Playoff picture as of now...

[Shiny Chicken]

First of all, Buffalo needs to run the table... we lose one game, we may not be mathematically out, but we're out.

Chances of happening: approx. 50% (Pittsburgh is the big question mark. Thankfully that game is at home)

and.... on top of that, 3 out of the following 4 need to happen:

(in order of liklihood, as I see it)

1. Jacksonville needs to lose once... In their final four games, Chicago and Houston will come to Jax and they have to go to Green Bay and Oakland.

I highly doubt their chances of going into Lambeau and winning.

Chances of coming to be: approx. 95% probability


2. The Ravens need to lose twice. Thay have the Giants and Miami at home... very winnable games for them. But they have to go to both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, which will both be very difficult road games to win.

Chances of coming to be: approx. 80% probability


3. Denver needs to lose twice. This one's a bit tougher. They play at home against the Colts in their last game... their most likely loss, but other than that, their schedule isn't too bad. They play Indy and Miami at home, and at Kansas City and Tennessee. Kansas City is probably the least likely spoiler for them. Tennessee not far behind. A loss to Miami would be a big shocker, though.

Chances of coming to be: approx. 50% probability


4. The Jets need to lose all their games. The Jets play at home against Seattle and NE and on the road against Pittsburgh and St. Louis. NE and Pittsburgh are possible losses, but nowhere near to givens... and the likelihood of them losing to either St. Louis or Seattle is quite small.

OR The Jets lose 3 out of the 4, one of the losses coming to NE. We get the edge in the tiebreaker with a better record against common opponents (our head to head and division record would be tied)

Chances of coming to be: approx. 10% probability


Overall.. chances are actually better than I thought... maybe around 25% - 30%... not great... but better than the 5-7% I saw someone post.

Edit: Corrected the section about the Jets AGAIN

[imbondz]

what if we finish with the same record as the Jets? who gets in?

[mackey789]

We dont have to go past the jets, in order to make it we need to overcome Denver (7-5), Jacksonville (6-6), Cincinatti (6-6), and Baltimore (7-5). If we finish ahead of these teams we will make the playoffs. So right now we are 1 game out. If we run the table theres an extremely good chance that we get in.

[Shiny Chicken]

what if we finish with the same record as the Jets? who gets in?
As far as I can tell, almost definitely the Jets

[mackey789]

so in the playoffs we would be the 6th seed; NE, Pitt, Indy, San Diego, Jets, and the BILLS!

[Shiny Chicken]

We dont have to go past the jets, in order to make it we need to overcome Denver (7-5), Jacksonville (6-6), Cincinatti (6-6), and Baltimore (7-5). If we finish ahead of these teams we will make the playoffs. So right now we are 1 game out. If we run the table theres an extremely good chance that we get in.
Like I said, only 3 out of the 4 are required. I didn't include the Bengals, since us running the table includes us handing a loss to the Bengals, which puts them behind us.

[Turf]

The Jets usually do a swan dive at end of the season.
Regardless, we have to win out, which is not a given by any stretch. If we do win out, I believe we'll get in, and that we deserve to be in.

[imbondz]

As far as I can tell, almost definitely the Jets
why? we split the season, and if they lose to NE, we'll have the same division record at 3-3 :::

[Shiny Chicken]

We need to get ahead of 3 out of these 4... Jax, Baltimore, Denver, and NY.

Jax and Baltimore aren't too difficult... Denver is harder... NY is very difficult.

That's the simplified version of my first post.

[Shiny Chicken]

why? we split the season, and if they lose to NE, we'll have the same division record at 3-3 :::
Yes, but I'm quite sure that if we tie them, they'll always have the better conference record, no matter what, which breaks the tie in their favor.

[Shiny Chicken]

On further review... the next tiebreaker after division record is common opponents... I don't feel like researching how that would work out.

[imbondz]

I thought total points in both games played is the next tie-breaker, in which we would win.

[Shiny Chicken]

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.


If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs


Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.

