justasportsfan
09-07-2005, 08:01 AM
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=2854&cat=3
There’s nothing too shocking about the projections for our first division, the AFC East, except perhaps that the Miami defense only projects to be average. New England comes out the best team, but not by as much as last year, and standard deviation says that Buffalo is the hardest team to project accurately. You might be surprised that New York’s offense is so high and its defense so low if you don’t either a) own a copy of Pro Football Prospectus or b) read our website regularly. It’s one of those subjects that gets beaten to death around here. According to average DVOA of opponent, four of the eight hardest schedules in the NFL are in this division, and the other four are in the AFC West. Of course, those two divisions play each other this year, plus the AFC East plays the NFC South which is probably the best division in the other conference (especially if we are wrong about Atlanta).
There’s nothing too shocking about the projections for our first division, the AFC East, except perhaps that the Miami defense only projects to be average. New England comes out the best team, but not by as much as last year, and standard deviation says that Buffalo is the hardest team to project accurately. You might be surprised that New York’s offense is so high and its defense so low if you don’t either a) own a copy of Pro Football Prospectus or b) read our website regularly. It’s one of those subjects that gets beaten to death around here. According to average DVOA of opponent, four of the eight hardest schedules in the NFL are in this division, and the other four are in the AFC West. Of course, those two divisions play each other this year, plus the AFC East plays the NFC South which is probably the best division in the other conference (especially if we are wrong about Atlanta).