Statistics are for losers

[Judge]

That axiom has been proven by the spam I've seen on here recently. Statistics can be easily manipulated and taken out of context when used like they've been thrown around here.

The only statistic that matters is this: we're 7-7. Better than last year, but not good enough, because we're missing the playoffs unless the 3 Wise Men see another star in the sky.

So the questions are is these: why are we 7-7? how do we improve?

I don't think anyone can argue that the Bills were done in by a less-than-average to woeful defense. The D simply did not do enough to help this team win, from falling behind early to failing to pressure the QB or create turnover opportunities.

I also don't think anyone can argue that the Bills' offense is dramatically improved. Bledsoe is a Pro Bowl QB and deserves to be- he isn't perfect, but he's been remarkable this season. Travis Henry has emerged as a star-quality RB who's proven himself to be more reliable than in the early part of the season. Result? The makings of a quality attack that will force D's to avoid concentrating on stopping 1 part of the Bills' attack.

How to improve:

- Defense, Defense, Defense. Either figure out a way to put the guys we have here in positions to succeed instead of forcing them into situations where they will fail or get new guys in here who can play the style envisioned by GW.

The D must be upgraded to give the offense a chance of pulling out a win even when Drew isn't perfect or Travis doesn't get 100+ yards.

The offense is fine- more judicious playcalling in certain circumstances may increase efficiency, but overall the offense has delivered in a big way. Anyone who's watched this team this year has to realize that.

[LtBillsFan66]

I agree. Great post Judge.

[Ð]

Wys is tring to port Sabermetrics to football. :D

http://www.80stees.com/images/Lambda_link.jpg

[justasportsfan]

"How TO Improve"

All I thought we had to do was find a way for the Jills to wear skimpy outfits during the winter. J/K.

Good post judge.

[WG]

Judge,

I agree w/ much of that except for that the D didn't do a thing.

I've posed this question several times and do not believe anyone has had the fortitude to step up and answer it. Maybe you can!

Did the D have anything at all to do w/ our win in the:

First Miami game allowing the Phins to only score 10 points? Y or N

The S.D. game last week holding S.D. to only 13 points and Tomlinson, one of the league's top rushers, to barely over 100 yards?

The Detroit game by holding Detroit to 17 points?

Did they do their share in holding the league's #1, at least at the time, offense to only 17 points?

To me, that's 4 games that our D did well. They also played well in the 2nd N.E. game allowing only 10 points that weren't off of our offensive TOs.

It's easy just to say things that are popular, but I don't think your comments about the D are entirely true.

[PA Season Ticket Holder]

I agree with Wy's. If our offense would've kept doing anything close to what it was early in the year we'd be in the playoffs. You can look to the amount of points we've given up but how many of them points were from ST's or TO's that set up gimmie points? Off the top of my head I'd say 75 would be a close number.

[SABURZFAN]

let's not forget that we're strapped with an astronomical figure towards Dead Cap Space too.if not for salary cap hell,we'd be in the position to have a much better defense and special teams.we're fairly a young/new team.TD may have brought in a few veterans,but that doesn't propel us into playoff contention.we were 3-13 last year,up the creek without a paddle,and the laughingstock in the NFL.there isn't too many people laughing these days.when you're a young/new team,you can expect mistakes at crucial times.
TD did a hell of a job to make our offense where it is today.next year,he'll have more money freed up to make the necessary improvements to our defense and special teams.we knew it was going to take a couple years to get through this crap that buthole and the ol' senile ba$tard put us through.the way i see it,we're going to be in good shape for next year.

[Patrick76777]

A few answers for wys!



First Miami game allowing the Phins to only score 10 points? Y or N

- wys, after that game, you were telling everybody that the only reason we won was because they had injuries on the O. Now it's turned into a great performance just in time to reinforce your point. Very nice.


The S.D. game last week holding S.D. to only 13 points and Tomlinson, one of the league's top rushers, to barely over 100 yards?

