Ingtar33
10-23-2002, 11:09 PM
The fish were squished, much to the delight of Western New York, as the Bills heralded their return to NFL respectability with a 13point win in Miami. Furthermore, the south Florida win brought the Bills into contention for the AFC East crown, as we now find ourselves back just one game to the 'fins. I know a lot of heads must be shaking right now in New England as they reconsider their decision to trade a franchise QB to a division opponent once thought inferior. The Pats miscalculation, which was predicated on an apparent lack of historical understanding… an unforgivable folly further magnified by their own recent history, that in this parity crazy league the difference between first and last can be a small as one player or injury may come back to haunt them. Well their mistake is our gain; a gain I have every intention of enjoying next Sunday as the Bills welcome the 2-4 Detroit Lions to the noisy confines of Ralph Wilson Stadium.
This weekly review will follow the structure of the previous reviews, with a look at the match-ups, and a prediction on the score. For the gamblers, you'll note that my two game slide is now over thanks to an inspired defensive effort in Miami, bringing my record against the point spread back into positive ground at 4-3. However last Sunday did turn out to be a mixed blessing as for the first time all year the Bills and their opponent failed to light up the score board, putting the first blemish on my now 6-1 over/under record. Those Bills fans simply interested in my predictive powers for the purposes of post game party planning (and not for the lure of gambling winnings) will be satisfied to know that I've rarely lead you wrong, with a stellar 6-1 record in picking the winners of these contests.
When the Bills have the ball and are...
Running: Due to two straight 100yard rushing games against highly regarded defenses, it is safe to say that the Bills Travis Henry is rapidly become a fearsome weapon in the Bills arsenal. The Bills ground game has been aided in recent weeks by the growing fear throughout the league of our deep passing game. Gilbride’s propensity to call for deep passes in short yardage situations has resulted in a loosening of defensive boxes, allowing our mammoth O-line to open sizeable holes for the decisive Henry. The Detroit Lions have had very limited success against the run this year, as their D has only been able to stop opposing back when no credible passing threat was present. Their run D has also been victims of their own poor tackling and a lack of speed in their front seven. Considering these factors, it should be another successful game for Henry who should threaten 100yards again as the Bills have run all over much stronger D’s thus far this year.
Passing: The passing game finally showed signs of mortality last week as the Bills had difficulty both with a bad case of stone hands, and poor pass protection. It reminded me of those down games the old Bills no-huddle used to have, when you just knew that the only thing stopping them were themselves. This is to be expected as the Bills O has been pushing perfection for so long it was only to be expected that they would have some difficulties eventually. They should have no problem moving the ball against the Lions porous pass D, with is currently ranked 29th in the league. The Lions woes stem from their slow secondary and very poor pass rush (a pass rush which has yielded only 8 sacks and very few QB pressures thus far). The only players of note on the Lions D are safety Corey Harris, who has an INT and leads the team with 2 sacks, and linebacker Chris Claiborne who lead the Lions with 3 INTs. Bledsoe and company should be able to light it up against a Lions team who, along with the Chiefs, actually average more points against per game than the Bills.
When the Lions have the ball and are...
Running: The Bills run defense has been showing steady signs of improvement as the players seem to be gaining more confidence in the system. Last week (in Miami) was the first time that London Fletcher seemed to become active in the Bills D as he seemed more comfortable with his gap assignments and seemed to be reacting more than he was thinking. Both the Bills DTs have shown considerable improvement, as Pat Williams seems hell bent to make the Pro Bowl, reminding me more and more of Ted Washington with every week. The Lions have had some difficulty getting the ground game going this year, as James Stewart (who was always a little slow to the hole) has had some great difficulty finding holes behind the Lions line. Before last week’s explosion against an injury riddled bears front, Stewart was only averaging 13.5 carries per game… which was a symptom of several things like playing in a WCO, poor run blocking, and the Lions finding themselves in very deep holes early, resulting in an abandonment of the run. As a result the Bills slowly improving front seven should be able to contain the Lions poor running attack.
Passing: Strangely enough, while the Bills 25th ranked Run D has shown some signs of improvement, I’m still not sold on the Bills 16th ranked pass D. Thus far the Bills pass rush has given opposing QBs far too much time (because our DTs are unable to collapse the pocket), and our DBs have given opposing receivers far too much space to stop anyone consistently on third down. The Lions run the pass happy WCO, an O which traditionally has only one Achilles heel, a vulnerability to a strong center pass rush. Fortunately for the Lions their O-line have been fairly solid pass blocking. Joey Harrington has picked up the WCO fairly quickly, and while his footwork is a little poor, his mind is certainly up to the task. As a result he has been very hard to sack. Luckily for the Bills this week, he is cursed with little to no rushing threat, and fairly inconsistent receivers. Look for Harrington to move the ball, but his inconsistencies will keep the Lions from truly threatening.
