My thoughts on the salary cap situation

[clumping platelets]

I know this is a new thread about the cap stuff.....but I will find it easier to explain and make sure most of y'all actually see it

1) Cap Adjustment: If you read my cap analysis article, you will see I predicted a cap debit of $1.5 million. If you also notice, my recent numbers were how much under an "unadjusted" salary cap cap of $85.5 million. I had not included this in my recent numbers. Therefore, my last update of about $5.28 million would read $3.78 million with my cap debit estimate. Clayton's numbers obviously include this cap debit. This is info that I usually have by now, but don't. It's very possible that the cap debit is greater than $1.5 million

2) How many salary escalators have been revealed in the past couple of weeks? Mike Williams, Nate Clements, and Coy Wire. These 3 have eaten up $6,208,125 from the cap space.

3) Buffalo News highlighted the largest cap numbers last week and I believe their interpretation of Mike Williams' is incorrect. His bonus is listed as a roster bonus NOT option, thus it should count $3 million not be amortized. That's why his number should continue to be at least $9.17 million, not $7.46 million. However, he also has had a number of NLTBE incentives in his deal (cap adjustment), but once a NLTBE is earned and if the player has the same NLTBE for the following year, it then becomes LTBE and counts on cap. MW has a NLTBE of $1.5 million in 2005 but a portion of that likely counts as LTBE. Buffalo News also stated that Sam Adams cap number is slightly more than $4 million while my number is less than $3 million. I have yet to determine where this discrepancy lies. It's likely that Adams had a bonus tied to making the Pro Bowl and/or playing time (Ruben Brown had a roster bonus tied to PB and playing time)

4) McGahee's NLTBE's from 2004 most likely are now considered as LTBE in 2005. Eric Moulds may still have his $175,000 Pro Bowl bonus and it would be LTBE. Both are not in my numbers

5) Supposedly, the Bills created $1.6 million of cap space Friday morning in order to make the deal with OL Mike Gandy and QB Kelly Holcomb. Most likely, as outlined in my analysis article, they guaranteed Schobel's $2 million roster bonus (i.e. converted it to signing bonus and spread it out over 5 yrs, 2005-2009 at $400,000/yr....cap savings of $1.6 million)

6) I will repeat YET AGAIN....I do not pretend that my numbers are 100% accurate. I can only go by mostly public information reported by the various media outlets. I do have access to some other info thru a group of "cyberspace capologists" but again, i'm at the mercy of what info is available thru that resource. The cap adjustment is one such piece of info.



NOTE: This is separate because it MUST BE EMPHASIZED.......Bills have many ways of creating cap space. Obviously, the Bills did not have the cap space available to re-sign either JJ or PW, but they may have decided weeks ago to move in another direction. PW was from the previous regime and most of them are gone. The OT market was the reason JJ is not back. Average OT's should not be given $10+ signing bonuses. I do not begrudge TD for not bringing JJ back, but I do question not bringing PW back.

The number took me by surprise and the discrepancies are directly linked to the cap adjustment AND bonuses now considered LTBE. It appears my numbers for my Miami cap page are much closer. However, it's a matter of information availability. Miami has 3-4 newspapers covering the Fins and contract details are much more attainable, while the Bills basically have 2 (Buffalo Snooze and D&C).

But that being said, look how far off the estimates of the media outlets were and mine. My numbers still were/are more accurate :peace:

[lordofgun]

I LUV CLUMP.

[The Natrix]

I LUV CLUMP.

:limp:

[clumping platelets]

I LUV CLUMP.



:flowers:

[Italian Stallion]

So do you think that because of our options to obtain money in several ways from restructuring and such, that we will still be active in FA after tonight?????

[Dozerdog]

http://www.geohumor.com/images/smilies/Fbillcat.gifACK!!!!

[clumping platelets]

So do you think that because of our options to obtain money in several ways from restructuring and such, that we will still be active in FA after tonight?????


Sure, everyone gets all worked up the first week of FA. Teams grossly overpay for average/above average talent (i.e Jonas Jennings). Once teams start signing players, fewer options are available and ridiculous demands come back down to reality.

