Are Buffalo fans overestimating Josh Reed?

[itsandthings]

I find it interesting, as a outsider, how (generally speaking) fans whom aren't worried about losing Peerless Price in free agency point to Josh Reed as a reason his loss wouldn't hurt that much. However, is that opinion really warranted?

Everyone knows Price has had a breakout year and, while Moulds is most definitely the #1 guy in Buffalo, he will be an attractive option for a team looking for a WR in free agency this offseason. Price is going to be looking for a deal along the lines of 6 yrs/$36M with a $10M+ signing bonus. That is what top WR earn in the NFL, and Price considers himself a top guy.

That is the quandry Buffalo is in, as they are already paying Moulds that kind of money. Teamed with Moulds, Price gives Buffalo one of the best, if not the best, WR combo in the NFL.

However, what if he signs elsewhere and Reed becomes the starter? Wouldn't that hurt the Bills offense? I like Reed as a player and think he is fine, but he hasn't shown anything as a rookie which makes you think he can replace Price. Most disturbing is how his performance has tailed off as the season progresses. In fact, other than a big game against a Vikings team that is the worst pass-defending team in the NFL, Reed hasn't been very impressive.

For the year Reed has produced a decent 30 catches for 375 yards (12.5 average) and 2 TD. However, in the last 6 games he only has 11 catches for 112 yards (10.2 average) and zero TDs. Take out the game against an awful Minnesota defense and he has only produced 22 catches for 265 yards (12.0 average) and 1 TD in 11 games. That is despite the fact that teams are paying extra attention to guys like Moulds, Price, Centers and Henry. Reed should be open all-day long. When you get right down to it, his performance has been spotty.

Has Reeds performance really warranted the idea that he could step in next year and perform anywhere near the level Price has in 2002? I say no, and if Buffalo lets Price go, which I think they should if he commands #1 WR money, they should look for a more proven but cheaper player in free agency to replace his production.

[Tatonka]

price is just as much a product of the system as he is a good wr.. he will got to another team and be an alvin harper... he cant hold up a number one spot alone.. he wouldnt be half of what he is without moulds..

and reed just hasnt been on the field much.. but i have watched all the games.. and can count on one hand passes he has dropped. i think he will do fine as a starter.. maybe not as good as peerless, but he will be fine.. and i am sure they will pick up someone else in the draft/FA as well if they lose peerless..

peerless has essentially not done a whole lot up until this season.. he has improved gradually over time, but this season is definately his break out year.. i just think he has moulds and drew and henry to thank for those good numbers as much as his talent.

reed has to play at some point. he is a high round draft pick.. i would rather see him get a shot sooner, rather than later. what good is he rotting on the bench? we havent been running a whole lot of 3wr sets with the weather, and i dont expect that to change with the results we got last week..

regardless... price will make a big choice.. collect a huge paycheck, and play for a team that is most likely not nearly as good offensively and will not give him the chance to put up the same numbers, along with having to shoulder the load of a number one guy (since that is the money he wants)

or

stay in buffalo where the situation is perfect for him, but do it for less than #1 guy money.

[Tatonka]

by the way.. i dont think peerless goes to another team as a number 2 guy.. he can do that here with his best friend moulds.

if he leaves.. he leaves to the guy somewhere.

[TigerJ]

I like Peerless Price as a receiver. He does some very good things. I also like Josh Reed. He also does some very good things. However, he does different good things than Price (catching the ball in the seams of the zone and RAC). If Price bolts the team in free agency Buffalo certainly gives up something and will have top make adjustments in their offence (what they expect their second receiver to do-the kind of routes. I think Buffalo can make the adjustment, but I expect they will also be looking at the soonest opportunity to find a WR who brings to the table a similar package of talents to Price.

[don137]

Originally posted by Tatonka
price is just as much a product of the system as he is a good wr.. he will got to another team and be an alvin harper... he cant hold up a number one spot alone.. he wouldnt be half of what he is without moulds..

.

I agree 100% that the system makes Price looks better than he really is and think he will be another Alvin Harper if he decides to go somewhere to be the #1.
Look at James Lofton. He resurrected his career when he came to Buffalo from the Raiders. He complemented the Bills system at the time. Of course, the K-gun could make a lot of receivers look good.

Reed and Price are different type of receivers. Reed is a possesion receiver and Price is a speedster. I am more impressed with what I see in Reed as a rookie than I did with Price when he was a rookie.

