clumping platelets
04-23-2005, 07:32 AM
Here is my only effort to predict the first three rounds of the upcoming 2005 NFL Annual Selection Meeting. Outside of the actual games, the draft is one of my "vacations". I haven't missed watching the draft since 1985 when I was down in San Antonio at Ft. Sam Houston going through the Army's lab School. I used to come home on leave when I was stationed at Ft. Polk so I could watch the draft. To me, draft weekend is a holiday!
I see the draft for what it truly is: a reflection of future needs. Rarely should a team utilize the draft for short term goals of improving the team. Free agency and/or trades are the best options for those short term needs. Each year, 256 players are drafted and approximately 10% of those picks make substantive contributions for the entire season. Another 15% make contributions for portions of the season. The other 75% end up as developmental types on either the roster or practice squad or are released, cut, and/or waived. Thus, immediate help is rarely found om draft day.
The draft should be used to address concerns a team has in the future. Salary cap, age, future free agency, and draft stregth are all considerations come draft day. It has been expressed that this years draft is weaker than in the recent few years. It's is qualified by draft experts statements of the Bills 2004 1st rd pick (20th overall) QB J.P. Losman would have been in competition for #1 overall this year.
Players that could be traded and affect first day rds: OL L. J. Shelton (AZ), RB Travis Henry (Buf), CB Pat Surtain (Mia) -traded to KC, DE Darren Howard (NO), DT Corey Simon (Phil), CB Ronde Barber (TB), QB Chris Simms (TB), DE Simeon Rice (TB), WR Rod Gardner (Wash), or one of the Vikes RBs
Pre-draft prediction: Bills finalize trade with Bucs for RB Henry with swap of 2nd rd picks on Friday.
While working on this, the Surtain to KC deal was reported and was used in the mock.
I originally planned on included detailed reasoning, but just not enough time in the day :mad:
Round 1
1,1 - San Francisco - WR Braylon Edwards (Michigan)
1,2 - Tampa Bay (MIA) - QB Alex Smith (Utah)
Bucs trade #5, #55, 3rd 2006 for #2
1,3 - Minnesota (CLV) - WR Mike Williams (USC)
Vikes trade #7, #49, #80 for #3 and #191
1,4 - Chicago - RB Cedric Benson (Texas)
1,5 - Washington (TB/Mia) - CB Carlos Rogers (Auburn)
Skins trade #9, #25, 7th 2006 for #5 and #104
1,6 - Tennessee - DB Antrel Rolle (Miami, Fla)
1,7 - Cleveland (Oak/Min) LB Derrick Johnson (Texas)
1,8 - Arizona - RB Carnell Williams (Auburn)
1,9 - Miami (WSH) - RB Ronnie Brown (Auburn)
1,10 - Detroit - DE Shawne Merriman (Maryland)
1,11 - New Orleans (DAL) - S/LB Thomas Davis (Georgia)
Saints trade #16 #118, and DE Howard for #11 and #109
1,12 - San Diego (NYG) - WR Mark Clayton (Oklahoma)
1,13 - Houston - OT Alex Barron (Florida St)
1,14 - Jacksonville (CAR) - CB Pacman Jones (West Virginia)
Jags trade #21, #52, 5th 2006 for #14 and #115
1,15 - Kansas City - WR Troy Williamson (South Carolina)
1,16 - Dallas (NO) - OT Jammal Brown (Oklahoma)
