Clump's Bills' Mock on KFFL

[clumping platelets]

http://www.kffl.com/communities/forums/Forum65/HTML/000238.html

On KFFL my username is rabal

Pre-draft assumptions: Tom Donahoe addresses concerns at LB via FA and retains our key FAs. Draft focus on depth and team speed.

Guarantee: Bills do NOT qualify for compensation picks this season

1st rd: Pick to NE for some guy named Bledsoe

2nd rd: CB Eugene Wilson (Illinois) 5'11" 185

Thoughts: My first choice would have been DE Haynes from Penn St. However, in April, he's likely to be a mid to late #1. He's an all-around DE and has the size to be an every down DE. That being said, I chose CB Wilson because really have depth concerns after Winfield and Clements. Granted, the lack of a consistent pass rush hinders DC Gray, but as a former GM here used to say "You can never have too many good CBs" and I concur. Again, depending on team needs going into the draft, it's likely that Wilson will not be available when the Bills pick, but in this mock, I felt he was clearly the best player available (BPA) and similar to the Josh Reed pick, represented true value as well as filling a legitimate need.

3rd rd: C Bruce Nelson (Iowa) 6'4" 305

Thoughts: I was hoping that LB D.J. Williams would be available once attempts to trade up were fruitless. I also attempted to trade down and add another 4th because of all the QBs still available. I also considered TE Robert Johnson of Auburn, but felt that I could draft a decent TE in rd 4, depending on what other players were available. I chose C Nelson because after watching him 4 or 5 times this year, that he was dominant in the middle of the OL. Bills' have depth concerns on the interior OL. Conaty is an UFA and I feel that Nelson is an upgrade over a physically limited Conaty. This also gives the Bills' more versatility on the OL as Nelson can play G as well.

4th rd: TE Dallas Clark (Iowa) 6'4" 255

Thoughts: I believe, unfortunately, that it is a foregone conclusion that Jay Riemersma and his $3.5 million salary are gone at the end of the season. His productivity doesn't support such a salary. Maybe he will be willing to restructure and/or extend his deal, but I feel he will seek his fortunes elsewell. That being said, I felt Dallas Clark was an outstanding 4th rd pick and represented solid value at that point. He's primarily a receiving TE but is a willing blocker, something that can be taught.

Mock ends

Projection of later rds

5th-7th rds: Look primarily towards upgrading speed on special teams with players that can also help depth. LB and S would lead the pack but also a young RB wouldn't hurt because Bryson is UFA and Morris is RFA. Morris is likely to receive minimum tender and would only yield a 5th rd pick, thus he would be an attractive RFA to teams needing RB help. A DL prospect that is versatile or even a tall WR to help in the redzone and help to knock "Hail Mary's" down LOL

This is my first mock and I'm likely to do many more. I'll get y'all updated :)


:feedback:

[SABURZFAN]

no DL help???they good ones must have got taken.

[clumping platelets]

Read my assumptions in the first post ;)

[venis2k1]

what do you think of DT Colin Cole out of Iowa, he is my prediction for what we use or 2nd rounder for.

[clumping platelets]

His stock has been rising and 2nd rd wouldn't be too high as of now. I just think that TD will address concerns on D via FA because that would potentially make the D better sooner and thus make the team more competitive overall. The lack of a #1 really makes the 2003 draft one for depth as opposed to a quick fix

[German]

Morning Clump,

I have a question. How do you see our RB core for next year.
Bryson and Morris are FA's next year, right?

Do you think there's a chance of them bringing Curtis Alexander back?

[venis2k1]

I would guess morris coming back, maybe Bryson depending on what he wants. As for CA i wouldn't look for this guy to make too big of an impact on the team if we did bring him back.

[DraftBoy]

Why a CB in round 2??

Also I like Boss Bailey in round 2 to fall to us, maybe Tony Gilbert is rd 3.

[Romes]

you know the season is over when...mock drafts start to appear on the site. :D

And now the 4 month wait for the draft begins :woeisme:

[iceblizzard69]

I think the Bills have to many holes to fill to draft a nickel back with their first pick. I think they have other bigger concerns. We took a nickel back with our first rounder in 2000 but it was because that was the position that just killed us. You guys really need help at OLB and the defensive line.

[Tatonka]

agree with ice.

[DraftBoy]

Boss Bailey anyone??

[TigerJ]

If Ice and Tatonka will go back and reread Clumps first few posts you will see he assumes those more immediate needs will be filled via free agents. You can disagree with his assumptions if you want, but if one accepts them, depth at DB is a reasonable place to go with a second round pick. Hey, Clumpy, if your mock goes past round four, keep a lookout for Ryan Hoag, WR from Gustavus Adolphus College. He's got size, speed, athleticism, a great attitude and is said to be more developed than his Division III pedigree would lead one to expect. I'm assuming Price bolts the Bills for free agency and the Bills need to pick up a developmental project at WR.