You can get speed receivers at a good value in the NFL these days. We don't need to spend a fortune on Price. Our defense needs too much help.

[TedMock]

If Price does go they need to find another speedster. I love Josh Reed and was ecstatic when they drafted him but as was already stated, his talents are different. He has a better knack for getting open and breaking tackles underneath that Price has. Price's tackle breaking ability has improved a lot though and Price is much more the deep threat than Reed is. I still say that a team needs that 4.2 guy. Michael Irvin was best when Alvin Harper was there and Andre Reed was best with Lofton and Beebe.

[Judge]

Originally posted by don137


Reed and Price are different type of receivers. Reed is a possesion receiver and Price is a speedster. I am more impressed with what I see in Reed as a rookie than I did with Price when he was a rookie.


Reed has essentially been used as a possession receiver, and I don't recall him ever being used to try to stretch the defense this year.

Is he capable of going deep though? I'm not familiar with his college career- does anyone know? Maybe he's got the killer speed too!

[lordofgun]

He went deep at times at LSU, but comparing LSU to the NFL is like comparing NAMBLA to HSBC.

[Judge]

What did he show in combine workouts as far as speed?

[lordofgun]

http://ww2.nfl.com/draft/2002/brandt_group3.html

Josh Reed
Wide Receiver
LSU
HT: 5-10 1/4 - WT: 205
40 time: 4.52 (turf)
D.O.B.: 5/1/80

Did not work out at the combine … He ran three 40s and had a 32 1/2-inch vertical jump, 9-foot, 11-inch long jump and had 13 strength reps … Not real tall or real fast … He is just very productive … Set all-time SEC receiving records this past fall … Came to LSU as a running back (rushed for 4,664 yards and scored 52 touchdowns in junior and senior years).

[Drewpac]

Reed ran the 40 in 4.49 seconds according to CNNSI. They make him sound like he could be a Cris Carter type of receiver.

[John from Hemet]

Here is my take on keeping Peerless Price....

- I think his agent is going to ask for a ton of cash....if he was really serious about negotiating fairly with the Bills they would have signed a extention already......

- I am always scared of guys that do ok in previous years and then have a great contract year.....also Peerless is a hothead who hurts the team right when they dont need it to happen....If I am going to pay that kind of money I want a quality veteran guy who knows how to keep his cool in pressure situations.....a leader.....

- Peerless is TOTALLY a product of his system....and I will equate this back to the Patriot days with Sean Jefferson....Sean was good receiver....but Drew Bledsoe made this guy look like a SUPERSTAR....then he moves on to a very average career.....Peerless is the product of a big, pocket passing QB, with a much much better offensive line in front of him....

I think we could get almost identical production from another speed burning quality veteran wideout in free agency for much, much less....and if we want to go to the super bowl we MUST improve the players on our defense....we have no number one pick so that improvement must come from free agency.....

[don137]

Many teams do not throw the long ball any more. Teams are throwing short passes now so speed receivers are not as en vogue as they were 10-15 years ago. This could hurt Price in FA but with GM's like Butler and Millen shelling out millions for average receivers you never know.

[SABURZFAN]

i hope the BILLS keep price but i think reed should only get better if price elects to go via free agency.i wouldn't be alarmed by reed's numbers for this year.they may not set the NFL on fire but let's remember that bledsoe has many weapons to throw at.in fact,let's break it down:


bledsoe-291 completions
van pelt- 2 completions



moulds-73 receptions
price- 72
henry- 40
centers-35
reed- 30
TE's- 35


reed is still learning the ropes as an NFL WR.if price leaves and reed steps in,reed could get 65-70 receptions.that may not be at the level where price is this year but it would be a step in the right direction.

[Voltron]

Also lets not forget Gilbride’s favorite package is called the "BIG" package. It consists of 2 WR 2TE and the 2 backs for maximum protection. Reed has not had a chance to really get out and play. I think when the ball is thrown at him he catches it and does not have the "dropsies" as much as JR or EM have at times. He has probably the best set of hands any rookie WR can ask for. Mark my words he is going to be a huge star. It took Moulds 3 years to break out. I have no problem waiting a few years for him to mature. I just don’t think it will take that long.

:gobills:

[ublinkwescore]

Josh Reed is exactly 2 days older then me.

