The Bills are a Struggling Team Folks!

[WG]

I created this thread in order to find out why some of you are so optimistic about our chances for success over the last 7 games. As I see it, we've only demonstrated that we can beat teams that are not good as we haven't beaten a good team yet. But this thread isn't about my opinions on the matter. I'd like to generate some serious discussion about the "state of our team" if you will. If you cannot honor this, then please don't post in this thread. Thanks.

We have struggled immensely as of late. I won't go into why I think that is, but the signs of it are out there. The offense is struggling, the D can't stop anyone but the worst offenses, and coaching just coached our last game as if the staff was new the week prior.

Say what you will, but here are the facts:

We only have 5 passing TDs over the last 4 weeks.

Drew's TD production has dropped sharply over the past three games. He was averaging 2.3 TDs/game in the first 6 games which has dropped to only 1 TD/game in the last 3 games. At this rate he'll finish the season w/ only 24 or 25 passing TDs, woefully off the pace of near 50 that he was on at the beginning of the season.

Henry has had only 2 rushing TDs over the past two weeks and both of those came against a weak Detroit D. He had none vs. either Miami or N.E.

Henry has 440 rushing yards in 3 games and 308 in the other 6. That's 147 yards per game in 3 games and only 51 YPG in the other 6 games.

Our defense is giving up more points than any other team in the league and we're way ahead of our pace for points-allowed last season and at this rate will exceed it during our 14th game. And that doesn't take into consideration that the teams that we face upcoming have better offenses than the ones that we have faced.

Since our upcoming schedule more closely resembles the teams that we've faced recently, Miami and N.E. among them again, we will not have the luxury of an easy schedule through the end of the season.

I'm not trying to be negative as many will construe it, but these things have me concerned as they are not exactly hallmarks of a playoff team.

So all you optimists out there, do these things not have you concerned? Because they're not my opinions. Why do you think they are this way? What are your explanations for these facts? And what do you think will cause them to change heading into 3 of 4 road games against the Chiefs, the team w/ the best and most rounded offense this season; the Jets, a team playing much, much better than the Jet team that beat us in week 1; Miame at home, and then the Pats in N.E. after just dishing out a major-league schooling to GW & Co. Followed by S.D. at home and G.B. on the road.

Every one of those teams are likely a playoff team except for the Jets. What are we going to do as a team to help us win those games? Are we expecting Drew to put up 50 attempts in each game w/ 70% of his completions going to Moulds and Price for us to win those games? What?

How are we going to stop Holmes, Martin, Williams, Smith (again), Tomlinson, and Green from having 150 or more yards apiece?

What about the passing game that most of those teams have; how are we going to stop those?

Can we score more points than our D allows each week? Where is the evidence for that as of late?

Does the level of competition of teams that we've faced vs. that which we have yet to face factor into the analysis anywhere?

Just curious as to why so many people seem to think that we can go 5-2 or better, which is what it's gonna take to make the playoffs, against the lineup that we face. You know my views, now let's hear some of yours.

And please, no comments as to how I'm not a fan or how I suck. Only people seriously interested in discussing the Bills in a civilized fashion please post! Thanks.

[Dozerdog]

Record over the last 4 weeks

3-1

[Dozerdog]

Best rushing performances in Bills games this season, both teams

1) Henry- 159 vs Texans....Bills win
2) Henry- 149 vs Jets..........Bills win
3)Henry 138 vs Miami...........Bills win
4)A Smith , Pats-111............loss
5)Portis, Den- 103..............loss
6) Moe Williams, Vikes- 102..........Bills win
7) R Williams, Mia- 97.....................Bills win
8)Garner, Raiders-96................loss

The only guy who has APPROACHED the 150 yard mark in games this season has been Henry, a guy you had little faith in for most the season.

Yes our D sucks. But listen, chicken little, if you want to yell the sky is falling, to the tune of 150 yard rushing performances each week, can ya do it in 150 words or less?

In the games above we lost, it was our D's inability to stop the PASS and turnovers that cost us.

[WG]

Average of less then 16 PPG over the last 3 weeks!

That ain't too good for a team who's strength is their offense, eh!

This just in, but playing G.B., S.D., K.C., Miami, N.E. again after total embarassment, is gonna be a tad bit tougher than playing the Vikes, Miami w/o half their offense, Detroit, Houston, Chicago, and Oakland who is very, very average just as I predicted they would end up when they were 4-0.

;)

[Typ0]

Many teams struggle at some point in the season. We won 3 in a row and that is not easy to do I don't care what teams you are playing. One game does not a struggle make by the way, we won the previous week. Again you are over-reacting. We could turn that routing into some energy in the coming weeks and pull out some tough wins. This team has the leadership, the heart and some smarts. There are some areas where the talent is a bit lacking but few teams enjoy an all around strong depth chart in todays world. It's 90% mental and there are some veteran's on this team that really know where to focus their energies. We really need GW to step up and not screw up games that's the most important thing right now.

