Bizarre Preseason Trends.

[Patrick76777]

I saw the guys on the Packer broadcast compare the Packers preseason records to their regular season records. They showed that in years where the Pack only won 0 or 1 preseason games the Pack averaged something like 6.6 regular season wins. And if they won 2 games in went up to 9 wins and if they won 3 or more preseason games the pack was at something like 11 regular season wins.


So I tried it with us. Buffalo fans are funny because when it comes to preseason records we always point to 1990 when we went 0-4 and went to the SB. But I wanted to see if we would have similar numbers. This is what I found.

Since 1978 when the league went to 4 (sometimes 5) preseason games, down from 6, The Bills have won 0 preseason games 5 times. In those 5 seasons, they’ve averaged 7 wins a season. If you take out the 1990 season that average drops to 5.5

Since 1978 the Bills have only won a single preseason game 8 times, in those 8 seasons they averaged 7.75 regular season wins.

In the same time span the Bills have won 2 preseason games 9 times, in those 9 seasons they averaged 9.44 wins. This number includes the 2001 season in which they only had 3 wins. Without this season, the Bills averaged 10.25 wins a season.

And this is where is gets weird. When the Bills win 3 preseason games, which they’ve done 5 times they only average 7 wins a year.

The Bills have never won all 4 preseason games since 1978.

It works until we hit the 3 win mark. So I guess we should aim for 2 wins. Unless we want to go for the great unknown and 4 wins.

I just thought you might think this was cool.

[casdhf]

Good research!!

[Patrick76777]

I saw the guys on the Packer broadcast compare the Packers preseason records to their regular season records. They showed that in years where the Pack only won 0 or 1 preseason games the Pack averaged something like 6.6 regular season wins. And if they won 2 games in went up to 9 wins and if they won 3 or more preseason games the pack was at something like 11 regular season wins.


So I tried it with us. Buffalo fans are funny because when it comes to preseason records we always point to 1990 when we went 0-4 and went to the SB. But I wanted to see if we would have similar numbers. This is what I found.

Since 1978 when the league went to 4 (sometimes 5) preseason games, down from 6, The Bills have won 0 preseason games 5 times. In those 5 seasons, they’ve averaged 7 wins a season. If you take out the 1990 season that average drops to 5.5

Since 1978 the Bills have only won a single preseason game 8 times, in those 8 seasons they averaged 7.75 regular season wins.

In the same time span the Bills have won 2 preseason games 9 times, in those 9 seasons they averaged 9.44 wins. This number includes the 2001 season in which they only had 3 wins. Without this season, the Bills averaged 10.25 wins a season.

And this is where is gets weird. When the Bills win 3 preseason games, which they’ve done 5 times they only average 7 wins a year.

The Bills have never won all 4 preseason games since 1978.

It works until we hit the 3 win mark. So I guess we should aim for 2 wins. Unless we want to go for the great unknown and 4 wins.

I just thought you might think this was cool.



Bump

[THATHURMANATOR]

I don't what I should root for pat!

[Night Train]

Wow. I just remembered. When I drink 4 beers, I rarely turn down a 5th.

This trend thing has merit !

[Dozerdog]

Let's go 4-0.. We have never gone 4-0, but then again, we have never won a Super Bowl either.

[Jan Reimers]

This is really not so much a trend as a set of anomalous results. It simply shows that preseason records mean very little.

[Patrick76777]

This is really not so much a trend as a set of anomalous results. It simply shows that preseason records mean very little.

I don't know. It worked for the packers also. I think the numbers were as follows

0-1 Preseason wins = 6.6 wins
2 Preseason wins = 9.5 wins
3+ Preseaon wins was something like 11.4 wins.


Last year we won our first PS game and lost the next three. That carried over to 4 straight RS losses.

And this is coming from someone who use to bang his shoe on the desk screaming that PS was meaningless.

I'm still not putting a ton into it but there's something to be said for developing a winning attitude.

[G. Host]

I think preseason results have more to do with 3rd string and cut players - players which give more trying to make the roster; a team with good preseason results has good depth but teams which falter in preseason still have time to get those players still on squad ready before needed.

When you have Veteran QBs as backups (Holcomb, Matthews) you will tend to have better results as well so they skew results.

Mobile QBs tend to do better in preseason for teams do not deploy schemes against scrambling QBs like they do during preseasons.