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After reading all of the "the sky is falling" posts here recently criticizing GM T.Donahoe, I can't resist offering my own take on the team and some of the things that have been said about TD in various posts.
To start with, I would like to remind everyone that this is a team that finished last season with a winning record---just barely, to be sure---and would have made the playoffs if it had received competent play and leadership out of the QB position in any one of at least three of its losses last season (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, at New York). Still, it is a "work-in-progress" that has suffered from some serious setbacks with young players being counted on to play major roles at critical positions and important areas requiring improvement---something that can be said of most teams in the NFL.
More than a few posters here recently have said that GM T.Donahoe should be fired if the Bills do not make the playoffs next season. Some have justified this by saying that they are tired of watching the team lose, etc. I have two comments on this: 1.) Have you seen the Bills' schedule for next season? If you have, you would know that it is much tougher than the schedule they played this year---especially with Carolina, Tampa Bay and Miami getting back players who were injured last season and Oakland being significantly improved. The Bills will have to play sigificantly better as a team and get a few unexpected breaks to match their 9-7 record of last season, especially with a new, first year starting QB leading their offense. 2.) The Bills were a "winning" team with a 9-7 record that "woulda-coulda-shoulda" been a playoff team last season. One bone-head play in the first game of the season (Clements' failure to knock down the 4th down pass caught by J.Smith) and the substandard play of their veteran QB in close, winnable games against beatable teams (setting aside the games against the Patriots) prevented the team from making the playoffs. Despite having a new coaching staff, a new offensive philosophy and injuried that set back the development of the offensive line, the Bills were competitive in all but one game last season. While that was partially due to what proved to be a weaker than expected schedule and some breaks that they got along the way, the team, as a whole, played much better than it had under the previous coaching regime, despite having to compensate for the substandard play that it got from the QB position.
Now, some can say that none of this really matters--the fact is that the Bills didn't make the playoffs and still haven't won a SB. And, that the GM should be held ultimately responsible for this failure. True. But, let me ask you, how many GMs have won the SB in the last 5 years? How many GMs have torn down their teams and totally rebuilt them and made the playoffs in the last 5 years? Without extraordinary play from the QB position? I can only think of one (and that assessment depends on how good you think T.Brady is).
I agree with those who have said that the rebuilding of the Bills was set back three years by the G.Williams coaching regime. Williams talks a good game and is an excellent DC, but he was not cut out to be a HC and the staff that he hired was pathetically unprepared to perform their jobs on the NFL level--he was a perfect example of "The Peter Principle" in action. Unfortunately, the 8-8 record that the Bills achieved in his second season, largely due to the play of D.Bledsoe in the first half of that season, created a false impression that the team was better than it was and made it impossible to get rid of him before the chaos that he had created brought the team down to a level where he could be fired for his incompetence.
Now, you can blame TD for hiring G.Williams in the first place and I certainly do because it did set back the team. But, the reality is that no coach was going to be able to win with the team that he had in his first season and no GM could reasonably fire his HC for losing with that team. The problem came in Williams' second year, when the team finished 8-8. Even though it was apparent to a lot of Bills fans that there were problems with Williams' coaching style and staff, how could any GM in the NFL justify firing a HC whose team improved by 5 games in the win column in a single season and just missed making the playoffs? I don't think that has ever happened or ever will. No matter how bad the HC is. Still, TD was astute enough to realize that something wasn't going right at that point because, despite all of the questions and pressure put on him about G.Williams' contract status, he did not offer him a contract extension or re-sign him--even though that is exactly what most organizations would have done at that point. Instead, he let Williams--and Bledsoe, for that matter--go out and fall on his face in his third year by coaching the team down to the level of his incompetence. Then, as soon as he could reasonably do so, TD got rid of G.Williams.
Was hiring G.Williams a mistake? Yes. But, it was a mistake that TD corrected as soon as he was reasonably able to do so. And, even at that, it might not have been as much of a mistake as it turned out to be if Drew Bledsoe had played anywhere near as well as he should have been expected to play and did play for half a season after TD traded for him.
A lot of Bills fans seem to have forgotten the promise that Bledsoe brought on his arrival and in his first eight games with the team. For those who have forgotten, let me remind you that the Bills were DOA, coming off of a 3-13 season with Alex Van Pelt--the lovable, but hardly starting QB material Alex Van Pelt--as their probable starting QB after the welcome departure of erstwhile surfer-boy Rob Johnson. For those of you who weren't around then, we were looking at a return to the days of Kay Stephenson, June Jones and Joe Dufek as the Bills' starting QB. But, in an era when veteran starting QBs with even a modest resume generally cost two first-round draft picks, TD brought in Bledsoe, a QB who had taken the Pats to a SB, for a single first round pick. Despite the weaknesses in Bledsoe's game and resume, it looked like a brilliant move. And, initially, it was.
Bledsoe gave the Bills instant credibility and brought excitement to a team that was one of the five worst in the NFL. The trade "put fannies in the seats", which, while not that important to the fans, was essential to the health of our small-market franchise. It helped to attract veteran free agents who have been critical to turning what had been the makings of a pathetic defense into one of the best in the league. And, for eight games, it appeared that Bledsoe's on-field presence, leadership and experience would turn the team's fortunes around faster than any Bills fan had a right to expect. Halfway through Bledsoe's first season in Buffalo, the trade looked like a steal and TD looked like a genius--the Bills had credibility again and appeared to be on the verge of being competive, even if their coaching staff left a lot to be desired.
At that point, who would have thought that Bledsoe's play would deteriorate so rapidly that, in only a couple of years, Bills fans would be cursing the GM for making that trade? The few who would have prefered another bottom 10 finish with Alex Van Pelt at QB or who rather that the team still have its future hitched to the inconsistent play of Joey Harrington, please stand up---because those are really the only Bills fans who qualify as being prescient enough to criticize TD for trading for Bledsoe. The rest of us, like Donohoe, had a right to expect a lot more from Bledsoe on the field than he ultimately delivered.
The fact is that the quality of Bledsoe's play didn't just gradually decline, as one might expect from an aging, veteran QB--it deteriorated precipitously, like falling off the edge of a cliff. Now, initially, a lot of us--and TD, too, I suspect--blamed that on the coaching staff and the failure of G.Williams and K.Gilbride to adjust the Bills offensive philosophy to compensate for the weaknesses in Bledsoe's game that other teams were taking advantage of. Who would have thought that, even in an offense designed to minimize the burden placed on the QB, an intelligent, experienced, veteran QB who had been able to win with less talent around him in the past would continue to make rookie mistakes that would cost his team ballgames after all of these years? That's not what any NFL GM or HC or DC would reasonably expect from a QB with Bledsoe's resume--hell, even K.Warner and J.Garcia played better than Bledsoe did last season on worse teams. But, that's what the Bills got and that's why, despite what his arrival meant to the team, he is gone. And, it is also why, despite the cost, the Bills paid what they had to in draft picks to get JP Losman--a move that TD made in anticipation of the possibility that Bledsoe might continue to play at an unacceptable level.