[clumping platelets]

Originally posted by Winfield_26
Why a CB in round 2??

Also I like Boss Bailey in round 2 to fall to us, maybe Tony Gilbert is rd 3.


Did you READ the first post? Did you look at the players already taken when I picked? ;)

[clumping platelets]

Originally posted by German
Morning Clump,

I have a question. How do you see our RB core for next year.
Bryson and Morris are FA's next year, right?

Do you think there's a chance of them bringing Curtis Alexander back?

Bryson: His injury history makes him a much easier re-sign. He will receive no more than the league minimum with incentives. Bills could re-sign him, but I would only do so if he's still UFA at the start of training camp, but prefer Bills draft a young RB

Morris: As I stated in the first post, he's likely to receive minimum qualifying offer for RFA and the compensation would be only a 5th. He could be an attractive addition for a team needing a solid #2 RB and competition in the backfield. I want him to stay!

Alexander: Most likely not in the Bills future

[clumping platelets]

Originally posted by iceblizzard69
I think the Bills have to many holes to fill to draft a nickel back with their first pick. I think they have other bigger concerns. We took a nickel back with our first rounder in 2000 but it was because that was the position that just killed us. You guys really need help at OLB and the defensive line.


Once again....did you READ my first post :rolleyes:

Why can't DL and LB be addressed in FA? The draft is unlikely to produce starters when you don't draft until mid 2nd rd :rolleyes:

[Bert102176]

all we really need on the DL is a DT I think the DE's we have are good, and I hope we can resign Chidi.

[clumping platelets]

I do not think that re-signing Chidi will be much of a problem. It's likely that the market for him will be like this past off-season. He's worth no more than vets minimum.

[DraftBoy]

In a mock draft though why would you assume any of that? The point of the draft was to most help your team assuming nothing atleast thats the way I look at them. If Im grading your picks you get a: D

You drafted for Depth not immediate help, this in no way helps the Bills next season except if Wilson can beat out Watson for the Nickle spot.

[Earthquake Enyart]

I think we should take a DL or LB. Not a nickle back.

[John from Hemet]

I think that signing Marcus Jones and paying for his surgury is a very good start...he is a better talent then anyone we currently have on this roster including Schrobel....I would ask Ahanatue to stay as a reserve player but take a pay cut...

I would not go DB with our 2nd round pick unless he is a 1st talent....we need a outside linebacker or a quality run stuffing defensive linemen......

I myself would take a look at a veteran DB....there seems to be a lot of teams having success with doing that this year.......

[TigerJ]

I think the free agent market will be interesting this off season. The experts are predicting slimmer pickings than usual. Takeo Spikes would be a great pickup if we could get him, but TD doesn't usually like to compete with a lot of other teams to the point where he has to shell out mega bucks to get a player and Spikes is the kind of player that teams get into bidding wars over.

On the D-line everyone seems to be underachieving right now. Even Pat Williams is failing to make big plays. On paper they are all solid if not spectacular, except that Schobel is said to lack an inside move. That limits his effectiveness severely. Marcus Jones should be a big upgrade.

Ahanotu is OK, but there are a lot of LDEs around the league who are a lot better.

I don't know what to think of Ron Edwards. He should be pretty good but you don't hear his name called that much. Is he just an underachieving player or is there something about this defence that makes good players invisible, and if we went out and spent a bunch of cap dollars on a pricey DT, would he disappear too?

Eddie Robinson is in my opinion the most obvious upgrade the team needs to make. He's just too slow to make the plays he's being asked to make. But if Spikes ends up being out of TDs price range, I don't know if there's really any other LBs on the free agent market who can start effectively in this market. Colvin has done damage for the Bears D, but he really plays Newman's spot. We can't replace Robinson with him. Frankly, it looks to me like the Bills might have better luck finding a Robinson replacement in the draft than in free agency.

We'll just have to wait and see what TD comes up with I guess.

[LVGrown]

Originally posted by Winfield_26
Why a CB in round 2??

Also I like Boss Bailey in round 2 to fall to us, maybe Tony Gilbert is rd 3.

2 little words ----- CHRIS WATSON! :drool: need anything else be said!!!

Erin:gobills:

[clumping platelets]

Originally posted by Winfield_26
In a mock draft though why would you assume any of that? The point of the draft was to most help your team assuming nothing atleast thats the way I look at them. If Im grading your picks you get a: D

You drafted for Depth not immediate help, this in no way helps the Bills next season except if Wilson can beat out Watson for the Nickle spot.


In a mock draft without a #1, why would I assume that TD does NOTHING to improve the team in FA?

It's called draft strategy! Targeting a position is why BUTTler took Flowers in rd 1 or Tillman in rd 2.

