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Bills vs Chiefs: pregame analysis
5-4, tied for first in the AFC East, with our destiny in our hands. Considering that the Bills were 2 games out of first when the clock struck zero on the disastrous Pats game two weeks ago, I think the Bills should consider this a successful bye week. Furthermore the Bills find themselves just one game away from owning the best record in the AFC (Broncos and Chargers, are both 6-3). It sure is a good time to be a Bills fan, certainly better than it was last year (if you can remember last year we were 1-8 after 9 weeks). The Bills have proved that they can win on the road, and will have to continue their road success this week against the tough KC Chiefs if they want to seriously challenge for a playoff spot this year.
This weekly review will follow the structure of the previous reviews, with a look at the match-ups, and a prediction on the score. For the gamblers, you'll note that I'm in the midst of a two game slide predicting the point spread winner as my record is now an uninspired 4-5. However, the Pats helped me redeem myself for my pathetic record against the spread, as they failed to kick a meaningless FG near the end of the game, then stopped the Bills from scoring on their equally meaningless end of the game drive, preserving my under prediction and giving me a 7-2 record vs the Over-Under. Those Bills fans simply interested in my predictive powers with regard to game winners will be satisfied to know that I've rarely lead you wrong. I sport a stellar 7-2 record in picking the winners of these contests.
When the Bills have the ball and are...
Running: Henry and company hit a bit of a snag last time out against the Pats, as Ted Johnson stopped the Bills twice in third and short early in the game. It was those stops which would lead to the Bills abandoning the running game, and perhaps even to Williams never seriously considering going for it on 4th and 2 in the third quarter. The bad short yardage performance of the Bills O-line has been sort of common this year, and a slightly troubling trend. This week however, the Bills should be able to move the ball against the Chiefs porous defense. This is a D which has been totally unable to slow down most rushing attacks, and in most respects is about as bad in stopping everything as is the Bills poor D. Travis Henry should have a good day (as long as the Bills don't fall too far behind), as the Chiefs have a very poor defensive front seven.
Passing: The Bills passing attack has been limited in recent weeks by some exceedingly conservative defensive schemes. The Pats took advantage of the Bills young front five by setting up a confusing "overload" blitz scheme (a blitz scheme the Bills sort of neutralized by switching to a zone blocking scheme in the second half), which was designed to maximize pressure on Bledsoe while giving him a 4 deep, 7 DB look, which featured a combo man-zone double coverage on Moulds and Price. The Lions and Dolphins both were able to slow the Bills down with a standard 2 deep or 3 deep zone and very little blitzing. On the bright side the Chiefs D is the NFL's worst pass D. And as a whole the D gives up more than 400y a game. While the Chiefs have been able to get the QB, and DE Eric Hicks has racked up 5 sacks, the Chiefs DBs have stuggled, as there is little to no depth in the Chiefs secondary, and the Chiefs may possess the worst starting nickel back and safeties in the league. Combined with the fact the Chiefs D has been giving up a nearly 50% 3rd down conversion rate, the Bills passing attack and O in general should have a tremendous day.
When the Chiefs have the ball and are...
Running: After two straight weeks of improvement, the Bills porous run D raised its ugly head again two weeks ago against the Pats. The same problems which plagued the Bills in the first few weeks plagued them last week, as they had huge problems tackling, and stopping the run out of their nickel D. Furthermore, and most troubling, it appeared the Bills D just plain quit on he team after the Pats made the score 24-7. The Chiefs will present the Bills with their most formidable challenge, as they will bring the best RB in the league to play next Sunday (P.Holmes). Holmes is a slashing, fast runner with great vision and a little bit of power. While the Bills have been able to close down power backs, thus far they have had little to no success against fast ones (as our OLB have been slow and quite poor in containment). Holmes has been stopped a few times, but that was by Ds who played 8 men in the box to force the Chiefs to pass (even on passing downs). Thus far J.Grey has not shown the courage needed to stack the box like that against anyone. If he doesn't stop Holmes, this will be a very long day for Bills fans.
Passing: The Bills secondary will get a lift with the return of A.Winfield this week. While Watson did acquit himself nicely as Winfield's replacement, he still showed a tendency to take dumb penalties and miss tackles. Last game, the Bills secondary took a step back; as the Pats shredded them with the screen pass (of Brady's 22 completions 19 were within 2 yards of the line of scrimmage). The Chiefs passing O relies entirely upon Holmes and TE Tony Gonzales. Both have acquired more than 40 catches, and considering their top two WR's combined don't have 40 catches, you can see how that O operates. The key to their passing game is the play action pass. Last week their passing attack was stopped because the 49ers tasked one man to Gonzales, regardless of whether it was a run or pass. The result was Gonzalas was held to just 1 catch for 8 yards. The key will be if the Bills have fixed their tackling and schematic problems because you can bet that the Chiefs will try to torch them with screens like the Pats did.
