Strength Of Schedule and the Playoff Race

[Typ0]

I wanted to look at how the strength of a teams schedule plays out in the playoff race. The schedule strength is the average of the win loss percentage of each teams opponent at the time the game was played. Hence it is not the overall win loss percentage of each team being used in the calculation it was the teams performance up to the point in time they played. In a way I am keeping a running total for the strength of schedule instead of just using an opponents overall win loss percentage. This method obviously does not include the game played so I feel it is a bit more descriptive of an opponents strength of schedule and also takes into consideration win streaks and losses .

The second table is the Bills strength of schedule for next years opponents using this years overall win loss percentage. You will notice as the strength of schedule decreases the decile performance increases. This indicates teams with weaker schedules have a greater tendency to make the playoffs. It really brings into question whether or not the best teams are actually in the playoffs. Do the Buccaneers and Bengals records really reflect the quality of those teams? Also notice our next years schedule falls in the top decile utilizing this years win loss percentages.










http://www.billszone.com/images/misc/str.jpg




http://www.billszone.com/images/misc/2003Bills.jpg

[Typ0]

Sorry about running off the page.

[Typ0]

Oh there's a mistake on this chart the Steelers got in not the Rams.

[Typ0]

I kind of wondered why no one responded to this so i'm begging for responses now. This analysis of the bearing of schedule strength on ability to make the playoffs is about as good as you are going to get. These are just numbers but do they tell or story? I regret putting in the wins, losses and ties it's gobbledigook. That's probably why no one paid attention to this.

[Halbert]

Actually, I'd be interested in the spreadsheet. Once you fix the errors email it to me - hard to really read it here.

[Typ0]

This is just a report the data is not in a spreadsheet it is in a database so I had to dump it into the spreadsheet to present it quickly...what you see here is what is in the spreadsheet I did not track each team for the season with this method I used other tools instead of the spreadsheet. Just the same if you would like the file here it is:

SOS (http://www.billszone.com/YourSite/global/nfl/temp/scheduleanalysis.xls)

The only error above is the Rams have a 1 in the playoffs column instead of the Steelers. The change has been made in the file. Everything else is correct. I probably shouldn't have put this up here like this but I was very surprised when I saw these results.

[Bufftp]

Oakland comes in at 18th
and Tampa bay in at 32

It seemed an easier schedule helped the teams. I wonder what the games lost to injuries are in associaton to strength of schedue if their is a correlation? Also I wonder what the history is over the last 10 years. If it hold up the best might not make the playoffs, let alone the SB.

[Ebenezer]

um....according to Jeff Sagarin the Raiders had the 4th hardest schedule this year...would that include playoffs??

[Bufftp]

EB,
Sagarins schedule ratining is not based on win loss, it is based on his rating of the team (at the time the game is played) and location. Different criteria.