Injury update: Pats without both starting CB...

[Ickybaluky]

Injuries of Note for the Patriots:

Both Ty Law and Tyrone Poole are listed as "out" for this week's game against the Bills. They definitely won't be participating.

Asante Samuel, who left the Rams game on the 2nd defensive snap, is listed as probable. The starting CB are likely to be Samuel (average size, good quickness and coverage skills, good ball-hawker, weak hands) and Randall Gay (who has played pretty well, but has been beaten occasionally-see the Pittsburgh game). Earthland Moreland and possibly Troy Brown will see duty is sub situations, although Brown may only play there if there is an injury. Eugene Wilson will move into coverage in nickel, with either S Dexter Reid or LB Don Davis playing deep.

WR Deion Branch has been upgraded to "questionable" this week. My best guess is he is out another week. He makes a huge difference, as he is the Pats best WR. The passing game hasn't been as good since week 2, because of Branch's absence. Both Branch and WR David Givens are vastly underrated, both are very good players.

LB Matt Chatham (top ST performer) is also questionable, but he wouldn't be missed much if he misses the game.

[BAM]

Do you think the Bills stand a chance, NE39?

What's your prediction?

[Drive 4 Five]

Do you think the Bills stand a chance, NE39?

What's your prediction?

Oh, I'll be curious to hear this one....

[TigerJ]

It must be pretty hard to ask Brown to play CB when Branch isn't playing. It means he's got to spend some time going both ways, especially if the Patriots try to use some empty backfield formations.

[Hemlepp53]

I think we have this game as long as we ROCK AND ROLL like LAST Week....

[casdhf]

While I would like to say we beat the Pats at full stregnth, I hope the injuries keep coming.

[Bills 4 life]

Brady is hurt too, but will play. Don't forget bout NE's running game too. Dillon has been out as well.

[mybills]

Dillon played last week, and should play this week as well. Unless he was hurt again.

[justasportsfan]

Injuries have never benn an issue w/ Belichick. He makes his reserves play like probowlers or a cohessive unit. There's always a first time though.

Now if the refs were injured or have the wind come out of their @ss instead of their mouths everytime they blow the whistle on the opponents of the Pats, that would be a different thing.

[Ickybaluky]

Do you think the Bills stand a chance, NE39?

What's your prediction?

Sure, they stand a chance. I think it is a tall order to beat the Pats in NE, but it isn't like it would be a surprise if it happened.

The key for the Bills will be to not beat themselves, something they have done well in their last 2 games. They need top play mistake-free, first and foremost.

Offensively, I think the Bills need to have nice balance. Obviously, they are going to run the football as that is their identity. However, they need to mix in the pass and take some shots downfield. The Patriots are very vulnerable right now in the secondary, with their starting CB being Asante Samuel (a pretty good player, but not Ty Law) and Randall Gay (and undrafted FA who has done a pretty good job so far). IMO, you need to expose that.

Last week the Pats had a good pass rush, which helped make up for holes in the secondary. There were times when guys were open, but Bulger didn't have time to get them the ball. If you can get them blocked there will be plays to be made in the passing game.

The Pats rushing defense hasn't been as bad as people think. They have had problems at times, but have been able to adjust and have been getting better as the year progressed. They were awful in the Pittsburgh game, but that was one of those games that happen from time to time (like the opener in Buffalo in 2003).

Defensively, the Bills should try to stuff Dillon and force NE off the field on 3rd down. I don't think they should blitz Brady as much as last time, as Brady will make a play more often than you can get to him. Brady eats up the blitz. If you stuff Dillon on early downs and force 3rd-and-long situations, drop a bunch of guys into coverage and rush 3 or 4. Force Brady to take the underneath stuff and then tackle well. That will get the Pats off the field.

ST-wise, I don't think the Pats will repeat their performance from the first game. That was the worst ST performance in Belichick's tenure and he made several changes as a result. Je'Rod Cherry, a ST specialist who only technically is listed as a S, was re-signed. More starters were moved to ST play (Rodney Harrison, Eugene Wilson and Mike Vrabel all play on the kickoff coverage team, while Vrabel, Bruschi and Ty Warren play on the kick return team). The Pats have been more consistent on ST since that game.

Prediction? I don't usually make predictions. I think the Pats are very tough at home while the Bills haven't been a great road team, so I'm pretty confident. If the Pats get an early lead they can play their game, and should win. If the Bills get ahead early then I could see them winning.

Dillon will be the key. He has been the Pats first-half MVP on offense, on a pace for 1,500 yards (despite missing a game). He is averaging 107 yards/game and 4.9 yards/carry. He really hasn't been shut down all year, as he has averaged over 4 yards/carry in every game (including a 19 rush-79 yard - 4.2 yds/rush - 1 TD performance in Buffalo). For all the talk here about McGahee, Dillon has been on a better run, and carrying the Pats at the same time.