1,17 - San Francisco (CIN) - QB Aaron Rodgers (California)
49ers trade #33, #65, 2nd & 5th in 2006 for #17 and #83
1,18 - Minnesota - DE Erasmus James (Wisconsin)
1,19 - St. Louis - WR/TE Matt Jones (Arkansas)
1,20 - Dallas (BUF) - DE/LB Demarcus Ware (Troy St)
1,21 - Carolina (JAC) - DT Shaun Cody (USC)
1,22 - Baltimore - DL Marcus Spears (LSU)
1,23 - Cleveland (SEA) - QB Jason Campbell (Auburn)
Browns trade #34, #80, 5th in 2006 for #23
1,24 - Green Bay - LB Barrett Ruud (Nebraska)
1,25 - Miami (Den/Wsh) - WR Roddy White (UAB)
1,26 - Oakland (NYJ) - DB Marlin Jackson (Michigan)
1,27 - Atlanta - DB Brodney Pool (Oklahoma)
1,28 - San Diego - DE Matt Roth (Iowa)
1,29 - Indianapolis - DT Travis Johnson (Florida St)
1,30 - Pittsburgh - TE Heath Miller (Virginia)
1,31 - Philadelphia - LB Odell Thurman (Georgia)
1,32 - New England - DE David Pollack (Georgia)
Round 2
2,33 - Cincinnati (SF) - DT Luis Castillo (Northwestern)
2,34 - Seattle (CLV) - C/G David Baas (Michigan)
2,35 - Phiadelphia (Mia) - WR Reggie Brown (Georgia)
2,36 - Buffalo (TB) - C Chris Spencer (Mississippi)
2,37 - Tennessee - OT Khalif Barnes (Washington)
2,38 - Oakland - CB Justin Miller (Clemson)
2,39 - Chicago - G Elton Brown (Virginia)
2,40 - New Orleans (WSH) - LB Kevin Burnett (Tennessee)
2,41 - Detroit - TE Alex Smith (Stanford)
2,42 - Dallas - PK Mike Nugent (Ohio St)
2,43 - Green Bay (NYG) - QB Charlie Frye (Akron)
Packers trade #51 and #125 for #43
2,44 - Arizona - CB Fabian Washington (Nebraska)
2,45 - Carolina - RB J. J. Arrington (California)
2,46 - Miami (KC) - CB Corey Webster (LSU)
2,47 - NY Jets (Hou/Oak) - DB Ernest Shazor (Michigan)
2,48 - Cincinnati - DB Donte Nicholson (Oklahoma)
2,49 - New England (MIN/CLV) - WR Vincent Jackson (No. Colorado)
Patriots trade #64, #133, and #145 for #49 and 6th in 2006
2,50 - St. Louis - DE Dan Cody (USC)
2,51 - NY Giants (NO/GB) - DL Chris Canty (Virginia)
2,52 - Carolina (JAC) - OT Adam Terry (Syracuse)
2,53 - Baltimore - OL Marcus Johnson (Mississippi)
2,54 - Seattle - DB Josh Bullocks (Nebraska)
2,55 - Miami (Buf/TB) - LB Darryl Blackstock (Virginia)
2,56 - Denver - DT Mike Patterson (USC)
2,57 - NY Jets - CB Stanford Routt (Houston)
2,58 - Green Bay - DE Justin Tuck (Notre Dame)
2,59 - Atlanta - DT Attiyah Ellison (Missouri)
2,60 - Indianapolis - CB Bryant McFadden (Florida St)
2,61 - San Diego - OT Todd Herremans (Saginaw Valley St)
2,62 - Pittsburgh - LB Matt McCoy (San Diego St)
2,63 - Philadelphia - OT Michael Roos (E. Washington)
2,64 - Cleveland (NE) - DB Sean Considine (Iowa)
Round 3
3,65 - Cincinnati (SF) - WR Fred Gibson (Georgia)
3,66 - St. Louis (MIA) - LB Jordan Beck (Cal Poly SLO)
3,67 - Cleveland - G Chris Kemoeatu (Utah)
3,68 - Tennessee - WR Terrence Murphy (Texas A&M)
3,69 - Oakland - DT Anttaj Hawthorne (Wisconsin)
3,70 - Miami (Chi) - C Ben Wilkerson (LSU)
3,71 - Tampa Bay - LB Channing Crowder (Florida)
3,72 - Detroit - DE/LB David McMillan (Kansas)
3,73 - Houston (DAL) - CB Domonique Foxworth (Maryland)
3,74 - NY Giants - RB Cedric Houston (Tennessee)
3,75 - Arizona - QB Adrian McPherson (Florida St)
