Success as a first year QB? History says.....

[BidsJr]

I'm sick to death of the pessimists on all of the Bills boards throwing in the towel before the season even starts. My theory is that IF Jonathan Paul is going to be a long term success in this league, there is no reason he can't be a good player THIS year. The following stats are from the QB's second year in the league as far as I can gather.

ELWAY
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1984 den | 15 | 214 380 56.3 2598 6.8 18 15 | 56 237 1

Marino
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1984 mia | 16 | 362 564 64.2 5084 9.0 48 17 | 28 -7 0

Culpepper
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
2000 min | 16 | 297 474 62.7 3937 8.3 33 16 | 90 470 7

Brady
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
2001 nwe | 15 | 264 413 63.9 2843 6.9 18 12 | 36 43 0

Manning
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1999 ind | 16 | 331 533 62.1 4135 7.8 26 15 | 35 73 2

Favre
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1992 gnb | 15 | 302 471 64.1 3227 6.9 18 13 | 47 198 1

McNabb
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
2000 phi | 16 | 330 569 58.0 3365 5.9 21 13 | 86 629 6

Montana
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1980 sfo | 15 | 176 273 64.5 1795 6.6 15 9 | 32 77 2

Esiason
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1985 cin | 15 | 251 431 58.2 3443 8.0 27 12 | 33 79 1

Ken O'Brien
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1985 nyj | 16 | 297 488 60.9 3888 8.0 25 8 | 25 58 0

Kordell Stewert (3rd year but first as a starter + Mularkey as OC)
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1997 pit | 16 | 236 440 53.6 3020 6.9 21 17 | 88 476 11

Tommy Maddux (first year starter in league + Mularkey as OC)
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
2002 pit | 15 | 234 377 62.1 2836 7.5 20 16 | 19 43 0


Bottom line, IF we have our new QB of the future and I hope we do, we could be a good team THIS year. Playoffs are not a longshot. Blew Dreadsoe held us back last year and I think we have a very good year this year.


:mex:

[mysticsoto]

I'm sick to death of the pessimists on all of the Bills boards throwing in the towel before the season even starts. My theory is that IF Jonathan Paul is going to be a long term success in this league, there is no reason he can't be a good player THIS year. The following stats are from the QB's second year in the league as far as I can gather.

ELWAY
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1984 den | 15 | 214 380 56.3 2598 6.8 18 15 | 56 237 1

Marino
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1984 mia | 16 | 362 564 64.2 5084 9.0 48 17 | 28 -7 0

Culpepper
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
2000 min | 16 | 297 474 62.7 3937 8.3 33 16 | 90 470 7

Brady
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
2001 nwe | 15 | 264 413 63.9 2843 6.9 18 12 | 36 43 0

Manning
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1999 ind | 16 | 331 533 62.1 4135 7.8 26 15 | 35 73 2

Favre
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1992 gnb | 15 | 302 471 64.1 3227 6.9 18 13 | 47 198 1

McNabb
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
2000 phi | 16 | 330 569 58.0 3365 5.9 21 13 | 86 629 6

Montana
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1980 sfo | 15 | 176 273 64.5 1795 6.6 15 9 | 32 77 2

Esiason
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1985 cin | 15 | 251 431 58.2 3443 8.0 27 12 | 33 79 1

Ken O'Brien
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1985 nyj | 16 | 297 488 60.9 3888 8.0 25 8 | 25 58 0

Kordell Stewert (3rd year but first as a starter + Mularkey as OC)
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
1997 pit | 16 | 236 440 53.6 3020 6.9 21 17 | 88 476 11

Tommy Maddux (first year starter in league + Mularkey as OC)
Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD
2002 pit | 15 | 234 377 62.1 2836 7.5 20 16 | 19 43 0


Bottom line, IF we have our new QB of the future and I hope we do, we could be a good team THIS year. Playoffs are not a longshot. Blew Dreadsoe held us back last year and I think we have a very good year this year.


:mex:

Hear! Hear! We have too many pessimists on this board. We need to start thinking more optimistic and positively. JP has been working hard both on the field physically, and mentally with the playbook and with Wyche. At the very least, he deserves an A for effort so far. For those of you who are constant pessimists on this board...what more can JP do at this point???

