Ingtar33
11-21-2002, 11:27 PM
The Bills last loss saw the Bills fall from a first place tie to a last place tie in the ACE East. The game against KC also saw the Bills play some of their most undisciplined and sloppy play of the season as in their first game back from a bye (with first place and the playoffs on the line) they came out unmistakably flat. Furthermore some disturbing trends have emerged over the course of the season that need to be addressed. The most disturbing of these trends all find their roots in the Bills inability to play disciplined football with the lead. Time and time again the Bills will gain leads only to squander them in a myriad of penalties (both offensive and defensive) poor play and three and out offensive series, almost as if this team cannot keep their edge without the game’s conclusion in doubt. As a result, the Bills have kept poor teams in games they have no business being in, and have not taken advantage of most of the opportunities that good teams give them, making every game an unnecessary nail-biter finish. Unfortunately if these problems remain unaddressed, this season will forever be an inglorious monument to self destruction.
This week’s opponent is the New Jersey er… New York Jets, who come into this game riding an impressive three game winning streak. A streak fueled by a return to the roots of last seasons success; a conservative short passing game, ball control football, bend but don’t break defense, and field position football. Furthermore as the Bills learned to their sorrow in week 1, the Jets have added special teams’ excellence to their winning formula.
This weekly review will follow the structure of the previous reviews, with a look at the match-ups, and a prediction on the score. For the gamblers, you'll note that I broke out of a two game slide last week in the predicting of the point spread winner and my record is now a mediocre 5-5 (I guess this is what I get for coin flipping for the winner). Furthermore, the Bills ball control scheme and red zone ineptitude combined to sting my once stellar Over-Under record, bringing it down to 7-3. Those Bills fans simply interested in my predictive powers with regard to game winners will be disappointed to know that I’m now on a two game slide (after a stellar 7-1 start to the season) dropping my record to a pedestrian 7-3 in picking the game winners.
When the Bills have the ball and are…
Running: The Bills offensive line ate the Chiefs alive last week, compiling 133 yards on the ground for a 5.1y/carry average. Travis Henry had his most complete game as a member of the Buffalo Bills, with 126y rushing and 38y receiving; and at one point during the game had touched the ball on seven consecutive plays. However, much to the consternation of Bills fans, the team inexplicably ran just two times in four trips inside the Chiefs twenty.
The Jets’ run defense has been the weakest part of this team’s weakest unit. They have only shown the ability (much like the Bills defense) to stop the run when there is no credible passing threat present. Currently their run D has been undermined by a weak, underperforming, and undersized front four and a slow but tough LB unit. In week 1 the Jets were run all over by T. Henry and the Bills to the tune of 142y for a 4.4y/carry average, including entire red-zone series which resulted in TDs that consisted of nothing but T. Henry runs (he would score 3 TDs that week). While the Jets have improved their D, expect Henry to put up another 100y against their weak front four, as the Bills should win the battle in the trenches again.
Passing: The Chiefs (like our past three opponents) succeeded to limit the effectiveness of our high flying passing game with a conservative 2 or 3 deep alignment, and very limited blitzing. In essence they gave the Bills the underneath routs in an attempt to for the Bills to string together long scoring drives. This strategy worked to perfection, as Bledsoe and company were severely limited to the short passing game yet again. Now what was viewed as our strongest facet of the game has become an area of minor concern and the Bills offensive coaching staff will continue to see these conservative defensive schemes until they start to exploit them more effectively.
Part of the Jets resurgence has been tied to the elimination of “the big” play against them. Walt Corey… er Ted Cottrell has the Jets playing very good bend but don’t break football, which has been aided perfectly by the team’s offensive resurgence. The first meeting between these two teams saw Bledsoe kept in relative check for most of the game as the Bills mostly misfired without any help from the Jets, while Moulds racked up over 100yards in receiving, proving time and time again that Aaron Beasley couldn’t cover him one on one. Now, unlike then, the Bills are on the same page, and the Jets have a better idea of how to stop the Bills (what with three separate opponents stopping us with just variations on the same theme), so I call it a wash, as Bledsoe and company should probably expect a fair day with close to 270yards through the air.