Now, there are some who may say that TD should have known that G.Williams would be a lousy HC and should have been able to predict that D.Bledsoe would fail to get the job done at QB for the Bills and that, as a result, TD should be fired. OK, fine. But, find me a GM in the NFL who would have found a HC who would have won with the team G.Williams had his first season, who would have fired his HC after the team garnered 5 more wins in its second season, who would have passed up the chance to get a reasonably young veteran QB that had taken his team to a SB for only a first round draft pick and doomed his team to another pathetic losing season--if only to "put fannies in the seats"--who would not have given that QB a chance to show that he could still play productively in an offense designed to minimize his limitations. If you can find him, great--I'll join you on the bandwagon to fire TD immediately and hire him!
Let's take a look at some of the personnel moves that TD has made--some of which have drawn the ire of more than a few Bills fans:
DRAFT PICKS:
Trading a first round draft pick for D.Bledsoe looks like a bad move now, but, as I've said before, at the time, it looked like a brilliant move. And, in many respects it was because it gave a pathetic, 3-11 rebuilding team instant credibility and created abuzz around the team. It "put fannies in the seats"--and don't underestimate the importance of that at a time when the team was playing to mostly empty houses--and helped to attract some good free agents that helped make the team better.
While many consider M.Williams a bust and blame TD for not picking B.McKinnie instead of him, those who do forget that there were questions about an injury that McKinnie had suffered and about his attitude at the time of the draft. Additionally, McKinnie's agent was taking a very hard stance about contract negotiations for his client that ultimately led to McKinnie sitting out more than half of his rookie season. There were no such questions about M.Williams or his agent at the time and Williams was considered, by virtually every scouting "expert" to be the equal of McKinnie, with McKinnie being the slightly better pass-blocker and Williams being the slightly better run-blocker. Anyone who mentions J.Gross as a potential option forgets that Gross was rated a mid-second round pick by many and was considered a "reach" when he was drafted as high as he was. The problems with M.Williams developed after he was drafted--indeed, as he failed to develop further after a decent rookie season.
One can argue that the Bills didn't need to draft W.McGahee with their first round pick when they did, but one can also argue that, if they hadn't, he would not be a Buffalo Bill right now. Those who say the Bills should have drafted an offensive lineman instead forget that the Bills' O-line was considered to be a young, up-and-coming unit at the time and that everyone was expecting the Bills to grab C.Kelsay to fill their needs at DE. Well, the Bills got McGahee and Kelsay and, while you can argue that they could have taken someone else in the second round if they just took Kelsay at # 1, that would leave them without McGahee and what he brings to the table offensively. Those who argue that the Bills had T.Henry and did not need McGahee have something of a point, but one could just as easily argue, in the long term, McGahee offers the team a lot more than T.Henry. As Bills fans, we all appreciate how good T.Henry is and what he has done for the team, but we tend to overlook his limitations--which is something that NFL GMs and HCs don't and can't do: if T.Henry was as good as Henry and a lot of Bills fans would like to think, don't you think that there would already have been some team that would have traded a # 2 pick for him already? When teams like the Cards and Fins would rather go with a rookie or convince R.Williams to come out of drug-induced retirement than trade for a consistent 1400 yard rusher, don't you think that says something about what they think of his limitations? As great a pick-up as T.Henry was in the second round, taking McGahee at a point when the Bills could afford to give him time to get healthy has and will make the Bills a better team.
Reports from the combine on the QBs that worked out there simply reinforce the wisdom of making the moves necessary to pick JP Losman last season. Assuming the Bills would have finished where they did finish last season without making the trade with Dallas, the Bills would be in no position to pick up a QB in the upcoming draft capable of stepping into the starting QB spot this year or next. Whether Losman works out or not, his potential to be a good starting NFL QB is certainly greater than any QB in this year's draft not named Aaron Rodgers, who will almost certainly not be left on the board after the tenth pick in the first round. Consider the second and fifth round picks that the Bills gave to Dallas as the cost of having Losman as the Bills' starting QB this season instead of D.Bledsoe. Anyone who still thinks that the Bills could have or should have found a way to draft B.Roethlisberger instead of JP Losman last year obviously missed my post on that subject and all of the news reports that it was based on--yes, the Bills tried to get into a position to draft Roethlisberger, but none of the teams ahead of Pittsburgh were willing to trade down with them because they specifically wanted to draft certain players, that the did draft, that they felt would not still be available if they traded down with the Bills.
As for the other players that the Bills have taken in the drafts overseen by Donahoe, I think that it is fair to say that it has been a "mixed bag". L.Evans, N.Clements and W.McGahee have been everything a Bills fan could ask for. M.Williams hasn't been a bust, but has been a bit of a disappointment for someone taken as high as he was. A.Schobel has been good. C.Kelsay has become exactly the player that he was expected to be--a high-motor, high-effort guy who would be solid, but not spectacular. R.Denney has become solid, but not nearly good enough to justify where he was taken in the draft. J.Jennings was solid, but not much more than that. C.Wire has been a decent special teams guy, but, otherwise, has been a bust considering how high he was taken. The same could be said of A.Crowell, although, to be fair, he really hasn't had a chance, unlike Wire, to show what he is capable of doing. K.Thomas has been very good considering where he was taken in the draft. At this point it is still to early to evaluate D.McFarland or T.Anderson, but I have a feeling that we are going to find out a lot more about the two of them, as well as R.Edwards and J.Bannan, very soon. While I don't think that it is fair to expect very much out of any player taken in the last three rounds of the draft, M.Pucillo stands out as perhaps the worst player drafted by TD to make the team--I don't know if the fact that he even made the team speaks more about the coaches or the GM or Pucillo's ability to convince them all that he could actually play, but it appears that he was a "workout warrior" who had more than just the GM fooled about his ability to play in the NFL.
Other than Wire and Pucillo, the biggest disappointments amongst the players drafted during Donahoe's reign have been J.Reed and S.Aiken. While I don't know that you can expect that much from a WR taken in the 4th round, when you take the NCAA's leading pass receiver in the 2nd round, you have to expect more from him than J.Reed has delivered. I don't know how any GM could have anticipated that one of the most sure-handed WRs in college football over the last decade would develop "butter-fingers" in his second year as a pro, but, if J.Reed doesn't step it up this season, both he and Wire can be considered "busts" that can legitimately be laid at Donohoe's doorstep.
The failures of some of Donahoe's draft picks have been offset slightly by some of the undrafted free agents that he has been able to add to the team. J.Stamer, R.Baker, J.Peters, J.Greer appear to be the kind of players that a NFL team has to be able to find if it hopes to make a run at a SB.
Still, despite his successes, one could argue that Donahoe's drafts have not been good enough to propel the Bills into the upper echelons of the league. The performance of JP Losman, T.Anderson and J.Reed this season, as well as that of the players that they take in this year's draft, will go a long way to determining how good these drafts have been in terms of the players that the Bills have selected.
