My God, A Positive Bills Article By M.Weiler!?!

[LifetimeBillsFan]

While I generally have avoided reading articles on the Bills by M.Weiler because of his negative harping on the same subjects over and over again, I unwittingly began reading the article just posted on the Bills Zone front page (URL: http://billsbuzz.com/billsbuzz/pages...005/050505.htm) and was amazed to discover that Weiler had actually written a logically sound article with a positive prediction about a Bills player!

While Weiler bases his positive prediction that Josh Reed will benefit from the change at QB and have a good season on yet more negative statistical analysis of Drew Bledsoe's QB play, he actually offers some positive comments about the abilities of both J.Reed and, wonder of wonders, JP Losman. Shocking! You could have knocked me over with a feather.... And, long overdue from Weiler.

The article predicts that J.Reed's career may well follow the same course as that of Pat's WR Troy Brown--taking a decided up turn as he begins to work with a QB who is more more adept at throwing the short pass than D.Bledsoe. While I might argue that J.Reed does not have the speed or elusiveness of T.Brown, nevertheless, I think that Weiler makes some good points and supports them well.

While I happen to have been as much of a fan of J.Reed being drafted by the Bills and join M.Weiler in hoping that he is a major beneficiary of the change in QB from D.Bledsoe to JP Losman, given the enthusiasm with which JP spoke about R.Parrish after the recent mini-camp, it may be Parrish, not Reed who has the kind of season predicted by Weiler in his article. But, whether it is J.Reed or R.Parrish who benefits the most, I agree with M.Weiler's contention that, despite JP's inexperience, the short passing game is one area where the Bills' offense and passing game should be greatly improved this season. While Weiler didn't mention it in his article, as part of this improvement we may actually see the Bills complete more than a handful of true screen passes this season!

[Jan Reimers]

Yeah, but if you take away Reed's 3 longest catches. . .

[The Spaz]

Yeah, but if you take away Reed's 3 longest catches. . .

[ParanoidAndroid]

Something I hadn't thought about previously that I'm sure entered the mind of many of you bears mentioning. One thing that Buffalo can do now that Bledsoe is gone is empty the backfield. Teams will still have to respect Losman's running ability and we have four receivers who are a threat every time they catch the ball. Now we have to see if Aiken is ever going to reach his potential. It'll be nice if Everrett can get healthy, but Euhus and Campbell will be fine.
He sounds awfully confident in Losman. Good.

[justasportsfan]

I happen to agree w/ him. Drew was more accurate downfield than he was in short passes and he zipped it.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Are we already saying Losman will produce like Brady of 2001? Com'on now. Who has the crystall ball?

The single most important factor in NE's run the last 4 years is Tom Brady. I don't care how much credit Belicheck gets. The fact is he never won anything as a HC until Brady became his starting QB.

Is it a wonder to anyone that some receivers had their best year when Brady is throwing them footballs during this time?

I don't worry about receivers, Moulds, Evans, Reed, Parrish, etc. If Losman have a good year, they will have a good year. If Losman plays like Brady, we'll win the superbowl or being very close to the superbowl. If Losman have a bad year, they have a bad year.

However you spin it, in 2005 the Bills link their fortune to Losman. McGahee can do a lot, the defense can do a lot, the special team can do a lot. But none of them can have as much an impact as Losman would.

[BuffaloRanger]

I think he writes off Moulds too quickly. He's not in the "twilight of his career."

Evans needs at least another year as a #2 WR. He's not ready to be a #1 just yet. Teams are going to start focusing on him more.

Reed as the #2 WR this year? Barring injury to Moulds, Reed should focus on winning the #3 WR spot.

1. Moulds
2. Evans
3. Reed/Parrish
5. Aiken

[jmb1099]

It may be a little too early to predict such things, but I don't see any way Reed gets the number three spot. He would need to make such a drastic improvement that it just doesn't seem possible.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Are we already saying Losman will produce like Brady of 2001? Com'on now. Who has the crystall ball?

The single most important factor in NE's run the last 4 years is Tom Brady. I don't care how much credit Belicheck gets. The fact is he never won anything as a HC until Brady became his starting QB.

Is it a wonder to anyone that some receivers had their best year when Brady is throwing them footballs during this time?

I don't worry about receivers, Moulds, Evans, Reed, Parrish, etc. If Losman have a good year, they will have a good year. If Losman plays like Brady, we'll win the superbowl or being very close to the superbowl. If Losman have a bad year, they have a bad year.

However you spin it, in 2005 the Bills link their fortune to Losman. McGahee can do a lot, the defense can do a lot, the special team can do a lot. But none of them can have as much an impact as Losman would.

I don't think that he is saying that Losman will produce like Brady and neither did I. What he is saying--and for once I agree with him on this particular point--is that Losman has already shown that he is able to throw the short pass better than Bledsoe and that his ability to do this better than Bledsoe will benefit the Bills' WR who runs most of those routes. He supports his contention by pointing out that Brady also happened to be able to throw the short pass better than Bledsoe and that, when Brady took over from Bledsoe, T.Brown, who was the WR who ran the most short routes in the Pats' offense was the beneficiary of this change in their offense. That does not mean that Losman will be as accurate as Brady or that J.Reed will do as well as T.Brown did after Brady took over as the Pats QB. M.Weiler makes no such prediction and neither did I. What he said--and what I agree with him on--is that Losman is better than Bledsoe (Bledsoe, not Brady!) at throwing the short pass and that Reed will benefit because Losman is better at throwing these passes than Bledsoe (again, Bledsoe, not Brady!).

