Running back battle heats up

[The_Philster]

As a member of the Dallas Cowboys for two seasons, ReShard Lee got used to practicing in the Texas heat.

Good thing, too. Because the competition for the backup running back job with the Buffalo Bills is about to heat up.

"Yeah, I imagine it is going to be important," said Lee, trying to downplay the significance of practicing and scrimmaging against the Green Bay Packers today and Friday at Lambeau Field. "You just have to go out there and do what you've prepared to do, perform, and everything else will take care of itself." http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050804/SPORTS03/508040371/1007/SPORTS

[ryjam282]

:up: Good article.

[Meathead]

Four strong candidates? Who wrote that subtitle, the Bills' PR dept?

[mysticsoto]

Four strong candidates? Who wrote that subtitle, the Bills' PR dept?
You haven't even seen what they can do and you are questioning them... :scratch:

[Meathead]

lol.

I'm just very skeptical two undraft FA's and a 7th round pick this last draft will be able to carry the team should McGahee miss significant time (> 2 games).

Even if I did see anything, it wouldn't matter because that wouldn't do me any good. What fans observe in camp means zero. What coaches say in camp means almost zero.

As it is we won't know what happens until McGahee goes out. Based on the few objective facts we have, I'd bet money that the running game would falter pretty badly if McGahee can't play.

On a team loaded with talent and ready for a playoff run, that concerns me.

[Tatonka]

so what is your suggestion, meat?

[Meathead]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if they were to jump on a veteran back that gets released before the season starts. There isn't much out there right now, though. Garrison Hearst is the only half-way decent one available but he's what, 34 or whatever. Tyrone Wheatley is a long shot. But if they're lucky somebody good will get cut and they can jump on them.

[OpIv37]

I agree with Meathead on this one. It's good that there's competition and the players are fighting hard for their opportunity, but the lack of a stand-out gives me serious concerns about the depth behind McGahee. If we're gonna do anything this season, he's going to have to stay healthy. And that's unlikely with our O-line and the amount he will be used.

[feelthepain]

You haven't even seen what they can do and you are questioning them... :scratch:
I think it's a fair statement, you lost one good player in Henry. Your RB depth isn't exactly stout. I'd say RB depth is definetly a weakness for your team this year.

[Meathead]

In my earlier hissy-fit with mystic in another thread I posted this stat:

The average draft position of the primary backup for the top 13 NFL teams is 2.9.

The candidates for the Bills' backup job are

Lee - Undrafted
Williams - Undrafted
Gates - 7th round, rookie
Burns - yeah, right. No way he wins the backup HB job

Can any of these guys end up becoming a solid backup? It's not impossible. But right now it looks like a major long shot.

So if McGahee misses even a single game (the average for starting feature backs is 2-3) the Bills will have some seriously unproven backs trying to pick up the slack.

It's entirely possible that they would only be able to match 50-75% of McGahee's production, meaning that the focus will fall on Losman. That also means opposing defenses won’t have to pay any special attention at all to the running game anymore, allowing them to focus completely on rattling Losman.

In that scenario, even the best defense and special teams in the world would have trouble overcoming a mistake-prone offense.

So if McGahee misses 2 games and none of these “scrubs” overachieves, it’s fair to assume the Bills will lose one of those games. That could easily bump them out of the playoffs (i.e. 10-6 to 9-7). If he misses 3-4 games, not unusual for a feature back, that would virtually doom their season. And of course, any team that misses their feature back for 5 or more games probably wouldn’t make the playoffs anyway regardless.

Virtually every other position on the team could absorb the loss of the starter for 3-5 games and still be competitive. I’m not at all certain we can say the same thing about RB.

[mysticsoto]

lol.

I'm just very skeptical two undraft FA's and a 7th round pick this last draft will be able to carry the team should McGahee miss significant time (> 2 games).

Even if I did see anything, it wouldn't matter because that wouldn't do me any good. What fans observe in camp means zero. What coaches say in camp means almost zero.

As it is we won't know what happens until McGahee goes out. Based on the few objective facts we have, I'd bet money that the running game would falter pretty badly if McGahee can't play.

On a team loaded with talent and ready for a playoff run, that concerns me.

What bothers me is that you say "what they do in camp means zero, what coaches say mean zero", and apparently, where they are drafted means everything? For which then this goes back to the old, there have been plenty of gems either in the low drafts or undrafted at all positions. And RB is probably the easiest position to just come in and do (compared to all the other positions).

And I'd contest that camp means zero...then why do it? What's the point? Why do coaches and trainers spend so much time with the players right now then?

Same with coaches...they get to see the players upfront and are at a better point to make a judgement on a player than any of us is.

But none of that is important - only the fact of where they are drafted. So Priest Holmes must be crap b'cse he was undrafted.

