My God, A Positive Bills Article By M.Weiler!?!

[LifetimeBillsFan]

While I generally have avoided reading articles on the Bills by M.Weiler because of his negative harping on the same subjects over and over again, I unwittingly began reading the article just posted on the Bills Zone front page (URL: http://billsbuzz.com/billsbuzz/pages/articles/articles2005/050505.htm) and was amazed to discover that Weiler had actually written a logically sound article with a positive prediction about a Bills player!

While Weiler bases his positive prediction that Josh Reed will benefit from the change at QB and have a good season on yet more negative statistical analysis of Drew Bledsoe's QB play, he actually offers some positive comments about the abilities of both J.Reed and, wonder of wonders, JP Losman. Shocking! You could have knocked me over with a feather.... And, long overdue from Weiler.

The article predicts that J.Reed's career may well follow the same course as that of Pat's WR Troy Brown--taking a decided up turn as he begins to work with a QB who is more more adept at throwing the short pass than D.Bledsoe. While I might argue that J.Reed does not have the speed or elusiveness of T.Brown, nevertheless, I think that Weiler makes some good points and supports them well.

While I happen to have been as much of a fan of J.Reed being drafted by the Bills and join M.Weiler in hoping that he is a major beneficiary of the change in QB from D.Bledsoe to JP Losman, given the enthusiasm with which JP spoke about R.Parrish after the recent mini-camp, it may be Parrish, not Reed who has the kind of season predicted by Weiler in his article. But, whether it is J.Reed or R.Parrish who benefits the most, I agree with M.Weiler's contention that, despite JP's inexperience, the short passing game is one area where the Bills' offense and passing game should be greatly improved this season. While Weiler didn't mention it in his article, as part of this improvement we may actually see the Bills complete more than a handful of true screen passes this season!

[Jan Reimers]

Yeah, but if you take away Reed's 3 longest catches. . .

[The Spaz]

Yeah, but if you take away Reed's 3 longest catches. . .

:lol::rofl:

[ParanoidAndroid]

Something I hadn't thought about previously that I'm sure entered the mind of many of you bears mentioning. One thing that Buffalo can do now that Bledsoe is gone is empty the backfield. Teams will still have to respect Losman's running ability and we have four receivers who are a threat every time they catch the ball. Now we have to see if Aiken is ever going to reach his potential. It'll be nice if Everrett can get healthy, but Euhus and Campbell will be fine.
He sounds awfully confident in Losman. Good.

[justasportsfan]

I happen to agree w/ him. Drew was more accurate downfield than he was in short passes and he zipped it.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Are we already saying Losman will produce like Brady of 2001? Com'on now. Who has the crystall ball?

The single most important factor in NE's run the last 4 years is Tom Brady. I don't care how much credit Belicheck gets. The fact is he never won anything as a HC until Brady became his starting QB.

Is it a wonder to anyone that some receivers had their best year when Brady is throwing them footballs during this time?

I don't worry about receivers, Moulds, Evans, Reed, Parrish, etc. If Losman have a good year, they will have a good year. If Losman plays like Brady, we'll win the superbowl or being very close to the superbowl. If Losman have a bad year, they have a bad year.

However you spin it, in 2005 the Bills link their fortune to Losman. McGahee can do a lot, the defense can do a lot, the special team can do a lot. But none of them can have as much an impact as Losman would.

[BuffaloRanger]

I think he writes off Moulds too quickly. He's not in the "twilight of his career."

Evans needs at least another year as a #2 WR. He's not ready to be a #1 just yet. Teams are going to start focusing on him more.

Reed as the #2 WR this year? Barring injury to Moulds, Reed should focus on winning the #3 WR spot.

1. Moulds
2. Evans
3. Reed/Parrish
5. Aiken

[jmb1099]

It may be a little too early to predict such things, but I don't see any way Reed gets the number three spot. He would need to make such a drastic improvement that it just doesn't seem possible.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Are we already saying Losman will produce like Brady of 2001? Com'on now. Who has the crystall ball?

The single most important factor in NE's run the last 4 years is Tom Brady. I don't care how much credit Belicheck gets. The fact is he never won anything as a HC until Brady became his starting QB.

Is it a wonder to anyone that some receivers had their best year when Brady is throwing them footballs during this time?

I don't worry about receivers, Moulds, Evans, Reed, Parrish, etc. If Losman have a good year, they will have a good year. If Losman plays like Brady, we'll win the superbowl or being very close to the superbowl. If Losman have a bad year, they have a bad year.