Bills still haven't released anyone besides Drew or restructured anyone besides Moulds' (and possibly Schobel....see above)

[Novacane]

What is a "cap debit"? Where does it come from?
Thanks

[clumping platelets]

From my cap article


Cap Adjustments

The salary cap number released by the NFL and reported by the various media outlets is what's called an "unadjusted" salary cap. It's the salary cap derived from the provisions within the CBA using specified DGR's (designated gross revenues). However, each team is subject to what's called a "cap adjustment". The cap adjustment is derived from "Not-Likely-To-Be-Earned" (NLTBE) and "Likely-To-Be-Earned" (LTBE) incentives that nearly all players have in their contracts. LTBE's count against the cap year in which they are expected to be earned while NLTBE's do not count against that cap year. Example: If a player has a LTBE in 2004 and does not achieve it (basis for the Philly Loophole), then the team receives a credit for the amount of the LTBE in the following cap year. If a player has a NLTBE and achieves it, one of two things can happen. If the NLTBE incentive is earned, then it may be applied to that year using any remaining cap space or it will be a debit on the following cap year. When all the NLTBE and LTBE incentives are accounted for, each team has either a credit or debit that becomes their cap adjustment. Bills have had a debit each of the past 3 seasons. I do not have cap adjustment information prior to the 2002 season. The cap adjustments for 2002-2004 were approx. $2.2 million, $1,083,586, and $822,925 respectively. Each year, I have made an educated guess as to what the cap adjustment will be and have been over by about 25% each time. This year, I will be estimating $1.5 million. Primarily due to McGahee and Evans productivity. Cap adjustments are usually available "in cyberspace" by late-February, so I hope to have this info soon.

[chernobylwraiths]

I still see you as more of an Opus guy than Bill.

[Michael82]

My biggest complaint is....

How the heck could Donahoe let our salary cap be this bad? We always talk about him being great with the salary cap, but how could he leave us with so little room under the cap? What is with all these escalators and LTBE bonuses? Why would TD tie so much money up in escalators to some players (Mike Williams, Nate Clements, COY WIRE??) Over $6 million is insane IMO. I guess my question is, how can we finish fixing this team with only a couple million dollars to spend? We need a starting LT, LG or C, another TE, K, some help in the secondary, and maybe another DT.

[clumping platelets]

Mikey: the cap situation is not bad.

[Michael82]

Mikey: the cap situation is not bad.
How, with these new guys signed...how much do we currently have? and how much can we free up to if we need it?

[clumping platelets]

How, with these new guys signed...how much do we currently have? and how much can we free up to if we need it?


rough estimate, about $1.5 million

read my cap analysis article for how money can be freed up

[Michael82]

rough estimate, about $1.5 million

read my cap analysis article for how money can be freed up
So, we can't do the Henry trade until we free up some more money?

[Lone Stranger]

I believe Clump is doing darn well with the information available. My gripe is with TD who has materminded all the contracts. It's not like we won the Super Bowl and have to pay exhorbitantly for our veterans. We haven't even made the playoffs during his tenure.I, for one, do not think that TD's contract should be extended. If things work out well this year then that's another story. Maybe there is a reason Pitt let him go!!!!

[clumping platelets]

So, we can't do the Henry trade until we free up some more money?

No.....trading Henry frees up $1.02 million

[jpdex12]

I know this is a new thread about the cap stuff.....but I will find it easier to explain and make sure most of y'all actually see it

1) Cap Adjustment: If you read my cap analysis article, you will see I predicted a cap debit of $1.5 million. If you also notice, my recent numbers were how much under an "unadjusted" salary cap cap of $85.5 million. I had not included this in my recent numbers. Therefore, my last update of about $5.28 million would read $3.78 million with my cap debit estimate. Clayton's numbers obviously include this cap debit. This is info that I usually have by now, but don't. It's very possible that the cap debit is greater than $1.5 million

2) How many salary escalators have been revealed in the past couple of weeks? Mike Williams, Nate Clements, and Coy Wire. These 3 have eaten up $6,208,125 from the cap space.