Perhaps the biggest criticism that can be leveled at the drafts that TD has overseen is that the Bills have not expended very many high draft picks on offensive linemen since the Donahoe regime began. This might be a legitimate criticism if the New England Patriots had not been winning Super Bowls during this same period of time with fewer offensive linemen that they had drafted and those that they had drafted having been taken lower in the draft than where the Bills took the offensive linemen that they drafted--something that I detailed in a post before the beginning of last season.
While it is true that the top linemen taken in each year's draft are more likely to develop into great offensive linemen and that players taken in the first round are more likely to be more athletic and talented than players taken later in the draft, the number of draft picks and high round draft picks on a team's offensive line does not necessarily translate into the success of the offensive line or the success of the team. Offensive linemen take time to develop and guys who are dominant on the college level sometimes do not develop into dominant players on the pro level, while guys who may be less talented, but are more persistent and coachable may be able to mesh with the other players on a line to become an extremely effective unit together. Even if a team invests a lot of high draft picks in its offensive line and that line gels into a dominant unit, because offensive lineman taken high in the draft cost a lot it can hurt the team in other areas--just ask the KC Chiefs. As a result, most teams in the NFL try to go with a mix of players who their offensive line coach feels he can mold into an effective unit. With a first-round draft pick (M.Williams), a third rounder (J.Jennings), a couple of free agents drafted in the middle rounds (Villarial and Teague) and a couple of free agents picked up from the waiver wire and lower round draft picks (R.Tucker, L.Smith, D.Pruce, D.McFarland and M.Pucillo), the Bills had roughly the same mix of drafted and free agent players as the Pats and several other NFL playoff teams. Which would suggest that the problem with the Bills' offensive line was not that TD didn't invest enough high draft picks in the offensive line, but that there were other factors that contributed to the failure of the players that they had to develop into a unit that could perform at a high enough level. Whether this had to do with the talent or intelligence of the players and their ability to do the things that their coaches were asking of them, or the attitude of the players and their willingness to follow their coach's instructions, or the personalities of the players and their inability to work together, or the fact that the Bills have had four different O-line coaches since TD became the GM, with each having his own system and way of doing things, or the coaches failing to put the players in a position where they could work together optimally, etc., it is impossible for anyone, as a fan, to be able to say. But, whatever the problem is or has been, fixing it involves more than simply having the GM draft more offensive linemen or taking an offensive lineman high in the draft.
While I, as a fan, would like the Bills to draft an offensive lineman high in the draft and/or sign a couple of veteran O-linemen as free agents--simply because they need to get better and it would be a signal to us fans that they recognize this--the fact is that TD has already done the most important thing that he could do to improve the Bills offensive line: he put an end to the "revolving door" of offensive line coaches under G.Williams and hired one of the best and most respect O-line coaches in the NFL, in Coach McNally, to work under Coach Mularkey. Having done so and acknowledged that the Bills must get better on offense, I'm sure that TD will not only consult with MM and McNally about the best way to address the team's need on the offensive line.
FREE AGENTS:
While one can argue that the Bills' offense suffered greatly from the loss of P.Price, can anyone tell me what he has done since arriving in Atlanta to justify the kind of money that he is getting or that the Bills would have had to pay to keep him? While keeping him might have meant that the Bills would not have had to draft L.Evans, keeping him would have meant that the Bills could not have signed other players--especially on their defense, which is the cornerstone of the team. And, it certainly would not have made it easier for the Bills to improve their offensive line, which is the team's weak spot.
The same can be said of A.Winfield, who was grossly overpaid to do as much or less for the Vikings as T.McGee did for the Bills this past season at CB. While it is true that T.Vincent was signed to replace Winfield, one can never anticipate injuries and the Bills FO did say, when they didn't resign Winfield, that they had a lot of confidence in their young CBs, McGee and K.Thomas.
Despite the obvious weakness of the Bills' offensive line, there aren't many Bills fans, I suspect, who have lamented the departure of R.Brown or wish that he was with the team even now. Villarial did just as well for less money. And, while we can argue all day about just how good or bad T.Teague has been, there are more than a few "experts" out there who feel that Teague has developed into a solid player at center.
Even though there are some who might argue that signing L.Milloy was unnecessary, after watching C.Wire repeatedly get lost in coverage last season in Milloy's absence, can anyone say that the Bills would be better without Milloy? And, where would the Bills be without the defensive players that TD has signed in free agency: L.Fletcher (true, he's not very good in deep pass coverage, but he's been a tackling machine), S.Adams (who has played better than a lot of his critics thought), T.Spikes (look at what he has done for the D--does anyone think he would have signed here if Van Pelt or Harrington was the Bills QB instead of Bledsoe?), J.Posey (he hasn't been the force he was expected to be, but he's been solid) and, even, T.Vincent (who was solid at CB before his injury and looks like he will be a very good safety).
Last year at this time there were a lot of Bills fans moaning about the fact that TD let S.Gash leave and signed D.Shelton to replace him at FB because they didn't know much about Shelton. As it turned out, Shelton turned out to be a tremendous lead blocker--so much so that W.McGahee gave the ball when he scored the first TD of his career, something that you know meant a lot to Willis. So, obviously, Donahoe knew something about the player that he was signing that most Bills fans didn't know--which is what we should expect from the team's GM.
While Donahoe has been successful in turning the Bills franchise around by bringing in some very good free agents, especially on defense, he hasn't been completely successful with all of the free agents he has brought in: I.Reese, E.Robinson, M.McKenzie, etc. didn't exactly get the job done for the Bills. But, for the most part, these signings didn't put an undue burden on the team's salary cap and, on the whole, TD has done a fairly decent job of bringing in free agents who have contributed to the team and made the Bills better.
And, what about the recent moves that TD has made with the Bills players that were scheduled to become free agents this off-season?
While I'm not sure that A.Schobel's production is worth the amount of money that he got when he was re-signed, at the prices that pass-rushing DEs command these days, it's hard to argue with the deal that TD gave to Schobel--especially considering the questions that existed and still exist about how good C.Kelsay and R.Denney will prove to be. Under the circumstances, this probably has to be considered a good signing.
While I would have liked to see the Bills resign P.Williams and it is likely that they could have gotten him for less than the Vikings gave him, the question is whether that money could be better used on some other position given the fact that the Bills had already drafted the player that they feel could replace P.Williams, T.Anderson, and have another, more experienced player on their roster, R.Edwards, who can step in and play in case Anderson is unable to do the job as well as they think that he can. A lot of Bills fans are discounting Anderson, who came to the Bills with a reputation as a run-stuffer with the ability to get penetration, because he didn't play much last season and they don't know what he can do. But, it appears that Coach Krumrie and the Bills are handling Anderson in much the same way as they dealt with C.Kelsay--keeping him under-wraps for his rookie season and expecting him to step up and be ready to be a solid player who can take the starting job away from a more experienced, but inconsistent player in his second year. According to the reports that I have read, the Bills coaching staff really likes Anderson. If this is the case and they have told TD that they feel that he is ready to step in as the starter next to S.Adams, they may have told TD to save the money that he would have had to spend to sign P.Williams and put it into another position that the team needs to fill.
