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In the AFC West, according to my preseason rankings, all four teams have a chance to reach the postseason, but most likely only one will make it. What's sure to happen is these teams will score a lot of points.
The AFC North has Pittsburgh (15-1), but Baltimore and Cincinnati helped themselves greatly in the offseason. In the AFC South, two-time defending division champion Indianapolis needs to fend off Jacksonville and Houston. In the AFC East, the Patriots will have another tough schedule and will have to contend with two very good teams -- the Jets and Bills.
Last year, we told you to expect the unexpected from the AFC. Expect the same this year, and try not to be surprised at the end.
The AFC won 44 of 64 interconference games against the NFC last season. I expect the AFC to win a majority again this season, but not by as big a margin.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
New starting quarterback J.P. Losman has a chance to be this year's Ben Roethlisberger. Losman was rated above Eli Manning going into the 2003 college season but he didn't have a good senior year at Tulane. He'll be helped by Bills quarterbacks coach Sam Wyche, who is one of best at developing young passers. Running back Willis McGahee and receivers Eric Moulds and Lee Evans are big-time offensive playmakers, but there are questions about who will play left tackle. Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray coached the league's second-ranked defense in 2004 and will be a head coach one day. Bobby April does a great job with the best special teams in the league.
Miami Dolphins
It's been a busy offseason in Miami. New head coach Nick Saban, who never had a losing record in 11 seasons as a college head coach, takes over with a new staff and new running back, first-round pick Ronnie Brown, who should have a solid rookie season. The Dolphins signed a group of older free agents on defense in Kevin Carter, Vonnie Holliday, Tebucky Jones and Keith Traylor, but rookie cornerback Travis Daniels, a fourth-round pick, could be a surprise and earn a starting role. July 24 could be the big day Ricky Williams returns to the team. He will miss the first four games no matter where he plays, but he will be able to work out and play in preseason games. Miami's offense ranked 29th last season and the team had a minus-17 turnover ratio. Saban can turn it around, but it will take time.
New England Patriots
From the lady who answers the phones to owner Bob Kraft, no one does it better than the New England Patriots. And this year, no one has a tougher schedule to start the season. In the first six weeks, they will play Oakland and San Diego at home and have road games at Carolina, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Denver. The Patriots lost their offensive and defensive coordinators, and Jeff Davidson left to be the offensive line coach in Cleveland. There's also a good possibility Tedy Bruschi, one of the most underrated players in the league, might not play this year after suffering a mild stroke in February. Free-agent signings and the trade for cornerback Duane Starks will help, and, of course, quarterback Tom Brady is a terrific player. The question facing the Patriots is whether the first dynasty of the salary-cap era can continue. I think the answer is yes, as long as coach Bill Belichick and player personnel VP Scott Pioli remain.
New York Jets
The Jets came very close to playing for the AFC championship last season. Curtis Martin became the oldest player to win the rushing title at the age of 31 and he carried the team in the postseason. The Jets need quarterback Chad Pennington to stay healthy in order to take some of the load off Martin. The defense played great last year under new defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson, giving up only 261 points and 30 touchdowns while creating 28 turnovers. Second-year player Adrian Jones needs to come through at right tackle and rookie kicker Mike Nugent needs to have a good season.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
If the Ravens are going to be a factor, they need to improve an offense that ranked 31st in the league last year and scored only 24 touchdowns -- 11 rushing and 13 passing. In contrast, the New England Patriots scored 44 offensive touchdowns. To help the offense, the Ravens made former Giants head coach Jim Fassel offensive coordinator, signed free-agent wide receiver Derrick Mason (96 catches and seven TDs with Tennessee last year) and drafted receiver Mark Clayton. The Ravens should have tight end Todd Heap and running back Jamal Lewis both back healthy this year, but quarterback Kyle Boller needs to keep improving. New defensive coordinator Rex Ryan will run the 46 defense for a unit that ranked sixth overall in '04. Baltimore's toughest out-of-division games (Indianapolis, Green Bay and Minnesota) will all be at home.
