3rd down breakdown (offense)

[Ickybaluky]

Yesterday I posted the Bills biggest problems revolved around 3rd downs on both sides of the ball. Basically, they are not converting at a good enough rate and aren't stopping the other team from converting enough.

I wanted to provide more detail, but it will take some time. I finished the offense, I'll probably do the defense tomorrow.

I think the results are pretty interesting:

Here is the offensive breakdown running on 3rd down:
<table>
<tr><th>Game</th><th>Needed</th><th>Gained</th><th>Success</th><th>Player</th></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td>McGahee</td></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td>McGahee</td></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>15</td><td>6</td><td>N</td><td>Losman</td></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>6</td><td>2</td><td>N</td><td>Williams</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>1</td><td>12</td><td>Y</td><td>McGahee</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>14</td><td>19</td><td>Y</td><td>Losman (Fumble)</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>2</td><td>3</td><td>Y</td><td>Losman</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>4</td><td>8</td><td>Y</td><td>McGahee (TD)</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>4</td><td>1</td><td>N</td><td>Smith</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td>McGahee</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>6</td><td>5</td><td>N</td><td>Williams</td></tr>
</table>

Notes:

- Overall, a 4-for-11 conversion rate (36.4%) running the ball.

- On 3rd and 3 or less, the Bills converted 2-of-5, which isn't getting it done.

- McGahee converted only 2-of 5, and curiously none of his short-yardage (0-for-3) attempts. The OL is probably a big part of the issue in those situations.

- Shaud Williams and Freddy Smith were a combined 0-for-3, although none was a short yardage situation.

- Losman coverted 2-of-3 with his legs, but fumbled once at the end of a play. That isn't unexpected since the kid is a threat running the ball. Makes you wonder if there should be more QB draws on 3rd downs.


Here is the offensive breakdown passing on 3rd down:
<table>
<tr><th>Game</th><th>Needed</th><th>Gained</th><th>Success</th><th>Note</th></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>6</td><td>8</td><td>Y</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>10</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>7</td><td>3</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>5</td><td>10</td><td>Y</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>10</td><td>8</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>7</td><td>-6</td><td>N</td><td>Sack</td></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>10</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td>Penalty-Grounding</td></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>6</td><td>7</td><td>Y</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>9</td><td>4</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>8</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>7</td><td>-4</td><td>N</td><td>Safety</td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>7</td><td>11</td><td>Y</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>8</td><td>Y</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>9</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>10</td><td>-1</td><td>N</td><td>Holcomb</td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>6</td><td>7</td><td>Y</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>10</td><td>30</td><td>Y</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>9</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>22</td><td>6</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>10</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>6</td><td>17</td><td>Y</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>3</td><td>-9</td><td>N</td><td>Sack</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>6</td><td>12</td><td>Y</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td>N</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>6</td><td>-16</td><td>N</td><td>Sack</td></tr>
</table>

To summarize:

- Overall, a 9-for-31 conversion rate (29.0%) passing the ball. However, on 3rd-and-6 or less the Bills converted 7-for-13 by passing, a stellar 53.8% conversion rate. The Bills are getting themselves in trouble because they are getting in bad situations on 3rd down.

Pretty ugly. I would conclude:

- The Bills are supposed to build around the running game like Pittsburgh did last year to protect the QB, but they are getting in too many long 3rd down situations. Of the 42 3rd downs documented over 3 games, 34 have been 3rd-and-4 and longer. That isn't helping the young QB.

- The Bills have had trouble converting short-yardage thus far, especially running the ball. Maybe they should run play-action more often in those situations, especially since Losman has done best in those situations.

- However, they have had success overall when the distance wasn't too great on 3rd down. Combined, the Bills converted 10-of-25 (40%) on 3rd-and-6 or less. That number is much better than their overall 31% conversion rate, and would probably be a little better if they converted more 3rd-and-3 or less situations.

- Their biggest issues have been in 3rd-and-7 or longer. They only converted 3-of-21 in those situations. However, that situations puts a lot of pressure on their young QB, and their best bet is avoiding them by doing a better job on early downs.