As for Jonas Jennings, I think the CBS Sportsline article on the first two days of the free agent period (http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/8249573) says it all: the kind of money that Jennings wanted and got from SF was stupid money for a player who, quite simply put, just isn't that good. Jennings has been a solid player for the Bills, but not a great one and he has been missed games in every season that he has been in the league, which means that he requires a good back-up who is capable of stepping in and starting at least a game or two, if not more (which means that his back-up's agent is going to want more money for his client!). Given the Bills needs--for two back-up QBs, a TE, and, most importantly, on the O-line--it simply didn't make sense for the Bills to consider giving Jennings the kind of money that he was looking for once he turned down the offer that they made to him last summer. It is to Donohoe's credit, not his detriment, that he chose not to create more salary cap problems for the Bills by signing Jennings to the kind of money that he was looking for, even if that was somewhat less than what he got from SF.
While it is true that T.Donahoe probably could have and should have been nicer and less rude in the way that he handled P.Williams, J.Jennings and, even possibly, D.Bledsoe on their way out of town, the fact remains that he was not necessarily wrong in letting these players go (or even in acquiring Bledsoe in the first place). In making the moves that he makes, any GM has to take a lot of factors into consideration--on and off of the field--that may not be readily apparent to even the most knowledgeable of fans. While we may know what the salary cap numbers are or what we see the players doing on game days, we don't know everything that's happening in the lockerroom or at practice or at meetings in the front office. For example, we don't know if, after working with him, Coach Mularkey or Coach McNally may have told TD that Jennings doesn't fit what they ultimately want to do with the O-line or if they think that they can convert a player that they already have on the roster into a serviceable LT who will mesh better with the other players that they have on the line than Jennings, etc. We don't know what they are looking for--because the vast majority of us are not coaches or GMs with enough knowledge of the game to be able to figure out what they are trying to do and, being NFL coaches and GMs who never want to show their hand to anyone, they are not going tell us!
The only way that we can determine whether the GM is doing his job well or not is to look at the product--the team--that gets put on the field during the season and determine whether the team is competitive, capable of playing well and getting better or following a plan that will result in it getting better in the near future.
While the ultimate goal is to not only make the playoffs, but win the Super Bowl, as Bills fans should know only too well, judging a team, its coaches and GM solely by whether it has won the SB is simply not fair--by that criterion, 31 of the 32 teams in the NFL are failures every year and there's not much difference between the conference champ that loses the SB and the worst team in the league. Making the playoffs is a more reasonable standard, but, as last season amply demonstrated, even that isn't necessarily a fair measuring stick because in some seasons there are teams that will make the playoffs in one conference (like Seattle and St.Louis, this year) that aren't nearly as good as teams that didn't make the playoffs in the other conference (like the Bills, Ravens, etc.). Even looking at a team's record--whether a team won a certain number of games or won more than it lost, etc.--isn't necessarily a fair standard because, as I pointed out earlier, a team that has a much weaker schedule can have a better record than a better team that plays a tougher record or a team improve from one season to the next without it being reflected in its record because it has a harder schedule. Evaluating a team and how a GM is doing in guiding that team is a lot harder than simply looking at whether it won the SB, make the playoffs or, even had a winning record.
For those who think that T.Donahoe has done a horrible job as a GM, let me remind you that, in the last four years, the Bills have gone 9-7 and 8-8 in two of those seasons while being totally rebuilt and playing in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. While there are those who will argue that this, coupled with the fact that the team hasn't made the playoffs during this period, merely means that the team has been mediocre at best, I would simply point out that rebuilding usually means losing a lot and mediocre is a whole lot better than pathetic.
The question that I think that Bills fans have to ask themselves in evaluating the job that the GM has done is whether the team has been rebuilt in such a way that it has the team has the key elements in place to get better, be more competitive and challenge for a Super Bowl title now or in the near future. While I think that the Bills would be in a better position if G.Williams had been able to coach a team as well as he could talk about coaching a team and Drew Bledsoe had played as well as he should have been reasonably expected to play, as I look at the team, as it stands now, I see a team that is getting better and more competitive and is close to having what it needs to challenge for a SB title, but that still has some holes to fill, with some key players who will need to get more experience before they can take that next step. Even if the Bills do not have as good a record next season as they did this season, I see the team having a lot of the key pieces in place to make the Bills a factor in the NFL in the very near future: the defense is good enough to contend for a championship, the special teams are solid, the team has two solid WRs and a good franchise RB in place and a young, talented QB who has the potential to develop into a good QB. The question-marks are: will the defense continue to play as well as it has in against tougher competition and in big games, does Losman really have the ability that the coaches and FO think that he has and will he develop that potential quickly enough, and can the GM and coaches improve the O-line to get it to the level that it needs to get to for the team to be able to score consistently against even the best defenses in the league?
If you look at the Bills from this perspective--both the positives and the negatives--I think that it is fair to say that, while the record may not reflect it, the team, as a whole, is close to being in the same position that it was four years ago when TD took over as GM, with two very significant exceptions: it has been totally rebuilt so that it is generally a bit younger and is no longer completely mired in salary cap hell. To do that in four years, two of which have been generally entertaining and not totally pathetic, in spite of the mistakes that he has made, leads me to conclude that Tom Donahoe hasn't done a bad job as the Bills GM. Could he have done better? Sure. Should he have done better? I think he would have if he hadn't been such a hard-head at times. But, compare the job that he has done to the job M.Millen has done in Detroit or that B.Davis did in Cleveland or what has happened to a number of other NFL teams that have been or are in the process of being rebuilt during this time period. Has Donahoe done a better job than the S.Pioli-B.Belichick combo in New England? No. But, neither have the other 30 GMs in the NFL, including B.Polian, the architect of the great Bills teams of the 1990s, who was lucky enough to get a P.Manning to QB his team and has built a fantastic offense around him, but still hasn't been able to put together a defense good enough to give his offense a chance to win a championship. While the Bills haven't been as bad as some teams or as good as some others, TD has put an entertaining product on the field for half of his four years in Buffalo while building a team that has the potential to improve enough to contend for a SB crown in the not-too-distant future.
To those Bills fans who will still say, "I don't care. It's not good enough. I'm tired of losing! If the Bills don't make the playoffs this season, TD must go!", all I can say is that being a fan of TD's Bills teams for the last four years has been a whole lot easier than watching the Bills when they had E.Rutkowski, M.Briscoe, J.Harris, K.Stevenson, J.Jones, J.Dufek, et al leading teams that had no chance to win more than a couple of games during endless successions of seasons of rebuilding. If your frame of reference only extends to the last 15 years and you think that TD is a bad GM because the team hasn't made the playoffs for the last four years, you need to learn more about the history of the team--because you have no idea having a really bad Bills GM is like. Donahoe isn't perfect--by any means--but he's been a lot better than a lot of GMs that the Bills and other teams in the NFL have had.