Standards and expectations must have really changed if holding a running back to "just barely over 100 yards" constitutes having a good day.


The Detroit game by holding Detroit to 17 points?

- best one yet.... laughable almost. hard to imagine us holding the vaunted Lion offense to a mere 17 points.


Did they do their share in holding the league's #1, at least at the time, offense to only 17 points?

Yet another example of how stats lie. You may have missed it by not being in Buffalo, but it was all over the radio at this point in the season. Even EM and PP were talking about it. When we went 5-3 the management realized that we had a shot this year. So they went to a more ball control offense in order to keep the damn defense off the field. It didn't work. Losses to NE, KC and The Jets forced us to go back to the air attack just in time for the Miami game. It's obvious by watching the KC game. Holding them to 17 points? come on wys, we controlled the ball for almost 75% of the game. We ran Henry up their guts all game. This is how you want our O to run right? Too bad we lost.


Hey, I'll be the first to say that our D has improved slightly, but it's still not even close to being where we want it. I just can't see blaming a QB who's putting up the numbers that Drew is. Here's a little secrete for you. Players have bad games. I know that this may be a shocker to you, but it's very true.

You always say that we are blinded and that our mistake is not trying to fix what's wrong with this team. I disagree, almost everybody on this board realizes that we don't have the horses on the D-line to stop the run or pressure the QB, which puts undue pressure on our secondary. Many also believe that we need to change some if not all of our coaching staff. But for me it just goes back to one of my past thoughts. No matter how good you are, the fans will dislike the GM, the Coach and the QB. It's just the way it goes. I'm not going to get into an all day argument with you. I'm going to watch the game, which I don't think we can win but will be hoping anyway. But I'm sure you've got a grade a way to spin this thing. Like, "You're missing my point and NOBODY seems to be able to answer my questions” But nobody can answer your questions because you change them all the time. Anyway, enjoy the game and get used to Bledsoe and Gilbride, they'll be here for a few years, at least they're better then Sheppard and Johnson. Or at least I think they're better. I haven't had a chance to look at the prorated stats of both tandems when compared thru.......awwww never mind.....


Go Bills.

[TacklingDummy]

Originally posted by Patrick76777

First Miami game allowing the Phins to only score 10 points? Y or N

- wys, after that game, you were telling everybody that the only reason we won was because they had injuries on the O. Now it's turned into a great performance just in time to reinforce your point. Very nice.


Ray Lucas won us that game. Not our offense or defense.

[Butch]

It's amazing how WYS diminished the quality of our win again Detroit by stating over and over and over of how bad Detroit was. But now when he finds himself backed into another corner, he says how well our defense was in that game. Another contradition is now added to the list...

I won't even get into the Miami game because Patrick already put the nail in that coffin.

[Typ0]

I would have to say we definately have a big play defense who hasn't been making any plays. There have been times our defense seemed to perform well. Other times we were completely inept...especially with the penalties. If we didn't leave Watson out there to dry so much we probably would have won at least another game. I think we are really close on Defense. Some cap space is going to put us in the playoffs next season.

Judge: I don't agree with your suppositions about statistics at all. Statistical inference is a science with a very well defined structure and it can be very beneficial at times. For example, if I am marketing a widget and I have one competitor anything I can do to predict consumer behavior above and beyond what my competitor does is a competetive advantage in my favor. Even if my predictions are only 10% accurate they are better than a non-prediction by my competitor in most cases. The same idea can be applied to sports. The problem is in general most people who get a hold of statistics have no idea how to use them--how they should be applied and what are their limitations. Hence stats become a vehicle to support peoples opinions instead of supporting decision making. You don't just go out and search for some stats to thow in a report to support your opinions. Proper research methodology defines a problem and engages in statistical research to determine the best solution to the problem. As part of the process you have to look at the data rendered as a whole...not just in parts that support your opinions. There are plenty of analysts out there who know the proper way to run the numbers.