Playoff Scenario

[Akhippo]

Im not a number cruncher, but my best scenario for the Bills to make the playoffs is.
NE winning out, thus beating the Jets and Miami
Miami losing out. Root for Minny.
Of course Buffalo winning twice.
Cleveland & Baltimore losing once.
Oakland winning out, a win today would of been really sweet,but o well
that would give a loss to KC & Denver.
KC has to beat SD
AZ has to beat Denver.


And its looking like the one loss of Buffalos that is coming back to haunt them is the Denver game. Any loss is bad, but if we beat Denver, everything else the same. Theyre one game closer to Miami, so you dont have to depend on Minny, and they have to tie breaker against them, so you dont have to depend on AZ. Hindsight and shoulda coulda woulda. Its like a combo lock, if any one of these dont hit, NO PLAYOFFS.

[Dolphinatic]

So long as we're talking playoff scenarios...

A Fins win and a Colts loss next weekend clinches a wild card for Miami.

Just thought you'd want to know.

[Novacane]

Lets just hope we win our games.

[Akhippo]

Im sorry Dolphinatic, you must of misinterpreted, and actually thought I cared.

[PA Season Ticket Holder]

We're not going to the playoffs. With a win in the home opener and a split between the Broncos/Chiefs game we would most likely be in the playoffs even if we lost to the Packers this weekend.

We're very close. Hopefully we can get the FA's we need next year.

Unless a proven coach wants to come here I say we keep GW. Like him or not we should get 8 wins this year and that's enough to keep him around. Lets get some defensive players to fill some holes and we'll be playoff contenders next year. I think in 2004 is where we should have a Superbowl caliber team. We'll have 2 more drafts and more experience with the younger players.

Our younger players will be coming into their own next year and the year after. Add in some FA pickups and our window of opportunity will run between 2003-2005

[TigerJ]

I agree with PA Season Ticket Holder. Buffalo will not be going to the playoffs, But until they are mathematically eliminated, we can at least consider the possiblility.

Miami's win today eliminates the possibility of Buffalo winning the division (which 2 weeks ago was their most realistic chance of making the playoffs because of the tiebreaker breakdown. Even if Miami loses next week and NE loses tomorrow night and next week Buffalo can't win the division because in the final game they play each other. The only way NE can finish worse than Buffalo is by losing out. Otherwise they own the first tiebreaker on Buffalo. But if they lose out then Miami can't finish worse than 10-6.

The wild card race is an extreme long shot. Buffalo's wild card competition consist of Miami (if NE wins the division), NE if Miami wins the division, all four teams in the AFC West, Tennessee (assuming the Colts win the AFC South). There are a couple others who have not been elliminated, but Buffalo has a better chance than them so I won't worry about them. In all scenarios it is a given the Buffalo has to win out.

NE is the preferable division winner because if Buffalo and Miami finish with the same record, Buffalo wins the tiebreaker for a wild card spot. Therefore we want Miami to lose out and NE to win out. That also helps finish off Tennessee. To be eliminated we want Tennessee to lose to NE and either of their remaining games (while Buffalo wins out). Oakland will almost certainly win a wild card spot if they don't win the division and they hold a tiebreaker on Buffalo, so we want them to win out to take their division. Their remaining games are both division contests, with Denver and KC. Denver needs to lose both their remaining games (Oakland and Arizona) to finish behind Buffalo in the wild card race because of the tiebreaker. KC needs to lose one of their remaining games (San Diego and Oakland) to finish worse than Buffalo. It's preferable that their win comes agains San Diego since that hurts San Diego's position. San Diego's remaing games are vs KC and Seattle. Because Buffalo beat them today we have the first tiebreaker if both finish 9-7 so we can afford San Diego winning one of their final two. Buffalo can make the playoffs if one of those projected scenarios fails to happen. If two fail then we're out. Don't hold your breath. That doesn't give us very good odds.

[Typ0]

Any game you lose is tough but I think we have to go back to week one and the game against the Chiefs. We should have won both those games on each day we were the better team but the final score didn't reflect it. As inept as our defense is we had some real opportunities to make a statement this season that we were on the way back. If we have just one of those games we are at 8-6 right now and right in the thick of things. I know its shoulda coulda woulda but I also remember a group of us standing there after the Jets game looking at each other saying that loss was going to bite us in the ass because we beat ourselves.

