First of all, Buffalo needs to run the table... we lose one game, we may not be mathematically out, but we're out.
Chances of happening: approx. 50% (Pittsburgh is the big question mark. Thankfully that game is at home)
and.... on top of that, 3 out of the following 4 need to happen:
(in order of liklihood, as I see it)
1. Jacksonville needs to lose once... In their final four games, Chicago and Houston will come to Jax and they have to go to Green Bay and Oakland.
I highly doubt their chances of going into Lambeau and winning.
Chances of coming to be: approx. 95% probability
2. The Ravens need to lose twice. Thay have the Giants and Miami at home... very winnable games for them. But they have to go to both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, which will both be very difficult road games to win.
Chances of coming to be: approx. 80% probability
3. Denver needs to lose twice. This one's a bit tougher. They play at home against the Colts in their last game... their most likely loss, but other than that, their schedule isn't too bad. They play Indy and Miami at home, and at Kansas City and Tennessee. Kansas City is probably the least likely spoiler for them. Tennessee not far behind. A loss to Miami would be a big shocker, though.
Chances of coming to be: approx. 50% probability
4. The Jets need to lose all their games. The Jets play at home against Seattle and NE and on the road against Pittsburgh and St. Louis. NE and Pittsburgh are possible losses, but nowhere near to givens... and the likelihood of them losing to either St. Louis or Seattle is quite small.
OR The Jets lose 3 out of the 4, one of the losses coming to NE. We get the edge in the tiebreaker with a better record against common opponents (our head to head and division record would be tied)
Chances of coming to be: approx. 10% probability
Overall.. chances are actually better than I thought... maybe around 25% - 30%... not great... but better than the 5-7% I saw someone post.
Edit: Corrected the section about the Jets AGAIN
Chances of happening: approx. 50% (Pittsburgh is the big question mark. Thankfully that game is at home)
and.... on top of that, 3 out of the following 4 need to happen:
(in order of liklihood, as I see it)
1. Jacksonville needs to lose once... In their final four games, Chicago and Houston will come to Jax and they have to go to Green Bay and Oakland.
I highly doubt their chances of going into Lambeau and winning.
Chances of coming to be: approx. 95% probability
2. The Ravens need to lose twice. Thay have the Giants and Miami at home... very winnable games for them. But they have to go to both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, which will both be very difficult road games to win.
Chances of coming to be: approx. 80% probability
3. Denver needs to lose twice. This one's a bit tougher. They play at home against the Colts in their last game... their most likely loss, but other than that, their schedule isn't too bad. They play Indy and Miami at home, and at Kansas City and Tennessee. Kansas City is probably the least likely spoiler for them. Tennessee not far behind. A loss to Miami would be a big shocker, though.
Chances of coming to be: approx. 50% probability
4. The Jets need to lose all their games. The Jets play at home against Seattle and NE and on the road against Pittsburgh and St. Louis. NE and Pittsburgh are possible losses, but nowhere near to givens... and the likelihood of them losing to either St. Louis or Seattle is quite small.
OR The Jets lose 3 out of the 4, one of the losses coming to NE. We get the edge in the tiebreaker with a better record against common opponents (our head to head and division record would be tied)
Chances of coming to be: approx. 10% probability
Overall.. chances are actually better than I thought... maybe around 25% - 30%... not great... but better than the 5-7% I saw someone post.
Edit: Corrected the section about the Jets AGAIN
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