Bledsoe: Are our chances of winning better when we put the ball in his hands??

[WG]

Not according to the statistics!

He's had 40+ attempts in 5 games.

We're 1-4 in those games.

He's had more than 36 attempts in 6 games.

We're 1-5 in those games.

He's had 35 or fewer attempts also in 5 games.

We're 4-1 in those games!

In the other 4 games he's had 36 attempts (W), 36 (W), 36 (L), and 39 (L).

Soooo! HELLO!

It would appear, at least according to hard data, that in fact, our chances lessen as Drew gets more opportunities, eh!

In the meantime, in those 5 games that we lost when Drew's had the most attempts, Henry never had more than 15 carries in any single game! Interesting I think. Seems to me that the real impetus in us winning is Henry!

In the 7 games in which Henry's had the most carries, we're 5-2 w/ the 2 losses being the Jets early on when Henry had a HUGE game and Bledsoe Sh the bed w/ 2 INTs and 4 sacks, and in the K.C. game where Henry only had 24 carries for 5.3 YPC avg. while Drew could only amass 225 gross passing yards, 211 net, on 36 attempts. And don't forget, there was plenty of criticism in that game indicating that we should have run Henry more. That criticism came from just about every source that covers the Bills.

So it's pretty safe to say that we play our best ball when Drew doesn't throw, and Henry gets more carries.

Let allll the excuses start flying...

This ought to be entertaining!

But Wys, it was cloudy, and at all the inopportune times, Drews eyes were in the sun...

[WG]

Oh yeah, in recap, the more that Drew puts the ball in the air, the LESS our chances of winning are!

Did I happen to mention that!

[WG]

[RedEyE]

Wys, losing your mind?

Your stats make sense but contain no content. Here is some more fuel for your fire: Bledsoe is actually 1-5 when he's attempted 40+ times.

NE twice / first game 45x / second 51x

Vikes 49

Denver 41

Raiders 53


Using your own stats, consider this - Wouldn't it make sense that Drew would be throwing more when trailing? Wouldn't it make more sense that his accuracy rating would deplete the more he throws? I don't think that there is a QB in the league that wouldn't expereince the same issues if put in similar situations.

However, to put things into Wys perspective..................................

Bledsoe vs the Pats #1 : 1 TD / 1 INT
Bills D vs the Pats #1 : -38 pts

Bledsoe vs the Vikes: 3TD / 0 INT
Bills D vs the Vikes: -39pts

Bledsoe vs the Broncos: 2 TD / 0 INT
Bills D vs the Broncos: -28 pts

Bledsoe vs the Raiders: 2 TD / 2 INT
Bills D vs the Raiders: -42 pts (I even subtracted the Drew INT for a TD)

Bledsoe vs the Pats #2: 2 TD / 4 INT
Bills D vs the Pats #2: -27 pts

Bledsoe average in the above 5 games: 2TD/ 1.5 INT @ 358.6 yds. avg. a game

Bills D average for the above 5 games: -34.5 pts a game/ 1.8 sacks / 0 INTs avg. a game


Now Wys, tell me again who is more at fault?

[colin]

You are the wost analyst ever Wys.

[Typ0]

Where in your so-called effective analysis does it take into consideration other variables that are correlated with the ones you are trying to make assertions about? How about the one where when the other team can score at will the QB throws more balls to try and stay in the game? You have to be responsible when you make claims about "hard data". It's harder to win games when you are playing from behind Wys which is the real reason behind the 4-1 and 1-4 record you speak about. Granted the games could have been handled differently but this arguement is bunk.

[BillsMan80]

Wys, that pretty much goes for any elite QB in the NFL. I'll post starting QB Records when the QB has to throw 40+ times. In general, no QB will be better than 1 game over .500 most likely.

AFC
Drew Bledsoe: 1-4
Tom Brady: 3-2
Jay Fiedler: 0-1
Chad Pennington: 0-0
Tommy Maddox: 1-1-1
Jeff Blake: 0-1
Tim Couch: 2-1
Jon Kitna: 0-4
Peyton Manning: 2-4
Steve McNair: 1-2
Mark Brunell: 0-2
David Carr: 0-0
Rich Gannon: 4-3
Drew Brees: 3-2
Brian Griese: 1-3
Trent Green: 0-1

NFC
Donovan McNabb: 1-2
Kerry Collins: 1-2
Chad Hutchinson: 0-1
Washington QBs: 1-2
Brett Favre: 2-2
Daunte Culpepper: 0-4
Joey Harrington: 0-5
Jim Miller/Chris Chandler: 0-2
Brad Johnson: 2-2
Aaron Brooks: 1-2
Michael Vick: 0-0-1
Rodney Peete: 0-1
Jeff Garcia: 1-2
Marc Bulger/Kurt Warner: 3-4
Jake Plummer: 3-0
Matt Hasselbeck/Trent Dilfer:0-4

So Wys, goes to show you that not many QBs are sucessful when they do indeed throw that much. There are a few exceptions, and not to mention, our defense didn't help the fact that it was awful to start the year.