[Gunzlingr]

It is a pipe dream to think we are playoff bound this year.

[Dolphinatic]

Originally posted by Akhippo
Im sorry Dolphinatic, you must of misinterpreted, and actually thought I cared.

OK, just to be gracious about it, I’ll look at the Bills’ playoff chances. It goes without saying that the Bills win the last two.

You cannot with the East at 9-7, but there are several outcomes in which you could at least compete against the other AFC conferences for a wild card. One would be a 3-way, 9-7 tie that excludes the Jets: Pats lose twice, then beat Miami, Miami loses next week, and the Jets lose to Green Bay. Pats win the tiebreak for the division, you get second place over the Fins. But there are easier ways…

First option: Miami loses twice and the Jets lose once, whether to NE or GB (it doesn’t matter which). Pats take the East at 11-5 or 10-6. You don’t care which, because either way, you’re tied for second at 9-7 with Miami, so you emerge from the division in a 9-7 wild card tiebreak, assuming there is one.

Second option: Pats lose all three (Miami takes the division at 11-5 or 10-6). Jets lose to Green Bay. Pats, Jets finish 8-8.

Then, your real problem is that your schedule hasn’t included games against many of the other contenders, so you don’t have any head-to-head advantages except with the Chargers. And then, your 5-7 AFC record is going to hurt also.

The AFC North could help out if there’s a 9-7 division winner and the Steelers lose their last two to finish 8-7-1. Since Pittsburgh is in Tampa next week and then finishes with Baltimore, this might work out. Let’s say Baltimore beats Cleveland next week (knocking the Browns out of the picture) and then beats Pittsburgh. So long as the Bucs win next Monday, Ravens take the North and there is no 9-7 wild card candidate from the division.

In the South, your only shot is for the Titans to lose all three. Even if Indy loses its last two, it will beat you out with a better AFC record. However, you don’t actually need this, because…

In the West, you can of course hope that everyone finishes 8-8 except Oakland. This could happen if Oakland beats Denver and KC, KC beats SD next week, and in the final week Denver loses (to Arizona) and SD loses (to Seattle). But there’s an easier way.

All you really need is for San Diego to emerge from the West at 9-7, so you take it via your head-to-head win. You don’t care how many teams finish 9-7 in the West, so long as the Chargers win the internal division tiebreak (the first step in the wlld card tiebreak). This could actually work out.

One way is for the Chargers to beat KC next week -- knocking the Chiefs out of the picture, and finishing 4-2 in the division. If they then lose to Seattle, and Denver loses either of its last two games, San Diego gets the #2 spot over Denver (with the better division record, since they split their games). There are probably other, more complicated ways for SD to finish second at 9-7 in the West, but that’s what you’re shooting for.

Anyway, here’s the short version:

Miami loses twice and Jets lose once OR Pats lose all three and Jets lose to Green Bay.

Then, any two out of the following three:

Baltimore wins twice, and Steelers lose in Tampa.

Tennessee loses all three

San Diego finishes second in the West at 9-7 (or, less probably, all but Oakland finish 8-8).

Now, let it not be said I’m insensitive to the Bills’ playoff prospects.

[lordofgun]

Originally posted by Dolphinatic


OK, just to be gracious about it, I’ll look at the Bills’ playoff chances. It goes without saying that the Bills win the last two.

You cannot with the East at 9-7, but there are several outcomes in which you could at least compete against the other AFC conferences for a wild card. One would be a 3-way, 9-7 tie that excludes the Jets: Pats lose twice, then beat Miami, Miami loses next week, and the Jets lose to Green Bay. Pats win the tiebreak for the division, you get second place over the Fins. But there are easier ways…

First option: Miami loses twice and the Jets lose once, whether to NE or GB (it doesn’t matter which). Pats take the East at 11-5 or 10-6. You don’t care which, because either way, you’re tied for second at 9-7 with Miami, so you emerge from the division in a 9-7 wild card tiebreak, assuming there is one.