3) Buffalo News highlighted the largest cap numbers last week and I believe their interpretation of Mike Williams' is incorrect. His bonus is listed as a roster bonus NOT option, thus it should count $3 million not be amortized. That's why his number should continue to be at least $9.17 million, not $7.46 million. However, he also has had a number of NLTBE incentives in his deal (cap adjustment), but once a NLTBE is earned and if the player has the same NLTBE for the following year, it then becomes LTBE and counts on cap. MW has a NLTBE of $1.5 million in 2005 but a portion of that likely counts as LTBE. Buffalo News also stated that Sam Adams cap number is slightly more than $4 million while my number is less than $3 million. I have yet to determine where this discrepancy lies. It's likely that Adams had a bonus tied to making the Pro Bowl and/or playing time (Ruben Brown had a roster bonus tied to PB and playing time)

4) McGahee's NLTBE's from 2004 most likely are now considered as LTBE in 2005. Eric Moulds may still have his $175,000 Pro Bowl bonus and it would be LTBE. Both are not in my numbers

5) Supposedly, the Bills created $1.6 million of cap space Friday morning in order to make the deal with OL Mike Gandy and QB Kelly Holcomb. Most likely, as outlined in my analysis article, they guaranteed Schobel's $2 million roster bonus (i.e. converted it to signing bonus and spread it out over 5 yrs, 2005-2009 at $400,000/yr....cap savings of $1.6 million)

6) I will repeat YET AGAIN....I do not pretend that my numbers are 100% accurate. I can only go by mostly public information reported by the various media outlets. I do have access to some other info thru a group of "cyberspace capologists" but again, i'm at the mercy of what info is available thru that resource. The cap adjustment is one such piece of info.



NOTE: This is separate because it MUST BE EMPHASIZED.......Bills have many ways of creating cap space. Obviously, the Bills did not have the cap space available to re-sign either JJ or PW, but they may have decided weeks ago to move in another direction. PW was from the previous regime and most of them are gone. The OT market was the reason JJ is not back. Average OT's should not be given $10+ signing bonuses. I do not begrudge TD for not bringing JJ back, but I do question not bringing PW back.

The number took me by surprise and the discrepancies are directly linked to the cap adjustment AND bonuses now considered LTBE. It appears my numbers for my Miami cap page are much closer. However, it's a matter of information availability. Miami has 3-4 newspapers covering the Fins and contract details are much more attainable, while the Bills basically have 2 (Buffalo Snooze and D&C).

But that being said, look how far off the estimates of the media outlets were and mine. My numbers still were/are more accurate :peace:
WTF! How could Wire get an escalator? For having his shoes on the right feet every game? For finding his way to the right sideline before a game? For making the cover of the Bill's merchandise catolog? I'd like to know how much the escalator was and why. Anyone got any leads?
As previously discussed, MW did well this year but he needs to help the team and open his wallet! Over $7mill for a RT...Sheesh!

[clumping platelets]

WTF! How could Wire get an escalator? For having his shoes on the right feet every game? For finding his way to the right sideline before a game? For making the cover of the Bill's merchandise catolog? I'd like to know how much the escalator was and why. Anyone got any leads?
As previously discussed, MW did well this year but he needs to help the team and open his wallet! Over $7mill for a RT...Sheesh!



Coy Wire signed a 4 yr deal in 2002. Recent trends are that players drafted who sign 4 yr ( or 5 yr) rookie deals, have salary escalators for their last yr. However, it's usually reported as such. I was surprised by this revelation. Wire's 2005 salary is now listed as $1.43 million which is exactly the amount that RFAs given the mid-level tender for 1st rd compensation. So the escalator basically said that his 2005 salary would be set to this tender amt if he met minimum playing time standards. Coy Wire would be a RFA if he had signed a 3 yr deal, so giving him an escalator in yr 4 allowed the Bills to sign him to the 4 yr deal and spread out his rookie bonus over 4 yrs instead of 3 yrs. Makes sense and it's something I should have thought of in retrospect :(

[Dozerdog]

So TD is a lot smarter than we give him credit for

[ArcticWildMan]

If we are paying Mike Williams 7+ mill a year it's time to cut him loose. He's not worth even close to that kind of jack.

[Dr. Lecter]

If there are bonuses and the such in that figure, cutting saves very little money so it would make no sense.

[Dicknoze69]

Clump...awesome job with the crap info we have. I think we were just a little shocked to see how tight we were up against the cap.

But we do have tons of roster and financial flexbility, it just might not always appear that way.

[Mr. Cynical]

If we are paying Mike Williams 7+ mill a year it's time to cut him loose. He's not worth even close to that kind of jack.
I tend to agree with this. This is the year he needs to show he is worth it IMO. $7M+ is for "great" tackles. He improved to "solid" this year....but solid tackles are $4-5M, not $7M+.