Ingtar33
09-19-2004, 11:13 AM
Ouch! That is the word that can sum up my week. I've been suffering from a sore knee and a wrenched back all week, which, please take my apologies, played into the lateness of this pregame primer. Ouch is also the only word that can describe last week's terrible heartbreaking lose to the Jags. It further hurts that this amateur prognosticator predicted a blowout win against what appeared to be an overmatched Jaguars team. I suppose this week will go a long way toward proving to us all, as to whether the Bills are a good team that lost to a good Jags team that got lucky or the Bills are a bad team that just got beat. Week 2 sees the Bills playing the Oakland Raiders in Oakland's home opener. Oakland is always a tough play to play, so if the Bills can pull out a win we'll have a pretty good idea what week one's lose meant. Now, on to the preview.
When the Bills have the Ball
The Bills offence showed us some promising signs last week. The first and most obvious is that except for one single play call (3 and goal from the 1), I would have probably been proud to have called that football game, something i couldn't say for the last 3 years. If we threw an incompletion on first we were running on second. Bledsoe was accurate, and got the ball off in a hurry. The O-line was solid but not spectacular, after watching the o-line in preseason ill call that acceptable. Now, this offensive play can be a bit deceptive. The Jags don't get pressure on the QB. We'll have to see in the coming weeks if the Bills O-line really is as solid as they looked.
On to the Bills and Oakland. The Raider's sport a revamped defense which should be formidable all year long. They have the twin towers of Washington and Sapp in the middle of their defense. The Raider's are playing a 3-4 look, with Sapp on the DE. This Defense will give the Bills o-line one of its toughest tests all season long. On the bright side, the Raider's LB corps is banged up, with their star MLB Napoleon Harris likely unable to go this week. The Raiders also struggled to get pressure any real pressure on Tommy Maddox, one of the most stackable QBs outside of Drew Bledsoe in the league. The Bills will get good match-ups all game in the passing attack, as the raiders are likely to rely on a man-to-man coverage with a one deep zone look for most of the game. Buchanon, Buchanan, Grant and Woodson make up a good and opportunistic secondary.
Match up to Watch: Eric Moulds vs. Philip Buchanon, as the Raiders will leave Buchanon on an island all game vs. Eric Moulds. This is a match-up Moulds can and should win often, as Buchanon, while an opportunistic corner, plays sloppy and loose... much like Nate Clements.
Small Tip: The Bills offence resembled the pats offence of the mid 90's to such an extent I thought I was watching a replay of a pats game from 95. Look for the Bills to continue to build upon the play action pass, and try to work Campbell into the offence more.
Prediction: The crowd noise, the good defense will make moving the ball a choir all day, as the o-line will commit a lot of false starts and holding penalties killing drives all day.
When the Raider's have the Ball
The Raiders will have their no.1 pick Robert Gallery suiting up as starting Left Tackle today, in his first NFL start. Gallery is a monster of a specimen, perhaps the best o-lineman to come out of the draft in a decade, and will anchor their left side for years to come. Lucky for us, he's a rookie, entering his first NFL start after missing some time in preseason to an injury, so he will be more of a hindrance than a help this week. Look for Schobel to bring a lot of pressure this week. The Raider's offence has changed a bit this off-season. It now focuses on more of a down field passing game, and a larger dedication to the run. Look for the Raiders to continue to pound Tyrone Wheatley at us all game as long as the game stays close. Gannon's lost a few steps, and is no-longer the running threat he once was, his arm also is erratic like older QBs are want to become, turning him into a streaky passer. It doesn't help that his WRs are slow, though Jerry Porter remains a weapon. The Bills will try to get a lot of pressure, and attempt to make Gannon's life miserable, forcing mister perfectionist into some turnovers like the Steelers did last week. Don't be mislead by the Raider's success through the air last week. They were down a lot and had to go to straight passing attack, furthermore the Steelers have a terrible secondary.
Match-up to Watch: I think in the end it will come down to how well the Bills secondary can shut down the Raider's passing game. If they can pull another game like Jacksonville out of their hat (2ints, 150yards) , then the Bills will have a strong chance to steal this game. So watch for how Vincent and Rice work out.
Small Tip: The Raider's still like to spread the field with 4 WRs, and will throw a lot of bunch formations at us. The Bills have had problems with bunch formations for a while, and no-one runs them like the Raiders.
Prediction: The Raiders will have some success moving the ball against the Bills, and will have good field position to work with all game. Look for Wheatley to rack up 60-80 yards, though those 60-80 yards will be all that will be needed to give Gannon a chance in the passing game.