- I think Losman is taking way too much of the blame. He definitely has struggled, but he actually has done a pretty good job throwing the ball on 3rd-and-short-to-medium. His biggest problem is being in too many difficult to convert situations, something the Steelers protected Ben Roethlisberger from last year to a great extent. The Bills are supposed to follow the Steelers model in bringing along Losman, but so far they have not been able to support him the same way.

[Kerr]

:up:

I do think that the coaching staff shares part of the blame for Losman's troubled start. I agree with what you said about following the Steelers philosophy with young qb's. Big Ben was carried on the run game. Without the run game they had, he would never have been as successful. However, Losman does not need to be pampered. I think he knows he needs to play better and make those throws that he overthrew. I think Losman should be given a few more games to back it up. If he fails, then the starting role needs to be handed to Holcomb, while Losman sits and learns. It's already been made known public by Mularkey, that the season won't be given up on for a learning young qb.

[Nic82]

Great analysis! I agree the Bills need improve play calling and execution on early downs to reduce their number of 3rd and long situations.

[DaBills]

Good look at the breakdown of what's occurring, but we need to look further at the specific type of run or pass they're calling that fail. From the numbers, whether 3rd and 1 or 3rd and longer, there seems to be no ryhme or reason as to what play works.

From watching, the failure on 3rd and short with the run occured when they ran right and got stopped, yet they were totally dominating off left tackle on previous plays. Or on 3rd and short in the red zone and they fail on a pass. But usually that pass was a high-risk shot at the endzone when maybe they should've tried a lower-risk screen and just get the first down.

Overall, I think they are trying to make huge gains on a lot of plays instead of focusing on getting the first down and sustaining drives. Too many times they follow-up 2nd and long with another pass that fails, then they have to punt. We need to average 4 yards a down, not 17 yards at once every two series.

[colin]

the reason we suck on third down is because we always get to third down, we never get a first on first and second.

this is because losman can't hit an open WR, so the D just has to worry about short routes and the run, although we are good enough running that we can usually get something done.

we throw more bad balls on first and second than i have ever seen from a bills team. open WRs are not a threat because losman won't see them and if he does see them he is not likely to hit them.

I'd like to see how many passes he tries to the short man or outs to the right hand side. he misses wide open short guys on a regular basis.

you can look at the fact that we have converted a few of our easy 3rd downs and say one thing, but 75 gross yards passing and less than 45% completion against a team with a second string secondary is terrible, especially when you are running very effectivly.

anthony wright, the poor back up for the baltimore ravens, has more yards than JP, and he has played 2 games for the hapless ravens.

the only starting player with less yards is David Carr.

[BillsFever21]

Your bf Bledsoe had about 3 games last year with under 100 yards passing. He only had maybe 2 games with over 200 yards passing.

[Ickybaluky]

Not only that, but Ben Roethlisberger only had 5 games last year where he threw for 200 yards or more. He only averaged 175 yards passing a game.

Losman doesn't need to pass for a lot of yards for the Bills to win, in fact I would say it is not a good sign if he is passing a lot. He does need to be efficient and convert on 3rd down.

Granted, he hasn't done that, but he also hasn't been put in a lot of favorable situations. That is my point.

[rsmithgi]

Your bf Bledsoe had about 3 games last year with under 100 yards passing. He only had maybe 2 games with over 200 yards passing.

Uh, not quite. He had 2 games with less than 100 yds passing but one of those was a blowout win. One game with 100 yds passing in another blowout win. He had 5 games with over 200 yds including games with 275 and 277.

[The last buffalo fan]

Not only that, but Ben Roethlisberger only had 5 games last year where he threw for 200 yards or more. He only averaged 175 yards passing a game.

Losman doesn't need to pass for a lot of yards for the Bills to win, in fact I would say it is not a good sign if he is passing a lot. He does need to be efficient and convert on 3rd down.

Granted, he hasn't done that, but he also hasn't been put in a lot of favorable situations. That is my point.

There is a big mistake, your are a pats fan!!!!

Seriously, great great work, thank you so much. Also and I said before, your football knowledge is excellent, and you are pretty good poster. I'll be happy if you change your mind sometime in the future, and you would be welcome to our team( just kidding).

Thank you.

[ShadowHawk7]

Post of the Week. :posrep:
Someone sneak this under Tom Clements pillow tonight. Looking forward to seeing the defensive analysis.