[Meathead]

What I’m trying to say is that what you or I or even a professional sportswriter thinks of somebody in camp means nothing. Every single preseason we get all kinds of news on this scrub and that scrub who “looks great” and then gets cut unceremoniously. All along the coaches are usually saying “oh yeah, he’s doing well” and then … CUT. So we can tell very little by what we see, what we hear, and what we read - it’s virtually meaningless until they actually play in some real games.
In regards to the players potential themselves, it certainly is possible that any or all of them could become effective backups. Possible. But they have zero track record so until they are actually put in that situation of having to start we won’t know whether or not they can do it. Hell, even the coaches can’t possibly know with confidence how any of these guys will perform as a starter because none of them have ever done it (except Burns, who failed in his brief stint).

Of course, that’s true of anybody, but who is more likely to perform when given the chance - a 3rd round pick or an undrafted free agent? Clearly, the higher the draft pick the higher the likelihood they will perform, though that’s far from guaranteed.

If you look at the backup RB’s that are able to come in and keep a team in the playoff hunt when the starter goes down, the profile is usually a guy drafted in rounds 3-5, about 2-3 years experience, and has been touching the ball a few plays a game in at least the season prior. None of the backup candidates on this team come close to that profile - except Joe Burns and he simply will not ever be a primary backup halfback in this league.

Could any of them do it when given the chance? Sure. But we’re talking about gambling with the season if that happens. We need a Davenport or Bettis or L. Johnson or Foster or even Perry on this team, and right now we simply don’t have one.

Since it’s extremely unlikely the Bills’ would even be able to get somebody like that this year, they’ll probably have to settle for an aging back like Hearst or George or Wheatley. I’d feel much more comfortable with one of those old guys if McGahee goes out than the three completely unproven nobodys we have now.

[mysticsoto]

In my earlier hissy-fit with mystic in another thread I posted this stat:

The average draft position of the primary backup for the top 13 NFL teams is 2.9.

The candidates for the Bills' backup job are

Lee - Undrafted
Williams - Undrafted
Gates - 7th round, rookie
Burns - yeah, right. No way he wins the backup HB job

Can any of these guys end up becoming a solid backup? It's not impossible. But right now it looks like a major long shot.

So if McGahee misses even a single game (the average for starting feature backs is 2-3) the Bills will have some seriously unproven backs trying to pick up the slack.

It's entirely possible that they would only be able to match 50-75% of McGahee's production, meaning that the focus will fall on Losman. That also means opposing defenses won’t have to pay any special attention at all to the running game anymore, allowing them to focus completely on rattling Losman.

In that scenario, even the best defense and special teams in the world would have trouble overcoming a mistake-prone offense.

So if McGahee misses 2 games and none of these “scrubs” overachieves, it’s fair to assume the Bills will lose one of those games. That could easily bump them out of the playoffs (i.e. 10-6 to 9-7). If he misses 3-4 games, not unusual for a feature back, that would virtually doom their season. And of course, any team that misses their feature back for 5 or more games probably wouldn’t make the playoffs anyway regardless.

Virtually every other position on the team could absorb the loss of the starter for 3-5 games and still be competitive. I’m not at all certain we can say the same thing about RB.

Man, you are a really pessimistic person.

Let me try to cheer you up. For players who have been in the league for a couple of years, the place at where they were drafted becomes irrelevant. Do you think Brady cares that he was drafted in the 6th round - does it matter now that he has several rings on his finger? You think anyone is saying, "yeah, I have a chance to take Priest Holmes in my fantasy league...but...he was undrafted. I don't know..."

Once you get in, it means you competed with others and WON/EARNED a position on the team. Lee EARNED a position on the Dallas team. If he didn't get along with Parcells and got on his bad side - oh well. But I looked on the Dallas site for news and Lee had a very good showing whenever he was put in. In fact, one article was clamoring and questioning why they weren't putting Lee in more. Any reasons on why he was kept out of games was certainly not due to performance and I give props to the Bills FO for moving quickly and grabbing him. Burns, may not be the most physically gifted - and in fact could get cut (or remain backup FB) by the fact that he is being contested by these others mean these others have enough skill level to challenge someone who's been here and made the team for quite a few years in a row. It means they are a STEP UP if they beat him. Shaud may be small but has worked out big time. I guess you'd have to see him on the field to notice how much he's bulked up. Lastly, the only knock on Gates that I've seen is that he doesn't possess super speed. But everything that I've read and seen myself shows that he has skills in catching, blocking and all the other little things. And by the way, not having super speed, does not mean he is super slow.

Before we raise TH to a degree that makes him sound like no other up and coming RB can approach him, let's remember that he also used to get fumble-itis from time to time and he did not pick up blitzes well (as evidenced by the famous NE rumble over us where Bledsoe was pancaked b'cse Travis went the wrong way).

All 3 backup RBs are better at blocking and picking up the blitz and overall blocking than TH ever was. Lee is probably faster than TH as is Shaud.

Perhaps you will need a preseason game or two to convince you that our backups are not as bad as you think. I look forward to seeing you post your opinions once you've seen them.

[Meathead]

I don't agree at all that I'm pessimistic. I do, however, think I'm realistic and right now the backup situation is just plain shaky. I'll leave it at that.