Illegal contact enforcement could have huge impact

[Mr. Cynical]

Very interesting article:



ESPN, Thursday, July 15, 2004

Here are some predictions on the impact of the NFL's decision to closely enforce contact or interference penalties after five yards:

Veteran receivers who get quickly into routes -- Marvin Harrison of the Colts and Isaac Bruce of the Rams for example -- should have monster years. The Patriots used a "Cover 4" against the Colts in the AFC Championship game that allowed them to have five defenders against the three-receiver sets on one side of the field. Harrison was double-covered in the slot and grabbed after having contact made in the first five yards.
Harrison is quick into his routes and will get to the five-yard area faster than most. That makes him virtually unstoppable.


Maybe this is just judgmental, but I believe rookie receivers will have more impact in their first seasons. True, most first-round receivers are underclassmen who have trouble adjusting to NFL route-running and getting off the line of scrimmage in their rookie seasons. But these rookies should have more of a chance to get off the line of scrimmage without having a defender in their faces as long as teams play more zone and less man. Because these are big, powerful receivers who are faster than the cornerbacks covering them, they should be able to run their routes better and make more catches early.

Defenses will use more blitzing packages to put pressure on quarterbacks and force quicker throws. Face it, secondaries can't get away what they did, and very few teams have shutdown man-to-man coverage quarterbacks. Expect more zone blitzes. Sacks fell to 1,092 last year, lowest since 1994. Watch the sack numbers increase.

-- John Clayton

ESPN

So, if you buy this then its good news for Evans, BAD news for Drew (as if we needed more). If defenses are going to blitz even more, he is going to get knocked into another zip code every game. As such my prediction is that JP is going to start sooner rather than later due to his mobility, say by game 8.

[BillsFanInMass]

This rule will hurt Ty Law the most i never seen a corner cheat so much Moulds is gonna blow up on him.

[don137]

All DB's love to hold at the line. Miami loves to play man to man and bump big time at the line. They are very good and effective at it. It will really hurt teams like the Pats and Miami. It won't hurt Buffalo as much because they usually play off the mine a lot of time

[HenryRules]

Originally posted by don137
All DB's love to hold at the line. Miami loves to play man to man and bump big time at the line. They are very good and effective at it. It will really hurt teams like the Pats and Miami. It won't hurt Buffalo as much because they usually play off the mine a lot of time

They aren't changing the rules at the LOS - the changes in enforcement are only after the 5-yard barrier. I think its going to have a minimal impact on most top-line players (Law may be physical, but that's most definitely not the only reason he's good). I think it's fortunate for us too that they're not changing the 5-yard rule - Vincent is pretty good at being physical right off the bat and with his speed starting to decline, he'll need to be able to keep that up.

[BillsFanInMass]

This rule will effect Ty Law the most he likes to touch all the way down the field i like this rule.

[Charlieguide]

As Clayton pointed out on ESPN.com, this rule will have a huge effect on the corners that don't accelerate quickly and have to grab to keep up. That means players like Vincent and Law, who are getting older and maybe losing a step, will have to either play off the ball so the WR can't get by them, or bump him and pass him off to the safety five steps later.

As for blitzes, Bledsoe is working specifically on getting the ball out in three seconds, anyway. And if your WR's are fast enough (Lee Evans), they'll have an advantage getting open that much sooner. Timing routes will become even more crucial.

[helmetguy]

The big question is: How will it affect redeivers who are notorious for pushing off a defender? Illegal contact DOES work both ways, doesn't it?

[Marino13Phins]

It will really affect the Patriots, they absolutely mugged WR down the field.

[Stewie]

Re: Illegal contact enforcement could have huge impact

Originally posted by Mr. Cynical


So, if you buy this then its good news for Evans, BAD news for Drew (as if we needed more). If defenses are going to blitz even more, he is going to get knocked into another zip code every game. As such my prediction is that JP is going to start sooner rather than later due to his mobility, say by game 8.

I don't think Drew has a problem getting rid of the ball quickly. His success depends on his recievers running the right routes and his line picking up the blitz. I think he has the ability to hit the three and five step drops and check down to Willis and Travis. And I know he can hit the play-action.

[Jared]

Originally posted by Williams34Phins
It will really affect the Patriots, they absolutely mugged WR down the field.

I'd be more concerned with the Fish straight man bump and run which they are known for. The Patriots use a much larger amount of zone coverage than people realize.

Considering the superbowl where Harrison lined up at CB and Law at SS, for the sole purpose of having Harrison jam a WR then pass him off to Law in zone. 2 of Law's 3 INTs against the Colts were in zone coverage.

Law has excellent instincts and always gets a great break on the ball when it comes his way. THAT is why he's good. He's never been the fastest or most agile corner.

[Marino13Phins]

I agree, but Miami plays right up, if they changed the rules for the LOS I would totally agree. But when the pats man up, they aren't as talented as Surtain is or Madison was in his prime, they hold and grab down the field and make more contact then anyone.

[mybills]

Re: Re: Illegal contact enforcement could have huge impact

Originally posted by paulB
I don't think Drew has a problem getting rid of the ball quickly.

Well, when he opens his eyes, he doesn't. But most of the time he doesn't scope the field.

His tunnel vision is clearly one of his biggest problems.

[pats-were-right]

http://forums.stltoday.com/viewtopic.php?t=171281

Man, the bandwagoners over at the Rams forum are having a field day with this one - they think they're going straight to the super bowl now with their team of finesse pussies.

I'll take Bills fans over Rams fans any day,

[Stewie]

Re: Re: Re: Illegal contact enforcement could have huge impact

Originally posted by mybills
Well, when he opens his eyes, he doesn't. But most of the time he doesn't scope the field.

His tunnel vision is clearly one of his biggest problems.

I think part of Drew's tunnel vision problem is that he wasn't 100% sure of where the receivers were going to be. He had absolutely NO confidence in anyone, especially while Moulds was out. I hope Mularkey will change that by keeping things simple.

[The_Philster]

Originally posted by paulB
I think part of Drew's tunnel vision problem is that he wasn't 100% sure of where the receivers were going to be. He had absolutely NO confidence in anyone, especially while Moulds was out. I hope Mularkey will change that by keeping things simple.

With the receivers running option routes and Drew having to guess where they were, kinda made it hard.