Conclusion: The Bills have to go into one of the toughest and loudest venues in he NFL and shut down the leagues best offense. Furthermore they need this win to keep pace in the AFC East, as only 7 games remain. With the Bills coming off the bye, and in a hostile environment, with a D which has yet to prove it can stop any but the worst of NFL offenses it is natural for my gut to tell me the Bills will drop this one. This is the game which will prove if the Bills are contenders or pretenders as the schedule just gets tougher from this point on. I think they've got enough in them to remain in contention for another week, Bills win 38-31
This weekly review will follow the structure of the previous reviews, with a look at the match-ups, and a prediction on the score. For the gamblers, you'll note that I'm in the midst of a two game slide predicting the point spread winner as my record is now an uninspired 4-5. However, the Pats helped me redeem myself for my pathetic record against the spread, as they failed to kick a meaningless FG near the end of the game, then stopped the Bills from scoring on their equally meaningless end of the game drive, preserving my under prediction and giving me a 7-2 record vs the Over-Under. Those Bills fans simply interested in my predictive powers with regard to game winners will be satisfied to know that I've rarely lead you wrong. I sport a stellar 7-2 record in picking the winners of these contests.
When the Bills have the ball and are...
Running: Henry and company hit a bit of a snag last time out against the Pats, as Ted Johnson stopped the Bills twice in third and short early in the game. It was those stops which would lead to the Bills abandoning the running game, and perhaps even to Williams never seriously considering going for it on 4th and 2 in the third quarter. The bad short yardage performance of the Bills O-line has been sort of common this year, and a slightly troubling trend. This week however, the Bills should be able to move the ball against the Chiefs porous defense. This is a D which has been totally unable to slow down most rushing attacks, and in most respects is about as bad in stopping everything as is the Bills poor D. Travis Henry should have a good day (as long as the Bills don't fall too far behind), as the Chiefs have a very poor defensive front seven.
Passing: The Bills passing attack has been limited in recent weeks by some exceedingly conservative defensive schemes. The Pats took advantage of the Bills young front five by setting up a confusing "overload" blitz scheme (a blitz scheme the Bills sort of neutralized by switching to a zone blocking scheme in the second half), which was designed to maximize pressure on Bledsoe while giving him a 4 deep, 7 DB look, which featured a combo man-zone double coverage on Moulds and Price. The Lions and Dolphins both were able to slow the Bills down with a standard 2 deep or 3 deep zone and very little blitzing. On the bright side the Chiefs D is the NFL's worst pass D. And as a whole the D gives up more than 400y a game. While the Chiefs have been able to get the QB, and DE Eric Hicks has racked up 5 sacks, the Chiefs DBs have stuggled, as there is little to no depth in the Chiefs secondary, and the Chiefs may possess the worst starting nickel back and safeties in the league. Combined with the fact the Chiefs D has been giving up a nearly 50% 3rd down conversion rate, the Bills passing attack and O in general should have a tremendous day.
When the Chiefs have the ball and are...
Running: After two straight weeks of improvement, the Bills porous run D raised its ugly head again two weeks ago against the Pats. The same problems which plagued the Bills in the first few weeks plagued them last week, as they had huge problems tackling, and stopping the run out of their nickel D. Furthermore, and most troubling, it appeared the Bills D just plain quit on he team after the Pats made the score 24-7. The Chiefs will present the Bills with their most formidable challenge, as they will bring the best RB in the league to play next Sunday (P.Holmes). Holmes is a slashing, fast runner with great vision and a little bit of power. While the Bills have been able to close down power backs, thus far they have had little to no success against fast ones (as our OLB have been slow and quite poor in containment). Holmes has been stopped a few times, but that was by Ds who played 8 men in the box to force the Chiefs to pass (even on passing downs). Thus far J.Grey has not shown the courage needed to stack the box like that against anyone. If he doesn't stop Holmes, this will be a very long day for Bills fans.
Passing: The Bills secondary will get a lift with the return of A.Winfield this week. While Watson did acquit himself nicely as Winfield's replacement, he still showed a tendency to take dumb penalties and miss tackles. Last game, the Bills secondary took a step back; as the Pats shredded them with the screen pass (of Brady's 22 completions 19 were within 2 yards of the line of scrimmage). The Chiefs passing O relies entirely upon Holmes and TE Tony Gonzales. Both have acquired more than 40 catches, and considering their top two WR's combined don't have 40 catches, you can see how that O operates. The key to their passing game is the play action pass. Last week their passing attack was stopped because the 49ers tasked one man to Gonzales, regardless of whether it was a run or pass. The result was Gonzalas was held to just 1 catch for 8 yards. The key will be if the Bills have fixed their tackling and schematic problems because you can bet that the Chiefs will try to torch them with screens like the Pats did.
Conclusion: The Bills have to go into one of the toughest and loudest venues in he NFL and shut down the leagues best offense. Furthermore they need this win to keep pace in the AFC East, as only 7 games remain. With the Bills coming off the bye, and in a hostile environment, with a D which has yet to prove it can stop any but the worst of NFL offenses it is natural for my gut to tell me the Bills will drop this one. This is the game which will prove if the Bills are contenders or pretenders as the schedule just gets tougher from this point on. I think they've got enough in them to remain in contention for another week, Bills win 38-31
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