not be a move up trade!

See my mock draft to see how I have it worked out.

I think we could keep 13

[Patrick76777]

You seem like a nice guy and all, but I think we've got a better chance of seeing TD go up to the podium dressed in a pink tutu and proceed to select Ebenezer in the first round than we have of Oakland giving us the #2 AND a 3rd rounder for Henry!

[juice]

Originally posted by Patrick76777
You people are nuts!

I'm glad you guys aren’t running this team!

Who is the Rook on the Bench? The reason you make this move is so along with a Future QB you also get a 1st rd pick at 13 that can contribute this year and not another Josh Reed Project.

If Draftboy or Nate were running the team we'd make an improvement to 10-6 and the playoffs instead of another halfass 8-8 record. Some of us act as though this was a .500 team last year.

You have to take some risks in this League...

[The Natrix]

Yeah. I think the Oakland thing is far fetched.

I think the only chance is Detroit. If Detroit really wants a RB, they will go with the proven Henry rather than Jackson who doesn't really impress me all that much.

[DraftBoy]

Originally posted by juice


Who is the Rook on the Bench? The reason you make this move is so along with a Future QB you also get a 1st rd pick at 13 that can contribute this year and not another Josh Reed Project.

If Draftboy or Nate were running the team we'd make an improvement to 10-6 and the playoffs instead of another halfass 8-8 record. Some of us act as though this was a .500 team last year.

You have to take some risks in this League...


:bf1: :up:

Well Said!

[Patrick76777]

Originally posted by juice




If Draftboy or Nate were running the team we'd make an improvement to 10-6 and the playoffs instead of another halfass 8-8 record.


LMAO!!!!!!!!!

[DraftBoy]

Originally posted by Patrick76777



LMAO!!!!!!!!!

Not so well said! :sumo:

[Patrick76777]

Originally posted by DraftBoy



:bf1: :up:

Well Said!


Well he kissed your ass! But the fact of the matter is, everything I've read in this thread is BS!


These half ass ideas would never float!

You'd have trouble getting a 2nd rounder for Henry straight up!

[The Natrix]

If the doctors and coaches who watch McGahee everyday think he is ready to go, and they deal Henry, I have no problem with it.

If they don't deal Henry I have no problem with it either.

I don't think this is a case where we, who just see 10 second clips of Willis running through tires, can sit at our computers and say yes trade Henry, or no, keep him. It is a decision that we need to leave soley to the organization.


Volcano would be nice. But Roy or Mike, Rivers, and Willis waiting in the wings is better. It all depends if he is near or at 100%, if the coaches think he is durable enough, and if a top 6 pick can be had for him. A lot of if's is why I don't see it happening.

[Michael82]

The only way I would trade Travis Henry this year, is if the Raiders or the Chargers gave us the #1 or #2 overall picks.

[Patrick76777]

Well it's not about the injury factor. It's about busts! Sometimes these guys are busts and sometimes we don't know if they're busts until they actually play. Why trade Henry, who is not a bust, when his back up could be a bust, God forbid!

[juice]

Originally posted by Patrick76777
Well he kissed your ass! But the fact of the matter is, everything I've read in this thread is BS!


These half ass ideas would never float!

You'd have trouble getting a 2nd rounder for Henry straight up!

:mex: Elevation... ... Just recognition of these guys keeping open minds to new ideas. Keeps the Convo fresh instead of the same old get rid if Drew or Gay Porn Bikini Bottom comments....Elevate

[The Natrix]

Originally posted by Patrick76777
Well it's not about the injury factor. It's about busts! Sometimes these guys are busts and sometimes we don't know if they're busts until they actually play. Why trade Henry, who is not a bust, when his back up could be a bust, God forbid!


No way, the concern is all about his recovery/durability. Skill wise, McGahee is as close to a sure thing as it gets. K. Carter and L. Phillips were not nearly the backs in college that Willis was.


Henry is a good back but I don't see anyway in hell that McGahee could be worse, if he is recovered.

[Patrick76777]

Originally posted by The Natrix



No way, the concern is all about his recovery/durability. Skill wise, McGahee is as close to a sure thing as it gets. K. Carter and L. Phillips were not nearly the backs in college that Willis was.


Henry is a good back but I don't see anyway in hell that McGahee could be worse, if he is recovered.


Are you serious?

Listen, I don't think he will be a bust and I Pray he's not, but it very well could happen!

[BidsJr]

Originally posted by Patrick76777
You seem like a nice guy and all, but I think we've got a better chance of seeing TD go up to the podium dressed in a pink tutu and proceed to select Ebenezer in the first round than we have of Oakland giving us the #2 AND a 3rd rounder for Henry!