To start with, I would like to remind everyone that this is a team that finished last season with a winning record---just barely, to be sure---and would have made the playoffs if it had received competent play and leadership out of the QB position in any one of at least three of its losses last season (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, at New York). Still, it is a "work-in-progress" that has suffered from some serious setbacks with young players being counted on to play major roles at critical positions and important areas requiring improvement---something that can be said of most teams in the NFL.
More than a few posters here recently have said that GM T.Donahoe should be fired if the Bills do not make the playoffs next season. Some have justified this by saying that they are tired of watching the team lose, etc. I have two comments on this: 1.) Have you seen the Bills' schedule for next season? If you have, you would know that it is much tougher than the schedule they played this year---especially with Carolina, Tampa Bay and Miami getting back players who were injured last season and Oakland being significantly improved. The Bills will have to play sigificantly better as a team and get a few unexpected breaks to match their 9-7 record of last season, especially with a new, first year starting QB leading their offense. 2.) The Bills were a "winning" team with a 9-7 record that "woulda-coulda-shoulda" been a playoff team last season. One bone-head play in the first game of the season (Clements' failure to knock down the 4th down pass caught by J.Smith) and the substandard play of their veteran QB in close, winnable games against beatable teams (setting aside the games against the Patriots) prevented the team from making the playoffs. Despite having a new coaching staff, a new offensive philosophy and injuried that set back the development of the offensive line, the Bills were competitive in all but one game last season. While that was partially due to what proved to be a weaker than expected schedule and some breaks that they got along the way, the team, as a whole, played much better than it had under the previous coaching regime, despite having to compensate for the substandard play that it got from the QB position.
Now, some can say that none of this really matters--the fact is that the Bills didn't make the playoffs and still haven't won a SB. And, that the GM should be held ultimately responsible for this failure. True. But, let me ask you, how many GMs have won the SB in the last 5 years? How many GMs have torn down their teams and totally rebuilt them and made the playoffs in the last 5 years? Without extraordinary play from the QB position? I can only think of one (and that assessment depends on how good you think T.Brady is).
I agree with those who have said that the rebuilding of the Bills was set back three years by the G.Williams coaching regime. Williams talks a good game and is an excellent DC, but he was not cut out to be a HC and the staff that he hired was pathetically unprepared to perform their jobs on the NFL level--he was a perfect example of "The Peter Principle" in action. Unfortunately, the 8-8 record that the Bills achieved in his second season, largely due to the play of D.Bledsoe in the first half of that season, created a false impression that the team was better than it was and made it impossible to get rid of him before the chaos that he had created brought the team down to a level where he could be fired for his incompetence.
Now, you can blame TD for hiring G.Williams in the first place and I certainly do because it did set back the team. But, the reality is that no coach was going to be able to win with the team that he had in his first season and no GM could reasonably fire his HC for losing with that team. The problem came in Williams' second year, when the team finished 8-8. Even though it was apparent to a lot of Bills fans that there were problems with Williams' coaching style and staff, how could any GM in the NFL justify firing a HC whose team improved by 5 games in the win column in a single season and just missed making the playoffs? I don't think that has ever happened or ever will. No matter how bad the HC is. Still, TD was astute enough to realize that something wasn't going right at that point because, despite all of the questions and pressure put on him about G.Williams' contract status, he did not offer him a contract extension or re-sign him--even though that is exactly what most organizations would have done at that point. Instead, he let Williams--and Bledsoe, for that matter--go out and fall on his face in his third year by coaching the team down to the level of his incompetence. Then, as soon as he could reasonably do so, TD got rid of G.Williams.
Was hiring G.Williams a mistake? Yes. But, it was a mistake that TD corrected as soon as he was reasonably able to do so. And, even at that, it might not have been as much of a mistake as it turned out to be if Drew Bledsoe had played anywhere near as well as he should have been expected to play and did play for half a season after TD traded for him.
A lot of Bills fans seem to have forgotten the promise that Bledsoe brought on his arrival and in his first eight games with the team. For those who have forgotten, let me remind you that the Bills were DOA, coming off of a 3-13 season with Alex Van Pelt--the lovable, but hardly starting QB material Alex Van Pelt--as their probable starting QB after the welcome departure of erstwhile surfer-boy Rob Johnson. For those of you who weren't around then, we were looking at a return to the days of Kay Stephenson, June Jones and Joe Dufek as the Bills' starting QB. But, in an era when veteran starting QBs with even a modest resume generally cost two first-round draft picks, TD brought in Bledsoe, a QB who had taken the Pats to a SB, for a single first round pick. Despite the weaknesses in Bledsoe's game and resume, it looked like a brilliant move. And, initially, it was.
Bledsoe gave the Bills instant credibility and brought excitement to a team that was one of the five worst in the NFL. The trade "put fannies in the seats", which, while not that important to the fans, was essential to the health of our small-market franchise. It helped to attract veteran free agents who have been critical to turning what had been the makings of a pathetic defense into one of the best in the league. And, for eight games, it appeared that Bledsoe's on-field presence, leadership and experience would turn the team's fortunes around faster than any Bills fan had a right to expect. Halfway through Bledsoe's first season in Buffalo, the trade looked like a steal and TD looked like a genius--the Bills had credibility again and appeared to be on the verge of being competive, even if their coaching staff left a lot to be desired.
At that point, who would have thought that Bledsoe's play would deteriorate so rapidly that, in only a couple of years, Bills fans would be cursing the GM for making that trade? The few who would have prefered another bottom 10 finish with Alex Van Pelt at QB or who rather that the team still have its future hitched to the inconsistent play of Joey Harrington, please stand up---because those are really the only Bills fans who qualify as being prescient enough to criticize TD for trading for Bledsoe. The rest of us, like Donohoe, had a right to expect a lot more from Bledsoe on the field than he ultimately delivered.
The fact is that the quality of Bledsoe's play didn't just gradually decline, as one might expect from an aging, veteran QB--it deteriorated precipitously, like falling off the edge of a cliff. Now, initially, a lot of us--and TD, too, I suspect--blamed that on the coaching staff and the failure of G.Williams and K.Gilbride to adjust the Bills offensive philosophy to compensate for the weaknesses in Bledsoe's game that other teams were taking advantage of. Who would have thought that, even in an offense designed to minimize the burden placed on the QB, an intelligent, experienced, veteran QB who had been able to win with less talent around him in the past would continue to make rookie mistakes that would cost his team ballgames after all of these years? That's not what any NFL GM or HC or DC would reasonably expect from a QB with Bledsoe's resume--hell, even K.Warner and J.Garcia played better than Bledsoe did last season on worse teams. But, that's what the Bills got and that's why, despite what his arrival meant to the team, he is gone. And, it is also why, despite the cost, the Bills paid what they had to in draft picks to get JP Losman--a move that TD made in anticipation of the possibility that Bledsoe might continue to play at an unacceptable level.
