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View Full Version : I do not think Bills will make playoffs



G. Host
11-23-2004, 11:39 PM
Coach Mularkey will probably tell his players that their fate is in their hands; they have gone through the "tough" portion of the schedule and if they win out they can 'steal" a wild card slot. I do not think he will do a "Wade" and declare playoffs out until mathematically out.

I tend to think everything is possible so I tinkered with upcoming schedule assuming that assumption is correct. Two teams are SOLIDLY in AFC playoffs Pittsburgh and New England (while it is true either could do a collapse like the Redsucks who were winning all games until Buffalo beat them a couple of years ago and then collapsed I do not think it is worth investigating) and six others have winning records. If Bills have ANY chance of getting into playoffs even with 7 game winning streak they need to have better records than three of them or beat them in tie breakers and the tie breakers are very odd for multiple teams.

We lost to Baltimore and Jacksonville - that well especially hamper playoff chances but IMO both teams are weak and can be beaten by even weaker teams with right game plan.

We split games with NJ Jets and they are wounded.

We have not played Indy, Denver or SD.

I put together a matrix of remaining games like I do almost every year
http://members.cox.net/billswatch/schedules.html

It is color coded by what is happening with each of the 7 teams one row - Bills IF they won out <b> hypothetically </b> they would have a chance for Baltimore, Jets and Jacksonville have to play "SOLID" teams at least once (too bad they do not play Eagles or Falcons in NFC) and they each have other serious competition. The Bills do not have that other than Pittsburgh and if they <b> hypothetically </b> won out they would have beaten their toughest opponent.

Indy plays Baltimore, San Diego and Denver and I think is they are likely the AFC South champion so a strong finish aid will the Bills getting into the playoffs.

Tennessee and Houston have enough strengths to be spoilers.
Minnesota, Green Bay and St Louis at home are strong enough to beat Jacksonville and Jets.

Those marked in my chart are Pink require a team to be a spoiler who is not playing well so I think they are unlikely to occur so I conclude that Denver will likely be in playoffs although division games are unpredictable.

IF hypothetically I knew Bills would win last 6 games, I would say the odds are not too bad about making playoffs; not a solid bet but better than better 00 on a roulette wheel.

Coach Mularkey appears to be a motivator and I do not think they will give up nor play inexperienced players as some suggest. I think he will fight for every win.

juice
11-24-2004, 12:02 AM
Nice Chart.. Complete with color coding.:up:

I don't think there is any Realistic way to get in at 10-6 in the AFC with our conference record unless maybe the Jags, Jets and Chargers/Broncs all nose dive.. Am I right?

Lewis may be out 4-6 weeks according to League sources, his ankle may be worse than first thought.. They are waiting on Wed.'s MRI.. So there may be a few more possibilities.

clumping platelets
11-24-2004, 01:16 AM
It ain't ova til it's ova! :mad:

G. Host
11-24-2004, 07:45 AM
Nice Chart.. Complete with color coding.:up:

I don't think there is any Realistic way to get in at 10-6 in the AFC with our conference record unless maybe the Jags, Jets and Chargers/Broncs all nose dive.. Am I right?

No for the rules with more than two teams tie are wierd. I figure IF we won all remaining games we need at least two teams to have really bad 2nd halves and the rest could be taken care of by "better" teams beating competition.

I am not even taking into consideration that one of out "equals", as I labelled it, would go on a hot streak; Houston counts as one of three "winnable" games and Tennesse two. If they went won last six they would have chance of playoffs as well.

If I was a betting man and I was told that Bills made playoffs I'd bet that the seeds were NE, Pittsburgh (ironic that Bills getting into playoffs may give NE home field advantage), Colts, Denver, Chargers and Bills.

Once again this is speculative and hypothetical and I do not think it will happen.

justasportsfan
11-24-2004, 07:53 AM
they have gone through the "tough" portion of the schedule . we are playing 4 road games . Winning one will be tough.

G. Host
11-24-2004, 08:04 AM
If they win next one I think the rest will be easier. That is what the coach will be telling team - they learned to win at home and now they need to learn to win on the road.

But my posting had nothing to do with actually predicting Bills will win but whether the theory that if the Bills win out they actually have a chance for playoffs.

fabolouspaul
11-24-2004, 09:07 AM
There are a couple of good things going for us.
1. Our team is almost 100% healthy. TV is the main person m.i.a.
2. Jamal Lewis out with an injury for possibly 4 weeks.
3. Pennington could be out for the rest of the season.
4. Chargers still have to play KC twice, Denver, and at Indy.
5. Jags are playing at Minnesota next, then Pittsburgh.

Typ0
11-24-2004, 10:10 AM
Listen, we came out and sucked on several occasions and gave away a game as well. If we had put on a better performance in these games we would be in the hunt...but we aren't. This team does not deserve to go to the playoffs and they aren't going to. Please pass the salt.