Conclusion
To this point in the season the Bills have been a better road team (3-1) than a home team (1-2). There doesn’t seem to be any logical reason for this, other than perhaps the competition that the Bills have faced on the road has been worst than that at home. Either way, its time for the Bills to make the Ralph a nightmare for opposing teams to play at. The Lions will come to the Ralph flying high, and carrying something truly dangerous… “hope.” The Bills will need to jump on the Lions early and blow them out of the stadium, because our D still makes me nervous. The Lions will put up a fight but expect the Bills to win 34-17
This weekly review will follow the structure of the previous reviews, with a look at the match-ups, and a prediction on the score. For the gamblers, you'll note that my two game slide is now over thanks to an inspired defensive effort in Miami, bringing my record against the point spread back into positive ground at 4-3. However last Sunday did turn out to be a mixed blessing as for the first time all year the Bills and their opponent failed to light up the score board, putting the first blemish on my now 6-1 over/under record. Those Bills fans simply interested in my predictive powers for the purposes of post game party planning (and not for the lure of gambling winnings) will be satisfied to know that I've rarely lead you wrong, with a stellar 6-1 record in picking the winners of these contests.
When the Bills have the ball and are...
Running: Due to two straight 100yard rushing games against highly regarded defenses, it is safe to say that the Bills Travis Henry is rapidly become a fearsome weapon in the Bills arsenal. The Bills ground game has been aided in recent weeks by the growing fear throughout the league of our deep passing game. Gilbride’s propensity to call for deep passes in short yardage situations has resulted in a loosening of defensive boxes, allowing our mammoth O-line to open sizeable holes for the decisive Henry. The Detroit Lions have had very limited success against the run this year, as their D has only been able to stop opposing back when no credible passing threat was present. Their run D has also been victims of their own poor tackling and a lack of speed in their front seven. Considering these factors, it should be another successful game for Henry who should threaten 100yards again as the Bills have run all over much stronger D’s thus far this year.
Passing: The passing game finally showed signs of mortality last week as the Bills had difficulty both with a bad case of stone hands, and poor pass protection. It reminded me of those down games the old Bills no-huddle used to have, when you just knew that the only thing stopping them were themselves. This is to be expected as the Bills O has been pushing perfection for so long it was only to be expected that they would have some difficulties eventually. They should have no problem moving the ball against the Lions porous pass D, with is currently ranked 29th in the league. The Lions woes stem from their slow secondary and very poor pass rush (a pass rush which has yielded only 8 sacks and very few QB pressures thus far). The only players of note on the Lions D are safety Corey Harris, who has an INT and leads the team with 2 sacks, and linebacker Chris Claiborne who lead the Lions with 3 INTs. Bledsoe and company should be able to light it up against a Lions team who, along with the Chiefs, actually average more points against per game than the Bills.
When the Lions have the ball and are...
Running: The Bills run defense has been showing steady signs of improvement as the players seem to be gaining more confidence in the system. Last week (in Miami) was the first time that London Fletcher seemed to become active in the Bills D as he seemed more comfortable with his gap assignments and seemed to be reacting more than he was thinking. Both the Bills DTs have shown considerable improvement, as Pat Williams seems hell bent to make the Pro Bowl, reminding me more and more of Ted Washington with every week. The Lions have had some difficulty getting the ground game going this year, as James Stewart (who was always a little slow to the hole) has had some great difficulty finding holes behind the Lions line. Before last week’s explosion against an injury riddled bears front, Stewart was only averaging 13.5 carries per game… which was a symptom of several things like playing in a WCO, poor run blocking, and the Lions finding themselves in very deep holes early, resulting in an abandonment of the run. As a result the Bills slowly improving front seven should be able to contain the Lions poor running attack.
Passing: Strangely enough, while the Bills 25th ranked Run D has shown some signs of improvement, I’m still not sold on the Bills 16th ranked pass D. Thus far the Bills pass rush has given opposing QBs far too much time (because our DTs are unable to collapse the pocket), and our DBs have given opposing receivers far too much space to stop anyone consistently on third down. The Lions run the pass happy WCO, an O which traditionally has only one Achilles heel, a vulnerability to a strong center pass rush. Fortunately for the Lions their O-line have been fairly solid pass blocking. Joey Harrington has picked up the WCO fairly quickly, and while his footwork is a little poor, his mind is certainly up to the task. As a result he has been very hard to sack. Luckily for the Bills this week, he is cursed with little to no rushing threat, and fairly inconsistent receivers. Look for Harrington to move the ball, but his inconsistencies will keep the Lions from truly threatening.
Conclusion
To this point in the season the Bills have been a better road team (3-1) than a home team (1-2). There doesn’t seem to be any logical reason for this, other than perhaps the competition that the Bills have faced on the road has been worst than that at home. Either way, its time for the Bills to make the Ralph a nightmare for opposing teams to play at. The Lions will come to the Ralph flying high, and carrying something truly dangerous… “hope.” The Bills will need to jump on the Lions early and blow them out of the stadium, because our D still makes me nervous. The Lions will put up a fight but expect the Bills to win 34-17