Now, there are some who may say that TD should have known that G.Williams would be a lousy HC and should have been able to predict that D.Bledsoe would fail to get the job done at QB for the Bills and that, as a result, TD should be fired. OK, fine. But, find me a GM in the NFL who would have found a HC who would have won with the team G.Williams had his first season, who would have fired his HC after the team garnered 5 more wins in its second season, who would have passed up the chance to get a reasonably young veteran QB that had taken his team to a SB for only a first round draft pick and doomed his team to another pathetic losing season--if only to "put fannies in the seats"--who would not have given that QB a chance to show that he could still play productively in an offense designed to minimize his limitations. If you can find him, great--I'll join you on the bandwagon to fire TD immediately and hire him!
Let's take a look at some of the personnel moves that TD has made--some of which have drawn the ire of more than a few Bills fans:
DRAFT PICKS:
Trading a first round draft pick for D.Bledsoe looks like a bad move now, but, as I've said before, at the time, it looked like a brilliant move. And, in many respects it was because it gave a pathetic, 3-11 rebuilding team instant credibility and created abuzz around the team. It "put fannies in the seats"--and don't underestimate the importance of that at a time when the team was playing to mostly empty houses--and helped to attract some good free agents that helped make the team better.
While many consider M.Williams a bust and blame TD for not picking B.McKinnie instead of him, those who do forget that there were questions about an injury that McKinnie had suffered and about his attitude at the time of the draft. Additionally, McKinnie's agent was taking a very hard stance about contract negotiations for his client that ultimately led to McKinnie sitting out more than half of his rookie season. There were no such questions about M.Williams or his agent at the time and Williams was considered, by virtually every scouting "expert" to be the equal of McKinnie, with McKinnie being the slightly better pass-blocker and Williams being the slightly better run-blocker. Anyone who mentions J.Gross as a potential option forgets that Gross was rated a mid-second round pick by many and was considered a "reach" when he was drafted as high as he was. The problems with M.Williams developed after he was drafted--indeed, as he failed to develop further after a decent rookie season.
One can argue that the Bills didn't need to draft W.McGahee with their first round pick when they did, but one can also argue that, if they hadn't, he would not be a Buffalo Bill right now. Those who say the Bills should have drafted an offensive lineman instead forget that the Bills' O-line was considered to be a young, up-and-coming unit at the time and that everyone was expecting the Bills to grab C.Kelsay to fill their needs at DE. Well, the Bills got McGahee and Kelsay and, while you can argue that they could have taken someone else in the second round if they just took Kelsay at # 1, that would leave them without McGahee and what he brings to the table offensively. Those who argue that the Bills had T.Henry and did not need McGahee have something of a point, but one could just as easily argue, in the long term, McGahee offers the team a lot more than T.Henry. As Bills fans, we all appreciate how good T.Henry is and what he has done for the team, but we tend to overlook his limitations--which is something that NFL GMs and HCs don't and can't do: if T.Henry was as good as Henry and a lot of Bills fans would like to think, don't you think that there would already have been some team that would have traded a # 2 pick for him already? When teams like the Cards and Fins would rather go with a rookie or convince R.Williams to come out of drug-induced retirement than trade for a consistent 1400 yard rusher, don't you think that says something about what they think of his limitations? As great a pick-up as T.Henry was in the second round, taking McGahee at a point when the Bills could afford to give him time to get healthy has and will make the Bills a better team.
Reports from the combine on the QBs that worked out there simply reinforce the wisdom of making the moves necessary to pick JP Losman last season. Assuming the Bills would have finished where they did finish last season without making the trade with Dallas, the Bills would be in no position to pick up a QB in the upcoming draft capable of stepping into the starting QB spot this year or next. Whether Losman works out or not, his potential to be a good starting NFL QB is certainly greater than any QB in this year's draft not named Aaron Rodgers, who will almost certainly not be left on the board after the tenth pick in the first round. Consider the second and fifth round picks that the Bills gave to Dallas as the cost of having Losman as the Bills' starting QB this season instead of D.Bledsoe. Anyone who still thinks that the Bills could have or should have found a way to draft B.Roethlisberger instead of JP Losman last year obviously missed my post on that subject and all of the news reports that it was based on--yes, the Bills tried to get into a position to draft Roethlisberger, but none of the teams ahead of Pittsburgh were willing to trade down with them because they specifically wanted to draft certain players, that the did draft, that they felt would not still be available if they traded down with the Bills.
As for the other players that the Bills have taken in the drafts overseen by Donahoe, I think that it is fair to say that it has been a "mixed bag". L.Evans, N.Clements and W.McGahee have been everything a Bills fan could ask for. M.Williams hasn't been a bust, but has been a bit of a disappointment for someone taken as high as he was. A.Schobel has been good. C.Kelsay has become exactly the player that he was expected to be--a high-motor, high-effort guy who would be solid, but not spectacular. R.Denney has become solid, but not nearly good enough to justify where he was taken in the draft. J.Jennings was solid, but not much more than that. C.Wire has been a decent special teams guy, but, otherwise, has been a bust considering how high he was taken. The same could be said of A.Crowell, although, to be fair, he really hasn't had a chance, unlike Wire, to show what he is capable of doing. K.Thomas has been very good considering where he was taken in the draft. At this point it is still to early to evaluate D.McFarland or T.Anderson, but I have a feeling that we are going to find out a lot more about the two of them, as well as R.Edwards and J.Bannan, very soon. While I don't think that it is fair to expect very much out of any player taken in the last three rounds of the draft, M.Pucillo stands out as perhaps the worst player drafted by TD to make the team--I don't know if the fact that he even made the team speaks more about the coaches or the GM or Pucillo's ability to convince them all that he could actually play, but it appears that he was a "workout warrior" who had more than just the GM fooled about his ability to play in the NFL.
Other than Wire and Pucillo, the biggest disappointments amongst the players drafted during Donahoe's reign have been J.Reed and S.Aiken. While I don't know that you can expect that much from a WR taken in the 4th round, when you take the NCAA's leading pass receiver in the 2nd round, you have to expect more from him than J.Reed has delivered. I don't know how any GM could have anticipated that one of the most sure-handed WRs in college football over the last decade would develop "butter-fingers" in his second year as a pro, but, if J.Reed doesn't step it up this season, both he and Wire can be considered "busts" that can legitimately be laid at Donohoe's doorstep.
The failures of some of Donahoe's draft picks have been offset slightly by some of the undrafted free agents that he has been able to add to the team. J.Stamer, R.Baker, J.Peters, J.Greer appear to be the kind of players that a NFL team has to be able to find if it hopes to make a run at a SB.
Still, despite his successes, one could argue that Donahoe's drafts have not been good enough to propel the Bills into the upper echelons of the league. The performance of JP Losman, T.Anderson and J.Reed this season, as well as that of the players that they take in this year's draft, will go a long way to determining how good these drafts have been in terms of the players that the Bills have selected.
