Pats and Bills competing for Colvin?

[itsandthings]

According to the Chicago Tribune:

"Two AFC East clubs--the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots--have interest in Colvin."

The article also talks of the cost:

"Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a source said the Bears' last offer was $13 million over five years. Colvin and McGuire have maintained that an average of $5 million annually would be a nice place to start."

Here is the link:

http://www.suntimes.com/output/bears/cst-spt-biggs31.html


In this article, Colvin's recent shoulder surgery is outlined, and his agent rips the team (doesn't sound like he is returning):

http://www.suntimes.com/output/bears/cst-spt-bear03.html



If the price for Colvin is $5M per season, it is hard to imagine the Pats making a play, given their past history of not paying top money for FA's. However, if the Pats are going to move more towards a predominately 3-4 look, Colvin would give them an OLB to rush the passer (Chris Slade's old role), something they may be willing to pay a premium for. Belichick has stated the team will get younger on defense, and Colvin would allow them to focus on other areas besides LB in the draft.

Like the Bills, the Pats are in excellent cap shape. They likely will release or re-do the contracts of several veteran players with high salaries (Willie McGinest, Anthony Pleasant, Ted Johnson and free-agent bust Donald Hayes), which will put their cap figure at about $63M-$64M after tendering their restricted and exclusive-rights FA (assuming they tender all of them).

[clumping platelets]

Very interesting.....I would think that the Pats, with all those draft picks, could be a player in FA and target one top flight FA like Colvin. His cap number in 2003 will not be unmanageable and his youth certainly justifies the interest. The draft is not really deep when talkin' about LB's, so a premium could be placed on LB'ers in FA.

I prefer Spikes though :)

[Earthquake Enyart]

You quote the Trib, then give links to the Sun Times :huh:

[Fat Tony]

The quote is from the Sun Times article. He just attributed it to the wrong paper.

[itsandthings]

My mistake, I meant the Sun-Times. Thanks for the correction.

Spikes would make more sense for the Bills, given the attacking style of defense they play and their need for a playmaker up front. Spikes is a guy who brings a lot of the same things to the table that Sam Cowart does. The thing you have to worry about is Cincinnati tagging him, which they are fairly certain to do.

I think the Pats would prefer Colvin to Spikes because of his pass-rush skills, which they desparately need. I figure they could either sign Mike Maslowski of Kansas City (they tried to sign him as a RFA last season, but the Chiefs matched) or re-sign Ted Johnson and then move to base 3-4 the majority of the time (they currently play a mix of 3-4 and 4-3 looks, with a heavy dose of sub-packages with funky line-ups).

If so, that would give them a solid LB corps of Vrabel or Colvin at SSLB (Vrabel is an underappreciated player who is very reliable and versatile), Bruschi and Maslowski/Johnson in the middle, and Phifer or Colvin on the WS. That group is pretty versatile as well, since most of those players can play more than 1 LB position (with the exception of Ted Johnson, who is strictly a middle guy).

Another thing that moving to the 3-4 would do is allow the team to move Richard Seymour from NT to more of a Power (TE side) 3-4 DE position (like Pittsburgh's Aaron Smith), where he could take better advantage of his superior athleticism. The Pats would then have to sign or draft a space-eating NT, but that would likely be easier to find than some other positions.

All those changes would allow them to inject more athleticism into their front-7 (badly needed) and moving to the 3-4 would likely shore up their biggest weakness (run defense). That may be why they would be willing to pay more for Colvin, who would provide the pass-rushing OLB that makes the whole thing work. Makes so much sense, it'll probably never happen.

[Earthquake Enyart]

The other Bear players gave Colvin a garbage can full of play money with a Colts logo on it. They are in the running too.

[itsandthings]

I think a lot of teams will be looking at Colvin. Count Arizona in as well, IMO. Arizona currently has the most 2003 cap room in the NFL, with only $37.355M committed to the cap (only 31 players though). They have said they want to be very active in FA and really need to upgrade as suspect defense. Colvin could supply them some sorely needed pass rush.

[jdbillsfan]

If Colvin is looking for at least 5mil a year, what is the price tag for Spikes gonna be?

How do these salaries compare to the top LB salaries in the league?

[Bulldog]

Don't you guys think that it would be more reasonable for the Bills to go after Colvin as opposed to Spikes because of his pass rushing skills. If Buffalo does sign Spikes, then where does the much needed pass rusher come from?

[colin]

I think Colvin is implying that $5 mil per is the top end of the contract (you can't up sell in a negotiation).

If we drop $4.5 per on him, with a nice bonus, we could also do Spikes (he might be like 6 or so) and draft sign a DT. Price could also be resigned. God that would freaking rock.

[Bulldog]

I don't see TD using the cap space to sign two LB's. Buffalo would be better off signing either Colvin or Spikes and the going after some defensive line help.

If Colvin is signed, then TD would probably concentrate on getting some beef in the middle to complement Pat Williams and that in turn would allow London Fletcher to roam the field and use his speed to make plays.

If Buffalo signs Spikes, TD better be looking for some pass rushing ends either via the draft or FA.

[itsandthings]

The Buffalo style of defense brings more pressure from the front line, the DT and DE, like Tennessee. The Patriots actually play more of a gap-control style of defense where they bring pressure more from the LB and secondary.

For comparison, here are some of the big LB contract recently signed:

Jeremiah Trotter: 7 Yrs/$35M, $7M SB.

Ray Lewis: 5 Yr Extension/$7.8M average, $10M SB.

Peter Boulware: 6 Yr Extension/$6.2M average, $7M SB.

Dexter Coakley (2001): 6 Years/$3.3M average, $5.5M SB.

Sam Cowart is a comparable, but his contract had a split bonus due to his injury questions. He received a $1.8M SB last year, but could receive an option bonus of up to $6M this year depending on incentives from his play in 2002. I think the option bonus will end up being around $4.5M based on his play, but that isn't certain this year. His deal will likely end up being about a 6 Yr/$30M deal with a $6.3M split bonus.

Granted, Colvin isn't likely to be in the Lewis/Boulware class, but 5 Yrs/$5M SB doesn't seem out of range given his skills as a pass rusher (teams pay guys that can rusht the passer). Spikes will likely cost closer to Boulware/Lewis, if he isn't franchised (which seems likely).

[lordofgun]

Originally posted by Bulldog
I don't see TD using the cap space to sign two LB's. Buffalo would be better off signing either Colvin or Spikes and the going after some defensive line help.

If Colvin is signed, then TD would probably concentrate on getting some beef in the middle to complement Pat Williams and that in turn would allow London Fletcher to roam the field and use his speed to make plays.

If Buffalo signs Spikes, TD better be looking for some pass rushing ends either via the draft or FA.

Good stuff Bulldog! Welcome to the Zone!

[HenryRules]

I agree with the posters who've said that getting both Spikes and Colvin is out of the question ... it looks like there could be a few OLBs available when we pick in the draft so I think it'd be more prudent to sign one of Spikes/Colvin and a DT or Price before the draft and try to get our second OLB there. If none falls to us in the second round, we can sign a stopgap player (like Favors perhaps) while still having the upgrades at WR/DT and OLB. Signing both OLB's limits our ability to solve all these problems I think.

[Akhippo]

I say why not get two attacking style LBs. If they are better than any of the DEs out there, why not? Colvin rushes the passer. We run an attacking style of D anyway, so its not like we need a old Bruce Smith type, who could single handedly cause havoc. Either way two stud D players are needed. One being a backer, the other on the line. Luckily LB is a deep position in FA.