Super Bowl pick? Recent trend says AFC again, and it'll be Miami

[ajsdx]

The 2004 season is less than four months away, but if you want to get a jump on the Super Bowl favorite, look no further than these eight teams: Tennessee, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, Baltimore, Oakland, Denver and Pittsburgh.

...

• Dolphins -- Forget a quarterback controversy; Jay Fiedler is the best man for the job, but A.J. Feeley is a nice insurance policy for when Fiedler goes down. And he will go down. Fiedler has missed 13 games the past two seasons.

Dolphins QBs
Career Statistics
Player G Comp. Att. Yards TD Int. Rating
Feeley 7 96 168 1,154 8 6 79.3
Fiedler 66 899 1,514 10,551 61 58 78.1



Fiedler and Feeley's career numbers are comparable, both throwing a TD about every 22 attempts and a pick once every 27 attempts, and their passer ratings are similar. Familiarity with the Dolphins' system -- even under first-year offensive coordinator Chris Foerster -- should give Fiedler the edge coming out of training camp. After that, it's up to him to a) make the offense click and b) stay healthy.

"Chris is going to do a great job for the Dolphins," Peyton Manning said. "When he was here in Indianapolis, I appreciated his input in our offense, and I know our tight ends, Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark, did as well. He brings knowledge and passion to the game and will be a true asset in Miami."

Miami's offense is in good shape (the cross-your-fingers O-line overhaul not withstanding), especially if David Boston escapes the funk he's been in the past two seasons. If the line holds up, Ricky Williams can be counted on for 1,800 yards -- or more. But the breakout performer may be tight end Randy McMichael, who doesn't get the hype of Jeremy Shockey, but is equally as talented.

Defensively, time is growing short for linebackers Junior Seau and Zach Thomas, but ends Jason Taylor and Adewale Ogunleye are the best bookends on one team in the game. The departure of Brock Marion will shake up the defensive backfield, but the foursome of Sam Madison, Patrick Surtain, Arturo Freeman and Sammy Knight remains solid (and don't be surprised if rookie CB Will Poole doesn't make his presence felt early in the season).

The Dolphins have 50 wins since 1999, third most in the AFC, but Miami is only 10-12 in the month of December. By comparison, the Patriots are 13-7 (8-0 in their Super Bowl-winning seasons), so winning down the stretch is something Dave Wannstedt must improve.

Miami plays five games against 2003 playoff teams, but the schedule makers cut the Dolphins a two-fold break by having the team go to New England in October (Week 5), which is early enough in the season that weather shouldn't be a factor, but far enough into the year that the offense and newcomers should have a feel for the game plan.

The toughest stretch of the season will be Weeks 11-17. After a bye in Week 10, Miami makes back-to-back trips to the left coast to play the Seahawks and Niners before playing host to the Bills, traveling to Denver, then hosting the Pats and Browns before wrapping up the regular season at Baltimore.

If the Dolphins survive that stretch at no worse than 5-2, they should be in position to make the short run up I-95 to Jacksonville's ALLTEL Stadium, site of Super Bowl XXXIX -- and win the AFC's second consecutive title to keep the two-out-of-three streak alive.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/writers/b_duane_cross/05/20/doping.the.afc/index.html

[B-DON]

yeah right i will bet money they dont win the bowl let alone make it there

[Earthquake Enyart]

Hope they put the fins on the cover. :snicker:

[Aero II]

Yah right. And Tampa was going to repeat too. :eyeroll:

[B-DON]

i was thinking the samething.ROFL

[TigerJ]

Now let me get this straight. If David Boston can stay out of a funk, and if the offensive line actually works, and if Randy McMichael has a breakout year, and if the linebackers don't hit the wall, and if the Dolphins can have a great stretch in the middle of the season, and if they can avoid their typical December swoon, they can go to the Super Bowl? I could add some more "ifs." If disgruntled DE Ogunleye doesn't manifest his disgruntlement either on the field or in the lockerroom, and if Dave Wannstedt proves he actually has what it takes to win, and if Foerster can really step in as OC and run an offence with which he has no first hand experience having never worked with Norv Turner, then the Dolphins might be something other than a late fading pretender.

If every one of my stocks gains 10 times their present value, I can put my kids through college and have money left over for a big down payment on a house.

I could create a similar scenario for the Bills, that IMHO has every bit as much chance as happening as the one concocted by Duane Cross. If Mularkey can resurrect Bledsoe's career as he has done to other QBs in the past, and if Travis Henry and Willis McGahee ca combi9ne to make a potent RB threat, and if Jim McNally, arguably the best O-line coach in the NFL, can take an athletic group of linemen and turn them into a productive line, and if Eric Moulds returns to his preinjury form, and if Lee Evans can have a reasonably productive rookie campaign, and it Tom Clements is the capable offensive coordinator that a lot of people think he is, and if Ryan Denney and Chris Kelsay justify the optimism placed in them by the coaching staff, and if Jerry Gray can be a great DC without Dick LeBeau looking over his shoulder, and if Buffalo can go 4-2 in the division, then Buffalo has a great chance to go to the Super Bowl. Hey, I like my chances!