[RedEyE]

Originally posted by BillsMan80
Wys, that pretty much goes for any elite QB in the NFL. I'll post starting QB Records when the QB has to throw 40+ times. In general, no QB will be better than 1 game over .500 most likely.

AFC
Drew Bledsoe: 1-4
Tom Brady: 3-2
Jay Fiedler: 0-1
Chad Pennington: 0-0
Tommy Maddox: 1-1-1
Jeff Blake: 0-1
Tim Couch: 2-1
Jon Kitna: 0-4
Peyton Manning: 2-4
Steve McNair: 1-2
Mark Brunell: 0-2
David Carr: 0-0
Rich Gannon: 4-3
Drew Brees: 3-2
Brian Griese: 1-3
Trent Green: 0-1

NFC
Donovan McNabb: 1-2
Kerry Collins: 1-2
Chad Hutchinson: 0-1
Washington QBs: 1-2
Brett Favre: 2-2
Daunte Culpepper: 0-4
Joey Harrington: 0-5
Jim Miller/Chris Chandler: 0-2
Brad Johnson: 2-2
Aaron Brooks: 1-2
Michael Vick: 0-0-1
Rodney Peete: 0-1
Jeff Garcia: 1-2
Marc Bulger/Kurt Warner: 3-4
Jake Plummer: 3-0
Matt Hasselbeck/Trent Dilfer:0-4

So Wys, goes to show you that not many QBs are sucessful when they do indeed throw that much. There are a few exceptions, and not to mention, our defense didn't help the fact that it was awful to start the year.

Nice Billsman80 .

[BillsMan80]

Thanks RE, I figured that those stats would bring up some bottom lines, and they sure did. That only 1 QB in the NFL is more than 1 game over .500 throwing that much, and who is that? Jake Plummer, LOL.

[WG]

Oh you silly antagonists!

More facts!

In the Jets game, the only reason our O did anything was b/c Henry had a huge day.

The first Jet TD was set up by a Bledsoe INT leaving the Jets w/ a 1st and 10 at our own 19 YL.

Early in the 4th Q, on 3rd-and-2, we let Drew throw the ball for an incompletion setting up a blocked punt putting the Jets 1st-and-10 at our own 24 for another FG.

Up by 1, midway through the 4th, our second to last drive stalled b/c we let Drew drop back to pass 4 times resulting in 1 recpt., 2 incompletes, and a sack. Henry had only 2 carries during that time. We were leading!

*****

In the Viking game, we led after the 1st Q! It was tied at the half! Midway thru the 3rd Q, we were up by 3! At 14 min. of the 4th Q, we led by 4! Again at just over 3 minutes, we led by 4!

Henry had 5 carries in the first half, 12 total! No! I don't think that being behind had anything at all to do with it in that one! Sorry, nice try though.

*****

From midway thru the second half we only trailed by 7 pts. 10 minutes into the 3rd Q, we trailed by only 4!

Yet, on the next drive, Henry ran once on 1/15 while Drew went 0-2 resulting in 1 incpl. and 1 sack. Punt!

Henry had 8 carries in the first half. Drew, 11 of 17 for 108 gross, 86 net w/ 3 sacks for 22 yds. in the half.

*****

In the Oakland game, we never trailed by more than 7 points until the 8:00 mark of the 4th Q when Bledsoe tossed an INT for a TD!

The game was tied at:

The beginning of the game;

At 9:48 of the 2nd Q;

6:42 of the 2nd Q;

at the half;

The Bills LED at:

10:10 of the 3rd Q

3:19 of the 3rd Q

Why it got to more than 3, 4, or 7...!!!

Bledsoe tossed an INT for TD at 8:02 of the 4th and then AGAIN at 2:29 in the red zone to effectively end the game for us!

Henry had 5 carries in the first half, 15 total.