Cincinnati Bengals
Last season, the Bengals finished 8-8 for the second successive season. They should be a strong contender for a playoff spot this season. Carson Palmer, in his first year as the starting quarterback, threw 18 touchdown passes and got better as the season went on. On defense, the team improved from previous years but still needs to get better. That was the Bengals' thinking with their first two draft picks, David Pollack and Odell Thurman, who should start and help the defense this year. Cincinnati's kicking game and special teams are above average. The team will play Minnesota, Green Bay, Indianapolis and Buffalo at home.
Cleveland Browns
Everything is new in Cleveland except for the uniforms. The Browns have a new head coach in Romeo Crennel, new coordinators, a new general manager, a new quarterback in Trent Dilfer and a new running back with Reuben Droughns. With Lee Suggs, William Green and Droughns as the options in the backfield, the Browns should be able to run better than in 2004, when they scored only six rushing touchdowns, tied for the fewest in the league. Wide receiver Braylon Edwards, a first-round pick, should be a future star. Crennel will have a hand in improving a rushing defense that ranked last in the league in '04 and gave up 22 touchdowns, the most in the NFL. Randy Lerner is an outstanding owner who will do everything possible to bring the franchise back to its glory days.
Pittsburgh Steelers
What do you do for an encore for a team that went 15-1 with a rookie quarterback? (The 1998 Minnesota Vikings were the last team to win 15 games; they went 10-6 the next season.) The Steelers were ranked No. 1 on defense last year and they return all 11 starters, plus they get Pro Bowl defensive tackle Casey Hampton back after he missed the final 10 games in 2004. Kendall Simmons, a starter on the offensive line in 2003, also returns after missing the entire 2004 season. The Steelers did lose wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who gained 19.9 yards per catch last season, but rookie tight end Heath Miller should be a future NFL star. Pittsburgh plays home games against New England, Jacksonville and Green Bay, plus three tough Monday Night Football games. The Steelers are an outstanding organization from top to bottom.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Entering their fourth year as an expansion team in a tough division, the Texans have some very good young players in place with quarterback David Carr, receiver Andre Johnson, cornerback Dunta Robinson and linebacker Jason Babin. The trade for cornerback Phillip Buchanon should help a pass defense that gave up 32 touchdown passes in 2004 -- only Green Bay (33) allowed more. The Texans are one of the best-run organizations in the NFL, but they face challenges playing in a tough conference.
Peyton Manning is the MVP, but Fred Taylor might hold the key to who wins the AFC South.
Peyton Manning is the MVP, but Fred Taylor might hold the key to who wins the AFC South.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts led the league in 2004 with 522 points, including 66 total touchdowns. Quarterback Peyton Manning did everything in an MVP season that saw him set an NFL single-season record for touchdown passes (49). The Colts had three 1,000-yard receivers last year; also look for tight end Dallas Clark to have a big season in 2005. The offensive line gave up only 14 sacks; the league average was 37. Indy won 12 regular-season games and lost to New England in the playoffs, but to get to the Super Bowl, the Colts need to improve a defense that ranked 29th overall, the worst finish in coach Tony Dungy's career. Their first three draft picks this year were used on defensive players. The defense did help the Colts lead the NFL with a plus-19 turnover margin.