[Jan Reimers]

Great post TigerJ. If ifs and buts were candy and nuts...

[tampabay25690]

Yea RIGHT........................With all the drama that is going on right now in Miami......I don't see it happeneing at all.....Ricky williams is blazing another fatty reading this post!!!!!!!!

My pick is Philly to the Bowl!!

[Goobylal]

B. Duane Cross isn't too bright, is he? However that's the nature of sportswriters: make a prediction, change it later-on, and don't be held accountable for it. I guess Miami can fight through their problems and do what they haven't done in the past with more talented/younger teams, but I wouldn't bet a plug nickel. I'll even go so far as to say they won't make the playoffs this year.

[tomdonahoe]

WHAT??????????????? I just checked the calendar to make sure this wasn't the first of April. Now that I've picked myself off the floor...

All you have to say is that Miami has five folding chairs as an offensive line with Alfred E. Newman under center and Cheech Marin running the ball.

B. Duane Cross sounds like he should be commenting on local fishing or hunting rather than football.

[Samphin1]

Originally posted by tampabay25690
Yea RIGHT........................With all the drama that is going on right now in Miami......I don't see it happeneing at all.....Ricky williams is blazing another fatty reading this post!!!!!!!!

My pick is Philly to the Bowl!!

Ok, but the Eagles are in the NFC, Dolphins are in the AFC. See how that works? I think this article is like all the other ones that deal with power polls and predictions. It is worthless. Tiger J is right, a lot of ifs in there. I imagine some of them will happen but all of them is kind of stretchign it. It is nice to see some national media have faith in Miami as opposed to our own beat writers blasting us every chance they get. Again though, its May, people need to stop with the silly predictions.

[Goobylal]

Originally posted by Samphin1


Ok, but the Eagles are in the NFC, Dolphins are in the AFC. See how that works? I think this article is like all the other ones that deal with power polls and predictions. It is worthless. Tiger J is right, a lot of ifs in there. I imagine some of them will happen but all of them is kind of stretchign it. It is nice to see some national media have faith in Miami as opposed to our own beat writers blasting us every chance they get. Again though, its May, people need to stop with the silly predictions.
As I said, it's possible that Miami becomes a SB contender, but to predict that they'll win the SB at this point is ludicrous.

[ShadowHawk7]

Geez, how overrated can Ricky get?

[tampabay25690]

Well in the AFC again I will say New England again!!!!!!!!!!

[clumping platelets]

With their OL, they will be lucky to make the playoffs.

[Dantheman1280]

Let me guess the phins will have a repeat of 72'. Then pig will fly and ricky will stop smoking, and David Boston will lose weight. It Will just be a pleasantville in Miami....... FOR ME TO POOP ON!!

[RUDEbyallMEANS]

I don't agree with this article.

Miami has questions at QB and O-line. Arguably the 2 most important positions on a football team.

There is a thread on PhinHeaven about this and almost ALL have the same insight as I.

[DraftBoy]

Originally posted by RUDEbyallMEANS
I don't agree with this article.

Miami has questions at QB and O-line. Arguably the 2 most important positions on a football team.

There is a thread on PhinHeaven about this and almost ALL have the same insight as I.

You also questions about depth, and DB's, and LB

[Samphin1]

Originally posted by DraftBoy


You also questions about depth, and DB's, and LB

Questions about DB depth? I am sorry but this is our deepest position by far. Sam Madison, Patrick Surtain, Reggie Howard of the Panthers last year, Will Poole, a highly ranked CB and what most say is a steal in the fourth round.

Sammy Knight, Arturo Freeman, Atwan Edwards and Shawn Wooden shore up a solid safety position. If there is one place we are set, it is DB's. Also, our D-line is pretty solid througout as well. The Linebacker depth is a question thoug, although not a big one imo. Eddie Moore, Crash Jenkins and Brendan Ayabadejo should shore up LB spot sufficiently. However, Moore is coming of an injury and Jenkins and Brendan are still young.

Overall though, our starting depth and bench depth on defense is superb.

[RUDEbyallMEANS]

Originally posted by DraftBoy
You also questions about depth, and DB's, and LB

Like Samphin has stated, Miami's secondary is LOADED. Madison, Surtain, Howard and Poole at CB's with Edwards, Freeman, Knight, Wooden and Yeremiah Bell at safeties.

LOADED.

At LB, the depth is very inexperienced but there is very good talent there. Eddie Moore is being talked about replacing someone in nickel situations because of his speed, quickness and instincts he showed last year in TC and in these mini camps where he's looked at being back to normal. Jenkins had some game time snaps last year. Derrick Pope and Tony Bua are strictly hard hitting special teamers for the most part, they're only rookies.

