Playoff possibilities!

[Drewpac]

Stranger things have happened. At least this week's game is a meaningful one. Thanks for the breakdown Patrick.

[Patrick76777]

For the fans who wanted to start a lynch mob after Wade Phillips told us all that we don’t have a chance at the playoffs 2 years ago, I give you a few scenarios to help make your weekend of football watching more entertaining.

Scenario 1 – A very good shot

Week 16

1. The Jets beat New England – I don’t see any reason why the Jets can’t take this game.
2. The Raiders beat Denver – Again coming off a loss, the Raiders should beat Denver
3. The Chargers beat KC – San Diego is limping along, but this is a must win. With Holmes out, San Diego should win.
4. We need to win in Green Bay – Probably the biggest longshot in the whole scenario. Of course if we can’t win, we don’t deserve to make the playoffs.
Bonus – The Browns and Ravens play. We need one of them to lose or tie. I think we can mark this one as a lock.


Week 17

1. Buffalo over the Bungles – No problem
2. Miami over New England – Never thought I’d say GO FISH
3. The Pack over the Jets – We shouldn’t need to worry.
4. The winner of the Ravens vs. Browns in week 16 game must lose. The Browns play Atlanta and the Ravens get Pittsburgh. We’ll only need one!
5. If it comes to it, it’ll make a great 4:00 game. We would just need Seattle to upset San Diego. The Seahawks have been playing better!

This scenario puts us at 9-7 and in a 3-way tie with both Denver (assuming they beat Arizona) and San Diego. Under NFL tiebreaker rules, when 2 or more teams are tied for a Wild Card spot, division ties are broken first. San Diego would finish ahead of Denver based on having a 4-2 division record. We would then finish ahead of San Diego based on our week 15 victory.

For this scenario to work itself out, we would need a total of 9 games to be decided in our favor.


Scenario 2 – very similar

Week 16

1. The Vikings beat Miami – The Vikings have come on strong but will need to be 100% to beat Miami
2. The Raiders over Denver – see above
3. The Charges over Kansas City – see above
4. The Bills over the Packers – see above
Bonus – The Browns and Ravens play. We need one of them to lose or tie. I think we can mark this one as a lock.

Week 17

1. New England over Miami – The Pats at home could take this for the division.
2. Buffalo over the Bungles – See above
3. The winner of the Ravens vs. Browns in week 16 game must lose. The Browns play Atlanta and the Ravens get Pittsburgh. We’ll only need one!
4. Seattle over San Diego – see above

* The Jets lose one of two remaining games. At New England and Vs. Green Bay

Very similar to the other scenario, only Miami would also finish at 9-7 creating a 4-way tie for the Wild Card with Buffalo, Denver and San Diego. As mentioned above, In a multi-team tie for a Wild Card spot, division tiebreakers are broken first. Therefore, even though Miami defeated both Denver and San Diego, they would lose the head to head tiebreaker with Buffalo and Finish 3rd in the AFC East. San Diego would once again finish ahead of Denver and Buffalo would finish ahead of San Diego. Buffalo would get the final Wild Card.


The best scenario would have Miami and New England both losing this weekend! If this were to happen, the loser of their week 17 match-up would drop to 3rd place in the AFC East behind the Bills. Assuming of course the Bills win both games.

It’s more fun to hold out hope. Let’s just pray we can all sit at the Ralph on December 29th, watching the scoreboard and hoping beyond all hope that we can sneak in.

Hey, you never know.

[fabolouspaul]

Hey Patrick, :urock: :band:

[Cntrygal]

:up: Great job Patrick!!!

[The Natrix]

I knew I could count on you for the playoff possibilities breakdown. I will expect an updated version at the beginning of next week

[Mr. Miyagi]

Let me understand this: so with Indy/Tennessee taking up one of the two Wildcard spots, you're saying under these scenerios we could be fighting against SD and Denver for the last spot? I guess that makes sense.

But all this analysis is irrelevant, if we don't beat the Packers. First thing first, this weekend is make or break for us, and it won't be easy.

I'll be sitting home rooting for my Bills against my wife for her Packers. Someone is sleeping on the couch this Sunday night. :)

[The Natrix]

make her

[Buffarama]

In the first scenario, don't we finish behind Denver since they beat us? Does the fact that we beat San Diego nullify the tie breaker with Denver?


Edited - Nevermind, I see now.

Edited Again: So a third place team in another division ( third due to inter divisional tie breakers) loses out to a second place team in another division, even though they have the same record and won head to head?

[Patrick76777]

Read it. Division Ties are broken first. SD gets the nod over Denver and moves to the next tiebreaker against us.

[Patrick76777]

No problem....i see you saw it.

[Mr. Miyagi]

No. In a tie-breaker between three or more teams, you group the teams that are in the same division first, apply division tie-breaker rule on them and eliminate down to only one team per division. In this case with SD and DEN, the first criteria is head-to-head matchup. If SD and DEN split it, then it's division record. SD would have a better division record then DEN (like Pat said: "San Diego would finish ahead of Denver based on having a 4-2 division record."). So we would go up against SD only. And since we win the tie-breaker (rule #1 - head-to-head) over SD, we would beat them out.

[Buffarama]

Originally posted by BillsFanStuckInWisc
No. In a tie-breaker between three or more teams, you group the teams that are in the same division first, apply division tie-breaker rule on them and eliminate down to only one team per division. In this case with SD and DEN, the first criteria is head-to-head matchup. If SD and DEN split it, then it's division record. SD would have a better division record then DEN (like Pat said: "San Diego would finish ahead of Denver based on having a 4-2 division record."). So we would go up against SD only. And since we win the tie-breaker (rule #1 - head-to-head) over SD, we would beat them out.