[Typ0]

WYS have you ever watched a whole NFL season before? If you really were firmly rooted in reality as you speak you would know talking about how good or bad a team who is on the edge is in week 10 is ludicrous. We're a solid month away from telling how good teams like Buffalo,NE,Miami,JETS,SD,KC,OAKLAND,GIants,WASH,ATL,ARI are.

SF,TB,NO,PHILLY,GB and Denver are clearly solid teams at this point but even one or two of them can fall off and miss the playoffs (probably will happen).

[Judge]

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Average of less then 16 PPG over the last 3 weeks!

That ain't too good for a team who's strength is their offense, eh!

This just in, but playing G.B., S.D., K.C., Miami, N.E. again after total embarassment, is gonna be a tad bit tougher than playing the Vikes, Miami w/o half their offense, Detroit, Houston, Chicago, and Oakland who is very, very average just as I predicted they would end up when they were 4-0.

;)

Very silly post-

The Bills were held to under 23 points for the first time all year Sunday. To go 8 straight games scoring 23 or more points per game is quite an achievement.

Before the season started, we were all terrified of the Bills' first half of the season. Well, they went 5-3 over what was supposed to be a very difficult gauntlet. Pretty damn impressive if you ask me.

Every team in the NFL is average. Parity is at the highest level I've ever seen. The difference between Green Bay and Cincinnati is not that great, and there are few if any teams that you can argue are truly better than anyone else.

In this era of the NFL, I'll take my chances on succeeding with a team like the Bills who have a clear advantage over most if not the entire NFL at a critical position- QB.

[Ebenezer]

It's the NFL. Almost any team can win on any given Sunday. The whole league is mediocre and this team is just above that. Because of realignment they can still win 10 and not make the playoffs so the argument about not making playoffs doesn't mean they won't have a successful season.

[WG]

"...was supposed to be a very difficult gauntlet. "

Yeah, "supposed to be" yet wasn't as several of the teams that were supposed to be good weren't. Oakland is not good. The Bears stink to high heaven. The Jets didn't have healthy Martin and struggled early on. Miami didn't even give us their starting unit. The only two decent teams we've played, and this is a fact, not just something I'm throwing out there have been Denver and N.E. and we lost to both. Both teams had absolutley no difficulty moving the ball on us. We also lost both games.

That's not my opinion, it's the facts. I wasn't going to respond in this thread, but instead of specific analysis about the Bills, I see that this thread has turned to very high-level generalizations and indictments of reality. I didn't start it as a referendum on my opinions, yet that's what it has turned into apparently. :scratch:

Some good points nonetheless. Typ0, yes, you are correct that teams turn around halfway thru a season. Usually the reason for such a turnaround is one of and/or two things. A change in schedule or injuries. Oakland started off w/ a bang against 4 teams that are not good and only Pittsburgh of which will make the playoffs. I took heat then for suggesting that the Raiders would only go .500 from then on out while fellow Bills fans insisted that the Raiders were among the league's elite.

Is that what you are talking about Typ0? The reason why they skidded is b/c, and it's very simple, b/c they stopped playing scrub teams and started to play tougher playoff-bound teams. Just like we are doing now. The only teams that will make the playoffs that we've played are Miami, Denver, N.E., and Oakland. We're 1-3 in those games w/ a lucky victory over Miami w/ a pathetic offensive display of under 300 net yards offensively yielding a paltry 16 points against what isn't even close to a top-10 defense this season.

I see no reason in there to think that amidst our current slump, that we're going to all-of-a-sudden start playing completely oppositely of the way we have. Anyway, to get back to the point, it's those types of things that lead to streaks changing and the like. It's very unusual for teams to all-of-a-sudden start playing poorly against similar competition.

So unless we are expecting a barrage of injuries to our opponents, I wouldn't hold my breath that we don't play the tougher teams any differently than we have. And that's not well at all. Certainly our schedule takes one of those "unfavorable bounces."

I was hoping to get some sort of analysis out of somebody. Apparently that's too tall an order! ;) Silly me! I guess "head-in-the-sand" politics and denial in the interests of holding out hope against hope is the best I can hope for, eh. :D

[WG]

"In the games above we lost, it was our D's inability to stop the PASS and turnovers that cost us."

That's funny, b/c if you'd have asked me, I'd have told you that "stopping" the pass wasn't the issue w/ our D nor turnovers. Since most of N.E.'s passing yardage was well after-the-catch, I'd say it was poor reads, tackling, and pursuit. Also, since we only put up 7, I'd also say that offense was an issue. Same in the Miami game when we only put up 16.