If depth is a question, DT is the answer to that question. IMO.

Other than that, Miami's defense is rock solid. DT is only concern to me.

[Goobylal]

Originally posted by RUDEbyallMEANS
Other than that, Miami's defense is rock solid. DT is only concern to me.
Age at LB'er (specifically Seau and Thomas), Moore's foot problems and Greenwood's averageness should be concerns as well. So too should be LDE. Ogunleye wants to be paid a ton of money and his starting point for a signing bonus is $15M! The problem is, Huizenga basically told him he's a "good" player and not a "great" player (probably true), and that he'll be paid like a "good" player. To me that means holdout for the first 10 games of the season. The Dols can neither afford, nor do they want, to pay Ogunleye even close to what he wants.

[Dannyboy]

Remember when the hype in the sports media was how the NFC was dominant to the point of never relinquishing the Super Bowl title? And the Bills' timing in getting there was at the crescendo of this nonsense. My my, how times have changed. Back to a more even keel. Or really, leaning more to the AFC.

[Samphin1]

Originally posted by Goobylal

Age at LB'er (specifically Seau and Thomas), Moore's foot problems and Greenwood's averageness should be concerns as well. So too should be LDE. Ogunleye wants to be paid a ton of money and his starting point for a signing bonus is $15M! The problem is, Huizenga basically told him he's a "good" player and not a "great" player (probably true), and that he'll be paid like a "good" player. To me that means holdout for the first 10 games of the season. The Dols can neither afford, nor do they want, to pay Ogunleye even close to what he wants.

Seau is older yes, but Thomas at 30 is still better than most linebackers in the league still. Moore overcoming the foot injury will be intregral to our depth ( or lack thereof) at LB. Greenwood has bene average throughout his career, but almost all dolphin fans agree he turned a corner last year. Seau really made him step up his game. Remember, he is essentially only on the field for first and second downs. His numbers based off of that info are pretty good.

Ogunleye and Miami have resumed talks. That is definately a positive and a lot better than both sides pouting in respective corners. Something tells me that this gets resolved shortly into training camp. If not, we put David Bowens at LDE who seems to do ok there and Jay Williams as well. That shortens the DE/DT rotation, but that is why you have depth too. You could see McMicheal, Surtain, Knight and a couple of others get new deals to help Miami resign O-gun and later Chambers.

[Outtawack]

Originally posted by Samphin1
Ogunleye and Miami have resumed talks. That is definately a positive and a lot better than both sides pouting in respective corners. Something tells me that this gets resolved shortly into training camp. If not, we put David Bowens at LDE who seems to do ok there and Jay Williams as well. That shortens the DE/DT rotation, but that is why you have depth too.

Your forgetting Otis Grigsby at the end too. David Bowens was actually slated to start over Ogunleye in 2002 till he was injured. I have heard reports now that Otis is looking really good too and will Battle for the position if Ogunleye doesnt come back. I would like him back, but that position doesnt seem to be a problem at all right now.

How are bills fans able to make fun of our O-line?? Yours was worse. I am worried about our O-line, but I think it will be a strength by the it matters the most. I dont think it will be worse than last year, and I believe it will be better then last years by November. They just needs gell time.

I dont believe we will be in the superbowl though. They will have to show me they can be a good enough team, if they do that by mid/late season I think I might start to believe.

[Goobylal]

Originally posted by Outtawack
Your forgetting Otis Grigsby at the end too. David Bowens was actually slated to start over Ogunleye in 2002 till he was injured. I have heard reports now that Otis is looking really good too and will Battle for the position if Ogunleye doesnt come back. I would like him back, but that position doesnt seem to be a problem at all right now.
Bowens is a journeyman-quality player. If he starts for you guys, it won't be pretty. As for Grigsby, if he's looking good against your RT, that's not good news either. The difference is that Ogunleye was a highly-touted lineman in college (considered a 1st rounder by some), whose stock plummeted after suffering a serious injury as a senior. Bowens and Grigsby weren't highly-touted and I'd be less inclinced to believe they're even half as good as Ogunleye until they play in real games and play well.


How are bills fans able to make fun of our O-line?? Yours was worse. I am worried about our O-line, but I think it will be a strength by the it matters the most. I dont think it will be worse than last year, and I believe it will be better then last years by November. They just needs gell time.
The Bills certainly have the talent on the O-line. What they've been lacking is the coaching, and that's finally been fixed, along with a good FA signing (Villarrial). Most of the O-line will have worked together for a few years, whereas Miami's will be all-new, and RT McIntosh still isn't out of a cast. And outside of James, I don't know if I can say the Fins added quality players.