However you spin it, in 2005 the Bills link their fortune to Losman. McGahee can do a lot, the defense can do a lot, the special team can do a lot. But none of them can have as much an impact as Losman would.
I don't think that he is saying that Losman will produce like Brady and neither did I. What he is saying--and for once I agree with him on this particular point--is that Losman has already shown that he is able to throw the short pass better than Bledsoe and that his ability to do this better than Bledsoe will benefit the Bills' WR who runs most of those routes. He supports his contention by pointing out that Brady also happened to be able to throw the short pass better than Bledsoe and that, when Brady took over from Bledsoe, T.Brown, who was the WR who ran the most short routes in the Pats' offense was the beneficiary of this change in their offense. That does not mean that Losman will be as accurate as Brady or that J.Reed will do as well as T.Brown did after Brady took over as the Pats QB. M.Weiler makes no such prediction and neither did I. What he said--and what I agree with him on--is that Losman is better than Bledsoe (Bledsoe, not Brady!) at throwing the short pass and that Reed will benefit because Losman is better at throwing these passes than Bledsoe (again, Bledsoe, not Brady!).

Since the QB is the leader of and key player in the offense and is, ideally, one of the most influential leaders of the team, obviously, Losman's play will have more impact on the Bills' season than that of any other player on the team. That's a given. But, as I read Weiler's article, he did not predict that Losman would play as well as Brady did in 2001 and neither did I in my post. I certainly don't know how JP will play this season: obviously, if he plays well, the Bills will have a good season and a bright future; but, if he doesn't, it will have a negative impact not only on how well the team as a whole does, but on the individual performances of most of the players at the "skilled positions" on the offense.

You will note that T.Brady does not fit into this equation as I have expressed it at any point. Nor is there any crystal ball comparison or prediction regarding how well JP will play this season contained in the statement, either. The prediction pertains only to the fact that Losman has already shown that he throws the short pass better than Bledsoe and, as a result, the Bills' WR who is most often and most adept at running the short routes should benefit from this. That's what is being predicted, not that JP will play as well as T.Brady did when he took over from Bledsoe. Brady and T.Brown are cited only as an example of how a WR who runs the short route can benefit when a QB who doesn't throw the short pass well (ie Bledsoe) is replaced by a QB who throws it better to support the prediction about Reed doing better with JP at QB than with Bledsoe.

While I would love to see JP play as well for the Bills as T.Brady has for the Pats, any fan in his right mind knows that it is way to early to tell how well JP will end up playing once the games start for real, let alone predict whether JP will compare in any way with T.Brady.

[SABURZFAN]

While I generally have avoided reading articles on the Bills by M.Weiler because of his negative harping on the same subjects over and over again, I unwittingly began reading the article just posted on the Bills Zone front page (URL: http://billsbuzz.com/billsbuzz/pages/articles/articles2005/050505.htm) and was amazed to discover that Weiler had actually written a logically sound article with a positive prediction about a Bills player!

While Weiler bases his positive prediction that Josh Reed will benefit from the change at QB and have a good season on yet more negative statistical analysis of Drew Bledsoe's QB play, he actually offers some positive comments about the abilities of both J.Reed and, wonder of wonders, JP Losman. Shocking! You could have knocked me over with a feather.... And, long overdue from Weiler.

The article predicts that J.Reed's career may well follow the same course as that of Pat's WR Troy Brown--taking a decided up turn as he begins to work with a QB who is more more adept at throwing the short pass than D.Bledsoe. While I might argue that J.Reed does not have the speed or elusiveness of T.Brown, nevertheless, I think that Weiler makes some good points and supports them well.

While I happen to have been as much of a fan of J.Reed being drafted by the Bills and join M.Weiler in hoping that he is a major beneficiary of the change in QB from D.Bledsoe to JP Losman, given the enthusiasm with which JP spoke about R.Parrish after the recent mini-camp, it may be Parrish, not Reed who has the kind of season predicted by Weiler in his article. But, whether it is J.Reed or R.Parrish who benefits the most, I agree with M.Weiler's contention that, despite JP's inexperience, the short passing game is one area where the Bills' offense and passing game should be greatly improved this season. While Weiler didn't mention it in his article, as part of this improvement we may actually see the Bills complete more than a handful of true screen passes this season!

he's cuttin through the bull. :up:

[SABURZFAN]

Yeah, but if you take away Reed's 3 longest catches. . .


:snicker:

[Tatonka]

how is reed going to put up such great numbers as the number 3 at best? number 3wrs on run heavy teams dont put up numbers to "catapult him into the top tier of wide receivers", as mark states..

i would love to see it though.

[Jan Reimers]

Yeah, playing 3rd fiddle behind Evans and Moulds won't give him a ton of opportunities - if he is, in fact, our 3rd receiver. If he were to match his rookie year, I'd be happy.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Where I agree with him is in his contention that our # 3 WR should do a lot better than he has in the past, even though it is a run-oriented offense, because JP is better able to throw the short pass to our # 3 WR than Bledsoe was.

