Playoff picture as of now...

[Shiny Chicken]

First of all, Buffalo needs to run the table... we lose one game, we may not be mathematically out, but we're out.

Chances of happening: approx. 50% (Pittsburgh is the big question mark. Thankfully that game is at home)

and.... on top of that, 3 out of the following 4 need to happen:

(in order of liklihood, as I see it)

1. Jacksonville needs to lose once... In their final four games, Chicago and Houston will come to Jax and they have to go to Green Bay and Oakland.

I highly doubt their chances of going into Lambeau and winning.

Chances of coming to be: approx. 95% probability


2. The Ravens need to lose twice. Thay have the Giants and Miami at home... very winnable games for them. But they have to go to both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, which will both be very difficult road games to win.

Chances of coming to be: approx. 80% probability


3. Denver needs to lose twice. This one's a bit tougher. They play at home against the Colts in their last game... their most likely loss, but other than that, their schedule isn't too bad. They play Indy and Miami at home, and at Kansas City and Tennessee. Kansas City is probably the least likely spoiler for them. Tennessee not far behind. A loss to Miami would be a big shocker, though.

Chances of coming to be: approx. 50% probability


4. The Jets need to lose all their games. The Jets play at home against Seattle and NE and on the road against Pittsburgh and St. Louis. NE and Pittsburgh are possible losses, but nowhere near to givens... and the likelihood of them losing to either St. Louis or Seattle is quite small.

OR The Jets lose 3 out of the 4, one of the losses coming to NE. We get the edge in the tiebreaker with a better record against common opponents (our head to head and division record would be tied)

Chances of coming to be: approx. 10% probability


Overall.. chances are actually better than I thought... maybe around 25% - 30%... not great... but better than the 5-7% I saw someone post.

Edit: Corrected the section about the Jets AGAIN

[imbondz]

what if we finish with the same record as the Jets? who gets in?

[mackey789]

We dont have to go past the jets, in order to make it we need to overcome Denver (7-5), Jacksonville (6-6), Cincinatti (6-6), and Baltimore (7-5). If we finish ahead of these teams we will make the playoffs. So right now we are 1 game out. If we run the table theres an extremely good chance that we get in.

[Shiny Chicken]

what if we finish with the same record as the Jets? who gets in?

As far as I can tell, almost definitely the Jets

[mackey789]

so in the playoffs we would be the 6th seed; NE, Pitt, Indy, San Diego, Jets, and the BILLS!

[Shiny Chicken]

We dont have to go past the jets, in order to make it we need to overcome Denver (7-5), Jacksonville (6-6), Cincinatti (6-6), and Baltimore (7-5). If we finish ahead of these teams we will make the playoffs. So right now we are 1 game out. If we run the table theres an extremely good chance that we get in.

Like I said, only 3 out of the 4 are required. I didn't include the Bengals, since us running the table includes us handing a loss to the Bengals, which puts them behind us.

[Turf]

The Jets usually do a swan dive at end of the season.
Regardless, we have to win out, which is not a given by any stretch. If we do win out, I believe we'll get in, and that we deserve to be in.

[imbondz]

As far as I can tell, almost definitely the Jets

why? we split the season, and if they lose to NE, we'll have the same division record at 3-3

[Shiny Chicken]

We need to get ahead of 3 out of these 4... Jax, Baltimore, Denver, and NY.

Jax and Baltimore aren't too difficult... Denver is harder... NY is very difficult.

That's the simplified version of my first post.

[Shiny Chicken]

why? we split the season, and if they lose to NE, we'll have the same division record at 3-3

Yes, but I'm quite sure that if we tie them, they'll always have the better conference record, no matter what, which breaks the tie in their favor.

[Shiny Chicken]

On further review... the next tiebreaker after division record is common opponents... I don't feel like researching how that would work out.

[imbondz]

I thought total points in both games played is the next tie-breaker, in which we would win.

[Shiny Chicken]

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

[Shiny Chicken]

I thought total points in both games played is the next tie-breaker, in which we would win.

so, no

[imbondz]

f*** the Jets