Yesterday I posted the Bills biggest problems revolved around 3rd downs on both sides of the ball. Basically, they are not converting at a good enough rate and aren't stopping the other team from converting enough.
I wanted to provide more detail, but it will take some time. I finished the offense, I'll probably do the defense tomorrow.
I think the results are pretty interesting:
Here is the offensive breakdown running on 3rd down:
Notes:
- Overall, a 4-for-11 conversion rate (36.4%) running the ball.
- On 3rd and 3 or less, the Bills converted 2-of-5, which isn't getting it done.
- McGahee converted only 2-of 5, and curiously none of his short-yardage (0-for-3) attempts. The OL is probably a big part of the issue in those situations.
- Shaud Williams and Freddy Smith were a combined 0-for-3, although none was a short yardage situation.
- Losman coverted 2-of-3 with his legs, but fumbled once at the end of a play. That isn't unexpected since the kid is a threat running the ball. Makes you wonder if there should be more QB draws on 3rd downs.
Here is the offensive breakdown passing on 3rd down:
To summarize:
- Overall, a 9-for-31 conversion rate (29.0%) passing the ball. However, on 3rd-and-6 or less the Bills converted 7-for-13 by passing, a stellar 53.8% conversion rate. The Bills are getting themselves in trouble because they are getting in bad situations on 3rd down.
Pretty ugly. I would conclude:
- The Bills are supposed to build around the running game like Pittsburgh did last year to protect the QB, but they are getting in too many long 3rd down situations. Of the 42 3rd downs documented over 3 games, 34 have been 3rd-and-4 and longer. That isn't helping the young QB.
- The Bills have had trouble converting short-yardage thus far, especially running the ball. Maybe they should run play-action more often in those situations, especially since Losman has done best in those situations.
- However, they have had success overall when the distance wasn't too great on 3rd down. Combined, the Bills converted 10-of-25 (40%) on 3rd-and-6 or less. That number is much better than their overall 31% conversion rate, and would probably be a little better if they converted more 3rd-and-3 or less situations.
- Their biggest issues have been in 3rd-and-7 or longer. They only converted 3-of-21 in those situations. However, that situations puts a lot of pressure on their young QB, and their best bet is avoiding them by doing a better job on early downs.
- I think Losman is taking way too much of the blame. He definitely has struggled, but he actually has done a pretty good job throwing the ball on 3rd-and-short-to-medium. His biggest problem is being in too many difficult to convert situations, something the Steelers protected Ben Roethlisberger from last year to a great extent. The Bills are supposed to follow the Steelers model in bringing along Losman, but so far they have not been able to support him the same way.
I wanted to provide more detail, but it will take some time. I finished the offense, I'll probably do the defense tomorrow.
I think the results are pretty interesting:
Here is the offensive breakdown running on 3rd down:
Game | Needed | Gained | Success | Player |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 3 | 0 | N | McGahee |
1 | 1 | 0 | N | McGahee |
1 | 15 | 6 | N | Losman |
1 | 6 | 2 | N | Williams |
3 | 1 | 12 | Y | McGahee |
3 | 14 | 19 | Y | Losman (Fumble) |
3 | 2 | 3 | Y | Losman |
3 | 4 | 8 | Y | McGahee (TD) |
3 | 4 | 1 | N | Smith |
3 | 1 | 0 | N | McGahee |
3 | 6 | 5 | N | Williams |
Notes:
- Overall, a 4-for-11 conversion rate (36.4%) running the ball.
- On 3rd and 3 or less, the Bills converted 2-of-5, which isn't getting it done.
- McGahee converted only 2-of 5, and curiously none of his short-yardage (0-for-3) attempts. The OL is probably a big part of the issue in those situations.
- Shaud Williams and Freddy Smith were a combined 0-for-3, although none was a short yardage situation.
- Losman coverted 2-of-3 with his legs, but fumbled once at the end of a play. That isn't unexpected since the kid is a threat running the ball. Makes you wonder if there should be more QB draws on 3rd downs.
Here is the offensive breakdown passing on 3rd down:
Game | Needed | Gained | Success | Note |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 6 | 8 | Y | |
1 | 10 | 0 | N | |
1 | 6 | 0 | N | |
1 | 7 | 3 | N | |
1 | 5 | 10 | Y | |
1 | 10 | 8 | N | |
1 | 7 | -6 | N | Sack |
1 | 10 | 0 | N | |
1 | 2 | 0 | N | Penalty-Grounding |
1 | 6 | 7 | Y | |
2 | 9 | 4 | N | |
2 | 4 | 0 | N | |
2 | 8 | 0 | N | |
2 | 7 | 0 | N | |
2 | 7 | -4 | N | Safety |
2 | 2 | 0 | N | |
2 | 7 | 0 | N | |
2 | 7 | 11 | Y | |
2 | 4 | 8 | Y | |
2 | 9 | 0 | N | |
2 | 10 | -1 | N | Holcomb |
2 | 6 | 7 | Y | |
2 | 10 | 30 | Y | |
2 | 9 | 0 | N | |
3 | 22 | 6 | N | |
3 | 10 | 0 | N | |
3 | 6 | 17 | Y | |
3 | 3 | -9 | N | Sack |
3 | 6 | 12 | Y | |
3 | 7 | 0 | N | |
3 | 6 | -16 | N | Sack |
To summarize:
- Overall, a 9-for-31 conversion rate (29.0%) passing the ball. However, on 3rd-and-6 or less the Bills converted 7-for-13 by passing, a stellar 53.8% conversion rate. The Bills are getting themselves in trouble because they are getting in bad situations on 3rd down.
Pretty ugly. I would conclude:
- The Bills are supposed to build around the running game like Pittsburgh did last year to protect the QB, but they are getting in too many long 3rd down situations. Of the 42 3rd downs documented over 3 games, 34 have been 3rd-and-4 and longer. That isn't helping the young QB.
- The Bills have had trouble converting short-yardage thus far, especially running the ball. Maybe they should run play-action more often in those situations, especially since Losman has done best in those situations.
- However, they have had success overall when the distance wasn't too great on 3rd down. Combined, the Bills converted 10-of-25 (40%) on 3rd-and-6 or less. That number is much better than their overall 31% conversion rate, and would probably be a little better if they converted more 3rd-and-3 or less situations.
- Their biggest issues have been in 3rd-and-7 or longer. They only converted 3-of-21 in those situations. However, that situations puts a lot of pressure on their young QB, and their best bet is avoiding them by doing a better job on early downs.
- I think Losman is taking way too much of the blame. He definitely has struggled, but he actually has done a pretty good job throwing the ball on 3rd-and-short-to-medium. His biggest problem is being in too many difficult to convert situations, something the Steelers protected Ben Roethlisberger from last year to a great extent. The Bills are supposed to follow the Steelers model in bringing along Losman, but so far they have not been able to support him the same way.
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