[Yasgur's Farm]

BidsJr (member.php?u=332) :posrep:

[Jan Reimers]

While no one can predict how JP will perform in his first year as a starter, it is very possible for him to have a season comparable to one or more on your list.

JP has done all of the physical and mental preparation - the film watching, playbook studying and the hours of interaction with Sam Wyche - to have a successful debut. If he fails, it will be for some reason other than lack of preparation.

[Jan Reimers]

draz54 -

I like your projected roster with 3 exceptions: I think Gause beats out Ritzmann at DE, Ezekiel makes it as a 7th LB, and Goldsberry starts out on the PS.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

I agree with you Jan that JP could end up having a season comparable to some of the QBs on the list, but I think it will be an up and down year where he will struggle at times.

It is interesting that one of the first QBs on your list is John Elway. I have heard Elway talk a couple of times about his first game in the NFL and how everything was such a blur to him that made so many mistakes that he was pulled from the game at halftime. Yet, he went on to have a decent year and a great HOF career. (BTW: He is one of the QBs that I mention in my post as having talked about have a moment occur when suddenly everything fell into place for him as well.)

That is why I am trying to caution my fellow Bills fans not be either overly pessimistic or optimistic about what they expect or see from JP this season. Your list provides some reasonable comparisons that JP's performance over the course of the season can be judged against when the season is over. Total statistics only tell part of the story, though, because they can't show the ups and downs (such as the game that Elway described) that first year starting QBs typically have until they develop, from experience, to the point of being consistent.

[Yasgur's Farm]

draz54 -

I like your projected roster with 3 exceptions: I think Gause beats out Ritzmann at DE, Ezekiel makes it as a 7th LB, and Goldsberry starts out on the PS.You may be 100% accurate... I don't know enough about Gause and Ezekiel to make that call. As for Goldsberry... I think he has a 50 - 50 shot at back up FB.

[BidsJr]

It is interesting that one of the first QBs on your list is John Elway. I have heard Elway talk a couple of times about his first game in the NFL and how everything was such a blur to him that made so many mistakes that he was pulled from the game at halftime.

Interestingly this happend during Elways rookie season not in his 2nd. Perhaps down the road a good comparison to this would be J.P's first substantial action against New England last year.

[BidsJr]

Total statistics only tell part of the story, though, because they can't show the ups and downs (such as the game that Elway described) that first year starting QBs typically have until they develop, from experience, to the point of being consistent.

Of course! This is exactly why I am optomistic about the upcoming season. I think that if JP performs similar to any of these guys 2nd year he will be substantially better than what we got out of the human flagpole last year. Yes there will be ups and downs! But the bottom line is we have had ZERO consistancy from the QB position since the first 6 games of 2002 (that is of course if you don't count the consistancy of being inconsistant).

With a full year of Willis and Lee, average to slightly above in the consistancy dept. should get us in the postseason.

[Bling]

Hear! Hear! We have too many pessimists on this board. We need to start thinking more optimistic and positively. JP has been working hard both on the field physically, and mentally with the playbook and with Wyche. At the very least, he deserves an A for effort so far. For those of you who are constant pessimists on this board...what more can JP do at this point???

I don't know where you've been, but I haven't seen a pessimistic Bills fan.

[mysticsoto]

I don't know where you've been, but I haven't seen a pessimistic Bills fan.
Just read the board. The Sky begins to fall every few weeks...

[sdbillsfan2]

If the rest if the Bills team goes out and does "the job".....I think JP will do just fine.
I see it like this: Pittsburgh didn't go out thinking thier QB would take them to the SB on his own.They needed 100% effort from and rest of thier team to step up.
If JP can go out there and play mistake free football we'll be ok. I know that won't happen, but I do feel the mistakes that fraustrated us with our most recent QB's will be fewer. Alot of it will depend on Line play and how effective the running game will be. The stats I look at first are wins and losses. It maybe just a gut feeling ,,,,,but I
think we're on the verge of a new era in Bill Football and I like what I see in JP