Where I disagree with Weiler is in his contention that J.Reed is going to suddenly explode into a major weapon this season and become a top-flight WR. As much as I liked J.Reed coming out of college and have hoped and continue to hope that he will do well for the Bills, I'm not sure that he can or will ever be that guy. However, I can see R.Parrish having the potential to be or become that guy because of his speed and elusiveness and the fact that he seemed to have developed a rapport with JP very quickly during the mini-camp (JP mentioned in an article that he was more comfortable throwing to Evans and Parrish than Moulds and would need to work more with Moulds--that says something about the rapport he already has with Parrish). The question in my mind is whether Parrish will have the consistency and durability to fill that role right away as a rookie. If he can, I can see the Bills coaching staff trying to use him at the # 3 spot (not Reed, as Weiler contends) to create mis-matches and take advantage of JP's ability to throw short, even though this is and will be a run-oriented team.

The fact that the Bills are a run-oriented offense doesn't mean that they won't pass the ball a fair amount or use multiple receiver sets. They were a run-oriented offense last season with Bledsoe at QB and they still threw the ball a fair amount of the time and they will have plenty of opportunities to do so again this season, especially if JP shows that he can play reasonably well.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

What he is saying--and for once I agree with him on this particular point--is that Losman has already shown that he is able to throw the short pass better than Bledsoe and that his ability to do this better than Bledsoe will benefit the Bills' WR who runs most of those routes.

And on what bases do you know that Losman is already throwing short passes better than Bledsoe, or any starting QB in NFL? From the 4 passes he threw last year? Practices? Pre-seasons? Off-season workouts?

What about read and re-act to defenses? Rob Johnson can throw very good short passes, if he knows when and where to throw in games.

It still amazes me how many people take things for granted, like a rookie QB performing to the mere level Roethlisberger is common place just because he was drafted in the 1st round!

[jamze132]

I don't think numbers for a #3 receiver have any bearing whatsoever as long as the he does his job when he's in there. Of course in a "run heavy" style offense, the third receiver isn't going to get many opportunities. He will be required to run decoy and block a lot. I think his season should be based on what the people do around him, as long as he does what he's supposed to. No one is saying that Reed has to have 50 catches this year in order to consider him saved. I don't care if he has 10 catches as long as he makes his blocks and runs his decoy routes.

[jpdex12]

Where I agree with him is in his contention that our # 3 WR should do a lot better than he has in the past, even though it is a run-oriented offense, because JP is better able to throw the short pass to our # 3 WR than Bledsoe was.

Where I disagree with Weiler is in his contention that J.Reed is going to suddenly explode into a major weapon this season and become a top-flight WR. As much as I liked J.Reed coming out of college and have hoped and continue to hope that he will do well for the Bills, I'm not sure that he can or will ever be that guy. However, I can see R.Parrish having the potential to be or become that guy because of his speed and elusiveness and the fact that he seemed to have developed a rapport with JP very quickly during the mini-camp (JP mentioned in an article that he was more comfortable throwing to Evans and Parrish than Moulds and would need to work more with Moulds--that says something about the rapport he already has with Parrish). The question in my mind is whether Parrish will have the consistency and durability to fill that role right away as a rookie. If he can, I can see the Bills coaching staff trying to use him at the # 3 spot (not Reed, as Weiler contends) to create mis-matches and take advantage of JP's ability to throw short, even though this is and will be a run-oriented team.

The fact that the Bills are a run-oriented offense doesn't mean that they won't pass the ball a fair amount or use multiple receiver sets. They were a run-oriented offense last season with Bledsoe at QB and they still threw the ball a fair amount of the time and they will have plenty of opportunities to do so again this season, especially if JP shows that he can play reasonably well.
Way to shorten things up!

[helmetguy]

Before any of this happens, though, Reed has to relearn HOW TO CATCH THE BALL!

[TigerJ]

Weiler does make some valid points about Bledsoe. It's too soon to annoint Losman as the perfect QB and too much to expect that Reed is going to instantly enter the elite among NFL receivers. As the third receiver, he's simply not going to be on the field that much. Moulds is still going to be on the field for just about every offensive play. Evans is going to get a lot of playing time because A. what he did last season and, B his speed makes defensive backs more honest. They have to respect it, thus making it easier to run the ball. Reed will get an average of maybe three to three and a half receptions per game. If he catches virtually everything that comes his way, a huge if considering his last two seasons, he's still not going to be considered an elite receiver. I'll be happy if he simply proves to be a good third receiver.