They would also get a conditional pick in next years draft.

1500yds for Henry 3rd
1000-1499yds 2nd
less that 1000 1st

[BidsJr]

Originally posted by Patrick76777
You people are nuts!



Bizarre Eh!



Nice!


I’m glad you guys aren’t running this team!




Sounds a lot like John Kerry!

[The Natrix]

He may not live up to the hype but there is no way he would be a complete bust, to the point that we think of our running game as non-existent. Maybe he would struggle in his first couple of starts but after that he would be just fine. Besides we have Drew, so he can take over the first couple of games if need be. :snicker:


But again, my stance is if on draft day Henry gets dealt for a top 6 pick, I won't get the slightest bit upset. That is all. I am BY NO MEANS pushing hard for the trading of Henry after just watching 10 second clips of Willis running through tires. I'm leaving this one up to the BUFFALO BILLS ORGANIZATION. This isn't a case like Bledsoe where we have an 11 year career to help us form an opinion.


I'm going to sit back on draft day, and if it happens it happens. :bf1:

[BidsJr]

Sending him off for a top 10 pick in this very deep top 15 would be fine with me.

EVEN if it set us back a year.

[The Spaz]

we can't afford to have a setback everyone will be calling for Mularky 's and TD's heads and some are now.

[chernobylwraiths]

Originally posted by Patrick76777
You seem like a nice guy and all, but I think we've got a better chance of seeing TD go up to the podium dressed in a pink tutu and proceed to select Ebenezer in the first round than we have of Oakland giving us the #2 AND a 3rd rounder for Henry!

:rofl: :lolcry:

[DraftBoy]

Originally posted by The Spaz
we can't afford to have a setback everyone will be calling for Mularky 's and TD's heads and some are now.

I dont necessairly losing Henry would be a setback. Especially IF McG comes back 100%. Now Id only deal him if its for a top pick. I am by no means pushing hard to deal him but if the price is right why not? Henry is by no means the best back in the NFL, we can always improve, so why not take a shot at it.

[juice]

Originally posted by The Spaz
we can't afford to have a setback everyone will be calling for Mularky 's and TD's heads and some are now.

An 8-8 year would be a setback year.. and is a liklyhood with our road schedule.

[The Spaz]

Originally posted by DraftBoy


I dont necessairly losing Henry would be a setback. Especially IF McG comes back 100%. Now Id only deal him if its for a top pick. I am by no means pushing hard to deal him but if the price is right why not? Henry is by no means the best back in the NFL, we can always improve, so why not take a shot at it.

I was replying to Bidsjr.:beer:

[Iehoshua]

To all those who think Henry is inexpendable and that the Bills could never trade him, I say this.



Clinton Portis.



I view Portis as a better back than Henry, and who's behind him, Quentin Griffin, who had a few good outings. True they got a franchise corner in exchange, but if trading Henry could get us a better pick, why not? Trade the fumbler.

[DraftBoy]

Originally posted by Patrick76777



Well he kissed your ass! But the fact of the matter is, everything I've read in this thread is BS!


Dont be jealous now

[Mr. Miyagi]

If McGahee turns out awesome, and Travis loses carries but without being injured, by next year we can still trade him. Teams aren't going to discredit Henry's ability just because he loses carries due to somebody else's ability. Henry will still be good, teams will see films from last few seasons and still want him.

See Corey Dillon, Stephen Davis, Garrison Hearst, and Ricky Williams.

Plus, even if we trade him now we won't get a high 1st rounder for him anyway.

Keep him this year, trade him the next.

[Patrick76777]

Originally posted by DraftBoy


Dont be jealous now


I’m not a self proclaimed expert at the draft!

[The Natrix]

:popcorn:

[Stewie]

Originally posted by BidsJr
Everyone is focused on the "risk" of going into the season with only Willis if TD decided to trade Travis.

What about the "risk" of not trading Travis when his value potentially is at its highest.

What if it is Travis knee that blows out next year and not Willis?
What if he cannot hang onto the ball?
What if WM is so good that they cannot keep him off the field?

When WM gets back next year he WILL take carries and yards away from TH. He will also put focus on TH lack of recieving skills when he gets REC yards that Travis never gets.

If we wait until next year to trade him, we will get less than we would this year because of less production.


I would take the risk of getting into the top 5 to get Manning/Big Ben/Rivers if we could find a dancing partner, rather than cross my fingers that Travis doesn't blow out his knee or contract fumbleitis again, and ruin his value for next year.


