What it takes to get to the playoffs

[Charlieguide]

WOW, that was an amazing weekend of football. All around the league, strange things are happening. In our neck of the woods, with two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Bills are still looking for a ticket to the playoffs. Despite the Jags' win, I think Buffalo's chances improved this week, with Miami's win over NE.

Here's what needs to happen for the Bills to get into postseason play:

The given
Bills win their next two games, vs. SF (no-brainer) and PIT (see below).


The likely

Pittsburgh beats the Ravens (very likely) and loses to Buffalo (see below).

Denver loses one game (they play TEN, then Indy). This will be interesting. The Titans have been unpredictable recently, and so has Denver. Indy may be fighting for a bye or #3 seed in week 17, or they may rest their players. But the short of it is that the Broncos seem to be self-destructing.


What to hope for We only need one of the two!

The Jets lose their last two games.[/I] One loss is likely -- vs NE -- but week 17 vs. the Rams . . . not so much. To me, this is the back door in; the unlikely miracle, should the Jags let us down.

--OR--

[I]The Jaguars lose one game. They already upset the Packers, but they still have to face Houston and Oakland, two teams playing for pride if not the playoffs, and doing it well. IMO, this event is the single most important possibility, because it's not for certain, but not out of the question. And it's a lot more likely than the Jets losing out. The way I see it, if the Jags lose, the Bills are very likely to make the playoffs.


The best news of the week is the Miami-New England upset. This puts the Steelers a game ahead of the Pats, so if/when PIT beats Baltimore, they'll be able to rest their starters for part or all of the Bills game week 17. Yes, I'd like to see the team go into the playoffs having beaten the best team in the AFC, but I'd much rather see them take care of business in the playoffs. With all the letdowns early on, I think we're due a freebie.

[ScottLawrence]

WOW, that was an amazing weekend of football. All around the league, strange things are happening. In our neck of the woods, with two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Bills are still looking for a ticket to the playoffs. Despite the Jags' win, I think Buffalo's chances improved this week, with Miami's win over NE.

Here's what needs to happen for the Bills to get into postseason play:

The given
Bills win their next two games, vs. SF (no-brainer) and PIT (see below).


The likely

Pittsburgh beats the Ravens (very likely) and loses to Buffalo (see below).

Denver loses one game (they play TEN, then Indy). This will be interesting. The Titans have been unpredictable recently, and so has Denver. Indy may be fighting for a bye or #3 seed in week 17, or they may rest their players. But the short of it is that the Broncos seem to be self-destructing.


What to hope for We only need one of the two!

The Jets lose their last two games.[/I] One loss is likely -- vs NE -- but week 17 vs. the Rams . . . not so much. To me, this is the back door in; the unlikely miracle, should the Jags let us down.

--OR--

[I]The Jaguars lose one game. They already upset the Packers, but they still have to face Houston and Oakland, two teams playing for pride if not the playoffs, and doing it well. IMO, this event is the single most important possibility, because it's not for certain, but not out of the question. And it's a lot more likely than the Jets losing out. The way I see it, if the Jags lose, the Bills are very likely to make the playoffs.


The best news of the week is the Miami-New England upset. This puts the Steelers a game ahead of the Pats, so if/when PIT beats Baltimore, they'll be able to rest their starters for part or all of the Bills game week 17. Yes, I'd like to see the team go into the playoffs having beaten the best team in the AFC, but I'd much rather see them take care of business in the playoffs. With all the letdowns early on, I think we're due a freebie.


In a word:

Exactly. :star:

Denver and, Baltimore will lose this weekend.

Bills will win out.


And, I think the Jag's will lose there last game of the season to the Raiders....giving the Bills the final wild card spot.

[SoCalBillsFan]

One thing to think about....the rams might actually be playing for the playoffs in that final game against the jets. Hopefully they will get bulger back and win this weekend.

The steelers beating the ravens this weekend is HUGE. It eliminates the ravens and makes Pitts finally game irrellevant.

[jdenning]

I understand we all want the Jags, Balt, and denver to lose but the Jets beat us twice didnt they?? and they have 10 wins already so they would have the tie breaker on us right?? or am i wrong??

[BAM]

We beat them the last game 22-17... :dance:

[Dozerdog]

Awesome job, Charlieguide!!!

[G. Host]

Pittsburgh beats the Ravens (very likely) and loses to Buffalo (see below).

I do not know if I would call it very likely; the Ravens were the ONLY team to beat Pittsburgh this year (Lost 13-30 (http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/recap/NFL_20040919_PIT@BAL)) and while they have a new QB, the QB does not alone determine outcome of games. Hopefully the Steelers staff has been working full time on watching Ravens film and adjusting game plan. Hopefully new QB, new game plan, Bus and Duce, and the home field crowd will make the difference. I certainly will be hoping so but do not think that game is a make-or-break for the Bills.

[TigerJ]

Your scenarios are all well documented. I agree with G. Host in that it is not a given that Pittsburgh will beat the Ravens. Pittsburgh's loss is to the Ravens. The Ravens' defense is as brutal as anyone's in the league, and Pittsburgh's play has been pretty ordinary in recent weeks. I'm just hoping Pittsburgh has enough in the tank to take care of Baltimore. The only likely event on Buffalo's wish list is another loss by Denver. They do not have the look of a team that is hungry for the playoffs.

[TedMock]

I do not know if I would call it very likely; the Ravens were the ONLY team to beat Pittsburgh this year (Lost 13-30 (http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/recap/NFL_20040919_PIT@BAL)) and while they have a new QB, the QB does not alone determine outcome of games. Hopefully the Steelers staff has been working full time on watching Ravens film and adjusting game plan. Hopefully new QB, new game plan, Bus and Duce, and the home field crowd will make the difference. I certainly will be hoping so but do not think that game is a make-or-break for the Bills.

You beat me to it. The Ravens defense is still a big-play defense, and the offense is actually playing better (not that it's playing well). This game scares me. However, Pittsburgh should be looking for a little revenge. Isn't the Ravens game when Maddox went down? Maybe the guys want to rub it in more by winning with the rookie this time around. The game's also at Heinz, so give the advantage to Pittsburgh in a very tough game.

[The_Philster]

the QB does not alone determine outcome of games. according to some it does :lmao:

[Charlieguide]

I understand we all want the Jags, Balt, and denver to lose but the Jets beat us twice didnt they?? and they have 10 wins already so they would have the tie breaker on us right?? or am i wrong??


We beat them the last game 22-17... :dance:

Right, Bam. And if the Jets lose out while we win out, we would tie them at 10-6. Tiebreakers:

1) Head-to-head (tied)
2) Division record (would be tied in this scenario)
3) Record in common games (comes down to the last two weeds: our PIT and them vs. StL. Our scenario puts us ahead by two games in common opponents.) :dance:

I also agree that the Baltimore - Pittsburgh game looks a too close for comfort, but PIT has been playing VERY good football, finding ways to win. Baltimore looks better than they have on offense, but they only scored 10 points vs. the Colts, and Pittsburgh is MUCH better than them on defense! I see this as a low-scoring game, but the Steeler's offense has enough of an edge.

[G. Host]

according to some it does :lmao:

I'd like to see a team play completely without a QB for a series. Direct snaps, sweeps, reverses and whatever was needed but run down field without a QB.

[Turf]

I think the Jags are our biggest worry. If we win and the Jags lose one I think we'll get in. The only problem is I think the odds of the Jags winning the last two are better than them losing one. That BS end of the game TD against us could be the haunting factor.

[Iehoshua]

So if it came between us and the Jets, both 10-6, we would be in and they'd be out?...