[Shiny Chicken]

I thought total points in both games played is the next tie-breaker, in which we would win.
so, no

[imbondz]

f*** the Jets

[BAM]

WILD CARD RACE – Record & Conference Record

NY JETS’ REMAINING SCHEDULE (9-3) (7-3)
Sun. Dec. 12 @Pittsburgh 4:05 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 19 Seattle 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 26 New England 4:05 PM ET
Sun. Jan. 2 @St. Louis 1:00 PM ET

DENVER'S REMAINING SCHEDULE (7-5) (5-4)
Sun. Dec. 12 Miami 4:05 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 19 @Kansas City 1:00 PM ET
Sat. Dec. 25 @Tennessee 8:30 PM ET
Sun. Jan. 2 Indianapolis 4:15 PM ET

BALTIMORE'S REMAINING SCHEDULE (7-5) (4-4)
Sun. Dec. 12 NY Giants 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 19 @Indianapolis 8:30 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 26 @Pittsburgh 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Jan. 2 Miami 1:00 PM ET

JACKSONVILLE'S REMAINING SCHEDULE (6-6) (5-5)
Sun. Dec. 12 Chicago 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 19 @Green Bay 4:15 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 26 Houston 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Jan. 2 @Oakland 4:15 PM ET

CINCINNATI’S REMAINING SCHEDULE (6-6) (4-6)
Sun. Dec. 12 @New England 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 19 Buffalo 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 26 NY Giants 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Jan. 2 @Philadelphia 1:00 PM ET

BUFFALO’S REMAINING SCHEDULE (6-6) (3-6)
Sun. Dec. 12 Cleveland 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 19 @Cincinnati 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 26 @San Francisco 4:05 PM ET
Sun. Jan. 2 Pittsburgh 1:00 PM ET

HOUSTON’S REMAINING SCHEDULE (5-7) (5-4)
Sun. Dec. 12 Indianapolis 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 19 @Chicago 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Dec. 26 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM ET
Sun. Jan. 2 Cleveland 1:00 PM ET

[Shiny Chicken]

f*** the Jets
I agree... but we have a much better chance of passing the other three teams.

[Dozerdog]

First of all, Buffalo needs to run the table... we lose one game, we may not be mathematically out, but we're out.

Chances of happening: approx. 50% (Pittsburgh is the big question mark. Thankfully that game is at home)

and.... on top of that, 3 out of the following 4 need to happen:

(in order of liklihood, as I see it)

1. Jacksonville needs to lose once... In their final four games, Chicago and Houston will come to Jax and they have to go to Green Bay and Oakland.

I highly doubt their chances of going into Lambeau and winning.

Chances of coming to be: approx. 95% probability.


We need to get ahead of them a full game- they own us in a tiebreaker (head to head) Momentum working against them- since they beat the Colts on Oct 24th, they have only won once in 6 weeks





2. The Ravens need to lose twice. Thay have the Giants and Miami at home... very winnable games for them. But they have to go to both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, which will both be very difficult road games to win.

Chances of coming to be: approx. 80% probability.

:up: Lewis is out, team in trouble. They blew it today. The way their offense is playing- Miami os no gimmie. If The Giants want to salvage a playoff spot & Coughlin puts in Warner- Ravens could go 1-3 in their remaining games



3. Denver needs to lose twice. This one's a bit tougher. They play at home against the Colts in their last game... their most likely loss, but other than that, their schedule isn't too bad. They play Miami at home, and at Kansas City and Tennessee. Kansas City is probably the least likely spoiler for them. Tennessee not far behind. A loss to Miami would be a big shocker, though.

Chances of coming to be: approx. 50% probability.

KC will beat them, so will the Colts


4. The Jets need to lose three times. The Jets play at home against Seattle and NE and on the road against Pittsburgh and St. Louis. NE and Pittsburgh or possible losses, but nowhere near to givens... and the likelihood of them losing to either St. Louis or Seattle is quite small.