3,76 - Denver (WSH) - DT Jonathan Babineaux (Iowa)
3,77 - Phiadelphia (KC) - WR Jerome Mathis (Hampton)
3,78 - Oakland(Hou) - LB Marcus Lawrence (South Carolina)
3,79 - Carolina - QB Kyle Orton (Purdue)
3,80 - Seattle (MIN/CLV) - LB Alfred Fincher (UConn)
3,81 - St. Louis - CB Stanley Wilson (Stanford)
3,82 - New Orleans - WR Roscoe Parrish (Miami, Fla)
3,83 - San Francisco (CIN) - OT Ray Willis (Florida St)
3,84 - Baltimore - CB/KR Antonio Perkins (Oklahoma)
3,85 - Seattle - WR Mark Bradley (Oklahoma)
3,86 - Cleveland (BUF) - NT Sione Pouha (Utah)
Browns trade #103 and #133 for #86
3,87 - Jacksonville - RB Ciatrick Fason (Florida)
3,88 - NY Jets - C/G Jason Brown (North Carolina)
3,89 - Green Bay - CB Ronald Bartell (Howard)
3,90 - Atlanta - OL David Stewart (Mississippi St)
3,91 - Tampa Bay (SD) - OL Logan Mankins (Fresno St)
3,92 - Indianapolis - WR Chris Henry (West Virginia)
3,93 - Pittsburgh - DT Anthony Bryant (Alabama)
3,94 - Philadelphia - RB Marion Barber III (Minnesota)
3,95 - Arizona (NE) - P Dustin Colquitt (Tennessee)
3,96 - Tennessee (NFL) - CB Eric Green (Virginia Tech)
3,97 - Denver (NFL) - OL Joe Berger (Michigan Tech)
3,98 - Seattle (NFL) - RB Eric Shelton (Louisville)
3,99 - Kansas City (NFL) - DB Jerome Carter (Florida St)
3,100 - New England (NFL) - OT Pete McMahon (Iowa)
3,101 - Denver (NFL) - WR Roydell Williams (Tulane)
**Edit**
Bills Mock
2,36 - C Chris Spencer (Mississippi)
4,103 - WR Brandon Jones (Oklahoma)
4,122 - CB Travis Daniels (LSU)
4,133 - DE George Gause (South Carolina)
5,156 - LB Derek Wake (Penn St)
6,197 - DT Derreck Robinson (Iowa)
7,236 - FB Kevin Dudley (Michigan)
I see the draft for what it truly is: a reflection of future needs. Rarely should a team utilize the draft for short term goals of improving the team. Free agency and/or trades are the best options for those short term needs. Each year, 256 players are drafted and approximately 10% of those picks make substantive contributions for the entire season. Another 15% make contributions for portions of the season. The other 75% end up as developmental types on either the roster or practice squad or are released, cut, and/or waived. Thus, immediate help is rarely found om draft day.
The draft should be used to address concerns a team has in the future. Salary cap, age, future free agency, and draft stregth are all considerations come draft day. It has been expressed that this years draft is weaker than in the recent few years. It's is qualified by draft experts statements of the Bills 2004 1st rd pick (20th overall) QB J.P. Losman would have been in competition for #1 overall this year.
Players that could be traded and affect first day rds: OL L. J. Shelton (AZ), RB Travis Henry (Buf), CB Pat Surtain (Mia) -traded to KC, DE Darren Howard (NO), DT Corey Simon (Phil), CB Ronde Barber (TB), QB Chris Simms (TB), DE Simeon Rice (TB), WR Rod Gardner (Wash), or one of the Vikes RBs
Pre-draft prediction: Bills finalize trade with Bucs for RB Henry with swap of 2nd rd picks on Friday.
While working on this, the Surtain to KC deal was reported and was used in the mock.