Since the QB is the leader of and key player in the offense and is, ideally, one of the most influential leaders of the team, obviously, Losman's play will have more impact on the Bills' season than that of any other player on the team. That's a given. But, as I read Weiler's article, he did not predict that Losman would play as well as Brady did in 2001 and neither did I in my post. I certainly don't know how JP will play this season: obviously, if he plays well, the Bills will have a good season and a bright future; but, if he doesn't, it will have a negative impact not only on how well the team as a whole does, but on the individual performances of most of the players at the "skilled positions" on the offense.

You will note that T.Brady does not fit into this equation as I have expressed it at any point. Nor is there any crystal ball comparison or prediction regarding how well JP will play this season contained in the statement, either. The prediction pertains only to the fact that Losman has already shown that he throws the short pass better than Bledsoe and, as a result, the Bills' WR who is most often and most adept at running the short routes should benefit from this. That's what is being predicted, not that JP will play as well as T.Brady did when he took over from Bledsoe. Brady and T.Brown are cited only as an example of how a WR who runs the short route can benefit when a QB who doesn't throw the short pass well (ie Bledsoe) is replaced by a QB who throws it better to support the prediction about Reed doing better with JP at QB than with Bledsoe.

While I would love to see JP play as well for the Bills as T.Brady has for the Pats, any fan in his right mind knows that it is way to early to tell how well JP will end up playing once the games start for real, let alone predict whether JP will compare in any way with T.Brady.

[SABURZFAN]

While I generally have avoided reading articles on the Bills by M.Weiler because of his negative harping on the same subjects over and over again, I unwittingly began reading the article just posted on the Bills Zone front page (URL: http://billsbuzz.com/billsbuzz/pages...005/050505.htm) and was amazed to discover that Weiler had actually written a logically sound article with a positive prediction about a Bills player!

While Weiler bases his positive prediction that Josh Reed will benefit from the change at QB and have a good season on yet more negative statistical analysis of Drew Bledsoe's QB play, he actually offers some positive comments about the abilities of both J.Reed and, wonder of wonders, JP Losman. Shocking! You could have knocked me over with a feather.... And, long overdue from Weiler.

The article predicts that J.Reed's career may well follow the same course as that of Pat's WR Troy Brown--taking a decided up turn as he begins to work with a QB who is more more adept at throwing the short pass than D.Bledsoe. While I might argue that J.Reed does not have the speed or elusiveness of T.Brown, nevertheless, I think that Weiler makes some good points and supports them well.

While I happen to have been as much of a fan of J.Reed being drafted by the Bills and join M.Weiler in hoping that he is a major beneficiary of the change in QB from D.Bledsoe to JP Losman, given the enthusiasm with which JP spoke about R.Parrish after the recent mini-camp, it may be Parrish, not Reed who has the kind of season predicted by Weiler in his article. But, whether it is J.Reed or R.Parrish who benefits the most, I agree with M.Weiler's contention that, despite JP's inexperience, the short passing game is one area where the Bills' offense and passing game should be greatly improved this season. While Weiler didn't mention it in his article, as part of this improvement we may actually see the Bills complete more than a handful of true screen passes this season!

he's cuttin through the bull.

[SABURZFAN]

Yeah, but if you take away Reed's 3 longest catches. . .

[Tatonka]

how is reed going to put up such great numbers as the number 3 at best? number 3wrs on run heavy teams dont put up numbers to "catapult him into the top tier of wide receivers", as mark states..

i would love to see it though.

[Jan Reimers]

Yeah, playing 3rd fiddle behind Evans and Moulds won't give him a ton of opportunities - if he is, in fact, our 3rd receiver. If he were to match his rookie year, I'd be happy.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Where I agree with him is in his contention that our # 3 WR should do a lot better than he has in the past, even though it is a run-oriented offense, because JP is better able to throw the short pass to our # 3 WR than Bledsoe was.

Where I disagree with Weiler is in his contention that J.Reed is going to suddenly explode into a major weapon this season and become a top-flight WR. As much as I liked J.Reed coming out of college and have hoped and continue to hope that he will do well for the Bills, I'm not sure that he can or will ever be that guy. However, I can see R.Parrish having the potential to be or become that guy because of his speed and elusiveness and the fact that he seemed to have developed a rapport with JP very quickly during the mini-camp (JP mentioned in an article that he was more comfortable throwing to Evans and Parrish than Moulds and would need to work more with Moulds--that says something about the rapport he already has with Parrish). The question in my mind is whether Parrish will have the consistency and durability to fill that role right away as a rookie. If he can, I can see the Bills coaching staff trying to use him at the # 3 spot (not Reed, as Weiler contends) to create mis-matches and take advantage of JP's ability to throw short, even though this is and will be a run-oriented team.

The fact that the Bills are a run-oriented offense doesn't mean that they won't pass the ball a fair amount or use multiple receiver sets. They were a run-oriented offense last season with Bledsoe at QB and they still threw the ball a fair amount of the time and they will have plenty of opportunities to do so again this season, especially if JP shows that he can play reasonably well.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

What he is saying--and for once I agree with him on this particular point--is that Losman has already shown that he is able to throw the short pass better than Bledsoe and that his ability to do this better than Bledsoe will benefit the Bills' WR who runs most of those routes.

And on what bases do you know that Losman is already throwing short passes better than Bledsoe, or any starting QB in NFL? From the 4 passes he threw last year? Practices? Pre-seasons? Off-season workouts?

What about read and re-act to defenses? Rob Johnson can throw very good short passes, if he knows when and where to throw in games.

It still amazes me how many people take things for granted, like a rookie QB performing to the mere level Roethlisberger is common place just because he was drafted in the 1st round!