*****

In the first N.E. game, Henry had 8 carries in the first half and averaged 5.8 YPC on them!

We were only down by 10 at the half, not a reason to panic! Unless you're KG that is. Perhaps the reason we were down that much was b/c Drew was sacked 4 times in one half and Henry only ran the ball ~ 25% of the time while Drew threw it 75%.

At any rate, Drew only had 64 yards passing thru the first 28 minutes of the second half!!!

On the very last drive from the 4, 1st-and-goal, Drew went incomplete. Then 1st-and-1, incomplete! Then, again, 1st-and-1, incomplete!

The reason we lost that game was exactly b/c we didn't run. We can tag Gilbride for that one!

*****

In the second N.E. game, the reason we went down by more than 10 points to begin with was because Drew threw an INT setting up the Pats 2nd TD at our own 6 YL!

The very next points that N.E. put up came off of another Bledsoe INT, this time on 2nd-and-goal at N.E.'s 1 YL.

In the 3rd Q, we were only down by 10 at 4:15.

*****

So you see, this "we were down and had to throw" bit may be true slightly, but all in all it's crock of crap! And in the few instances where it was in fact true, it was largely b/c of Drew and his own mistakes, NOT b/c the D put us there!

Time for a new "party line!"

[WG]

Originally posted by BillsMan80
Wys, that pretty much goes for any elite QB in the NFL. I'll post starting QB Records when the QB has to throw 40+ times. In general, no QB will be better than 1 game over .500 most likely.

AFC
Drew Bledsoe: 1-4
Tom Brady: 3-2
Jay Fiedler: 0-1
Chad Pennington: 0-0
Tommy Maddox: 1-1-1
Jeff Blake: 0-1
Tim Couch: 2-1
Jon Kitna: 0-4
Peyton Manning: 2-4
Steve McNair: 1-2
Mark Brunell: 0-2
David Carr: 0-0
Rich Gannon: 4-3
Drew Brees: 3-2
Brian Griese: 1-3
Trent Green: 0-1

NFC
Donovan McNabb: 1-2
Kerry Collins: 1-2
Chad Hutchinson: 0-1
Washington QBs: 1-2
Brett Favre: 2-2
Daunte Culpepper: 0-4
Joey Harrington: 0-5
Jim Miller/Chris Chandler: 0-2
Brad Johnson: 2-2
Aaron Brooks: 1-2
Michael Vick: 0-0-1
Rodney Peete: 0-1
Jeff Garcia: 1-2
Marc Bulger/Kurt Warner: 3-4
Jake Plummer: 3-0
Matt Hasselbeck/Trent Dilfer:0-4

So Wys, goes to show you that not many QBs are sucessful when they do indeed throw that much. There are a few exceptions, and not to mention, our defense didn't help the fact that it was awful to start the year.

Yeah, but probably the difference between those teams and us, they were probably really behind and not "make-believe" behind. Also, do please keep in mind that we've thrown Drew voluntarily! I'm sure in most of those situations they truly do it out of necessity b/c they can't possibly win unless they do.

Clearly, based on the info provided in response to the "We had to throw argument", that was clearly not the case for us. When teams are behind by enough that they have to throw, then it makes sense that they usually are going to lose, eh!

But in our case, in spite of how many times its said, it simply isn't true. I've detailed all of that above! So there's a HUGE difference there unless you can prove thru analysis for each one of those QBs that it isn't the case as I did w/ Drew. But I'd wager you a lot that if you did that, you'd see that it was the case, that in 80%+ of those instances, those teams were really down by 14 or more and that those passes had to be made and weren't made by choice when down by 3 or in fact even up!

Keep tryin' though. Nice of you to provide some in-depth analysis for that!

[BillsMan80]

I am not defending our strategy to throw the ball so much, but I am just saying that all the elite QBs will struggle to win throwing 40+ times a game consistently. Heck, Peyton Manning is only 2-4.

[WG]

Re: Wys, losing your mind?

Originally posted by RedEyE
Your stats make sense but contain no content. Here is some more fuel for your fire: Bledsoe is actually 1-5 when he's attempted 40+ times.

NE twice / first game 45x / second 51x

Vikes 49

Denver 41

Raiders 53


Using your own stats, consider this - Wouldn't it make sense that Drew would be throwing more when trailing? Wouldn't it make more sense that his accuracy rating would deplete the more he throws? I don't think that there is a QB in the league that wouldn't expereince the same issues if put in similar situations.

However, to put things into Wys perspective..................................