When the Jets have the ball and are…
Running: Against the Chiefs, the Bills run D slowed down the leagues best runner until it mattered most in the 4th quarter, then it promptly folded like a sheet. Unfortunately this seems to be a trend for our defense, as it can get a stop except when our team needs it the most. We have now lost two games (Denver and KC) because our D was unable to force a punt, allowing the team to drive the field (and in the first case score, second run out the clock). On the bright side our run D has shown signs of improvement as the gap assignments and some enormous individual efforts (such as those by Pat Williams) have been rather good in recent weeks, with our only real problem now being poor tackling.
The Jets have been rediscovering their running game in recent weeks as L. Jordan and C. Martin have each racked up over 100 yards this year during a game. One of the Jets early problems was Jets OC Paul Hackett insisted on a pass first strategy, abandoning one of the Jets biggest strengths over the last few years, their running attack. With their “new” offense, all the Jets accomplished were to get blown out week after week, until he turned the team over to Chad Pennington, and rediscovered their running game. Now the Jets are back to what they were good at, running and setting up the pass with the run. This will probably be where the game is won or lost as the Bills have traditionally had difficulty stopping the Jets running backs. If Pennington gets a serious play action threat the Bills D will be in for a long day.
Passing: Last Game the Bills pass defense held the potent Chiefs passing attack in check, including successfully shutting down the best TE in the business T.Gonzales. They did this by taking a page out of Bill Belichick’s play book with a “big nickel” formation (even the name was stolen) which featured A. Winfield at strong safety (Watson and Clements at CB and Prioleau at FS) and all three LB on the field. With this formation the Bills were able to take T.Gonzales out of the game, and kept enough LBs on the field to stop P.Holmes.
It is likely we will see this again against the Jets this week as Anthony Becht presents many of the same problems Gonzales does to a defense. The Jets, and Pennington, rely on an accurate, short, passing game augmented by play action and a credible deep threat posed by L.Coles. In many ways Pennington’s passing game is just like Tom Brady’s, accurate short, inaccurate long, and while I know Brady has the stronger arm, Pennington has better accuracy. Furthermore, Pennington has developed his footwork masterfully over the past two years for the WCO, which has aided his performance in the system, and given him a very fast release. If Pennington does have a weakness it is that he (like P.Manning) tends to out think himself. So, if the Bills can present some confusing looks he’s never seen, he might take himself out of his rhythm for us.
Conclusion: The Bills (at 5-5) still have a decent shot at the division title, and if they can run the table of their next three divisional games they could be in the drivers seat. In addition, after an opening game loss to a Jets team they felt they should have beaten, they should come out fired up for this game. Bills 28- Jets 24, Morton wouldn’t save them this week.
This week’s opponent is the New Jersey er… New York Jets, who come into this game riding an impressive three game winning streak. A streak fueled by a return to the roots of last seasons success; a conservative short passing game, ball control football, bend but don’t break defense, and field position football. Furthermore as the Bills learned to their sorrow in week 1, the Jets have added special teams’ excellence to their winning formula.
This weekly review will follow the structure of the previous reviews, with a look at the match-ups, and a prediction on the score. For the gamblers, you'll note that I broke out of a two game slide last week in the predicting of the point spread winner and my record is now a mediocre 5-5 (I guess this is what I get for coin flipping for the winner). Furthermore, the Bills ball control scheme and red zone ineptitude combined to sting my once stellar Over-Under record, bringing it down to 7-3. Those Bills fans simply interested in my predictive powers with regard to game winners will be disappointed to know that I’m now on a two game slide (after a stellar 7-1 start to the season) dropping my record to a pedestrian 7-3 in picking the game winners.
When the Bills have the ball and are…
Running: The Bills offensive line ate the Chiefs alive last week, compiling 133 yards on the ground for a 5.1y/carry average. Travis Henry had his most complete game as a member of the Buffalo Bills, with 126y rushing and 38y receiving; and at one point during the game had touched the ball on seven consecutive plays. However, much to the consternation of Bills fans, the team inexplicably ran just two times in four trips inside the Chiefs twenty.
