I've been a big fan of PKs going back to the days of Don Chandler, Pat Summerall (yes, that P.Summerall--PK for the Cardinals!), and Pete Gogolak and, as a result, I follow the PK's that I get to see in college a lot more closely than most. And, I have to say that I absolutely loved what I have seen of M.Nugent while he was at Ohio State--I liked him even a tad more than S.Janikowski at the same stage--and I think that the guy can be a real weapon for the NY Jets.
I can also tell you that I don't like R.Lindell: I think that he is a less reliable-in-the-clutch version of Scott Norwood and, because the coaching staff has little confidence in his ability to hit from over 40 yards, I believe that he is, overall, a liability to the team. And, I hope that the Bills will find a suitable replacement for him.
That being said, however, I don't think Nugent was worth a # 1 pick--Jan Stenerud is the only PK that I would ever have rated that high--and, with the Bills' other needs, I don't think he was worth more than a 3rd round pick to them.
Why? Because this was one of the best draft classes in years for PKs and, more importantly, because kicking in the NFL is very different than kicking in college and success on the college level does not necessarily translate to success on the pro level--just ask the team that drafted Steve Little, one of the strongest legged, best PKs to ever come out of college, who flopped as a pro. In addition to the narrower goal-posts and different hash marks, there are things that a PK is asked to do in the NFL that college PKs are not asked to do: as M.Levy points out in his book, the ability to directional kick and to get hang-time on his kickoffs, as well as height and speed, are often more important to the pro PK than getting distance on his kicks. Unless you are sitting there with a stop-watch and able to evaluate the factors that are crucial to success on the pro level, it is pretty hard to know how well even the most successful college PK is going to be able to do in the NFL. That's why spending a high draft pick on a PK is a very risky gamble--even when you are talking about a PK as successful as Nugent was in college.
The question with Nugent, Joe Rheem and some of the other PKs that I really liked coming out in this year's draft is how well and how quickly will they be able to adapt to the additional demands put on them in the NFL. Not many are able to adapt quickly, which is why you often see guys that you never heard of come out of NFLE or free agency to become great PKs in the pros, while other guys who were "automatic" in college fail or become only average PKs in the NFL. The NFL game is so much quicker--particularly in the special teams area--that, even working with a professional coach who knows how to teach what is required of an NFL PK, it can be difficult and take time for a college PK to get to the point where he can be effective as a pro. Some "get it" and some don't and it is very hard to tell which ones will and which ones won't. Now, I'm not saying that Nugent won't become a good PK in the NFL--enough scouts seem to think that he will that I would have to conclude, based on what I have seen of him as well, that he will probably become a pretty good PK. But, will he be in the class of a Vinatieri or Akers, etc.? It's way too early and too hard to tell. Could someone else in this class of PKs end up being better than Nugent? Well, history tells us that that is a very good possibility a couple of years down the road. And, that's why, if your team has other needs to fill, you don't spend that high of a draft choice on a PK, even though the kicking game is as important to a team's success as its defense and offense.
BTW: An example of a PK, who might end up being available as a FA during training camp, that has developed into a much better PK than he was and that I thought he would be is Todd France, from TB, who is currently the leading PK in NFLE. Here are his current numbers:
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1 align=middle><TD>Player</TD><TD>1-19</TD><TD>20-29</TD><TD>30-39</TD><TD>40-49</TD><TD>50+</TD><TD>Total</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>France, T (TB)</TD><TD align=middle>0-0</TD><TD align=middle>4-4</TD><TD align=middle>8-10</TD><TD align=middle>8-11</TD><TD align=middle>2-4</TD><TD align=middle>22-29
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
He is also 14 for 14 on PATs.
The 8-10 from 30-39 yards out could be a matter of concern, but his long distance numbers are pretty decent. He might be worth a look, if he isn't worn out by the end of the NFLE season, if he gets cut by the Bucs. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills are keeping an eye on him at this point.