Chances of coming to be: approx. 15% probability.
They can finish ahead of us and Bills can still get in. If they Beat the Patriots and the Steelers continue to win, it helps us by making the final game of the year meaningless for Pittsburgh- so they might coast in that game.



Overall.. chances are actually better than I thought... maybe around 25% - 30%... not great... but better than the 5-7% I saw someone post.


Don't forget the 6-6 Bengals- we need them to lose to us (obviously) - this game could derail our chances.

[imbondz]

it'd be alot easier to figure out if we were 10-2 or 9-3 right now :::

[Shiny Chicken]

Jacksonville
We need to get ahead of them a full game- they own us in a tiebreaker (head to head) Momentum working against them- since they beat the Colts on Oct 24th, they have only won once in 6 weeks They're tied with us now, so all they have to do is lose once, which should be easy. If we run the table and they lose once, we're ahead of them.


Baltimore
:up: Lewis is out, team in trouble. They blew it today. The way their offense is playing- Miami os no gimmie. If The Giants want to salvage a playoff spot & Coughlin puts in Warner- Ravens could go 1-3 in their remaining gamesAnd all they actually have to do is lose to Indy and Pitts.

Denver
KC will beat them, so will the ColtsKC is unpredictable... I wouldn't be too sure of that.

NYJ
They can finish ahead of us and Bills can still get in. If they Beat the Patriots and the Steelers continue to win, it helps us by making the final game of the year meaningless for Pittsburgh- so they might coast in that game.As I said, only 3 out of those 4 actually need to happen. So if the other three go down, the Jets can do whatever they like.



Don't forget the 6-6 Bengals- we need them to lose to us (obviously) - this game could derail our chances.We have to run the table anyway, so it's a moot point.

[cordog]

very nice write up. Im starting to think playoffs more, but the fact of the matter is we have to win out. Cinncy is playing pretty good ball right now and we need NE to drop one so Pittsburgh has home field locked up before they come into buffalo.

[Dozerdog]

You got to worry about losing once to the Bengals or Steelers.

[Shiny Chicken]

You got to worry about losing once to the Bengals or Steelers.
As I saw someone else say once, I think TKO would play defense all by himself and play well, if it meant keeping Cinci from spoiling the Bills playoff chances.

The only reason we have s hot against the Steelers is because they might not be playing for anything and the game is in Buffalo, and we may be playing for a playoff spot, making things much more meaningful for us obviously.

[Shiny Chicken]

I have to say, though, that if we get to the playoffs, I'm nearly certain we're going to get beaten soundly in the first round... but it sure would be nice to get there.

[Dozerdog]

One last thing- wish heavilly for Colts/Steelers/Pats wins- they play a lot vs our wildcard opponents

[Shiny Chicken]

A small correction... in order for us to pass the Jets they'd actually need to lose out the season, unless we can win the common opponents tiebreaker.

[Dozerdog]

A small correction... in order for us to pass the Jets they'd actually need to lose out the season, unless we can win the common opponents tiebreaker.
We play the same schedule they do except for two games- they beat the chargers and Texans, we lost to the Jags and Oakland


So if we tie them record wise and in the division, we lead on common opponents

[BillsOverDolphins]

Bengals play at New England next week...hopefully when they lose that game it will eliminate them, making it an easier game for Buffalo the following week.

[Shiny Chicken]

Bengals play at New England next week...hopefully when they lose that game it will eliminate them, making it an easier game for Buffalo the following week.
Good consideration

[TigerJ]

I think your projection of the odds on Buffalo running the table is optimistic at 50%. I think The odds are about 50% that Buffalo will win their next three, but unless Pittsburgh has homefield locked up and they decide to rest starters in the final game, Buffalo is going to be a serious underdog. I'm not giving up yet, however.

[Dozerdog]

I put the Bill's chances of getting in the playoffs at less than 10%- Bills just running the table, Less than 20%

[Tatonka]

PS.. assuming all this happens and we make the playoffs..

who is going to be the qb when we go and play New England?

I am pretty sure we dont have one that is even close to capable of winning there.

[Canadian'eh!]