Second option: Pats lose all three (Miami takes the division at 11-5 or 10-6). Jets lose to Green Bay. Pats, Jets finish 8-8.

Then, your real problem is that your schedule hasn’t included games against many of the other contenders, so you don’t have any head-to-head advantages except with the Chargers. And then, your 5-7 AFC record is going to hurt also.

The AFC North could help out if there’s a 9-7 division winner and the Steelers lose their last two to finish 8-7-1. Since Pittsburgh is in Tampa next week and then finishes with Baltimore, this might work out. Let’s say Baltimore beats Cleveland next week (knocking the Browns out of the picture) and then beats Pittsburgh. So long as the Bucs win next Monday, Ravens take the North and there is no 9-7 wild card candidate from the division.

In the South, your only shot is for the Titans to lose all three. Even if Indy loses its last two, it will beat you out with a better AFC record. However, you don’t actually need this, because…

In the West, you can of course hope that everyone finishes 8-8 except Oakland. This could happen if Oakland beats Denver and KC, KC beats SD next week, and in the final week Denver loses (to Arizona) and SD loses (to Seattle). But there’s an easier way.

All you really need is for San Diego to emerge from the West at 9-7, so you take it via your head-to-head win. You don’t care how many teams finish 9-7 in the West, so long as the Chargers win the internal division tiebreak (the first step in the wlld card tiebreak). This could actually work out.

One way is for the Chargers to beat KC next week -- knocking the Chiefs out of the picture, and finishing 4-2 in the division. If they then lose to Seattle, and Denver loses either of its last two games, San Diego gets the #2 spot over Denver (with the better division record, since they split their games). There are probably other, more complicated ways for SD to finish second at 9-7 in the West, but that’s what you’re shooting for.

Anyway, here’s the short version:

Miami loses twice and Jets lose once OR Pats lose all three and Jets lose to Green Bay.

Then, any two out of the following three:

Baltimore wins twice, and Steelers lose in Tampa.

Tennessee loses all three

San Diego finishes second in the West at 9-7 (or, less probably, all but Oakland finish 8-8).

Now, let it not be said I’m insensitive to the Bills’ playoff prospects.

Great post!

[Dolphinatic]

Originally posted by lordofgun


Great post!

Thanks very much. I was getting bored with trying to explain the three-way tiebreak over on the Fins board, to people who simply refuse to believe that Miami can win out and still not get a playoff bye (Tennessee could screw it up). They think that since we beat Oakland it's impossible to finish behind them (though they never want to actually read the NFL tiebreak rule page to see how it really works).

[northernbillfan]

It was a good post, until I came upon this line....

Then, your real problem is that your schedule hasn’t included games against many of the other contenders,

After that you mention our 5-7 AFC record. Well 7 of those losses came at the hands of the front runners for the wild card. KC, Den, and Oak. That looks like game against front runners/contenders.

As gunzlinger said earlier...

It is a pipe dream to think we are playoff bound this year.

But we can dream, I know I am!

[WG]

Originally posted by gunzlingr
It is a pipe dream to think we are playoff bound this year.

It's a pipe dream to think that we have even a remote chance of beating G.B. at Lambeau this week. If instead of S.D. yesterday that had been G.B., the game would have been over midway thru the 3rd and we would have lost 34-20 or by more.

S.D. has no great passing game. G.B. has both a good passing game and a solid rushing game. So while we were allowed to focus on stopping Tomlinson yesterday, we will not have that luxury against G.B. Our only chance will be a slow-tempo'd shootout. But if Gilbride calls his typical game again, that will go down the tubes as fast as Clinton rushing to find an intern. Their D is as good as S.D.'s and their O is much better in incredibly more balanced. Our D won't have the same success.

When you factor in the notion that G.B. is playing for the home field advantage and the notion that they can clinch it w/ a win and w/ a T.B. loss, our chances are worse than slim. We play at 1 p.m. on Sunday while T.B. doesn't play until MNF. So 7-8 it will be looking at Cincy to put us at .500.

Best offseason move will be to can Gilbride however!

[Earthquake Enyart]

You didn't think we could beat Miami either.

[Dozerdog]

Or that Henry was any good...