Bledsoe vs the Pats #1 : 1 TD / 1 INT
Bills D vs the Pats #1 : -38 pts

Bledsoe vs the Vikes: 3TD / 0 INT
Bills D vs the Vikes: -39pts

Bledsoe vs the Broncos: 2 TD / 0 INT
Bills D vs the Broncos: -28 pts

Bledsoe vs the Raiders: 2 TD / 2 INT
Bills D vs the Raiders: -42 pts (I even subtracted the Drew INT for a TD)

Bledsoe vs the Pats #2: 2 TD / 4 INT
Bills D vs the Pats #2: -27 pts

Bledsoe average in the above 5 games: 2TD/ 1.5 INT @ 358.6 yds. avg. a game

Bills D average for the above 5 games: -34.5 pts a game/ 1.8 sacks / 0 INTs avg. a game


Now Wys, tell me again who is more at fault?

Red Eye,

My mind is perfectly in tact! Thanks for checking me though.

This is going nowhere b/c you, and others, can't be honest enough to see that Bledsoe is responsible for some of that. I just painstakingly laid it all out how in several cases we were even ahead when Bledsoe's INTs put us behind and you still deny that! So there's not much more to say. If he's perfect in your eyes, then fine.

Yes, the D wasn't great early on, but Drew's INTs have set the D up horribly at times and he's, personally, the reason why we were behind to begin with at times. That's a FACT! Deny as you will, but it's the truth.

"Bledsoe vs the Broncos: 2 TD / 0 INT
Bills D vs the Broncos: -28 pts"[/b]

28 pts. huh? Did you forget to subtract the 7 that the Broncos returned b/c of Henry's fumble? That's 21! Not too shabby v. Denver.

"Bledsoe vs the Raiders: 2 TD / 2 INT
Bills D vs the Raiders: -42 pts (I even subtracted the Drew INT for a TD)"

That's mighty white of you, but did you figure in that the ENTIRE REASON we were down was b/c of Drew's pick at 8:02 of the 4th returned 81 yards for a TD to put the Raider lead at 11 when it was a perfectly winnable game up until that point? Seems like you conveniently ignored that one!

And oh, but wait, there's more! On the very next drive Drew's "passing prowess, experience, and savvy", was sacked twice for 12 yards and then overthrew Moulds to give the ball right back to Oakland to personally put the nails in our coffin for good at 6:32 of the 4th!

So how again is that the D's fault? You can't expect them to play out of their heads while all we do is pass when Drew throws 3 INTs and gets sacked 5 times.

But, ingore what you will. Drew can be your hero! I'll let you know if the Drew Bledsoe action figures become available. Especially if they come w/ the "Pass-Action Arm!" I'll send ya one for Christmas.

I'm through w/ this argument. It's pretty clear that some of you are simply going to see what you want to see and nothing else. Which is fine, but just don't throw up bogus stats, figures, and info w/o doing some initial research first.

[WG]

Besides, isn't Drew supposed to be better than all of those QBs?

In any event, it should kill the statement that "our chances for winning go up when Drew throws more." That's all. B/c no matte how you slice that, it simply isn't true. Right! :)

[RedEyE]

Wys :bowl:, if your going to make the arguement that Henry should be used more in the offense then Drew, DON"T! Because I agree with that 100%. This team should be built around Henry, not Drew.

However, if you are going to make the arguement that Drew makes no positive impact on this team, DON'T! You can post as many stats as you like and you will never change my mind on the fact that Drew Bledsoe made an immediate impact in Buffalo. Being a life long fan, I never want to go back to the days of QBs like Rob Johnson, and Todd Collins. Bledsoe has a winning arm and will one day even make a believer out of you, just as Travis Henry has.

I remember a time when you preached, and threw up errored filled stats about TH (much like your doing now with Drew). You wanted him out and Bryson to lead the pack. Just as much as you wanted RJ to go out and prove your endless pages of mindless dribble for you. News flash, that never occured. Leave Drew alone.

Whether you tend to believe it or not, without Drew, Henry would not have the same room to run and proabably would have been kept to less then 1000 yards again this season. Gilbride admits to the fact (not to my liking) that he uses the pass to open the run. Without Drew, the Bills would have won less games regardless of how many sack/int/yardage crap stats you list.

In short, rest the keys of your computer and save the your endless typing for a rainy day. You've been wrong a lot this exciting and much improved Bills season, and your chances of being right are not improving. Give it a rest man.