Repost from above :


So a third place team in another division ( third due to inter divisional tie breakers) loses out to a second place team in another division, even though they have the same record and won head to head?

[Patrick76777]

It sounds so nice. I just hope we’re alive come week 17. That would be fun.

[Patrick76777]

Yes

[mybills]

<b>"Never thought I’d say GO FISH"</b>

:rofl:

I said the same thing!
I had to, listening to all these Pats fans around here!
:psyche:

[RedEyE]

Nice breakdown. Go Bills!!

[Dolphinatic]

One minor extra thought on your summary, if I may:

You are not really neutral on the Browns-Ravens game, even though they're both 7-7. If the Browns and Steelers win their next two, the Browns are still a 9-7 wild card contender, behind the 10-5-1 Steelers. This would be bad for the Bills.

However, if the Ravens win, the Browns are out of it. If the Steelers lose Monday (at Tampa, so that seems likely) then Week 17 finds the 8-7 Ravens at the 8-6-1 Steelers. Either way that game goes, there is no 9-7 wild card contender from the North.

So what you want is the Ravens over the Browns, and a Steelers loss Monday.

Also, a Miami loss this weekend keeps more possibilities alive for you. But if the Fins win, then as you mentioned, you will absolutely need the Jets to beat the Pats, making the Dolphins AFC East champions.

I will therefore root for the Bills to upset the Packers on Sunday, so I can bask in the novelty of your enthusiastic support in Sunday evening's game, after which we can all celebrate Miami's division championship together.

:D

[DougFlutie7]

I mean nevermind

[Jim Kelly12]

C'mon Bills fans!! You gotta believe!!

[Cntrygal]

Originally posted by Dolphinatic
One minor extra thought on your summary, if I may:

You are not really neutral on the Browns-Ravens game, even though they're both 7-7. If the Browns and Steelers win their next two, the Browns are still a 9-7 wild card contender, behind the 10-5-1 Steelers. This would be bad for the Bills.

However, if the Ravens win, the Browns are out of it. If the Steelers lose Monday (at Tampa, so that seems likely) then Week 17 finds the 8-7 Ravens at the 8-6-1 Steelers. Either way that game goes, there is no 9-7 wild card contender from the North.

So what you want is the Ravens over the Browns, and a Steelers loss Monday.

Also, a Miami loss this weekend keeps more possibilities alive for you. But if the Fins win, then as you mentioned, you will absolutely need the Jets to beat the Pats, making the Dolphins AFC East champions.

I will therefore root for the Bills to upset the Packers on Sunday, so I can bask in the novelty of your enthusiastic support in Sunday evening's game, after which we can all celebrate Miami's division championship together.

:D

Thanks for the update to the update... ;) As far as your last paragraph goes... We need you to beat the patsies... but geesh .... I hope I don't choke on the wings.

[The_Philster]

Originally posted by Cntrygal


Thanks for the update to the update... ;) As far as your last paragraph goes... We need you to beat the patsies... but geesh .... I hope I don't choke on the wings.

That scares me when we actually have to root for the Fish. Whenever I have had to do that, they'd lose just to spite me :mad:

[Dolphinatic]

Originally posted by The_Philster


That scares me when we actualy have to root for the Fish. Whenever I have had to do that, they'd lose just to spite me :mad:

Funny you should mention that, because if we win the division this weekend and have no chance at at playoff bye in Week 17, it's possible the game will become meaningless for the Fins and they could potentially pull the starters out in the second half.

Titans play Houston also in a 1pm game. If they're winning big, and it's our last chance to get a bye, I can't imagine why we'd risk injuries.

[Marcos20]

now i have a headache after reading all that stuff

[TigerJ]

It's a long shot, but hey, I can dream too. If we're still alive after Sunday it'll be great. That will mean we have beaten Green Bay.
Brett Farve hasn't lost at Lambeau in 34 games-4 years.

[Patrick76777]

If anybody can do it, it’s a team from Buffalo.

And BTW this is my thread!

[vabillsfan]

Keep the faith - as we should always do. Throw out stats, who fumbles, who throws interceptions, why it was a good/bad trade, who we hate.

Just root for our Bills and KEEP THE FAITH!

[Patrick76777]

Hey, 1 down 8 to go.

[Mr. Miyagi]

Originally posted by vabillsfan
Keep the faith - as we should always do. Throw out stats, who fumbles, who throws interceptions, why it was a good/bad trade, who we hate.

Just root for our Bills and KEEP THE FAITH!
You're absolutely right. Nothing matters except for the final score on gameday.

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :gobills:

[mybills]

Who has the most wins in the AFC right now?

[TigerJ]

Miami, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Oakland all have nine wins. Four more teams: New England, Pittsburgh, Denver and San Diego all have 8 wins. Buffalo, the Jets, Baltimore, Cleveland and KC all have seven wins. Thirteen teams are .500 or better and only 3 teams are under .500. Pretty amazing! There has, I understand only been one other year when the league experienced this kind of log jam in one of the divisions.

[mybills]

I should have worded that better. I was thinking if the afc east tied at 9-7 and NE tied Jets with 4-2 in the division, who of these 4 have the most wins for the conference. I did look it up & I see NE & Jets are tied at 5 wins right now, Miami as 7.

[Andrea1234]

just give the ball to Travis henry and eric molds and they can get us a W we need to beat the packs today to keep our playoffs hopes alive well the fish lost yesterday which is good :) go bills

[clumping platelets]

That's E moulds :chuckle:

Funny how the PA announcer at the stadium (John Gurtler) said that last week. He didn't start doing it without input from someone.