Bills vs. Cincy - broken down

[Tatonka]

per footballguys.com - great read.

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Buffalo's Willis McGahee vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Great Matchup)

Willis McGahee has been on a tear over the last few weeks, with
27/105/2 rushing and 2/12/0 receiving last week (7/312/6 rushing with
5/42/0 receiving over the past 3 weeks, good for 3rd among all fantasy
RBs in fantasy points per game). He is the focal point of the Buffalo
offense - start him if you've got him.

Cincinnati had trouble containing the Patriots' backs last week,
allowing 29/94/2 to New England's squad. Over the past 4 weeks, the
Bengals cough up an average of 128 rushing yards and 1 TD per game -
this year, they rank 28th in the NFL allowing an average of 138.2
rushing yards per game with 10 rushing TDs given away to date. The
Bengals do not deploy a feared rush defense.

Buffalo's Travis Henry continued to be sidelined by his ankle/leg
injury last week (out). C Jon Dorenbos (knee) and T Mike Williams
(knee) are both questionable. Cincinnati's squad is in reasonably good
health, with DE Duane Clemons (knee, questionable) and DE Carl Powell
(knee, probable) on the injury report.

The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 46F with a low
of 37F and a 20% chance of precipitation - that's decent weather for
Ohio in mid-December.

McGahee will enjoy room to roam vs. the soft Bengals.

[Tatonka]

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Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson vs. The Buffalo Defense (Tough Matchup)

Rudi Johnson ground out 24/89/0 rushing with 2/35/0 receiving vs. the
Patriots last week (the team managed 31/150/1 on the ground during the
game) - he's been adequate but not spectacular over the past 3 weeks,
with 69/347/2 rushing and 4/43/0 receiving to his credit (13th fantasy
RB in the land during that span). The guy is a decent #2 fantasy RB,
but don't expect a huge pile of fantasy points this week and you won't
be disappointed.

Cleveland managed 17/29/0 vs. the Bills last week. The team averages
56 rushing yards allowed per game over the past 4 weeks, with .3 TDs
surrendered per contest in this phase of the game. The Bills are 4th
in the NFL averaging 92.3 rushing yards allowed per contest this
season, and are tied with Pittsburgh at 1st allowing only 4 rushing
scores all season long. They are one of the premier defensive fronts
in the NFL this year.

Willie Anderson continues to play OT despite a damaged knee (probable
this week), while C Rich Braham is doubtful (knee), and Chris Perry is
listed as probable (abdomen). Buffalo's defense comes into the game in
fine health.

The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 46F with a low
of 37F and a 20% chance of precipitation - that's decent weather for
Ohio in mid-December.

Buffalo is very tough to move the ball on in either phase of the game
- this looks like a hard week to be a Johnson owner. Advantage,
Buffalo.

[Tatonka]

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Buffalo's Passing Attack vs. The Cincinnati Defense (Good Matchup)

Isn't it amazing how a solid running game can help lift an offense to
respectability? Drew Bledsoe was fantasy road-kill earlier this year,
but over the last 3 weeks he's tossed 56/94 for 652 yards, 6 TDs and 4
interceptions to crack the top 15 among all fantasy QBs in fantasy
points per game during that span (15th). Lee Evans is on fire, with 18
targets for 14/213/4 during that span (Moulds is the most-thrown to
receiver, with 31 for 16/199/1 to his credit, but Evans is the better
fantasy WR during recent weeks). The team is light at TE right now,
thanks to injuries that have sidelined Mark Campbell for the season,
and also put Tim Euhus out last week (7 targets for 6/54/1 during the
last 3 weeks for Euhus). Last week Bledsoe was unexciting, though,
with 12/27 for 100 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception (the team killed
Cleveland 37-7 anyway, and had 215 yards and 3 TDs rushing - Bledsoe
didn't need to throw very often in those circumstances).