[McBFLO]

Originally posted by tomdonahoe
WHAT??????????????? I just checked the calendar to make sure this wasn't the first of April. Now that I've picked myself off the floor...

All you have to say is that Miami has five folding chairs as an offensive line with Alfred E. Newman under center and Cheech Marin running the ball.

B. Duane Cross sounds like he should be commenting on local fishing or hunting rather than football.

Nice, I'll agree. So should Prisco.


Originally posted by Dantheman1280
Let me guess the phins will have a repeat of 72'. Then pig will fly and ricky will stop smoking, and David Boston will lose weight. It Will just be a pleasantville in Miami....... FOR ME TO POOP ON!!

FOR ME TO POOP ON! ha ha, nice. You never never beat a good ol' Triumph reference.

[BigZ]

I think the article is right on - but they left out the part where Wanstadt is fired after the first game!

:fishfry:
:fishfry:
:fishfry:
:fishfry:

[BuffaloRanger]

The Bills O-line gave up 50+ sacks the last 2 seasons. So say all you want about our athletic lineman finally having a good coach. I think it's it's just wishful thinking. The O-line will be the Achilles Heel of this team.

I hate to say it, but at least the fins went out and TRIED to improve their line.

[The_Philster]

Originally posted by BuffaloRanger
The Bills O-line gave up 50+ sacks the last 2 seasons. So say all you want about our athletic lineman finally having a good coach. I think it's it's just wishful thinking. The O-line will be the Achilles Heel of this team.

I hate to say it, but at least the fins went out and TRIED to improve their line. Villarial is a significant upgrade over Pucillo.

[Kramer]

You know, down here in South Florida I hear the same garbage every year from the Dolfans. "This is our Year" , "We are going to the show", "We have a new awsome offensive line",...yada yada yada. They have been saying this with the same "Jimmy Johnson" roster for as long as I can remember. But remember, their JJ built defense is also getting another year older. And they have a nobody at OC. And Wanstedt is still coaching them. And they still have an issue at QB. David Boston is no guarantee and their OL is going to have initial chemistry issues. So may I humbly advise not to get too concerned with Miami? I'd still be more worried about NE, although a letdown year is also possible.

[Goobylal]

Originally posted by BuffaloRanger
The Bills O-line gave up 50+ sacks the last 2 seasons. So say all you want about our athletic lineman finally having a good coach. I think it's it's just wishful thinking. The O-line will be the Achilles Heel of this team.

I hate to say it, but at least the fins went out and TRIED to improve their line.
As the Philster said, the Bills signed Villarrial to replace the horrible Mike Pucillo at RG. That in and of itself was a huge improvement. And coaching can make a world of difference. It's not like the Bills' O-line lacked talent, except at RG.

[SABURZFAN]

Originally posted by Samphin1
Will Poole, a highly ranked CB and what most say is a steal in the fourth round.


is he out of jail yet?:idunno:

[Samphin1]

Originally posted by SABURZFAN


is he out of jail yet?:idunno:

I don't know, but I think the rest of the AFC East is hoping he isn't. :wave:

[BillsFanInMass]

The Dolphins suck!!!!!!

[RUDEbyallMEANS]

Originally posted by Goobylal
Age at LB'er (specifically Seau and Thomas), Moore's foot problems and Greenwood's averageness should be concerns as well. So too should be LDE. Ogunleye wants to be paid a ton of money and his starting point for a signing bonus is $15M! The problem is, Huizenga basically told him he's a "good" player and not a "great" player (probably true), and that he'll be paid like a "good" player. To me that means holdout for the first 10 games of the season. The Dols can neither afford, nor do they want, to pay Ogunleye even close to what he wants.


The two aging wonders (Zach and Seau) as well as the average LB (Greenwood) were huge contributors to a defense that allowed 3.2 yards per carry. 2nd BEST IN THE NFL.

Seau was excellent for Miami last year. Played all 16 games and blew up run plays consistently. Keeps himself at a high level physically, I expect him to have a good year just like last year.

Miami's run defense was excellent in 2003, so opponents had to pass more on Miami which resulted in Miami playing their nickel defense 60% of the time. Greenwood is not in Miami's nickel defense. That means Greenwood is in on about 40% of Miami's defensive plays. Greenwood really stepped up last year and drew praise from Zach and Seau in the way Greenwood plays his "dirty work" role where he wont get much publicity with tackles and sacks. Greenwood really held his ground and showed he is not just a player going through the motions with pro bowlers around him, he makes plays as well.

When Eddie Moore returns to healthy status, I like Miami's LB situation.

Samphin has responded to your OGUN rant.

[McBFLO]

Originally posted by BillsFanInMass
The Dolphins suck!!!!!!

couldn't have said it better myself...nice post!

[BillsOwnAll]

you picked 8 teams outta what is it 16 in the AFC. lol 50% chance you got the afc SB contender.