PS.. assuming all this happens and we make the playoffs..

who is going to be the qb when we go and play New England?

I am pretty sure we dont have one that is even close to capable of winning there.

IF we make the playoffs it's OBVIOUSLY Drew... i see what you are saying but something about me WANTS to see that game. Nothing is easy. especailly what we need to overcome to get there. don't climb the mountain half way. somoene has to beat NE to win the Super Bowl... id love a shot at it being us...

[Drewpac]

I'm sick of all this "let's hope that Pittsburgh has homefield wrapped up" nonsense. They are not unbeatable, especially not in the Ralph. Hell, they almost lost to Jax tonight. If we can't beat them at full strength then we don't even deserve to be in the playoffs. I don't want us to sneak into the playoffs and get our asses kicked. I won't us to go into the playoffs on a high note, believing that we can do some damage.

Having said all of that, I think all of this discussion will be rendered moot because I believe we're going to lose to the Bengals in two weeks.

[Drewpac]

PS.. assuming all this happens and we make the playoffs..

who is going to be the qb when we go and play New England?

I am pretty sure we dont have one that is even close to capable of winning there.

There's always the possibility of a fortuitous injury. :winkpunch

[Tatonka]

I'm sick of all this "let's hope that Pittsburgh has homefield wrapped up" nonsense. They are not unbeatable, especially not in the Ralph. Hell, they almost lost to Jax tonight. If we can't beat them at full strength then we don't even deserve to be in the playoffs. I don't want us to sneak into the playoffs and get our asses kicked. I won't us to go into the playoffs on a high note, believing that we can do some damage.

Having said all of that, I think all of this discussion will be rendered moot because I believe we're going to lose to the Bengals in two weeks.

good point.

[Mr. Cynical]

PS.. assuming all this happens and we make the playoffs..

who is going to be the qb when we go and play New England?

I am pretty sure we dont have one that is even close to capable of winning there.That's a great question....with a really bad answer. You know beyond a shadow of a doubt that if in the miracle of miracles the Bills make it to the playoffs and we go to NE, we will absolutely lose with Drew. That's one prediction I would LOVE to be wrong on but I think you know it's true as well (since you brought it up).

Seriously, how can they play him in NE? But there is no way you bench him if he's done well enough to get to the playoffs. That is the perfect example of catch22.

[Drewpac]

That's a great question....with a really bad answer. You know beyond a shadow of a doubt that if in the miracle of miracles the Bills make it to the playoffs and we go to NE, we will absolutely lose with Drew. That's one prediction I would LOVE to be wrong on but I think you know it's true as well (since you brought it up).

Seriously, how can they play him in NE? But there is no way you bench him if he's done well enough to get to the playoffs. That is the perfect example of catch22.

I think that game would be the massacre to end all massacres. Something like 11 yards passing and 6 TOs.

[Mahdi]

A small correction... in order for us to pass the Jets they'd actually need to lose out the season, unless we can win the common opponents tiebreaker.
I dont see why we need to pass the Jets at all.... For the Bills to make it we need to win out...then have Baltimore drop 2 of their last 4 games ,,,,,jax drop 1 of their last 4 and Denver drop 2 of their last 4.

[CuseJetsFan83]

the only way the jets will not make the playoffs at this juncture, is if they pull at 2000 and finish 9-7 again........... and with the NFC west being as weak as it is this year...... i dont really see seattle or st louis stopping them


ne and pitt are the only true tests the jets have left..........

its all basically a scramble for #6 aka faces either indy or sandiego

based on schedules left, the cincy/buff winner should have a good shot.........BUT in my opinion i think that you can never take anything for granted, and who knows what will happen, remember the chaos of a few years ago with the week 17 hijinks!

but here is a serious question........... with pitt and ne pretty much assured of the inside track for a 1/2 seed......... which would u rather face should buffalo make it....... or if you were a wild card team X.............


san diego superchargers.............. or the very porous d but high octane O indy colts