Perhaps the biggest criticism that can be leveled at the drafts that TD has overseen is that the Bills have not expended very many high draft picks on offensive linemen since the Donahoe regime began. This might be a legitimate criticism if the New England Patriots had not been winning Super Bowls during this same period of time with fewer offensive linemen that they had drafted and those that they had drafted having been taken lower in the draft than where the Bills took the offensive linemen that they drafted--something that I detailed in a post before the beginning of last season.
While it is true that the top linemen taken in each year's draft are more likely to develop into great offensive linemen and that players taken in the first round are more likely to be more athletic and talented than players taken later in the draft, the number of draft picks and high round draft picks on a team's offensive line does not necessarily translate into the success of the offensive line or the success of the team. Offensive linemen take time to develop and guys who are dominant on the college level sometimes do not develop into dominant players on the pro level, while guys who may be less talented, but are more persistent and coachable may be able to mesh with the other players on a line to become an extremely effective unit together. Even if a team invests a lot of high draft picks in its offensive line and that line gels into a dominant unit, because offensive lineman taken high in the draft cost a lot it can hurt the team in other areas--just ask the KC Chiefs. As a result, most teams in the NFL try to go with a mix of players who their offensive line coach feels he can mold into an effective unit. With a first-round draft pick (M.Williams), a third rounder (J.Jennings), a couple of free agents drafted in the middle rounds (Villarial and Teague) and a couple of free agents picked up from the waiver wire and lower round draft picks (R.Tucker, L.Smith, D.Pruce, D.McFarland and M.Pucillo), the Bills had roughly the same mix of drafted and free agent players as the Pats and several other NFL playoff teams. Which would suggest that the problem with the Bills' offensive line was not that TD didn't invest enough high draft picks in the offensive line, but that there were other factors that contributed to the failure of the players that they had to develop into a unit that could perform at a high enough level. Whether this had to do with the talent or intelligence of the players and their ability to do the things that their coaches were asking of them, or the attitude of the players and their willingness to follow their coach's instructions, or the personalities of the players and their inability to work together, or the fact that the Bills have had four different O-line coaches since TD became the GM, with each having his own system and way of doing things, or the coaches failing to put the players in a position where they could work together optimally, etc., it is impossible for anyone, as a fan, to be able to say. But, whatever the problem is or has been, fixing it involves more than simply having the GM draft more offensive linemen or taking an offensive lineman high in the draft.
While I, as a fan, would like the Bills to draft an offensive lineman high in the draft and/or sign a couple of veteran O-linemen as free agents--simply because they need to get better and it would be a signal to us fans that they recognize this--the fact is that TD has already done the most important thing that he could do to improve the Bills offensive line: he put an end to the "revolving door" of offensive line coaches under G.Williams and hired one of the best and most respect O-line coaches in the NFL, in Coach McNally, to work under Coach Mularkey. Having done so and acknowledged that the Bills must get better on offense, I'm sure that TD will not only consult with MM and McNally about the best way to address the team's need on the offensive line.
FREE AGENTS:
While one can argue that the Bills' offense suffered greatly from the loss of P.Price, can anyone tell me what he has done since arriving in Atlanta to justify the kind of money that he is getting or that the Bills would have had to pay to keep him? While keeping him might have meant that the Bills would not have had to draft L.Evans, keeping him would have meant that the Bills could not have signed other players--especially on their defense, which is the cornerstone of the team. And, it certainly would not have made it easier for the Bills to improve their offensive line, which is the team's weak spot.
The same can be said of A.Winfield, who was grossly overpaid to do as much or less for the Vikings as T.McGee did for the Bills this past season at CB. While it is true that T.Vincent was signed to replace Winfield, one can never anticipate injuries and the Bills FO did say, when they didn't resign Winfield, that they had a lot of confidence in their young CBs, McGee and K.Thomas.
Despite the obvious weakness of the Bills' offensive line, there aren't many Bills fans, I suspect, who have lamented the departure of R.Brown or wish that he was with the team even now. Villarial did just as well for less money. And, while we can argue all day about just how good or bad T.Teague has been, there are more than a few "experts" out there who feel that Teague has developed into a solid player at center.
Even though there are some who might argue that signing L.Milloy was unnecessary, after watching C.Wire repeatedly get lost in coverage last season in Milloy's absence, can anyone say that the Bills would be better without Milloy? And, where would the Bills be without the defensive players that TD has signed in free agency: L.Fletcher (true, he's not very good in deep pass coverage, but he's been a tackling machine), S.Adams (who has played better than a lot of his critics thought), T.Spikes (look at what he has done for the D--does anyone think he would have signed here if Van Pelt or Harrington was the Bills QB instead of Bledsoe?), J.Posey (he hasn't been the force he was expected to be, but he's been solid) and, even, T.Vincent (who was solid at CB before his injury and looks like he will be a very good safety).
Last year at this time there were a lot of Bills fans moaning about the fact that TD let S.Gash leave and signed D.Shelton to replace him at FB because they didn't know much about Shelton. As it turned out, Shelton turned out to be a tremendous lead blocker--so much so that W.McGahee gave the ball when he scored the first TD of his career, something that you know meant a lot to Willis. So, obviously, Donahoe knew something about the player that he was signing that most Bills fans didn't know--which is what we should expect from the team's GM.
While Donahoe has been successful in turning the Bills franchise around by bringing in some very good free agents, especially on defense, he hasn't been completely successful with all of the free agents he has brought in: I.Reese, E.Robinson, M.McKenzie, etc. didn't exactly get the job done for the Bills. But, for the most part, these signings didn't put an undue burden on the team's salary cap and, on the whole, TD has done a fairly decent job of bringing in free agents who have contributed to the team and made the Bills better.
And, what about the recent moves that TD has made with the Bills players that were scheduled to become free agents this off-season?
While I'm not sure that A.Schobel's production is worth the amount of money that he got when he was re-signed, at the prices that pass-rushing DEs command these days, it's hard to argue with the deal that TD gave to Schobel--especially considering the questions that existed and still exist about how good C.Kelsay and R.Denney will prove to be. Under the circumstances, this probably has to be considered a good signing.
While I would have liked to see the Bills resign P.Williams and it is likely that they could have gotten him for less than the Vikings gave him, the question is whether that money could be better used on some other position given the fact that the Bills had already drafted the player that they feel could replace P.Williams, T.Anderson, and have another, more experienced player on their roster, R.Edwards, who can step in and play in case Anderson is unable to do the job as well as they think that he can. A lot of Bills fans are discounting Anderson, who came to the Bills with a reputation as a run-stuffer with the ability to get penetration, because he didn't play much last season and they don't know what he can do. But, it appears that Coach Krumrie and the Bills are handling Anderson in much the same way as they dealt with C.Kelsay--keeping him under-wraps for his rookie season and expecting him to step up and be ready to be a solid player who can take the starting job away from a more experienced, but inconsistent player in his second year. According to the reports that I have read, the Bills coaching staff really likes Anderson. If this is the case and they have told TD that they feel that he is ready to step in as the starter next to S.Adams, they may have told TD to save the money that he would have had to spend to sign P.Williams and put it into another position that the team needs to fill.