Intangibles and Conclusions:
The Bills Special teams... namely their kicking game, lost them a game last week. Simply put, if you don't have a good kicker you're going to loose games you shouldn't, and games you should win by a lot will turn into squeakers. We've got one of the best Punters in the league, and he'll be crucial to the field position battle. If we can't win that battle we won't win the game... as field position is more important than anything except turnovers on the road. I'd love to come out and say the Bills will win this week, but I just don't see it. Its a difficult west coast trip, into a brutal environment to play in, the Raider's home opener, and the Bills lost a heartbreaker last week. Throw in the fact the Raider's aren't a bad team, and i think we're looking at the very real possibility of being 0-3. Vegas has the Raiders favored by 3.5. Last week made my year record 0-1 for both winners and spread prediction, that hurts since i was heading for a win in both going into that last pass. I'll take the Raiders but not the points this week. Oakland 17 - Bills 14
When the Bills have the Ball
The Bills offence showed us some promising signs last week. The first and most obvious is that except for one single play call (3 and goal from the 1), I would have probably been proud to have called that football game, something i couldn't say for the last 3 years. If we threw an incompletion on first we were running on second. Bledsoe was accurate, and got the ball off in a hurry. The O-line was solid but not spectacular, after watching the o-line in preseason ill call that acceptable. Now, this offensive play can be a bit deceptive. The Jags don't get pressure on the QB. We'll have to see in the coming weeks if the Bills O-line really is as solid as they looked.
On to the Bills and Oakland. The Raider's sport a revamped defense which should be formidable all year long. They have the twin towers of Washington and Sapp in the middle of their defense. The Raider's are playing a 3-4 look, with Sapp on the DE. This Defense will give the Bills o-line one of its toughest tests all season long. On the bright side, the Raider's LB corps is banged up, with their star MLB Napoleon Harris likely unable to go this week. The Raiders also struggled to get pressure any real pressure on Tommy Maddox, one of the most stackable QBs outside of Drew Bledsoe in the league. The Bills will get good match-ups all game in the passing attack, as the raiders are likely to rely on a man-to-man coverage with a one deep zone look for most of the game. Buchanon, Buchanan, Grant and Woodson make up a good and opportunistic secondary.
Match up to Watch: Eric Moulds vs. Philip Buchanon, as the Raiders will leave Buchanon on an island all game vs. Eric Moulds. This is a match-up Moulds can and should win often, as Buchanon, while an opportunistic corner, plays sloppy and loose... much like Nate Clements.
Small Tip: The Bills offence resembled the pats offence of the mid 90's to such an extent I thought I was watching a replay of a pats game from 95. Look for the Bills to continue to build upon the play action pass, and try to work Campbell into the offence more.
Prediction: The crowd noise, the good defense will make moving the ball a choir all day, as the o-line will commit a lot of false starts and holding penalties killing drives all day.
When the Raider's have the Ball
The Raiders will have their no.1 pick Robert Gallery suiting up as starting Left Tackle today, in his first NFL start. Gallery is a monster of a specimen, perhaps the best o-lineman to come out of the draft in a decade, and will anchor their left side for years to come. Lucky for us, he's a rookie, entering his first NFL start after missing some time in preseason to an injury, so he will be more of a hindrance than a help this week. Look for Schobel to bring a lot of pressure this week. The Raider's offence has changed a bit this off-season. It now focuses on more of a down field passing game, and a larger dedication to the run. Look for the Raiders to continue to pound Tyrone Wheatley at us all game as long as the game stays close. Gannon's lost a few steps, and is no-longer the running threat he once was, his arm also is erratic like older QBs are want to become, turning him into a streaky passer. It doesn't help that his WRs are slow, though Jerry Porter remains a weapon. The Bills will try to get a lot of pressure, and attempt to make Gannon's life miserable, forcing mister perfectionist into some turnovers like the Steelers did last week. Don't be mislead by the Raider's success through the air last week. They were down a lot and had to go to straight passing attack, furthermore the Steelers have a terrible secondary.
Match-up to Watch: I think in the end it will come down to how well the Bills secondary can shut down the Raider's passing game. If they can pull another game like Jacksonville out of their hat (2ints, 150yards) , then the Bills will have a strong chance to steal this game. So watch for how Vincent and Rice work out.
Small Tip: The Raider's still like to spread the field with 4 WRs, and will throw a lot of bunch formations at us. The Bills have had problems with bunch formations for a while, and no-one runs them like the Raiders.
Prediction: The Raiders will have some success moving the ball against the Bills, and will have good field position to work with all game. Look for Wheatley to rack up 60-80 yards, though those 60-80 yards will be all that will be needed to give Gannon a chance in the passing game.
Intangibles and Conclusions:
The Bills Special teams... namely their kicking game, lost them a game last week. Simply put, if you don't have a good kicker you're going to loose games you shouldn't, and games you should win by a lot will turn into squeakers. We've got one of the best Punters in the league, and he'll be crucial to the field position battle. If we can't win that battle we won't win the game... as field position is more important than anything except turnovers on the road. I'd love to come out and say the Bills will win this week, but I just don't see it. Its a difficult west coast trip, into a brutal environment to play in, the Raider's home opener, and the Bills lost a heartbreaker last week. Throw in the fact the Raider's aren't a bad team, and i think we're looking at the very real possibility of being 0-3. Vegas has the Raiders favored by 3.5. Last week made my year record 0-1 for both winners and spread prediction, that hurts since i was heading for a win in both going into that last pass. I'll take the Raiders but not the points this week. Oakland 17 - Bills 14