[Mahdi]

the only way the jets will not make the playoffs at this juncture, is if they pull at 2000 and finish 9-7 again........... and with the NFC west being as weak as it is this year...... i dont really see seattle or st louis stopping them


ne and pitt are the only true tests the jets have left..........

its all basically a scramble for #6 aka faces either indy or sandiego

based on schedules left, the cincy/buff winner should have a good shot.........BUT in my opinion i think that you can never take anything for granted, and who knows what will happen, remember the chaos of a few years ago with the week 17 hijinks!

but here is a serious question........... with pitt and ne pretty much assured of the inside track for a 1/2 seed......... which would u rather face should buffalo make it....... or if you were a wild card team X.............


san diego superchargers.............. or the very porous d but high octane O indy colts
I would much rather face the chargers ....I think our D can handle their O which IMO is a fairly simple offense, that relies to heavily on Gates and Tomlinson.

[RedEyE]

I think that were underestimating the 49ers here. Despite the win in Seattle, the Bills have a horrible record of winning on the road vs West Coast teams. SF has showed several signs of life this season and could pick the Bills off. The Bills D love giving up the TE, TD. E. Johnson ring a bell? Make no mistake about it, this will be a tough game.

[Tatonka]

none of the games left on the schedule are easy.. but we should be favored to win 3 out of 4 of them as the odds come out from vegas.

[don137]

My two cents...

The Steelers have been barely winning games. A last second missed FG by Jax preserved another Steelers win. They are beatable especially at the Ralph.

The Jets are pretty much guaranteed a spot.

With Lewis out and tough away games the Ravens are crashing.

The Broncos do not have a cake walk schedule either. KC would like nothing more than to knock out the Broncos playing in KC. Plus the Broncos play at Tennessee during a Sunday night game so you know the Titans will be fired up. The thing that worries me is if Indy rests there players during the last game of the season against Denver.

Buffalo playing Cincy on the road worries me more than Pittsburgh at home. The Bengals have been playing pretty good football lately. One thing I can see though is TKO being very fired up for this game.

As slim chances that the Bills have it sure is fun to watch. I was jumping up more and screaming yesterday than I have in a couple of years. It is exciting knowing there still is a chance at the post-season. That Jacksonville loss could definitely come back to haunt the Bills.

[Tatonka]

My two cents...

The Steelers have been barely winning games. A last second missed FG by Jax preserved another Steelers win. They are beatable especially at the Ralph.

The Jets are pretty much guaranteed a spot.

With Lewis out and tough away games the Ravens are crashing.

The Broncos do not have a cake walk schedule either. KC would like nothing more than to knock out the Broncos playing in KC. Plus the Broncos play at Tennessee during a Sunday night game so you know the Titans will be fired up. The thing that worries me is if Indy rests there players during the last game of the season against Denver.

Buffalo playing Cincy on the road worries me more than Pittsburgh at home. The Bengals have been playing pretty good football lately. One thing I can see though is TKO being very fired up for this game.

As slim chances that the Bills have it sure is fun to watch. I was jumping up more and screaming yesterday than I have in a couple of years. It is exciting knowing there still is a chance at the post-season. That Jacksonville loss could definitely come back to haunt the Bills.

good post

:up:

[Shiny Chicken]

I dont see why we need to pass the Jets at all.... For the Bills to make it we need to win out...then have Baltimore drop 2 of their last 4 games ,,,,,jax drop 1 of their last 4 and Denver drop 2 of their last 4.
I never said we did... read more carefully :p:

[finsrclowns]

On further review... the next tiebreaker after division record is common opponents... I don't feel like researching how that would work out.

If we win out, the Jets would have to lose 3 of 4. If they do, we'd win the common opponents tie breaker because several of their non division common opponents are still left on the schedule so we'd definetely get that tie breaker.

[Shiny Chicken]

Yeah, I updated that section... one of those three losses would have to be at the Patriots, though. If they beat the Patriots, even if they lose the other three and we win out, the Jets have us on the division record tiebreaker, whic comes before the the common opponents tiebreaker.