[ublinkwescore]

But I'm 3 3/4 to 4 inches taller, and outweigh him by 70 lbs, but run the 40 in 7/10ths of a second slower - hmmm, maybe I should work on my speed, drop about 20 lbs, and then go try out for the Bills - I've got great hands, and can attack the football in the air like Moulds does - I just don't have those kind of hops that Moulds does.

[ublinkwescore]

And I'd be quite content to play for the league minimum, and slap Price around when he gets us a stupid penalty for losing his cool.
Not only that, if I managed to make it to my favorite team, you know I'd be playing with all the heart in the world.

Alright, I'm starting to dream too much now.

[Cntrygal]

Originally posted by ublinkwescore
And I'd be quite content to play for the league minimum, and slap Price around when he gets us a stupid penalty for losing his cool.
Not only that, if I managed to make it to my favorite team, you know I'd be playing with all the heart in the world.

Alright, I'm starting to dream too much now.

You're not allowed to wake up until you send season tix to all bfz members. :D And I'd be glad to help slap any player/coach around if they need an attitude game adjustment. Just let me know. ;)

[ublinkwescore]

Oh, I'm sooo sorry cntrygal, I woke up before I could send the season tix out. Go slap Jerry Gray, and Riemersma for dropping balls all the time that would get us a new set of downs - like he did in the second Jets game. Slap Kevin Gilbride too if he doesn't use Henry as a workhorse back this week.

[ublinkwescore]

Only problem I'd have is - well, the NFL wouldn't let you use St. Pauli Girl, or Heineken for a sports drink instead of Gatorade or poweraid would they?

If they do, Buffalo needs to sign me - just give me a couple months to get my weight down, and my speed up. I've got good hands too.

[WG]

Originally posted by Voltron
Also lets not forget Gilbride’s favorite package is called the "BIG" package. It consists of 2 WR 2TE and the 2 backs for maximum protection. Reed has not had a chance to really get out and play. I think when the ball is thrown at him he catches it and does not have the "dropsies" as much as JR or EM have at times. He has probably the best set of hands any rookie WR can ask for. Mark my words he is going to be a huge star. It took Moulds 3 years to break out. I have no problem waiting a few years for him to mature. I just don’t think it will take that long.

:gobills:

I agree w/ ya there Voltron. You too Tatonka.

Reed really hasn't gotten that many chances. He can only make plays when he's on the field. He doesn't control that. But when he has been in there, he's been our most reliable receiver barring perhaps Centers in terms of making the big catches when we absolutely need them the most w/o dropping them.

Price, while good, has certainly benefitted from this system. Also interesting are Price's #s over the first 6 games compared to the last 6;

1st 6: 43 catches, 614 yards, 5 TDs

2nd 6: 29 catches, 406 yards, 4 TDs

Of course Moulds' performance has slipped just as much.

I think we took the league by surprise early on and benefitted from a lack of our opponents' familiarity w/ our system, schemes, etc. Otherwise how can we explain such a dropoff. The last 4 games will determine whether there's any verity to that.

But if we use the last 6 games as a season average, then it works out to 78 catches, 1,082 yards, 11 TDs. Good TD totals even then. Nice totals otherwise for a #2. But indeed, I find it difficult to believe that many other WRs couldn't do likewise opposite Moulds, w/ decent TEs, and good receiving out of our backfield and solid rushing.

[HotRod]

IMO... Price wouldn't be quite as successful if most of the attention (esp in the beginning of the season) wasn't focused on Moulds. He (and his agent) would do well to remember that.

[TigerJ]

Say, ublink, Buffalo could be in the market for a TE next year too. Maybe that's where your niche is.

[WG]

It's a real shame they didn't use Moore more. NPI.

He may be good for another season or two, but he's got great hands and can block too. We'd be fine if he were our starter.

[venis2k1]

I think we are gonna draft a TE in the draft(depending on whats available), Drop JR, and Moore will be our starter next year while the new guy gets used to the system

[ublinkwescore]

Originally posted by TigerJ
Say, ublink, Buffalo could be in the market for a TE next year too. Maybe that's where your niche is.

Only problem is, I only get to play football like once a week - on the weekends.

[The Natrix]

I think labelling Price as a product of the system is very unfair. He is absolutely nasty....reminds me of a young Jerry Rice. The system doesn't teach you to fake guys out of there jock in the open field game in and game out. The system doesn't make you have blazing speed. Go home with your system shmystem crap.