16 won't be enough to win any game including the Cincy game and for anyone holding out hope that the D gets another TD this season, I wouldn't put a lot of green on it.

We are currently averaging only 27.6 PPG and that appears to be dropping rapidly from the 33 that it was after the first 4 games. It is only 23 PPG over our last 5. Unfortunately, even that with our D will not be enough to win 5 of 7 games. I'd say 2, maybe 3 in a good streak we can hold the teams that we play under 30.

You can bet that unless Gilbride starts running the ball, which he hasn't in 2/3 of our games, that we'll go down in most of those games as well, and unless Drew is flawless, there may be some TOs that go against us as well.

Anyway, I was simply trying to get some analysis and reasons as to the optimism. Serious ones. Not simply we're 5-4 blah, blah, blah. I guess that was too much. ;)

[Novacane]

Is it Nov 17th yet!

[don137]

I don't think Buffalo is a championship caliber team yet but it may be a playoff team. My belief is not so much that the Bills are a dominant team in all three phases because they are not dominant defensively or on ST. The thing that makes me believe we possibly could be a playoff team is that Miami is in a lot of trouble and I am not sold on NE yet and we have as good as shot as any of them to win the division. If the Bills play as bad defensiely as they did Sunday then they will not win the division but I don't think they as bad as they showed last week.

[Billsbabee]

FWIW- and maybe I am stating the too blatantly obvious here, but...

Our defense needs serious help. They have cost us more IMO than any other part/player on our team. We must draft D in 2003.

We still have WAY too many penalties each week. And stupid ones many times!

The running game with T Henry needs to be implemented more.

Our O line played very poorly against NE....or should that be pourously? They were getting beat way too much and Drew was getting hit too much.

The play calling needs improvement. It has been questionable at times and totally stupid other times. Example...in the NE game, T henry played well at the beginning of the game and was effective, then he was out of our game as if he was injured in the 2nd 1/2, why??

[colin]

Wys, the Chicken "Little" Wing king.

[WG]

Don't forget though, the Pats have probably the easiest schedule of any team remaining over the last 8 weeks. If they only play to half of what they played on Sunday, they'll be 6-2 over that stretch and I can see them winning 7 or possibly all 8 too. In any case, they'll win at least 5 and that'll be 9. I'd say that we'll be lucky to hit .500 against the teams that we play. Assuming that we lose to G.B. and N.E., both road games, that means we'd have to be perfect after that. No wild card will be forthcoming at 9-7.

[LtBillsFan66]

The Bills Had One Bad Game Folks!

[Novacane]

Originally posted by Wys Guy
No wild card will be forthcoming at 9-7.


I would not say that yet. Raiders are falling fast and have tough schedule. Chargers have a VERY tough schedule. I am not sold on them . I could see them easily going only 2-6 the rest of the way.

2 weeks ago everyone thought both WC's were definatlely comming out of the west. I don't think that anymore. 9-7 may just do it.

Aside from Denver............all the best teams in the league are in the NFC IMO.

[WG]

Don't underrate S.D. this year. As much as I hate them now, they're tough and Tomlinson is one of the biggest parts of their success. Brees is very, very adequate, and their D is killer.

[Novacane]

Raiders schedule the rest of the way:

Nov 11 @Denver 9:00pm
Nov 17 New England 8:30pm
Nov 24 @Arizona 4:05pm
Dec 2 N.Y. Jets 9:00pm
Dec 8 @San Diego 4:15pm
Dec 15 @Miami 1:00pm
Dec 22 Denver 4:15pm
Dec 28 Kansas City
Easily could be 4-4 rest of the way


Chargers the rest of the way:

Nov 10 @St. Louis 1:00pm
Nov 17 San Francisco 4:05pm
Nov 24 @Miami 1:00pm
Dec 1 Denver 4:05pm
Dec 8 Oakland 4:15pm
Dec 15 @Buffalo 1:00pm
Dec 22 @Kansas City 1:00pm
Dec 29 Seattle


Heck.......you could make a case for them going 0-8. I don't think they will but they are going to have a real struggle to win 4 of those.

9-7 is still a real possibility for a Wild card spot

[Novacane]

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Don't underrate S.D. this year. As much as I hate them now, they're tough and Tomlinson is one of the biggest parts of their success. Brees is very, very adequate, and their D is killer.


Until I see it I don't believe they are ready for prime time.

The best they do is 10-6 and that is really going to be tough for them. Very tough

[Novacane]

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Don't underrate S.D. this year. .......................and their D is killer.


They did not look to killer giving up 400+ yards to the Jets last week.

They have had a couple impressive wins against NE, and Oak but Oak is really sucking now so maybe that was not such an impressive win. Than they beat cinci, houston, and Arz. Nothing to brag about.

They can prove me wrong starting this week. I think the Rams beat them by at least 14.