Our #3 CB is a major weak spot and if the player rated the highest on your draft board is a CB, you don't reach for a player at another position rated lower. Many people were :scratch: their heads when the Bills chose Josh Reed. Why? Well, we have Moulds and Price and McDaniel and Germany. Well, it ended up that both McDaniel and Germany were both scrubs and depth WAS needed AND Price is UFA after this season. That's why the Bills took Reed over some defensive players and also because they may have rated Reed as a #1 pick. Same reasoning with taking a CB in rd 2: Bills lack quality depth behind Winfield and Clements and Winfield is UFA after 2003. What happens next season if Winfield gets injured? You want Watson again?

Also, without a #1, the Bills are hamstrung when it comes to manuerving for draft position.

Based upon the assumption that TD adds help at LB and DL in FA, the draft is sound. The only question: Rating the players in November...6 months before the draft and assuming which underclassmen will or will not enter the draft early.

[DraftBoy]

yea draft strategy to help the team immediately, nickle backs are a dime a dozen, but I do agree its still Nov.

[clumping platelets]

You cannot expect immediate impact from 2nd rd or lower draft choices. If a player drafted late surprises...great. It's all about value and needs.

[DraftBoy]

2nd rd picks are expected to contribute the season after they are drafted in my opinion recent examples: Josh Reed, Peerless Price, Sam Cowart.

[venis2k1]

If there is a good TE in the second round i would like him to get some looks too.

[DraftBoy]

why? we have JR and Dave Moore, no guarantees JR will be back but at the moment no signs that he wont be. As for why we choose Josh Reed in the 2nd round of last years draft when we had McDaniel, and Germany, which are crap and better than crap, we had no true #3 wideout. The other two blow, and I was in complete support of the decision.

[BADTHINGSMAN]

The Bills still have Jay Reimersma on contract after this year. So why just drop him? If the Bills wanna get rid of him how about a trade? Im sure the Bills could get a 2nd round pick for him.

[TigerJ]

Jay gets a pretty hefty salary and hasn't had the production in a couple years to justify it. Cutting Jay at this point in his contract doesn't create too much in the way of dead cap dollars and the cap room created could allow Buffalo to replace him with someone who is a better value. I'm not saying Buffalo will, but if they do, that's the rationale for cutting him.

[Dozerdog]

Originally posted by silent_one
The Bills still have Jay Reimersma on contract after this year. So why just drop him? If the Bills wanna get rid of him how about a trade? Im sure the Bills could get a 2nd round pick for him.

No one in their right mind would trade to get a TE making that money, with only 1 year left on his contract. Maybe for Gonzales or Shockey, but not to many others come to mind. Sharpe is a better TE in this league, and he's been released twice for $$ cap reasons. Others will follow.

Darcy Rieger is a HOCKEY GM, and he's the only one dumb enough to cough up a #2 for JR.

[clumping platelets]

Originally posted by Winfield_26
why? we have JR and Dave Moore, no guarantees JR will be back but at the moment no signs that he wont be. As for why we choose Josh Reed in the 2nd round of last years draft when we had McDaniel, and Germany, which are crap and better than crap, we had no true #3 wideout. The other two blow, and I was in complete support of the decision.


This is exactly why I chose a CB........who do we have after Winfield and Clements? Again, this is justified IF my assumption of TD addressing needs on the DL & LB in fa are correct.

[lordofgun]

Clump is wunderbar!

[clumping platelets]

:peck:

[The_Philster]

:scared:

[Herdwatcher]

4th rd: TE Dallas Clark (Iowa) 6'4" 255

Thoughts: I believe, unfortunately, that it is a foregone conclusion that Jay Riemersma and his $3.5 million salary are gone at the end of the season. His productivity doesn't support such a salary. Maybe he will be willing to restructure and/or extend his deal, but I feel he will seek his fortunes elsewell. That being said, I felt Dallas Clark was an outstanding 4th rd pick and represented solid value at that point. He's primarily a receiving TE but is a willing blocker, something that can be taught.


Isn't that just about what was said on Jay Riemersma? Great hands runs routes well, just needs to work on his blocking. They probably said he was a willing blocker. It never materialized, the Bills' offense didn't use the tight end like projected this season, why is a mystery. All I'm saying is, I don't think a 4th round, third pick for the Bills sould be a tight end. Although I haven't done any research on the guy, so he could be a perfect pick at that point for the Bills. It's too hard to have both, a TE that both catches and blocks well. Since the team didn't use the TE like thought, I would go after a known blocker

I'm not knocking anything about your Mock. Pretty cool if you ask me, I just think the team needs a blocker at tight end this time around.

[clumping platelets]

Dallas Clark was just named the best TE in college

All this stuff changes once the combines and workouts start.

[DraftBoy]

behind Winfield, and Clements we have:
Watson
Brooks
Bostic

2 of these guys have been given a chance and the other has made some plays and looked like an ass on others. I still dont like the CB pick in round 2 when hes not even assured to be the #3 guy.