I originally planned on included detailed reasoning, but just not enough time in the day :mad:
Round 1
1,1 - San Francisco - WR Braylon Edwards (Michigan)
1,2 - Tampa Bay (MIA) - QB Alex Smith (Utah)
Bucs trade #5, #55, 3rd 2006 for #2
1,3 - Minnesota (CLV) - WR Mike Williams (USC)
Vikes trade #7, #49, #80 for #3 and #191
1,4 - Chicago - RB Cedric Benson (Texas)
1,5 - Washington (TB/Mia) - CB Carlos Rogers (Auburn)
Skins trade #9, #25, 7th 2006 for #5 and #104
1,6 - Tennessee - DB Antrel Rolle (Miami, Fla)
1,7 - Cleveland (Oak/Min) LB Derrick Johnson (Texas)
1,8 - Arizona - RB Carnell Williams (Auburn)
1,9 - Miami (WSH) - RB Ronnie Brown (Auburn)
1,10 - Detroit - DE Shawne Merriman (Maryland)
1,11 - New Orleans (DAL) - S/LB Thomas Davis (Georgia)
Saints trade #16 #118, and DE Howard for #11 and #109
1,12 - San Diego (NYG) - WR Mark Clayton (Oklahoma)
1,13 - Houston - OT Alex Barron (Florida St)
1,14 - Jacksonville (CAR) - CB Pacman Jones (West Virginia)
Jags trade #21, #52, 5th 2006 for #14 and #115
1,15 - Kansas City - WR Troy Williamson (South Carolina)
1,16 - Dallas (NO) - OT Jammal Brown (Oklahoma)
1,17 - San Francisco (CIN) - QB Aaron Rodgers (California)
49ers trade #33, #65, 2nd & 5th in 2006 for #17 and #83
1,18 - Minnesota - DE Erasmus James (Wisconsin)
1,19 - St. Louis - WR/TE Matt Jones (Arkansas)
1,20 - Dallas (BUF) - DE/LB Demarcus Ware (Troy St)
1,21 - Carolina (JAC) - DT Shaun Cody (USC)
1,22 - Baltimore - DL Marcus Spears (LSU)
1,23 - Cleveland (SEA) - QB Jason Campbell (Auburn)
Browns trade #34, #80, 5th in 2006 for #23
1,24 - Green Bay - LB Barrett Ruud (Nebraska)
1,25 - Miami (Den/Wsh) - WR Roddy White (UAB)
1,26 - Oakland (NYJ) - DB Marlin Jackson (Michigan)
1,27 - Atlanta - DB Brodney Pool (Oklahoma)
1,28 - San Diego - DE Matt Roth (Iowa)
1,29 - Indianapolis - DT Travis Johnson (Florida St)
1,30 - Pittsburgh - TE Heath Miller (Virginia)
1,31 - Philadelphia - LB Odell Thurman (Georgia)
1,32 - New England - DE David Pollack (Georgia)
Round 2
2,33 - Cincinnati (SF) - DT Luis Castillo (Northwestern)
2,34 - Seattle (CLV) - C/G David Baas (Michigan)
2,35 - Phiadelphia (Mia) - WR Reggie Brown (Georgia)
2,36 - Buffalo (TB) - C Chris Spencer (Mississippi)
2,37 - Tennessee - OT Khalif Barnes (Washington)
2,38 - Oakland - CB Justin Miller (Clemson)
2,39 - Chicago - G Elton Brown (Virginia)
2,40 - New Orleans (WSH) - LB Kevin Burnett (Tennessee)
2,41 - Detroit - TE Alex Smith (Stanford)
2,42 - Dallas - PK Mike Nugent (Ohio St)
2,43 - Green Bay (NYG) - QB Charlie Frye (Akron)
Packers trade #51 and #125 for #43
2,44 - Arizona - CB Fabian Washington (Nebraska)
2,45 - Carolina - RB J. J. Arrington (California)
2,46 - Miami (KC) - CB Corey Webster (LSU)
2,47 - NY Jets (Hou/Oak) - DB Ernest Shazor (Michigan)
2,48 - Cincinnati - DB Donte Nicholson (Oklahoma)
2,49 - New England (MIN/CLV) - WR Vincent Jackson (No. Colorado)
Patriots trade #64, #133, and #145 for #49 and 6th in 2006