See my mock draft.

Get insurance later on in the draft with Turner, Bell, even Clarrett.

(I Hate Clarett)

I agree that Henry's value may never be higher. That said, I'd only trade him for Big Ben or Manning.

Personally, I think TH has fine receiving skills, he just never got a chance to catch 60 balls because of Gilbride.

[Stewie]

Trade him for the opportunity to draft Big Ben or Manning, that is...

[DraftBoy]

Originally posted by Patrick76777



I’m not a self proclaimed expert at the draft!


Oohh self-proclaimed, I guess that means I run the BZ then since im the bz draft expert. Its not like I asked LOG to get the title. I was approached. Also does this mean T, and Spaz are self proclaimed too?

[The_Philster]

Originally posted by Patrick76777
Well it's not about the injury factor. It's about busts! Sometimes these guys are busts and sometimes we don't know if they're busts until they actually play. Why trade Henry, who is not a bust, when his back up could be a bust, God forbid!
Couldn't agree more. Taking risks is one thing...but they should be calculated risks...giving up our offensive MVP for a few draft slots? :shakeno:

Originally posted by The Natrix
No way, the concern is all about his recovery/durability. Skill wise, McGahee is as close to a sure thing as it gets. K. Carter and L. Phillips were not nearly the backs in college that Willis was.


Henry is a good back but I don't see anyway in hell that McGahee could be worse, if he is recovered.
That's the key word.."if"
As far as the comparisons, I'll admit I didn't see McGahee play much at all but Ki-Jana was one hell of a back at PSU.

Originally posted by The Spaz
we can't afford to have a setback everyone will be calling for Mularky 's and TD's heads and some are now.

Exactly...we've got a proven player at RB and tossing him out without something solid behind him (McGahee isn't solid until he shows he can do the job consistently) is foolhardy at best.

[BidsJr]

Originally posted by The_Philster

Couldn't agree more. Taking risks is one thing...but they should be calculated risks...giving up our offensive MVP for a few draft slots?




I was talking about sending Henry and a conditional pick next year for the #2 and the Raiders 3rd round pick this year.

We would keep the 13th pick

[Dozerdog]

Originally posted by BidsJr
Everyone is focused on the "risk" of going into the season with only Willis if TD decided to trade Travis.

What about the "risk" of not trading Travis when his value potentially is at its highest.

What if it is Travis knee that blows out next year and not Willis?
What if he cannot hang onto the ball?
What if WM is so good that they cannot keep him off the field?

When WM gets back next year he WILL take carries and yards away from TH. He will also put focus on TH lack of recieving skills when he gets REC yards that Travis never gets.

If we wait until next year to trade him, we will get less than we would this year because of less production.


I would take the risk of getting into the top 5 to get Manning/Big Ben/Rivers if we could find a dancing partner, rather than cross my fingers that Travis doesn't blow out his knee or contract fumbleitis again, and ruin his value for next year.


See my mock draft.

Get insurance later on in the draft with Turner, Bell, even Clarrett.

(I Hate Clarett)

"Trade Value" is more of a function of how desperate another team is rather than what numbers Henry puts up. This season it's a buyer's market. Denver, San Fran & Cincy all exposed to the market top flight running backs in Portis, Hearst, and Dillon. Dillon will be a draft day trade.

Next year, a very desperate team may go overboard to pay for Henry even though he 's got only half the yards and half the carries. I can see Denver doing this if they find out that they really can't plug "just anybody" in at tailback.


Henry has proven he can be a top back. I don't see how less wear and tear in 2004 devalues him.

[Dozerdog]

Originally posted by BidsJr
I was talking about sending Henry and a conditional pick next year for the #2 and the Raiders 3rd round pick this year.

We would keep the 13th pick


Al Davis would pee his pants laughing at you if you brought that proposal to him just for the #2 overall pick, let alone the #2 and a 3rd rounder. Al can pick up the phone today and get Dillon for his 3rd round pick right now.


If you were Al, would you give up Gallery, Manning, or Fitz AND your 3rd round pick For Henry and a pick in a much weaker draft a year away? No way in hell.

They don't have a second this year - so they would have no 1st day picks in the deepest draft in 25 years. If anything, Al Davis trades down to acquire more picks.

[Nighthawk]

If the Bills could get the #6 pick in the draft for Henry, they would be nuts not to take it! Trust me, the Bills know whether Willis is healed and if he is, take the chance...we need more help than just one guy in this draft to make us a true contender. Get the QB, then we get a very good player at #13...it would be too good to be true. It makes too much sense, that is why it won't happen. I'm for it, though!