Jacksonville Jaguars
An up-and-coming team, the Jaguars beat Green Bay and Indianapolis last year but lost twice to Houston, which kept them out of the playoffs. They have a good defensive line that got better with the signing of free-agent defensive end Reggie Hayward, who had 10½ sacks with Denver last season. The Jaguars need to improve on offense and they should with quarterback Byron Leftwich entering his third year. First-round pick Matt Jones will play receiver and should be a valuable addition, but running back Fred Taylor had offseason knee surgery and is a question mark. Games in Week 2 at Indianapolis and Week 3 at the Jets will give an idea of how good this team will be.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans hoped to reach the Super Bowl in 2003 and failed, losing a playoff game in New England. The salary cap caught up with them in '04, forcing them to say goodbye to five starters this offseason, including Pro Bowl selections Samari Rolle and Derrick Mason. The good news is Steve McNair, for the first time in years, has been healthy enough to work out the entire spring and is in great shape. This is a very young team that was struck with many injuries in 2004. Seventh-round pick Reynaldo Hill could be the steal of the draft and he could start at cornerback as a rookie for Jeff Fisher, who is a very underrated head coach.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
This is a team that has not met expectations the past few years, even though the Broncos scored 381 points in each of the past two seasons and made the playoffs each time. In 2004, Denver ranked fifth in the league in total offense and fourth in defense. Jake Plummer needs to cut down on interceptions (20 in '04). Former first-rounder Ashley Lelie gained 20.1 yards per catch last season, and Jerry Rice now is his teammate. This team was active in the offseason. It traded for All-Pro punter Todd Sauerbrun and defensive lineman Gerard Warren, and it signed defensive end Courtney Brown, who was the No. 1 overall selection in the 2000 NFL Draft. Denver's first three picks in the 2005 draft were defensive backs.
Kansas City Chiefs
This team gained the most yards on offense in the league last season -- even more than Indianapolis - but it was the only club in the top 10 in total offense that failed to make the playoffs. The Chiefs outscored their opponents 483-435 last season, but also ended up with a minus-9 turnover ratio. They traded for cornerback Patrick Surtain and defensive end Carlos Hall, and signed safety Sammy Knight and linebacker Kendrick Bell to help improve a defense that wound up ranked No. 31 last season. First-round selection Derrick Johnson, a linebacker from Texas, should also help. Kansas City got a big break with its schedule -- New England and Philadelphia have to play at Arrowhead. With Dick Vermeil on the sidelines and Carl Peterson in the front office, this is an extremely well-run franchise.
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders did a great job in the offseason, trading for Randy Moss and signing running back LaMont Jordan. Oakland also has a very good, young offensive line. But the Raiders gave up 442 points and 30 passing TDs in 2004, and wound up ranked 30th overall on defense. The three defensive players they drafted on Day 1 should help. They will travel to the East Coast four times this season, including the season opener at New England and at Philadelphia in Week 3. It would not surprise me to see the Raiders win the AFC West … or finish fourth. They should be involved in lots of high-scoring games.
San Diego Chargers
The Chargers will return all 22 starters from the 2004 team. The 2003 Chargers went 4-12 and had a minus-11 turnover ratio. The 2004 team went 12-4, was plus-15 in turnovers and outscored the 2003 team by 133 points. Due to injury, LaDainian Tomlinson's numbers were down from 2003, but in my estimation he is the most complete player in the NFL -- and he's only 26 years old. Drew Brees is coming off a breakthrough season in which he had 27 touchdown passes against seven interceptions, and a 104.8 passer rating. Antonio Gates set an NFL record for tight ends last season with 13 touchdown catches. San Diego's biggest loss from last season might be offensive line coach Hudson Houck, who went to Miami. However, the Chargers still have Cam Cameron (offense) and Wade Phillips (defense), who are among the best coordinators in the NFL. Not only will the Chargers play a first-place schedule, but six of their games will be played at 1 p.m. ET (that's 10 a.m. on the West Coast), and four of those games will be played on the East Coast (New England, Philadelphia, the Jets and Washington). The other two will be played in two of the loudest stadiums in the NFL -- Kansas City and Indianapolis. On the field, San Diego's biggest challenge will be to improve against the pass -- only Kansas City gave up more passing yards last season. The Chargers' first two draft picks last April were defensive linemen -- Shawne Merriman and Luis Castillo.
Predictions
AFC playoff teams: Buffalo, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New England, Pittsburgh and San Diego
Leading passer: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
Leading rusher: LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
Receptions leader: Randy Moss, Oakland
Rookies of the Year: Ronnie Brown, Miami; Mark Clayton, Baltimore
AFC MVP: Tom Brady, New England