2,50 - St. Louis - DE Dan Cody (USC)
2,51 - NY Giants (NO/GB) - DL Chris Canty (Virginia)
2,52 - Carolina (JAC) - OT Adam Terry (Syracuse)
2,53 - Baltimore - OL Marcus Johnson (Mississippi)
2,54 - Seattle - DB Josh Bullocks (Nebraska)
2,55 - Miami (Buf/TB) - LB Darryl Blackstock (Virginia)
2,56 - Denver - DT Mike Patterson (USC)
2,57 - NY Jets - CB Stanford Routt (Houston)
2,58 - Green Bay - DE Justin Tuck (Notre Dame)
2,59 - Atlanta - DT Attiyah Ellison (Missouri)
2,60 - Indianapolis - CB Bryant McFadden (Florida St)
2,61 - San Diego - OT Todd Herremans (Saginaw Valley St)
2,62 - Pittsburgh - LB Matt McCoy (San Diego St)
2,63 - Philadelphia - OT Michael Roos (E. Washington)
2,64 - Cleveland (NE) - DB Sean Considine (Iowa)
Round 3
3,65 - Cincinnati (SF) - WR Fred Gibson (Georgia)
3,66 - St. Louis (MIA) - LB Jordan Beck (Cal Poly SLO)
3,67 - Cleveland - G Chris Kemoeatu (Utah)
3,68 - Tennessee - WR Terrence Murphy (Texas A&M)
3,69 - Oakland - DT Anttaj Hawthorne (Wisconsin)
3,70 - Miami (Chi) - C Ben Wilkerson (LSU)
3,71 - Tampa Bay - LB Channing Crowder (Florida)
3,72 - Detroit - DE/LB David McMillan (Kansas)
3,73 - Houston (DAL) - CB Domonique Foxworth (Maryland)
3,74 - NY Giants - RB Cedric Houston (Tennessee)
3,75 - Arizona - QB Adrian McPherson (Florida St)
3,76 - Denver (WSH) - DT Jonathan Babineaux (Iowa)
3,77 - Phiadelphia (KC) - WR Jerome Mathis (Hampton)
3,78 - Oakland(Hou) - LB Marcus Lawrence (South Carolina)
3,79 - Carolina - QB Kyle Orton (Purdue)
3,80 - Seattle (MIN/CLV) - LB Alfred Fincher (UConn)
3,81 - St. Louis - CB Stanley Wilson (Stanford)
3,82 - New Orleans - WR Roscoe Parrish (Miami, Fla)
3,83 - San Francisco (CIN) - OT Ray Willis (Florida St)
3,84 - Baltimore - CB/KR Antonio Perkins (Oklahoma)
3,85 - Seattle - WR Mark Bradley (Oklahoma)
3,86 - Cleveland (BUF) - NT Sione Pouha (Utah)
Browns trade #103 and #133 for #86
3,87 - Jacksonville - RB Ciatrick Fason (Florida)
3,88 - NY Jets - C/G Jason Brown (North Carolina)
3,89 - Green Bay - CB Ronald Bartell (Howard)
3,90 - Atlanta - OL David Stewart (Mississippi St)
3,91 - Tampa Bay (SD) - OL Logan Mankins (Fresno St)
3,92 - Indianapolis - WR Chris Henry (West Virginia)
3,93 - Pittsburgh - DT Anthony Bryant (Alabama)
3,94 - Philadelphia - RB Marion Barber III (Minnesota)
3,95 - Arizona (NE) - P Dustin Colquitt (Tennessee)
3,96 - Tennessee (NFL) - CB Eric Green (Virginia Tech)
3,97 - Denver (NFL) - OL Joe Berger (Michigan Tech)
3,98 - Seattle (NFL) - RB Eric Shelton (Louisville)
3,99 - Kansas City (NFL) - DB Jerome Carter (Florida St)
3,100 - New England (NFL) - OT Pete McMahon (Iowa)
3,101 - Denver (NFL) - WR Roydell Williams (Tulane)
**Edit**
Bills Mock
2,36 - C Chris Spencer (Mississippi)
4,103 - WR Brandon Jones (Oklahoma)
4,122 - CB Travis Daniels (LSU)
4,133 - DE George Gause (South Carolina)
5,156 - LB Derek Wake (Penn St)
6,197 - DT Derreck Robinson (Iowa)
7,236 - FB Kevin Dudley (Michigan)