[Nighthawk]

Dozerdog, less wear & tear on Henry devalues him because teams know that you have to get rid of him. Look at the Dillon situation in Cincy...he forced their hand & Johnson's emergence in the backfield has not helped Cincy's position. You always trade a player at their highest value point and Henry is there right now. Let's hope Donohoe knows this!

[juice]

Originally posted by Dozerdog
"Trade Value" is more of a function of how desperate another team is rather than what numbers Henry puts up. This season it's a buyer's market. Denver, San Fran & Cincy all exposed to the market top flight running backs in Portis, Hearst, and Dillon. Dillon will be a draft day trade.

Next year, a very desperate team may go overboard to pay for Henry even though he 's got only half the yards and half the carries. I can see Denver doing this if they find out that they really can't plug "just anybody" in at tailback.


Henry has proven he can be a top back. I don't see how less wear and tear in 2004 devalues him.

Next year will be a deeper RB draft class soo there might not be too many desperate takers especially if Henry's #s are cut in half.

Denver would just use the Draft to fill any needs in their RB corps next year.

[BidsJr]

The example of Dillon is a great one.

He would have fetched much more last off season than this one.

[The Spaz]

Bengals didn't know what they had in Rudi Johnson and who knows he could still be a 1 year wonder.

[The Natrix]

Originally posted by Nighthawk
If the Bills could get the #6 pick in the draft for Henry, they would be nuts not to take it! Trust me, the Bills know whether Willis is healed and if he is, take the chance...we need more help than just one guy in this draft to make us a true contender. Get the QB, then we get a very good player at #13...it would be too good to be true. It makes too much sense, that is why it won't happen. I'm for it, though!


:bf1:



This team was 6-10. You can blame the coaching all you want but the fact still remains that a mark of 6-10 was posted.

The Bills did not have a competitive advantage going in to this offseason. They ranked #13 in terms of cap shape. In theory, 12 other teams got better in FA. Remember, the Bills were 6-10.

Another newsfash: every team takes part in the draft. We can't expect to get a 1st and a 2nd pick to elevate this team to contender status, especially when every other team is looking for potential studs on the 24th. Again, the Bills were 6-10.

Many of the key players on this team are in there 30s: Moulds, Bledsoe (simply because it is the QB position), both DTs in Pat and Sam, Milloy, Vincent, Villarial. The thing is, every single one of these players either regressed from the previous season or stayed the same.

This thing has to happen now with the current core of players or it will never happen. If they fail to make the playoffs this year, a patchwork job on the current core will be a lost cause...

...However, this doesn't mean the draft should not address the future, it simply means that some RISKS should be made to give us a chance to win now. The perfect way to accomplish this is to move Henry if it is an option. Again this depends on the coaches and doctors evaluation of Willis and of course, a willing team to trade with.

If Henry is dealt and McGahee is a bust (highly unlikely) or is injured (more likely than the former senario) there is a good chance that the team was going nowhere anyway, namely because of poor QB play, inadaquate pass rush coupled with suspect FS coverage, poor O-line chemistry, Defensive coaching minus Williams and Lebeau and possibly other weaknesses. A new RB can be found when the QB and WR that are to be drafted this year are coming in to their own.

You gotta take risks. You can't be a conservative fairy, like the guy who plays nothing but nickel slots during a weekend at the casino.

[STAMPY]

Well my friend Draftboy... Travis isn't just a 1000 yard rusher, he's a back to back 1400 yard rusher who brings it every down, something corey dillon isn't known to do. travis was the heart and sole of our pathetic offense, the guy had a hell of a seaon with a fractured leg in last 5 games, he still kept playing and well at it... he had a better year then ricky williams for christ sake.

i just do not understand why you would trade travis henry before seeing what willis has at the nfl level. also to see if that injury slowed him down, i just think it is beyond sanity to let gto of the number one offensive weapon for an unknown with potential, i seen guys with more prostegious collegiate careers fail. ki jana was a great example.

i'll admit im a huge fan of travis as i believe he's in his prime and we know what he brings. loads of td's and 100 yard potential every game. i'm happy with that. Magahee we don't know yet... let's see what he has. If he's better then make a move, Theres such thing as smart risk and then theres russian roulette, i'm not interested in that, i see you and few are.

i always say... YA NEVER APPRECIATE WHAT YOU HAVE... TILL IT'S GONE!!!

[STAMPY]

Originally posted by BidsJr
The example of Dillon is a great one.

He would have fetched much more last off season than this one.

Dillon quit on his team and asked to be traded few times even when team was winning, Henry has been our warrior