[mypoorfriendme]

starting losman is virtually risk free...

the way i see it, the "rookie" mistakes losman is bound to make, will be compensated for by the plays he will make that drew was unable to (be it scrambling for a few yards, buying a few extra seconds in the pocket, or completing slants). bledsoe slowed the offense just as much as anyone did last year

put simply, theres no way losman can do any worse than bledsoe...sad but true.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

And on what bases do you know that Losman is already throwing short passes better than Bledsoe, or any starting QB in NFL? From the 4 passes he threw last year? Practices? Pre-seasons? Off-season workouts?

What about read and re-act to defenses? Rob Johnson can throw very good short passes, if he knows when and where to throw in games.

It still amazes me how many people take things for granted, like a rookie QB performing to the mere level Roethlisberger is common place just because he was drafted in the 1st round!
You only have to have seen JP throw a few short passes in preseason and the couple of games that he was in to be able to see that he is able to put more "touch" on the ball when throwing it short that Bledsoe ever could. That means that he has the physical ability to throw that pass better than Drew. And, that's all I was really refering to.

Of course you are correct in pointing out that we have no idea how well JP is going to be able to read defenses, etc.--which is the most important element of playing the position and being effective in the passing game. That we will have to wait to see him playing to know how good he will be. But, when he does read the things he needs to do correctly and throws the ball short, his ability to put "touch" on the ball will make him more effective than Bledsoe was in throwing those passes because of the way those passes are usually designed and because it makes it easier for the receiver to catch the ball. But, of course, JP has to deliver the ball and show that he can deliver it to a Bills' receiver and not the other team.

I also am very much in agreement with you that it would be totally unfair for Bills fans to expect JP to play or win the way that Roethlisberger did last season. I certainly don't expect him to and I hope that most Bills fans won't either. I think the standard that we should look to compare JP against is that of C.Palmer, who became a first year starter under similar circumstances--if JP can play as well as Palmer, a much more highly-touted QB coming out of college, did, I will be very happy. But, I also think that it would be foolish to consider JP a bust if he doesn't play well for a significant part of the season: some of the best QBs in NFL history, including J.Elway who likes telling about how he was pulled at halftime of his first game because he was so bad, were downright awful their first seasons as a starter. Personally, I am interested to see how JP handles the job and am going to wait until the end of the season to assess his performance and future potential to win with the Bills. But, at the same time, I do think that JP has some physical abilities that will allow him to do certain things better than Bledsoe could if he is able to put himself in a position to do them (I also think that there are some things that he probably can't do as well as Bledsoe physically as well--throwing the deep ball, etc. perhaps).

[ghz in pittsburgh]

That's why I don't concern about how a 3rd receiver can step up to help Losman this season. Having watched closely the parade of QBs in Bills uniform since Kelly, and having watched closely several QBs in Steelers uniform until Roethlisberger, it really becomes clear to me - the ones who can stay poised under pressure will succeed. Maybe someone with more physical ability can do a little more, but that's really looking for gravy. If you have the main traits right, guys can find ways to get it done. Montana, Brady are not physical specimen in terms of QBs, but they get the right mental ability, and that's all it takes. Too often I think we look to the gravy side for QB, fans, coaches, GMs included, the physical ability.

In all honesty, I see more Flutie in Losman than anyone else, guys with strong leadership, chrisma, and escape capability. Again this is just me. From Losman's college style, he's nothing like the prototype QBs of Parmer, Roethlisberger world. I always see him in Flutie types. Flutie had a tough time adjusting from college to NFL, but he's fine student of the game. Every year he played, whether in CFL or NFL, he refined his game in the mental part. I don't know how long will it take Losman to get there mentally. I'd happy to take a Flutie type of QB in Losman than the lofty standard of those HOF ones.

Finally let me give you a bit of my assessment of Roethlisberger. He got the right poise - body flying, people crashing around him, throwing a pick, getting sacked - those things don't bother him. He looks for easy targets and he can buy a little time with his feet, he can buy a little time with his body (several linbackers got a taste of trying to bring down a 260lb QB). And that little time allows him to complete a lot of easy passes. Towards the end of last season, the opposing CBs realize that they need to stay with their men a little longer when Roethlisberger has the ball. And when they do, the INTs come in droves. I also think he has a lot of probelms in his mechanics; he floats a lot of balls (I believe that's the main objective of improvement the Steelers set for him).

Losman will have a very different style. But the poise, meaning the ability to still function mentally under pressure is what makes or breaks a QB. I admit I don't like what I saw in Losman's debut. He looked completely overwhelmed. In contrast, Roethlisberger was pressed into the game when Maddox got hurt and he threw a pick on his first pass. But you can tell he's in the game mentally. I don't feel the need to discuss Losman's other skills until he shows me what he displayed in last year's NE game is not really him.