Cincinnati has been in a lot of shootouts lately - most recently, they
allowed 18/26 for 260 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions to Tom Brady
and company. The team averages 223 net passing yards and 2.0 passing
scores allowed per game over the past 4 weeks, which is slightly more
than their season average of 206.8 passing yards allowed per game (21
passing scores given up to date). The Bengals don't dominate their
opponents in this phase of the game.

The Bills list TE Tim Euhus (knee, out), while the Bengals report S
Rogers Beckett (neck, questionable) and CB Deltha O'Neal (ankle,
questionable).

The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 46F with a low
of 37F and a 20% chance of precipitation - that's decent weather for
Ohio in mid-December.

Buffalo is showing up in this phase of the game recently, while the
Bengal's defense is not doing terribly well vs. opposing passers over
the past 4 weeks.

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[Tatonka]

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Cincinnati's Passing Attack vs. The Buffalo Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Just as Carson Palmer was hitting his stride (69/89 for 835 yards, 9
TDs and 5 interceptions in the last 2 ½ games), he went down with a
sprained knee. The word out of the Cincinnati at mid-week indicates
that while Palmer's knee isn't seriously injured, he is questionable
to play this week vs. Buffalo (he's still on crutches and wearing a
bulky knee brace). Jon Kitna was adequate in relief of Palmer last
week (9/13 for 126 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception). Kitna was solid
last year for the Bengals (324/520 for 3591 yards, 26 TDs and 15
interceptions) - there is no reason to rush Palmer back before the
knee is healthy. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (29 targets for 26/395/3) and
Chad Johnson (34 for 25/358/4) have exploded in recent weeks, and form
a lethal 1-2 punch at WR.

Buffalo's defense has been stout all season long, and currently ranks
3rd in the NFL allowing an average of 176.4 passing yards per game (18
passing scores surrendered to date). S Troy Vincent made a big splash
in his return to the lineup last week, with an awesome outing (1 solo
tackle, 1 assist, a sack, an interception and a fumble recovery).
Cleveland could only manage 9/21 for 67 yards, 1 TD and 2
interceptions vs. the Bills - they have averaged 174 passing yards
allowed per game over the past 4 weeks (with 1.8 passing scores given
away per game, though, which is fairly high).

Aside from Palmer (questionable), the Bengals are in good shape. CB
Nate Clements is probable for the Bills (shoulder).

The forecast for Paul Brown Stadium calls for a high of 46F with a low
of 37F and a 20% chance of precipitation - that's decent weather for
Ohio in mid-December.

Buffalo has a formidable pass D, but they've been off their game a bit
in the red-zone recently. Cincinnati brings some serious talent to the
table in this phase - this is a neutral matchup from where we sit.

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[Tatonka]

so in summary

bills - great matchup rushing and good matchup passing

bengals - tough matchup rushing and nuetral matchup passing.

i would say that = bills win?

[Mad Bomber]

so in summary

bills - great matchup rushing and good matchup passing

bengals - tough matchup rushing and nuetral matchup passing.

i would say that = bills win?

If we can shut down their running game, like what we have been doing to EVERYONE lately, and force Kitna to beat us through the air, we have a good chance to beat them defensively.

Their D sucks...Cleveland put up 48 against them a few weeks ago. If we can keep from being the awful road team from the past few years (i.e. Drew not turning the ball over 4-6 times) we should prevail.

My prediction...Bills 31 Bengals 17.

[BlackJohn]

I hope this game is close. The bills have been killing everyone lately. They need a close game to get better at winning them..... If they want to even win a playoff game or that last one against Pitt they need some practice I hope it goes like this.....

5 minutes to go .....
Bills need a touchdown to win ...... they score before the 2 minute warning
Cinnci gets the ball back, only needs a FG, and goes nowhere
Bills takeover on Downs and run out the clock

Why get in to the playoffs with blowout wins, this team needs a couple of tough hard games to grow even more together

[Tatonka]

sorry, but i will take the blowouts all day.