Playoff possibilities

[TigerJ]

There are four teams ahead of Buffalo in the wild card race. They are the Jets, either the Broncos or Chargers, the Ravens and the Jaguars. Assuming Buffalo runs the table, this is what has to happen for Buffalo to squeek in:

The Jaguars are not a huge obstacle if Buffalo runs the table. They are a win and a tiebreaker ahead of Buffalo. I think they have two games left on the schedule they can't win; home versus Pittsburgh and at Green Bay.

Baltimore is two wins and a tiebreaker ahead of Buffalo. That means they have to lose three games for Buffalo to finish ahead of them. They have games against Indianpolis and Pittsburgh remaining. There is a good chance they'll lose both of those. We h ave to find one more loss for them. It won't be agains the Giants or in the last game of the season, at home versus. . Miami. The best chance is next week, at home against Cincinnati. That's asking quite a bit.

The Jets are three wins ahead of Buffalo. I think the second tiebreaker is division record. The Jets are just ahead of Buffalo there too. They have two losses just about guaranteed in games versus NE and Pittsburgh. The NE game also takes away the second tiebreaker from the Jets. The problem is The Jets also own the third tiebreaker. That will be a tough one to overcome, conference record. Top come out ahead of the Jets, The Jets have to lose two additional games. They are home against Houston and Seattle, and on the road against St. Louis. Hopefully, Seattle and St. Louis aren't as bad as they both looked against Buffalo. Houston is a plucky team but not all that good either.

Ideally, Oakland beats Denver tonight. That would leave them two games ahead of Buffalo. They play San Diego next week. A loss would drop them to one ahead of Buffalo. They have two aditional losable games, at KC and home to Indianopolis. An additional loss might be tough to come up with if Denver wins tonight. The only other games they have are home to Miami, and at Tennessee.

That's it. Odds are pretty long against everything falling into place even if Buffalo runs the table.

[OpIv37]

That doesn't provide a lot of hope, but stranger things have happened. Right now, it's pretty scary because Buffalo running the table seems like the MOST likely portion of that scenario.

We're 3 bad plays away from being in the thick of the playoff hunt- how disappointing.

[Schobel94]

Actually, if the Jets drop to Houston, NE, and Pitt and beat Sea and St Louis, we would win on tie breakers. Our division and conference record would be the same, but we would win on common opponenets. I really hope Baltimore starts getting cold, cuz if they do and we play amazing and the Jets suck, we could make it to the playoffs. That's not asking too much, is it?

[FTG]

Jacksonville, Oakland, Jets first game..................what could have been :sadwalk:

[imbondz]

we're 5-6 and talking about playoffs? the last time we won 5 games in a row was in 1998 w/ Flutie.

[TigerJ]

Is common opponents the second tiebreaker (after head to head)? Then it would be division record and conference record after that.

[ryjam282]

Well, OAK took care of Denver...So, that is one down...Just about 14 others to go :D

[Dozerdog]

Missed a great chance with the Jets & Cards- Second string Quincy Carter was knocked out and they had Brooks Bollinger at the helm for a few plays

[G. Host]

Any playoff calculation needs to include the special rules they have regarding when three or more teams have equal records; I tried programming all of the possibilities once and gave up.

[Dozerdog]

Any playoff calculation needs to include the special rules they have regarding when three or more teams have equal records; I tried programming all of the possibilities once and gave up.
If two of the 3 are in the same division, always go the divisoinal tiebreaker first.

[Dozerdog]

Basically, we need to get ahead of Jacksonville & Baltimore by a complete game. I can see this happening if we get some luck.


The harder accomplishment will be getting ahead of the Jets or Denver. Jets are a maybe if Pennington stays out. They were awful yesterday. We need to get ahead of the Jets to break divisoonal ties first.

[Dozerdog]

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs


Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES


Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild-Card tie breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to step one of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tie breaker, all other clubs revert to step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
In comparing division and conference records or records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.
To determine home-field priority for Wild-Card qualifiers, apply division tie breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild-Card tie breakers (if teams are from different divisions).

[Ebenezer]

Basically, we need to get ahead of Jacksonville & Baltimore by a complete game. I can see this happening if we get some luck.


The harder accomplishment will be getting ahead of the Jets or Denver. Jets are a maybe if Pennington stays out. They were awful yesterday. We need to get ahead of the Jets to break divisoonal ties first.
We need Indi to beat Bal...that will be huge and can happen....Indi is fighting for the second home spot.

[G. Host]

Houston and Cincinnati won so both those teams are 5-6 also and have extra incentive to try harder to try to reach .500/winning season/playoffs. I forgot my power cord to my computer :blush: but when I get it back I'll update my chart with playoff teams and what we need to happen.

if only Arizona and beaten the damned Jest!

[Dozerdog]

Basically, the key is getting ahead of the Jets if we are to have any shot at it, as you break ties within a division first. Unless the Bills and Jets both run the table and everyone else loses (Jax, Hou, Balt, Denver) we will neet to pass the Jets


If the Bills and Jets end up with identical records -

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Tied

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
If we beat Miami, and they lose to the Pats, we will both be 3-3... tied

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

This is tricky- we will play 12 common opponents - they are 6-2 against the common opponents right now. We are 4-3. They have Pittsburgh, Seattle, Pats, & Rams remaining (3 division leaders that are a a combined 31-13 record). We have Cincy, Miami, San Fran, Pittsburgh, Cleveland - a combined 21-34 record

I think we can reallistically finish with an 8-4 combined record while the Jets at best will finish 8-4 or 7-5.


Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Same as common opponent minus the NFC west - this is where we are hurting. The Bills are currently 2-6 while the Jets are 6-3- .....this is where the loss to Jax and Oakland really kick us in the ass. If we beat Miami, Cincy,Cleveland and lose to pittsburgh, we are done. We need to win on common opponents and hope the Rams and Seahawks do some damage.

[Dozerdog]

Houston and Cincinnati won so both those teams are 5-6 also and have extra incentive to try harder to try to reach .500/winning season/playoffs. I forgot my power cord to my computer :blush: but when I get it back I'll update my chart with playoff teams and what we need to happen.

if only Arizona and beaten the damned Jest!


We need to get ahead of Balt and Jax- even if we end up in a 3 way WC tie with those two i think we get killed in the tie break.

Cincy remaining schedule is tough- Philly & NE, Balt, Buffalo, and the Giants.
We need them to beat a depleated Ravens team and get their cans kicked by Philly, NE, and the Bills.

Houston has an easier schedule- and needs to win some to help Buffalo- They need to beat the Jets and Jax, they have the creampuff Browns & Bears, and Indy. They could beat us out. They are 5-3 in conference


Denver is a real puzzler- they play what on paper is a soft schedule but have to clear some talented teams Titans, KC, Miami, Chargers, Colts. They could lose 3 or 4 of them. Let's pray for 4. We need the Chargers to go on a rampage.

[mybills]

This thread should be a sticky so we can catch updates as the weeks go by.

[HAMMER]

we're 5-6 and talking about playoffs? the last time we won 5 games in a row was in 1998 w/ Flutie.

.....but then we got into the playoffs and he choked!