As for Jonas Jennings, I think the CBS Sportsline article on the first two days of the free agent period (http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/8249573) says it all: the kind of money that Jennings wanted and got from SF was stupid money for a player who, quite simply put, just isn't that good. Jennings has been a solid player for the Bills, but not a great one and he has been missed games in every season that he has been in the league, which means that he requires a good back-up who is capable of stepping in and starting at least a game or two, if not more (which means that his back-up's agent is going to want more money for his client!). Given the Bills needs--for two back-up QBs, a TE, and, most importantly, on the O-line--it simply didn't make sense for the Bills to consider giving Jennings the kind of money that he was looking for once he turned down the offer that they made to him last summer. It is to Donohoe's credit, not his detriment, that he chose not to create more salary cap problems for the Bills by signing Jennings to the kind of money that he was looking for, even if that was somewhat less than what he got from SF.
While it is true that T.Donahoe probably could have and should have been nicer and less rude in the way that he handled P.Williams, J.Jennings and, even possibly, D.Bledsoe on their way out of town, the fact remains that he was not necessarily wrong in letting these players go (or even in acquiring Bledsoe in the first place). In making the moves that he makes, any GM has to take a lot of factors into consideration--on and off of the field--that may not be readily apparent to even the most knowledgeable of fans. While we may know what the salary cap numbers are or what we see the players doing on game days, we don't know everything that's happening in the lockerroom or at practice or at meetings in the front office. For example, we don't know if, after working with him, Coach Mularkey or Coach McNally may have told TD that Jennings doesn't fit what they ultimately want to do with the O-line or if they think that they can convert a player that they already have on the roster into a serviceable LT who will mesh better with the other players that they have on the line than Jennings, etc. We don't know what they are looking for--because the vast majority of us are not coaches or GMs with enough knowledge of the game to be able to figure out what they are trying to do and, being NFL coaches and GMs who never want to show their hand to anyone, they are not going tell us!
The only way that we can determine whether the GM is doing his job well or not is to look at the product--the team--that gets put on the field during the season and determine whether the team is competitive, capable of playing well and getting better or following a plan that will result in it getting better in the near future.
While the ultimate goal is to not only make the playoffs, but win the Super Bowl, as Bills fans should know only too well, judging a team, its coaches and GM solely by whether it has won the SB is simply not fair--by that criterion, 31 of the 32 teams in the NFL are failures every year and there's not much difference between the conference champ that loses the SB and the worst team in the league. Making the playoffs is a more reasonable standard, but, as last season amply demonstrated, even that isn't necessarily a fair measuring stick because in some seasons there are teams that will make the playoffs in one conference (like Seattle and St.Louis, this year) that aren't nearly as good as teams that didn't make the playoffs in the other conference (like the Bills, Ravens, etc.). Even looking at a team's record--whether a team won a certain number of games or won more than it lost, etc.--isn't necessarily a fair standard because, as I pointed out earlier, a team that has a much weaker schedule can have a better record than a better team that plays a tougher record or a team improve from one season to the next without it being reflected in its record because it has a harder schedule. Evaluating a team and how a GM is doing in guiding that team is a lot harder than simply looking at whether it won the SB, make the playoffs or, even had a winning record.
For those who think that T.Donahoe has done a horrible job as a GM, let me remind you that, in the last four years, the Bills have gone 9-7 and 8-8 in two of those seasons while being totally rebuilt and playing in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. While there are those who will argue that this, coupled with the fact that the team hasn't made the playoffs during this period, merely means that the team has been mediocre at best, I would simply point out that rebuilding usually means losing a lot and mediocre is a whole lot better than pathetic.
The question that I think that Bills fans have to ask themselves in evaluating the job that the GM has done is whether the team has been rebuilt in such a way that it has the team has the key elements in place to get better, be more competitive and challenge for a Super Bowl title now or in the near future. While I think that the Bills would be in a better position if G.Williams had been able to coach a team as well as he could talk about coaching a team and Drew Bledsoe had played as well as he should have been reasonably expected to play, as I look at the team, as it stands now, I see a team that is getting better and more competitive and is close to having what it needs to challenge for a SB title, but that still has some holes to fill, with some key players who will need to get more experience before they can take that next step. Even if the Bills do not have as good a record next season as they did this season, I see the team having a lot of the key pieces in place to make the Bills a factor in the NFL in the very near future: the defense is good enough to contend for a championship, the special teams are solid, the team has two solid WRs and a good franchise RB in place and a young, talented QB who has the potential to develop into a good QB. The question-marks are: will the defense continue to play as well as it has in against tougher competition and in big games, does Losman really have the ability that the coaches and FO think that he has and will he develop that potential quickly enough, and can the GM and coaches improve the O-line to get it to the level that it needs to get to for the team to be able to score consistently against even the best defenses in the league?
If you look at the Bills from this perspective--both the positives and the negatives--I think that it is fair to say that, while the record may not reflect it, the team, as a whole, is close to being in the same position that it was four years ago when TD took over as GM, with two very significant exceptions: it has been totally rebuilt so that it is generally a bit younger and is no longer completely mired in salary cap hell. To do that in four years, two of which have been generally entertaining and not totally pathetic, in spite of the mistakes that he has made, leads me to conclude that Tom Donahoe hasn't done a bad job as the Bills GM. Could he have done better? Sure. Should he have done better? I think he would have if he hadn't been such a hard-head at times. But, compare the job that he has done to the job M.Millen has done in Detroit or that B.Davis did in Cleveland or what has happened to a number of other NFL teams that have been or are in the process of being rebuilt during this time period. Has Donahoe done a better job than the S.Pioli-B.Belichick combo in New England? No. But, neither have the other 30 GMs in the NFL, including B.Polian, the architect of the great Bills teams of the 1990s, who was lucky enough to get a P.Manning to QB his team and has built a fantastic offense around him, but still hasn't been able to put together a defense good enough to give his offense a chance to win a championship. While the Bills haven't been as bad as some teams or as good as some others, TD has put an entertaining product on the field for half of his four years in Buffalo while building a team that has the potential to improve enough to contend for a SB crown in the not-too-distant future.
To those Bills fans who will still say, "I don't care. It's not good enough. I'm tired of losing! If the Bills don't make the playoffs this season, TD must go!", all I can say is that being a fan of TD's Bills teams for the last four years has been a whole lot easier than watching the Bills when they had E.Rutkowski, M.Briscoe, J.Harris, K.Stevenson, J.Jones, J.Dufek, et al leading teams that had no chance to win more than a couple of games during endless successions of seasons of rebuilding. If your frame of reference only extends to the last 15 years and you think that TD is a bad GM because the team hasn't made the playoffs for the last four years, you need to learn more about the history of the team--because you have no idea having a really bad Bills GM is like. Donahoe isn't perfect--by any means--but he's been a lot better than a lot of GMs that the Bills and other teams in the NFL have had.
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