Although I would probably pay him more than TD will, I still think if he goes our offense will still be good...

which brings me to Josh Reed. Yes, it doesn't take a freakin genious to recognize that Reed and Price are different types of receivers. However simply because this is true, it doesn't mean that Reed can't be an effective #2. We can try to get a speed guy at the #3 posistion (not that Price is just a speed guy - he is the total package)

Also, in direct response to the opening post, I don't think there are many people who think that Reed can immediately step in for Price. It is not like you have to have 2 elite receivers to be a contender.

Also...since you devised such a long post about how Reed can't hack it, what did you think of Price or Moulds after their rookie campaigns? Personally I liked Moulds do to a gut feeling, not so much as his play on the field (or lack there of)

I think Reed has done quite well for a Rookie and considering you would have thought it would have been hard for him to get much recognition when he is playing along side Eric Moulds and Peerless Price.

[venis2k1]

Originally posted by The Natrix
I think labelling Price as a product of the system is very unfair. He is absolutely nasty....reminds me of a young Jerry Rice. The system doesn't teach you to fake guys out of there jock in the open field game in and game out. The system doesn't make you have blazing speed. Go home with your system shmystem crap.

Although I would probably pay him more than TD will, I still think if he goes our offense will still be good...

which brings me to Josh Reed. Yes, it doesn't take a freakin genious to recognize that Reed and Price are different types of receivers. However simply because this is true, it doesn't mean that Reed can't be an effective #2. We can try to get a speed guy at the #3 posistion (not that Price is just a speed guy - he is the total package)

Also, in direct response to the opening post, I don't think there are many people who think that Reed can immediately step in for Price. It is not like you have to have 2 elite receivers to be a contender.

Also...since you devised such a long post about how Reed can't hack it, what did you think of Price or Moulds after there rookie campaign. Personally I liked Moulds do to a gut feeling, not so much as his play on the field (or lack there of)

I think Reed has done quite well for a Rookie and considering you would have thought it would have been hard for him to get much recognition when you are playing along side Eric Moulds and Peerless Price.

A young Jerry Rice???

[The Natrix]

Originally posted by venis2k1


A young Jerry Rice???

do I studder?

[The Natrix]

not saying he is as good as Rice.....yet, he just reminds me of him + more speed.

[fabolouspaul]

I like our offense the way it is right now. If we can afford to keep our offense intact and help fix the D, that would be Great!! I wouldn't mind if they would release Riemersma tho.

[ublinkwescore]

I agree, there's no room on this team for a primadonna who drops passes that hit him in the open field that has the nerve to want the big money. You gotta earn it through your play on the field. Price has earned a bigger contract - how big is hard to say.

[venis2k1]

Its hard to judge how good price really is because of the double teams that Moulds draws, one thing that i can say about price is that he has incredable YAC(yards after the catch)

[BillyT92679]

I love Peerless and hope he stays very much. But no one can blame him at all for leaving for a bigger pay day. He is a first rate wide receiver who pulls in chump change right now.

BTW, as an aside, there is so much anti-Peerless sentiment amongst Bills fans that it gets almost offensive. I almost feel he needs to go somewhere else to prove himself as an elite receiver because he will never quite get the respect he deserves in Western NY. He keeps improving, yet many people continually deride him in some fashion. If he flops, fine. But if he succeeds with the Bills or somewhere else, I hope people will recognize him for his achievements.

[BillyT92679]

Just an addendum to my previous post. Not all Bills fans dislike Peerless. Many do think very highly of him.

[ublinkwescore]

I hope to god that Peerless stays a Bill next year.

[Tatonka]

i like peerless as well.. i hope he sticks around.. i just would rather see him leave than pay him close to what moulds is getting.. imho he is not worth that much, and we have other needs.

[WCoastFin]

After re-evaluating J.Reed today I would say he sucks! this guy is so undersized and reminds me of a slower P.Warrick....he will be a sorry to mediocre WR if you ask me...not much better than Price's success.

[The_Philster]

Originally posted by BillyT92679
BTW, as an aside, there is so much anti-Peerless sentiment amongst Bills fans that it gets almost offensive. I almost feel he needs to go somewhere else to prove himself as an elite receiver because he will never quite get the respect he deserves in Western NY. He keeps improving, yet many people continually deride him in some fashion. If he flops, fine. But if he succeeds with the Bills or somewhere else, I hope people will recognize him for his achievements.

I really don't think he gets a lack of recognition. But, as is the case everywhere, people tend to think of the bad things the most....like giving up on that play against Pittsburgh when he could have saved a TD by Int.