The Jets’ run defense has been the weakest part of this team’s weakest unit. They have only shown the ability (much like the Bills defense) to stop the run when there is no credible passing threat present. Currently their run D has been undermined by a weak, underperforming, and undersized front four and a slow but tough LB unit. In week 1 the Jets were run all over by T. Henry and the Bills to the tune of 142y for a 4.4y/carry average, including entire red-zone series which resulted in TDs that consisted of nothing but T. Henry runs (he would score 3 TDs that week). While the Jets have improved their D, expect Henry to put up another 100y against their weak front four, as the Bills should win the battle in the trenches again.
Passing: The Chiefs (like our past three opponents) succeeded to limit the effectiveness of our high flying passing game with a conservative 2 or 3 deep alignment, and very limited blitzing. In essence they gave the Bills the underneath routs in an attempt to for the Bills to string together long scoring drives. This strategy worked to perfection, as Bledsoe and company were severely limited to the short passing game yet again. Now what was viewed as our strongest facet of the game has become an area of minor concern and the Bills offensive coaching staff will continue to see these conservative defensive schemes until they start to exploit them more effectively.
Part of the Jets resurgence has been tied to the elimination of “the big” play against them. Walt Corey… er Ted Cottrell has the Jets playing very good bend but don’t break football, which has been aided perfectly by the team’s offensive resurgence. The first meeting between these two teams saw Bledsoe kept in relative check for most of the game as the Bills mostly misfired without any help from the Jets, while Moulds racked up over 100yards in receiving, proving time and time again that Aaron Beasley couldn’t cover him one on one. Now, unlike then, the Bills are on the same page, and the Jets have a better idea of how to stop the Bills (what with three separate opponents stopping us with just variations on the same theme), so I call it a wash, as Bledsoe and company should probably expect a fair day with close to 270yards through the air.
When the Jets have the ball and are…
Running: Against the Chiefs, the Bills run D slowed down the leagues best runner until it mattered most in the 4th quarter, then it promptly folded like a sheet. Unfortunately this seems to be a trend for our defense, as it can get a stop except when our team needs it the most. We have now lost two games (Denver and KC) because our D was unable to force a punt, allowing the team to drive the field (and in the first case score, second run out the clock). On the bright side our run D has shown signs of improvement as the gap assignments and some enormous individual efforts (such as those by Pat Williams) have been rather good in recent weeks, with our only real problem now being poor tackling.
The Jets have been rediscovering their running game in recent weeks as L. Jordan and C. Martin have each racked up over 100 yards this year during a game. One of the Jets early problems was Jets OC Paul Hackett insisted on a pass first strategy, abandoning one of the Jets biggest strengths over the last few years, their running attack. With their “new” offense, all the Jets accomplished were to get blown out week after week, until he turned the team over to Chad Pennington, and rediscovered their running game. Now the Jets are back to what they were good at, running and setting up the pass with the run. This will probably be where the game is won or lost as the Bills have traditionally had difficulty stopping the Jets running backs. If Pennington gets a serious play action threat the Bills D will be in for a long day.
Passing: Last Game the Bills pass defense held the potent Chiefs passing attack in check, including successfully shutting down the best TE in the business T.Gonzales. They did this by taking a page out of Bill Belichick’s play book with a “big nickel” formation (even the name was stolen) which featured A. Winfield at strong safety (Watson and Clements at CB and Prioleau at FS) and all three LB on the field. With this formation the Bills were able to take T.Gonzales out of the game, and kept enough LBs on the field to stop P.Holmes.
It is likely we will see this again against the Jets this week as Anthony Becht presents many of the same problems Gonzales does to a defense. The Jets, and Pennington, rely on an accurate, short, passing game augmented by play action and a credible deep threat posed by L.Coles. In many ways Pennington’s passing game is just like Tom Brady’s, accurate short, inaccurate long, and while I know Brady has the stronger arm, Pennington has better accuracy. Furthermore, Pennington has developed his footwork masterfully over the past two years for the WCO, which has aided his performance in the system, and given him a very fast release. If Pennington does have a weakness it is that he (like P.Manning) tends to out think himself. So, if the Bills can present some confusing looks he’s never seen, he might take himself out of his rhythm for us.
Conclusion: The Bills (at 5-5) still have a decent shot at the division title, and if they can run the table of their next three divisional games they could be in the drivers seat. In addition, after an opening game loss to a Jets team they felt they should have beaten, they should come out fired up for this game. Bills 28- Jets 24, Morton wouldn’t save them this week.